ATD 2016: Draft Thread III

[Iceman]

Really, if the ATD is going to be this geared towards the playoffs, Fuhr should go higher than he does.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him spike next year, get crapped all over, and then do a slow backwards slide over the next few drafts.

Pretty much.

There is too much double dipping with playoff potent goalies.

First they get passed as good enough to win a championship and then they get extra value for their playoff success.

 

[Sturminator]

Pretty much.

There is too much double dipping with playoff potent goalies.

First they get passed as good enough to win a championship and then they get extra value for their playoff success.

There is too much complaining about goaltending in the ATD. The draft is a free market of ideas. If there is an inefficiency in the market, then GMs who want to win will adjust their drafting behavior accordingly.

Goaltending used to be way overvalued in the draft, mainly due to the disproportionate influence of the crappy THN top-100 list in the early days, limited information about more obscure greats (like Gardiner and Vezina), and the fact that it took GMs a while to wake up to the effects of positional scarcity. Turk Broda went 43rd overall in ATD#8, 45 picks ahead of Sergei frikkin Makarov, and it wasn't due to lack of information. Amazingly, nobody cried about it. GMs simply adjusted their draft strategies over time, and goalie values started to balance out with the values of skaters.

If top goaltenders were really undervalued, the rhetorical crusade on their behalf would be unnecessary.

 

[BraveCanadian]

The GMs with the complaints should be the ones voting against teams that try to scrape by with poor goaltending, and they should be the ones making strong arguments in their series where there is a disparity there.

We're the ones drafting and voting so it is really up to all of us to decide which way the wind blows.

Fuhr is a tough case because his regular season numbers etc. are underwhelming but he won. A lot.

In the finals here I think the defense had much more to do with Rob's victory than goaltending.

Pittsburgh had the forwards to keep up with Vancouver's top 6, but they had a much better defense and better depth.

Really wish I had gotten a crack at you Rob!

 

[Say Hey Kid]

The GMs with the complaints should be the ones voting against teams that try to scrape by with poor goaltending, and they should be the ones making strong arguments in their series where there is a disparity there. We're the ones drafting and voting so it is really up to all of us to decide which way the wind blows. Fuhr is a tough case because his regular season numbers etc. are underwhelming but he won. A lot. ...

Agreed. I don't GM in the ATD anymore or even vote (I would someday if I felt I could have a positive influence) so it's not really my business or problem and doesn't bother me on an emotional level. As BC said if GMs want goalies to have a greater impact on the ATD, then they need to vote that way, because otherwise nothing is ever going to change. The teams winning series and ATDs with weaker goalies are just taking advantage of a system that we created and allow to continue. Vézina did win three years ago so the problem may be slightly exaggerated.

 

[MadArcand]

Fuhr is a tough case because his regular season numbers etc. are underwhelming but he won. A lot.

One would think playing on an utterly dominating team might have something to do with it...

Besides, that's still an argument for playoffs, but shouldn't be used in the regular season and a team stooping to using Fuhr in the regular season should feel the consequences. Alas, this is never so.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

...If top goaltenders were really undervalued, the rhetorical crusade on their behalf would be unnecessary.

This make no sense at all. If something is under valued, then it's value is under appreciated and it requires greater advocacy. The evil of racism was undervalued and required civil rights leaders such as Martin Luther King, Jr. to speak out and educate people on the evil of racism for example.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

One would think playing on an utterly dominating team might have something to do with it...Besides, that's still an argument for playoffs, but shouldn't be used in the regular season and a team stooping to using Fuhr in the regular season should feel the consequences. Alas, this is never so.

I've bit my tongue for years and tried to be diplomatic earlier today in this thread, but I'm going to be honest and tell the truth just this one time. There are poster(s) who are well educated and influential with no background in playing or coaching who think that goal tending doesn't matter at all. Their well-written posts sway posters to their viewpoint in general and in every individual series. Until more GMs start thinking for themselves and not being so easily influenced by others this will never change.

 

[BraveCanadian]

One would think playing on an utterly dominating team might have something to do with it...

