Auston Matthews has more goals and a higher gpg than Ovechkin age for age. And the gap is about to grow. Can he also make a run at 894?

[MadLuke]

7 seasons vs 7 seasons

The arbitrary is obviously about the 50 goals mark, making a big difference between scoring 49 and 50 is obviously arbitrary, change the mark for 40 and you change the result, change it for 51 you change the result.

And can we call a 56 games covid season a complete season ?

 

[Thenameless]

Pretty clearly the best and greatest. Any raw total things are just era dependent.

Lemieux was a better goal scorer. Gretzky is still the greatest, with his 50 in 39, highest one season total, and highest career total. If Ovechkin passes Gretzky's career total, I'll give him the crown then.

 

[Rpenny]

Who scored more goals in their 1st 7 complete seasons? Math is basically simple in this case. The people who have problem with this math are the ones going what if to defend their position. I could go thst 8th for Ovie? He could have gotten 60 to 70 goals is there was no strike that year. We have what is called hard data.

Whenever anyone uses the whatever per game stat they do not want to talk about the actual stats but the what if stats. We have 7 hard stat years to compare for the answer.

 

[Thenameless]

Ovechkin aged very, very well as a goal scorer, with multiple 50 goal seasons when a lot of players have already retired. Matthews has shown himself to be much more injury prone in what should be his prime physical years. That does not bode well for a guy chasing eight or nine hundred career goals.

 

[MadLuke]

Whenever anyone uses the whatever per game stat they do not want to talk about the actual stats but the what if stats. We have 7 hard stat years to compare for the answer.

The thread is 100% what if projection about the future of a player that has both more goals at a better goal per game at the same point of someone else career age wise.

Wondering if it could be possible for him to keep track in the future and try to beat the record, the league being quite higher scoring that what Ovechkin had to play in being quite likely helping.

Without what if where they were after 7.5 seasons, Ovechkin had 371 goals, Matthews 339 goals, but it seem that the age comp here is not less relevant considering we are trying to predict total scoring goals.

Both the per season, at that age and per game seem valuable info for the what if question of the thread, I am not sure how actual stats could answer it, it is speculation we are in big what if territory by purpose here.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Don't sweat it, MadLuke. Those two people aren't making any sense. Not that what they're saying is a lie or even necessarily wrong...but it's just...somehow not...relevant (?) despite the proximity to the subject matter...

When someone gives you a list of seven numbers in a list and then asks how many are greater than 50...you kind of know that you're about to have a very unproductive area of discussion haha

 

[authentic]

I wonder how many players historically compared to Matthews as an even strength goal scorer? He has to be top 5 there at this point in his career

 

[seventieslord]

Only players I can find with 4+ ES goal titles: Richard, Howe, Hull, Gretzky, Ovechkin, Matthews. If there's anyone else, I can't find him. Not Espo, not Lemieux, not Conacher, not Lafleur, not Stamkos, not Brett, not Beliveau.

 

[MadLuke]

I have the same list, only 2 other with 3 or more:

Bobby Hull*	6​
Auston Matthews	5​
Alex Ovechkin	5​
Maurice Richard*	5​
Wayne Gretzky*	4​
Gordie Howe*	4​
Jaromir Jagr	3​
Brett Hull*	3​

Matthews 5th is the yet to be finished 2023-2024, he has 4 has of yet.

 

[authentic]

I have the same list, only 2 other with 3 or more:

Bobby Hull*	6​
Auston Matthews	5​
Alex Ovechkin	5​
Maurice Richard*	5​
Wayne Gretzky*	4​
Gordie Howe*	4​
Jaromir Jagr	3​
Brett Hull*	3​

Matthews 5th is the yet to be finished 2023-2024, he has 4 has of yet.

That’s in their entire careers or after age 26 seasons?

 

[MadLuke]

That’s in their entire careers or after age 26 seasons?

