ATD2018 - Draft Thread 3

[jarek]

I don't know what he means either, jarek, though it is possible I'm just getting senile.

I just don't understand why the scores need to be normalized. I think that's where I'm getting stuck. The benchmarks are all available. Why does some kind of normalization need to be made?

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Or im guessing the average elite player scores around 70 adjusted ESP points per year and that instead of using 100 as a benchmark, HO found 70 to be more appropriate

That's correct. A player who reaches the yearly benchmark gets a score of 70, not 100. My reasoning was even-strength is only about 70% of total offense, so normalizing to 70 "looked about right" relative to normal/total VsX.

That being said, it's trivial for me to change the threshold to 100 (or any other number). If people feel strongly about this one way or another, let me know.

I just don't understand why the scores need to be normalized. I think that's where I'm getting stuck. The benchmarks are all available. Why does some kind of normalization need to be made?

I find it provides context. For example, I've always normalized goals to 50 (rather than 100, or some other number). Fifty goals was always an important milestone so having goals based on that felt right.

Before we get too hung up on any particular benchmark, remember that it's the relative rankings, not any specific number, that really matters. I could set the benchmark for everything to π (pi) and I don't think it would really change the usefulness of the system.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Liba-Hlinka-Nesterenko should do the job as a 4th line who can chip in some goals here and there while being competent defensively.

I also wanted to take some europeans, I try to do that every year, and for some reasons didn't have any this year before building my 4th line.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I just don't understand why the scores need to be normalized. I think that's where I'm getting stuck. The benchmarks are all available. Why does some kind of normalization need to be made?

Read my post above where I explain why.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I find it provides context. For example, I've always normalized goals to 50 (rather than 100, or some other number). Fifty goals was always an important milestone so having goals based on that felt right.

Before we get too hung up on any particular benchmark, remember that it's the relative rankings, not any specific number, that really matters. I could set the benchmark for everything to π (pi) and I don't think it would really change the usefulness of the system.

Agreed completely.Playoff VsX should be normalized to 24 or 25 for the same reasons.And so on.

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

For those of you who edit wikipedia a lot, they have this partnership with newspapers.com where you can sign up fir free

 

[VanIslander]

I also wanted to take some europeans, I try to do that every year, ...

I didn't try to, but I noticed that I drafted Chara, Hossa, Palffy... all Slovaks!
Then I threw a Czech into the mix: Novy.
(Palffy scored a goal for Czechoslovakia in the '91 Canada Cup, so he can bunk with Novy).
Borovicka, the official drink of the Worcester Railers!

This team will take a lot of shots!

 

[BenchBrawl]

I didn't try to, but I noticed that I drafted Chara, Hossa, Palffy... all Slovaks!
Then I threw a Czech into the mix: Novy.
(Palffy scored a goal for Czechoslovakia in the '91 Canada Cup, so he can bunk with Novy).
Borovicka, the official drink of the Worcester Railers!

Breakdown of europeans on my teams, ignoring my rookie season:

2012: Elias, xxx.

2013: Kapustin, Balderis and Mikhailov in the Top 6! I think that was a record for a championship team.

2014: Mikhailov, Pospisil, Liba(!) (which I'm not even sure I was the one who picked him, I abandoned the 2014 team), xxx, xxx

2015: Kapustin, Balderis, Yakushev, xxx, xxx

2016: Pospisil, Svedberg

2017: Elias

2018: Hlinka, Liba

Well 2012 and especially 2017 were rather low on europeans.

 

[Namba 17]

Dave Burrows, D

 

[Namba 17]

@tinyzombies pmed

 

[tinyzombies]

What city is this draft being held in btw? Thanks for your hospitality.

The Montreal Maroons select, from Bowmanville, ON, Iron Mike Keenan.

 

[tinyzombies]

@ResilientBeast is up

 

[Namba 17]

I don't think he's very good offensively though.

Liba's CSSR League points finishes:
1, 3, 5, 5
goals finishes:
1, 4, 6, 7
WC/OG points:
9, 8
goals:
4, 9
CSSR MVP voting:
1, 2, 2, 2, 6

 

[overpass]

What city is this draft being held in btw? Thanks for your hospitality.

I think Eugene Melnyk and the Ottawa Senators are hosting the draft in Barbados.

 

[tinyzombies]

I think Eugene Melnyk and the Ottawa Senators are hosting the draft in Barbados.

Now yer tawkin

 

[tinyzombies]

Look there’s Howie Morenz at the bar. Talking to Charlie Conacher.

 

[ResilientBeast]

On mobile Ed Sanford, LW

 

[Habsfan18]

The OP is now 9 picks behind. Can IE or a mod please update it?

 

[jarek]

Dave Burrows, D

I thought about him really hard when I took Sologubov given the concerns about Pilote playing on the PK. I think Sologubov is a much better player though.

 

[jarek]

Liba's CSSR League points finishes:
1, 3, 5, 5
goals finishes:
1, 4, 6, 7
WC/OG points:
9, 8
goals:
4, 9
CSSR MVP voting:
1, 2, 2, 2, 6

Like I said.. decent peak, next to nothing past that. I don't think those 5th place points finishes are much of anything, but I can double check.

 

[Namba 17]

I think Sologubov is a much better player though.

Overall Sologubov is better, defensively they are either on the same level, or Burrows is slightly ahead, but what I need is defense + PK, that's why I picked Dave.

 

[jarek]

Overall Sologubov is better, defensively they are either on the same level, or Burrows is slightly ahead, but what I need is defense + PK, that's why I picked Dave.

He's a good pick here, probably the best PK defenseman left.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

On mobile Ed Sanford, LW

I still don't see much difference between him and Clark Gillies

 

[BenchBrawl]

Who wants to do a draft marathon (we draft all in one night) in the upcoming month with me, VanI and probably another guy? Four teams, structure as follow:

One team each

8 lines
6 pairings
4 goalies
2 coaches
1 rover
1 goon
1 PP unit with players drafted strictly for this
1 PK unit with players drafted strictly for this

 

[jarek]

I still don't see much difference between him and Clark Gillies

Yeah I don't think there is any.

He was one of the many guys I considered for my 4th line. I still don't really know if I took the right guy, but Hadfield was about 5 points better in ES VsX7 over Sandford IIRC.