Fuhr was a big part of the team and he got it done - at times in spectacular fashion.

That utterly dominant team also left Fuhr high and dry pretty often.

Many ATD players played on dominant teams for good chunks of their careers.

Besides, that's still an argument for playoffs, but shouldn't be used in the regular season and a team stooping to using Fuhr in the regular season should feel the consequences. Alas, this is never so.

I agree in general but I think there is also pretty sufficient evidence that the Oilers and Fuhr coasted during a lot of of the regular season and that has to be kept in mind as well.

I've bit my tongue for years and tried to be diplomatic earlier today in this thread, but I'm going to be honest and tell the truth just this one time. There are poster(s) who are well educated and influential with no background in playing or coaching who think that goal tending doesn't matter at all. Their well-written posts sway posters to their viewpoint in general and in every individual series. Until more GMs start thinking for themselves and not being so easily influenced by others this will never change.

Agree on this.. at times things turn into an echo chamber here. Some dominant personalities get more weight given to their opinions and these opinions become the default position for many.

 

[MadArcand]

I agree in general but I think there is also pretty sufficient evidence that the Oilers and Fuhr coasted during a lot of of the regular season and that has to be kept in mind as well.

I don't think Fuhr's Oilers regular season record is a problem. It's rather solid, really. It's his performance outside the Oilers that's concerning - aside from St.Louis, he's been very mediocre post-Edmonton, to put it mildly.

 

[BraveCanadian]

I don't think Fuhr's Oilers regular season record is a problem. It's rather solid, really. It's his performance outside the Oilers that's concerning - aside from St.Louis, he's been very mediocre post-Edmonton, to put it mildly.

I don't think anyone gives him a lot of points for his career post the age of 30 outside his mini-resurgence in St. Louis, anyways.

He had his personal problems and there was a pretty rapid changing of the guard in goaltending imo..

 

[VanIslander]

A goalie who was the 6th or 7th best player on his team ought to be weighed differently than a star goalie who was clearly top-3 on his team.

I took such a perspective in assessing the two teams in the final of ATD 2016. That said, I still voted for the team that ended up winning. The series was not determined based on the difference of goaltending in my books, and, if other voters also thought Durnan better than Fuhr hands down, then the argument about pro- / anti- goaltending is moot.

 

[Sturminator]

This make no sense at all. If something is under valued, then it's value is under appreciated and it requires greater advocacy.

How many years running have we heard the same arguments? What is their basis? "Goaltenders are underrated in the ATD because reasons?" The people who are going to be convinced are already convinced. The debate, such as it is, has been going in circles for some time now.

I'd suggest you give it a break, but you don't seem interested in that. You seem more interested in insulting the knowledge of those who disagree with you, whoever they may be. If that is your best argument, you have my condolences.

The evil of racism was undervalued and required civil rights leaders such as Martin Luther King, Jr. to speak out and educate people on the evil of racism for example.

Comparing advocacy for ATD goalies with the civil rights movement is an...interesting rhetorical device.

 

[jarek]

The "problem" with goaltending is that there is much better value on goaltenders in the later parts of the draft. I'm just not at all convinced that there is a mega steep drop from the 1st goaltender to the 20th goaltender, for example. Every single starting goaltender in the ATD was, for a time, an elite goaltender who was top-3 in his league.

Hugh Lehman, just as an example, was the best goaltender in PCHA history, and look how low we rank him!

 

[BenchBrawl]

I don't understand why this conversation pops up every single year.If you think people don't value goaltending, wait and pick a weak goalie.If you think people value goaltending a lot, pick a strong goalie.If you think people value goaltending like any other position, just choose your favorite strategy.If you think a specific goalie is not appreciated like he should, sell him.

Rob's choice of goalie is largely irrelevent in the grand scheme of things.The elephant in the room is that he's currently the best active GM and his team-building abilities are very high.He also had a bit of luck on his side (like any winner will have), mainly in filling his Top 6's LWers IIRC.