Entire career, just used the consolidate Excel function on :

NHL & WHA Yearly Leaders and Records for Even Strength Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

NHL & WHA Yearly Leaders and Records for Even Strength Goals

www.hockey-reference.com

Even if 26 or less was common here, some were done quite old, Richard did it (32-33), Ovechkin 34 as well.

 

[The Panther]

Entire career, just used the consolidate Excel function on :

NHL & WHA Yearly Leaders and Records for Even Strength Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

NHL & WHA Yearly Leaders and Records for Even Strength Goals

www.hockey-reference.com

It's bizarre that Frank Mahovlich led the League in ES goals twice, and Mario only once.

Also, I did not realize that Lanny McDonald scored more ES goals than Gretzky in 1983.

Finally, what the hell is Wayne Babych doing on that list?

 

[Michael Farkas]

Babych took advantage of a weak league. In fact, most of that St. Louis team was built for that era it seems and had almost no staying power.

Babych ES scoring leader in '81 at age 21. Stopped being a regular in '86, out of the league in '87 at age 28.

Blake Dunlop - 7th in assists in '81. He was only an NHL regular from '79 to '84 across a number of organizations.

Jorgen Pettersson - career best 73 points in 62 games in his first season (age 24)...out of the league at 29.

Mike Zuke - Only an NHL regular from '80 to '84.

Perry Turnbull - 10th in ES goals in '82 at the age of 22, stopped being an NHL regular in '87 at age 27.

Tony Currie - nearly a point per game in '81 at age 23, out of the league in '85 at age 27.

Joe Micheletti - top pair here, out of the league within 18 months. Basically the same deal for Jack Brownschidle...

I'll hold it there, as that's just the top half of the roster...I'm sure the bottom is an ugly sight too.

Maybe I'll make this team a point to watch next...because a lot of these guys got some voting consideration for awards at the end of the year, they finished 1st with 107 points. Only for it take a 5th game and double OT to beat the .456 Penguins in the prelim round. Then losing in 6 to the .463 Rangers the next round.

They weren't close to that level of regular season success on either side of that season (~30 points worse in '80 and '82).

I always say, "weird stuff happens in bad league years..." but man, this is weird...

 

[Boxscore]

Only players I can find with 4+ ES goal titles: Richard, Howe, Hull, Gretzky, Ovechkin, Matthews. If there's anyone else, I can't find him. Not Espo, not Lemieux, not Conacher, not Lafleur, not Stamkos, not Brett, not Beliveau.

Remarkable. For both Matthews and that Mario isn't on there.

 

[MadLuke]

Remarkable. For both Matthews and that Mario isn't on there.

New Jersey Devils vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Box Score: December 31, 1988 | Hockey-Reference.com

Get the latest box score updates on the New Jersey Devils vs. Pittsburgh Penguins game played on December 31, 1988 on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. New York Rangers Box Score: April 9, 1993 | Hockey-Reference.com

Get the latest box score updates on the Pittsburgh Penguins vs. New York Rangers game played on April 9, 1993 on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Montreal Canadiens Box Score: January 26, 1997 | Hockey-Reference.com

Get the latest box score updates on the Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Montreal Canadiens game played on January 26, 1997 on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

He had 4 non PP goals from time to time too, but all with some shorthanded or penalty shot it seems to break the ES streak on the obvious season to check for him.

 

[authentic]

On pace for the third best adjusted goal total of all-time

Brett Hull 78
Matthews 74
Ovechkin 72

 

[daver]

Thru their first 8 seasons, it is almost a dead heat in terms of goals scored and GPG dominance vs. their respective peers.

One advantage Matthews has is scoring is up and shows no signs of going down while OV had a few years of DPE 2.0. This bodes well for Matthews' prime.

Hard to beleive that Matthews can match Ovechkin's Howe-like goalscoring longevity though.

 

[seventieslord]

Matthews 5th is the yet to be finished 2023-2024, he has 4 has of yet.

If Matthews gets injured for the season right now, and everyone maintains their pace, he'd be 4th. He's just two ESG away from being on pace to tie MacKinnon's pace for a tie for 1st. Crazy. We're only at game 54.

