bobholly39
Registered User
- Mar 10, 2013
- 22,262
- 14,889
I'm starting to think Auston Matthews is more likely to end up over 800 career goals vs under - and that he may even make a run at 894.
Auston Matthews and Alex Ovechkin are born on the same calendar day (Sep 17th), so it makes age to age comparisons easy for career goals.
As of January 29th 2024, here is how they compare at the exact same age:
Ovechkin - 522 games, 321 goals. Average of 50 goals per 82 games
Matthews - 527 games, 339 goals. Average of 53 goals per 82 games
Ovechkin did start at age 20, but Matthews missed more time (injuries + covid years) so that their games played are actually quite close. Matthews is also in the middle of an incredible peak season, whereas Ovechkin had lower total at same age as well as the following year (rocket but lockout year), so Matthews is going to continue to widen the gap for the next 1.5 years.
Here's a realistic scenario for where Matthews might be vs Ovechkin by the end of next year.
Ovechkin from Jan 29th 2012 until end of 2013 season only adds 50 goals total (off year in 2012, short lockout year in 2013) for 371 total after age 27.
Matthews right now is on pace for 71 goals this season. Let's say he finishes with 65 (+25) and pots 57 next year, that would put him at 421 at the end of next year, or exactly 50 goals above Ovechkin age for age after age 27 season.
After age 27 - Ovechkin will be very hard to pace. 6 rockets in 7 years, yearly average of 48 goals over those 7 seasons.
Let's conservatively say Matthew can average 40 goals in those 7 years, that would put him at 701 career goals after age 34 (vs 706 for Ovechkin).
If Ovechkin finishes with ~20 goals this season (he's on pace for 16), that would give him a yearly average of 34 goals from ages 35-38. That's actually a bit low - Covid + off year this season/injury have hurt Ovechkin a bit in this stretch.
Brett Hull from ages 35-38 averages 33 goals per year, and this was in the midst of the dead puck era.
Even if you want to be more conservative for Matthews and estimate 30 goals per year for ages 35-38 (so scoring less than Brett Hull in a much higher scoring league), that now puts him at 821career goals after age 38 season.
The league has seen a higher scoring trend for a few years now, and it seems unlikely that's going away anytime soon. It's possible that some of those goal estimates for Matthews in a higher scoring league are actually conservative - if you bump him +5 goals from ages 28-38, that would still have him ageing worst than Ovechkin but still place him at 876 goals instead after age 38 season.
Here's a cleaner way to summarize this:
Brett Hull ages 28-34 averaged 41 goals per year. (seasons 92-93 to 98-99)
Ovechkin ages 28-34 averages 48 goals per year. (seasons (2013-2014 to 2019-2020)
Brett Hull ages 35-38 averaged 33 goals per year (seasons 1999-2000 to 2002-2003). 33 goals average in middle of DPE
Ovechkin ages 35-38 (assuming 20 goals this year) will have averaged 34 goals per year (2021 to 23-24).
If Matthews scores as much as Brett Hull in those years (much higher scoring league is likely for Matthews) it places him at - 840 goals at age 38.
For the longest time I was saying Matthews was heading at ~90%+ liklelihood to 600+ career goals, ~50% likelihood of 700+ and ~5-10% at 800+. Is it time to revise these estimates?
How likely do you think Matthews is to surpass 800 career goals, or even make a run at 894?
I'm starting to think he has a very good shot.
Career ending/altering injuries is also possible of course - but barring that, assuming he ages normally for a player of his stature, I'm starting to think there's more than a 50% chance he surpasses Gordie Howe's 801 career goals and ends up no lower than #3 all-time.
Auston Matthews and Alex Ovechkin are born on the same calendar day (Sep 17th), so it makes age to age comparisons easy for career goals.
As of January 29th 2024, here is how they compare at the exact same age:
Ovechkin - 522 games, 321 goals. Average of 50 goals per 82 games
Matthews - 527 games, 339 goals. Average of 53 goals per 82 games
Ovechkin did start at age 20, but Matthews missed more time (injuries + covid years) so that their games played are actually quite close. Matthews is also in the middle of an incredible peak season, whereas Ovechkin had lower total at same age as well as the following year (rocket but lockout year), so Matthews is going to continue to widen the gap for the next 1.5 years.
Here's a realistic scenario for where Matthews might be vs Ovechkin by the end of next year.
Ovechkin from Jan 29th 2012 until end of 2013 season only adds 50 goals total (off year in 2012, short lockout year in 2013) for 371 total after age 27.
Matthews right now is on pace for 71 goals this season. Let's say he finishes with 65 (+25) and pots 57 next year, that would put him at 421 at the end of next year, or exactly 50 goals above Ovechkin age for age after age 27 season.
After age 27 - Ovechkin will be very hard to pace. 6 rockets in 7 years, yearly average of 48 goals over those 7 seasons.
Let's conservatively say Matthew can average 40 goals in those 7 years, that would put him at 701 career goals after age 34 (vs 706 for Ovechkin).
If Ovechkin finishes with ~20 goals this season (he's on pace for 16), that would give him a yearly average of 34 goals from ages 35-38. That's actually a bit low - Covid + off year this season/injury have hurt Ovechkin a bit in this stretch.
Brett Hull from ages 35-38 averages 33 goals per year, and this was in the midst of the dead puck era.
Even if you want to be more conservative for Matthews and estimate 30 goals per year for ages 35-38 (so scoring less than Brett Hull in a much higher scoring league), that now puts him at 821career goals after age 38 season.
The league has seen a higher scoring trend for a few years now, and it seems unlikely that's going away anytime soon. It's possible that some of those goal estimates for Matthews in a higher scoring league are actually conservative - if you bump him +5 goals from ages 28-38, that would still have him ageing worst than Ovechkin but still place him at 876 goals instead after age 38 season.
Here's a cleaner way to summarize this:
Brett Hull ages 28-34 averaged 41 goals per year. (seasons 92-93 to 98-99)
Ovechkin ages 28-34 averages 48 goals per year. (seasons (2013-2014 to 2019-2020)
Brett Hull ages 35-38 averaged 33 goals per year (seasons 1999-2000 to 2002-2003). 33 goals average in middle of DPE
Ovechkin ages 35-38 (assuming 20 goals this year) will have averaged 34 goals per year (2021 to 23-24).
If Matthews scores as much as Brett Hull in those years (much higher scoring league is likely for Matthews) it places him at - 840 goals at age 38.
For the longest time I was saying Matthews was heading at ~90%+ liklelihood to 600+ career goals, ~50% likelihood of 700+ and ~5-10% at 800+. Is it time to revise these estimates?
How likely do you think Matthews is to surpass 800 career goals, or even make a run at 894?
I'm starting to think he has a very good shot.
Career ending/altering injuries is also possible of course - but barring that, assuming he ages normally for a player of his stature, I'm starting to think there's more than a 50% chance he surpasses Gordie Howe's 801 career goals and ends up no lower than #3 all-time.