 

[Sturminator]

I don't understand why this conversation pops up every single year.If you think people don't value goaltending, wait and pick a weak goalie.If you think people value goaltending a lot, pick a strong goalie.If you think people value goaltending like any other position, just choose your favorite strategy.If you think a specific goalie is not appreciated like he should, sell him.

Rob's choice of goalie is largely irrelevent in the grand scheme of things.The elephant in the room is that he's currently the best active GM and his team-building abilities are very high.He also had a bit of luck on his side (like any winner will have), mainly in filling his Top 6's LWers IIRC.

Yes, what's sadly overlooked in all of these conversations about goaltending in the ATD is that the franchises that have won with middling goalies have willingly sacrificed goaltending to make themselves very strong elsewhere. Rob didn't win because he "got away with one" on Fuhr. He won because of:

1) his devastating blueline.

2) the fact that he had the guts to draft Andy Bathgate when he already had Frank Boucher, and then proceeded to build the best Bathgate line ever.

3) Vladimir Krutov, Frank Foyston, Ivan Hlinka, and Don Marshall

4) the way he switched up his lineup in the playoffs.

I don't think that the AC would have survived the matchup against West Island and that brutal Gretzky line if it hadn't been for Rob's line-juggling that out of nowhere gave Pittsburgh two defensive lines (up from zero) that were capable of holding their own against the Great One.

This focus on Grant Fuhr is a sideshow distracting us from doing what we ought to be doing, and what we normally do, which is praising the accomplishments of the finalists.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Yes, what's sadly overlooked in all of these conversations about goaltending in the ATD is that the franchises that have won with middling goalies have willingly sacrificed goaltending to make themselves very strong elsewhere. Rob didn't win because he "got away with one" on Fuhr. He won because of:

1) his devastating blueline.

2) the fact that he had the guts to draft Andy Bathgate when he already had Frank Boucher, and then proceeded to build the best Bathgate line ever.

3) Vladimir Krutov, Frank Foyston, Ivan Hlinka, and Don Marshall

4) the way he switched up his lineup in the playoffs.

I don't think that the AC would have survived the matchup against West Island and that brutal Gretzky line if it hadn't been for Rob's line-juggling that out of nowhere gave Pittsburgh two defensive lines (up from zero) that were capable of holding their own against the Great One.

This focus on Grant Fuhr is a sideshow distracting us from doing what we ought to be doing, and what we normally do, which is praising the accomplishments of the finalists.

Agreed on every points.

Besides, now that we're discussing goalies I recall Georges Vézina being the playoff MVP when we won in 2013.So the truth about goalies in the ATD is: it depends.

 

[Sturminator]

Agreed on every points.

Besides, now that we're discussing goalies I recall Georges Vézina being the playoff MVP when we won in 2013.So the truth about goalies in the ATD is: it depends.

Do you remember what the complaint was after your team won with Vezina as MVP in 2013? Second lines don't matter in the ATD.

Now that a team has won with probably the best second line of any champion, we're complaining about goalies again. I get the feeling that no matter the composition of the ATD champion, somebody's going to have a gripe.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Do you remember what the complaint was after your team won with Vezina as MVP in 2013? Second lines don't matter in the ATD.

Now that a team has won with probably the best second line of any champion, we're complaining about goalies again. I get the feeling that no matter the composition of the ATD champion, somebody's going to have a gripe.

I was going to respond about goalies and second lines and what not (basically agreeing with you), until I realized how silly it is for people to complain about that kind of **** when the ATD as a whole is in crisis.This was by far the worst draft I've ever seen since I started out as a GM in 2011.

The democratic process was overdone on pointless ****, the result of those democratic choices almost always ended up being worst case scenarios, the enthousiasm in the playoffs was extremely low, etc...

That is what I'm concerned about, not the value of 4th tier goalies.

 

[jarek]

I was going to respond about goalies and second lines and what not (basically agreeing with you), until I realized how silly it is for people to complain about that kind of **** when the ATD as a whole is in crisis.This was by far the worst draft I've ever seen since I started out as a GM in 2011.

The democratic process was overdone on pointless ****, the result of those democratic choices almost always ended up being worst case scenarios, the enthousiasm in the playoffs was extremely low, etc...

