ATD2018 - Draft Thread 3

[Habsfan18]

I wouldn't hold your breath

A man can dream.

 

[Stoneberg]

Might be a while for this pick, Mark and I both busy at work this afternoon.

Would be willing to trade down a bit if anyone is interested.

 

[Iceman]

Stockholm selects Ralph Backstrom, C

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Stockholm selects Ralph Backstrom, C

Ha. Dreakmur and I were just talking about Ralph Backstrom. I thought he was worth drafting in this range; Dreakmur wasn't as impressed.

 

[Iceman]

Ha. Dreakmur and I were just talking about Ralph Backstrom. I thought he was worth drafting in this range; Dreakmur wasn't as impressed.

Hehe, I needed someone to fill out my PK unit(s) but also... I had the the itch to make a pick before going to bed.

 

[jarek]

Ha. Dreakmur and I were just talking about Ralph Backstrom. I thought he was worth drafting in this range; Dreakmur wasn't as impressed.

What didn't he like about him?

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

Hehe, I needed someone to fill out my PK unit(s) but also... I had the the itch to make a pick before going to bed.

According to overpass' spreadsheets, he only saw 9% usage on the PK.

 

[jarek]

According to overpass' spreadsheets, he only saw 9% usage on the PK.

Those start in 1968.

 

[Dreakmur]

What didn't he like about him?

It's not about not liking him, it's about liking others more.

 

[Iceman]

What didn't he like about him?

Depends on what you want I guess. They already have their PK teams filled out so they have some flexibility down the middle with what they want. Maybe an more offensively gifted center could work? Ralph had the best combination of traits that I was looking for and was decent value picking him here.

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

Those start in 1968.

I got a spreadsheet from overpass starts in 1960 and ends in 2017.

 

[Iceman]

Ralph Backstrom - Bio, pictures, stats and more | Historical Website of the Montreal Canadiens

Jean Beliveau and Henri Richard were in their prime, leaving Backstrom to pivot the third line in a defensive capacity against the opponent’s leading scorers. He rose to the challenge, covering opposing shooters and killing penalties, alongside fellow defensive forward Claude Provost.

One of the strongest skaters in the league, Backstrom was fast enough to play deep in the offensive zone, relentlessly forecheck an opposing defenseman, and still get back in time to catch a puck-carrying forward skating towards the Montreal net.

 

[jarek]

I got a spreadsheet from overpass starts in 1960 and ends in 2017.

Where can I get that?

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

Where can I get that?

I can send it to you later or ask overpass himself

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

Also, I'm in the process of calculating ES VsX. Im using the same rules that Sturm outlined back in 2013. No adjustments for min played will be made like seventieslord did last year. This should give a more accurate representation of a player's offensive skills that's not on a PP unit.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Also, I'm in the process of calculating ES VsX. Im using the same rules that Sturm outlined back in 2013. No adjustments for min played will be made like seventieslord did last year. This should give a more accurate representation of a player's offensive skills that's not on a PP unit.

Are there advantages to using even strength VsX vs adjusted even strength points?

I would imagine even strength VsX would be better for (real life) scoring line players, while adjusted even strength points would be better for everyone else.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Where can I get that?

I got a spreadsheet from overpass starts in 1960 and ends in 2017.

I would also like that spreadsheet

 

[ResilientBeast]

I would also like that spreadsheet

Same

 

[kruezer]

Same

I would join in for the spreadsheet as well

 

[rmartin65]

The New York Americans select Gordon 'Doc' Roberts, LW!

Adding some muscle to our forward corps.

@TheDevilMadeMe and @Dreakmur are on the clock (twice).

 

[overpass]

Here’s a link to download the spreadsheet.

Dropbox - Adjusted NHL Stats 1960-2017.xlsx

I think EV VsX would be worth doing. Adjusted even strength points are just a simple scoring level adjustment. Scorers from 1980-1993 (from the increased roster size to the change in TV timeouts) get adjusted down too much in my opinion as that was the era when teams rolled four lines. Also, the numbers for the top players really jump from the O6 years to the expansion years, as average league strength got weaker. EV VsX could address both issues. But I don’t rhink there’s a perfect one size fits all adjustment either, as roles have changed over time for third and fourth line players.

The data should be there on nhl.com to go back to 1933-34, in theory. But I don’t trust the stats for Boston before 1948-49, as it says they consistently “had” very low home PP goals for and against at home. Going back to 1948-49 only might be safer. The numbers from that season on look OK to me.

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

Are there advantages to using even strength VsX vs adjusted even strength points?

I would imagine even strength VsX would be better for (real life) scoring line players, while adjusted even strength points would be better for everyone else.

Idk cuz i have no idea that adjusted ES points existed lol.

I'm gonna calculate the benchmarks up to 1950 and share it with you guys to see if there are any mistakes.

 

[Sturminator]

Here’s a link to download the spreadsheet.

Dropbox - Adjusted NHL Stats 1960-2017.xlsx

I think EV VsX would be worth doing. Adjusted even strength points are just a simple scoring level adjustment. Scorers from 1980-1993 (from the increased roster size to the change in TV timeouts) get adjusted down too much in my opinion as that was the era when teams rolled four lines. Also, the numbers for the top players really jump from the O6 years to the expansion years, as average league strength got weaker. EV VsX could address both issues. But I don’t rhink there’s a perfect one size fits all adjustment either, as roles have changed over time for third and fourth line players.

Yes, an ES VsX would be an improvement over raw or adjusted points, but maybe not by all that much. It stretches a basic assumption of the system (something like equal opportunity over time) to start applying it to bottom-unit players who did not receive anything like equal opportunities.

It is better to evaluate the scoring of checkingline type guys by how they performed relative to other players of that type in their eras, imo.

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

Year	Bench
1950	52​
1951	50
1952	43
1953	47
1954	38
1955	47
1956	48
1957	57
1958	49
1959	60
1960	54.75
1961	57
1962	55.375
1963	58
1964	52
1965	48.167
1966	54
1967	54
1968	60
1969	78
1970	64
1971	77
1972	77
1973	76
1974	83
1975	77
1976	79
1977	74
1978	88
1979	83
1980	91
1981	86
1982	87
1983	90
1984	90
1985	85
1986	90
1987	76
1988	68.375
1989	87
1990	71
1991	73
1992	74
1993	87
1994	70
1995	40
1996	76
1997	72.5
1998	64
1999	67
2000	59
2001	66
2002	59
2003	65
2004	57
2006	62
2007	63
2008	66
2009	63
2010	69
2011	62
2012	60
2013	40
2014	64
2015	59
2016	61
2017	60.875

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Let me know if there are any mistakes. All data taken from NHL.com

 

[overpass]

According to overpass' spreadsheets, he only saw 9% usage on the PK.

Canadiens1958 and I have discussed this in various threads before in the history section. Toe Blake did not use any of his three regular centres (Beliveau, H. Richard, Backstrom) on the penalty kill. The forwards on the Montreal penalty kill were usually the spare players (fifth defenceman and tenth and eleventh forward), and one or two wingers (often Claude Provost.)

As far as I know, nobody who has drafted Toe Blake as a coach in the ATD has ever deployed their players as Toe Blake actually did as a coach and filled out their PK forward spots with fourth liners and third pairing defencemen.