 

[MadLuke]

If Matthews gets injured for the season right now, and everyone maintains their pace, he'd be 4th. He's just two ESG away from being on pace to tie MacKinnon's pace for a tie for 1st. Crazy. We're only at game 54.

2023-2024 Matthews 35 EVG is a Top 15 seasons in the 2000s in that regard already.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

2021-2022-2024 Matthews scoring pace at even strenght have been the best since 2009-2010, #2-3-4 only behind 2011 Crosby shortened 41 games season.

When scoring 40 could with that really low for him shooting% be a career low for you, that a bit Ovechkinian.

He is completely alone in that category:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Since 2010:

Matthews: 1.65
Verhaghe: 1.26
Pastrnak: 1.26
Vrana: 1.21
Boldy: 1.18
Ovechkin: 1.17

 

[WarriorofTime]

2023-2024 Matthews 35 EVG is a Top 15 seasons in the 2000s in that regard already.



2021-2022-2024 Matthews scoring pace at even strenght have been the best since 2009-2010, #2-3-4 only behind 2011 Crosby shortened 41 games season.

When scoring 40 could be a career low for you, that a bit Ovechkinian.

The question ultimately becomes, will the rest of his career be "Ovechkian" or "Stamkosian"?

 

[seventieslord]

The way I read Stamkosian, it rhymes with Bogosian. Am I saying it right?

 

[Hippasus]

Do you strongly believe that Weiland 43 goals narrow win :
Goals

1.	Cooney Weiland* • BOS	43
2.	Dit Clapper* • BOS	41
3.	Howie Morenz* • MTL	40
4.	Nels Stewart* • MTM	39

Outscoring the average elite pack by 7.5%

Should Adjust higher than Gretzky getting close to 90 when no one hit 60 like this ?
Goals

1.	Wayne Gretzky* • EDM	87
2.	Michel Goulet* • QUE	56
3.	Glenn Anderson* • EDM	54
	Tim Kerr • PHI	54

Outscoring the average elite pack by 59%


If so fair enough, but it should be obvious that it does not require one to be in denial to find it a bit funny.

Brett Hull had 86 in 90-91 while second was a three way tie at 51 (Fleury, Neely, Yzerman).

 

[Johnny Engine]

The way I read Stamkosian, it rhymes with Bogosian. Am I saying it right?

Turning a Greek name into an Armenian name would be the orthodox thing to do in this situation.

 

[bobholly39]

The question ultimately becomes, will the rest of his career be "Ovechkian" or "Stamkosian"?

I often use the expression "falls off a cliff" in play. I like Stamkos a lot as a player - but to me his play completely fell off a cliff post injury vs where it was before, for goals. He's had a great career with great seasons since, but for goal-scoring it's a huge gap before and after injury.

Could this happen to Matthews? Sure - anyone can get career ending/altering injury, causing their play to drop off a cliff. But in my opinion - it's extremely unlikely as that rarely happens.

Will Matthews match Ovechkin's longevity with all the rockets at a late age? again, absolutely not. I'm sure it's "possible", but also super unlikely.

The point is - Matthews doesn't need to match Ovechkin's longevity to outdo him for Raw Goals. And even less so to top 800 career goals. Matthews has a big gap in goals age to age vs Ovechkin that will keep on growing for at least 1 more year, and he's playing in a high scoring era, which helps.

He can age ~25% less good than Ovechkin for goals post age-30 and still manage to top him in career goals I bet. He can age even worst than that, and still surpass 800 career goals.

 

[WingsFan95]

Next to zero chance. Ovechkin is going to crawl over the line as a 9 time league lead arguably GOAT.

But when you look at the list you see more longevity than sheer skill. There's a luck factor involved and this includes Gretzky who played on some incredibly talented teams himself and in the highest scoring era.

Selanne and Hull given an earlier career could have had theoretical opportunity while Lemieux had cancer.

Recency bias is stupifying misstress. Patrick Maholmes is not yet a Top 10 QB and Matthews is not yet a Top 10 goal scorer. We must continue to wait.