That is what I'm concerned about, not the value of 4th tier goalies.

Several people have expressed the idea that the draft would run much smoother with an admin that had full autonomy over everything. If you guys will have me, I would be happy to be the admin next go around.

 

[Johnny Engine]

I was going to respond about goalies and second lines and what not (basically agreeing with you), until I realized how silly it is for people to complain about that kind of **** when the ATD as a whole is in crisis.This was by far the worst draft I've ever seen since I started out as a GM in 2011.

The democratic process was overdone on pointless ****, the result of those democratic choices almost always ended up being worst case scenarios, the enthousiasm in the playoffs was extremely low, etc...

That is what I'm concerned about, not the value of 4th tier goalies.

Personally, I'm concerned about why you italicized the H only.
Maybe we could do one of those exit surveys like we do in the HOH projects? I think we could learn a lot about how people are feeling about the ATD as a whole. Issue is, we'd have to have someone administer the survey who isn't overly entangled with the draft's politics, and I can't even imagine who that would be. Maybe someone like Theokritos or Vadim Sharifjianov, who understand what the ATD is pretty well, but haven't participated.

 

[jarek]

Personally, I'm concerned about why you italicized the H only.
Maybe we could do one of those exit surveys like we do in the HOH projects? I think we could learn a lot about how people are feeling about the ATD as a whole. Issue is, we'd have to have someone administer the survey who isn't overly entangled with the draft's politics, and I can't even imagine who that would be. Maybe someone like Theokritos or Vadim Sharifjianov, who understand what the ATD is pretty well, but haven't participated.

What exactly are you hoping to accomplish with an exit survey? This seems like it would only be meaningful if there was a "next step" to it that actually addressed specific concerns.

 

[Sturminator]

Red Fisher Conference Regular Season Voting Results:

Jim Robson Division:

Team|1st|2nd|3rd|4th|5th|6th| Total
Chicago Shamrocks|8|5|5|5|1|1| 64
Montreal Canadiens|4|5|11|3|2|0| 69
Home Hardware 2x4s|4|6|6|3|4|2| 78
Couchiching Terriers|4|3|3|5|7|3| 92
Pittsburgh Pirates|3|5|0|8|4|5| 95
Minnesota Fighting Saints|2|1|0|1|7|14| 127

Foster Hewitt Division:

Team|1st|2nd|3rd|4th|5th|6th|7th| Total
Pittsburgh AC|9|6|3|4|1|1|1| 64
Colorado Rockies|4|0|10|5|3|1|2| 89
West Island Lions|3|6|2|5|5|3|1| 91
Miami Screaming Eagles|3|5|4|3|2|5|2| 98
Kenora Thistles|3|4|3|1|2|6|6| 112
Halifax Citadels|1|1|2|5|8|5|3| 120
Hartford Whalers|2|3|1|2|4|4|9| 126

Totals calculated as: (1st place votes * 1) + (2nd place votes * 2)...+ (8th place votes * 8) = Total [lower is better]

 

[seventieslord]

Do you remember what the complaint was after your team won with Vezina as MVP in 2013? Second lines don't matter in the ATD.

Now that a team has won with probably the best second line of any champion, we're complaining about goalies again. I get the feeling that no matter the composition of the ATD champion, somebody's going to have a gripe.

Seems that's just a symptom of the fact that in this new age of parity, no team will have "the best of everything". The winner's going to be the one that had a combination of the strongest strengths, fewest and smallest weaknesses and best cohesion.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Seems that's just a symptom of the fact that in this new age of parity, no team will have "the best of everything". The winner's going to be the one that had a combination of the strongest strengths, fewest and smallest weaknesses and best cohesion.

Some of it is the matchups drawn too.

 

[MadArcand]

Seems that's just a symptom of the fact that in this new age of parity, no team will have "the best of everything". The winner's going to be the one that had a combination of the strongest strengths, fewest and smallest weaknesses and best cohesion.

That would make sense if the winner didn't have the worst goaltending, but the strongest defense or strongest offense instead...