ATD 2015 - Draft Thread III

[ted2019]

I'll finish my third unit off with Veniamin Alexandrov, LW

North American viewers were very much fans of Alexandrov, calling him the best Soviet forward before Firsov. Tarasov also referred to him as the brightest star in the hockey sky.

Shero raving about Alexandrov

This is an article in Russian that I've had to rely on online translators for. If anyone can read Russian and doesn't mind doing me a favor please let me know.



Starshinov is the closest contemporary of Alexandrov in the ATD. Here is how their records in international tournaments stack up during this overlap.

Veniamin Alexandrov international performance:

Year | GP | G | A | P | Place | Tournament | Awards
1961 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 8 | T-8th | WEC-A | --
1962 | *|*|*|*|*|*|*
1963 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 10| T-9th | WEC-A | --
1964 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | T-13th| Olympics | --
1965 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 9 | T-6th | WEC-A | --
1966 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 17| 1st | WEC-A | All-Star
1967 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 14| 4th | WEC-A | All-Star
1968 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -- | WEC-A/Olympics| --
Total | 46 | 37 | 34 | 71 | -- | Points-Per-Game | 1.54

Vyacheslav Starshinov international performance:

Year | GP | G | A | P | Place | Tournament | Awards
1961 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 9 | T-5th | WEC-A | --
1962 | *|*|*|*|*|*|*
1963 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 11| T-6th | WEC-A | --
1964 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 10| T-3rd | Olympics | --
1965 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 8 | T-9th | WEC-A | Best Forward
1966 | 7 | 11| 1 | 12| 3rd | WEC-A | --
1967 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -- | WEC-A | --
1968 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 12| T-2nd | WEC-A/Olympics| --
Total | 49 | 48 | 20 | 68 | -- | Points-Per-Game | 1.41

* USSR did not compete in the 1962 WEC-A tournament.

This excludes the following:


Here is a comparison of their domestic records. We can only use goals due to the stats we have available.

Season| Alexandrov | Starshinov
1961-62|21|29
1962-63|53|23
1963-64|39|34
1964-65|25|25
1965-66|31|22
1966-67|27|47
1967-68|23|46
Total | 219 | 226

This cuts off some of the strong years Alexandrov had at the start of his career and Starshinov had at the end of his career. This again shows that Alexandrov was in Starshinov's league despite the differences in where we draft them.

He goes from the 4th round in the AAA to the 17th round in the ATD ?

 

[ImporterExporter]

It's not that at all. I don't care about his career GP. I'm just saying that comparing him to a player who doesn't belong in this draft doesn't mean he belongs. It looks bad for Persson, not good for Karlsson.

Did you see my comparison to Randy Carlyle?

 

[Sturminator]

He goes from the 4th round in the AAA to the 17th round in the ATD ?

Alexandrov went in the AAA draft?!

 

[Hobnobs]

Alexandrov went in the AAA draft?!

No, he was taken in the MLD

 

[BillyShoe1721]

I'll select D Steve Duchesne to finish my bottom pairing and serve on my second power play unit. He's one of the offensive defensemen I mentioned that I'd rather have than Karlsson.

Point finishes among defensemen: 2, 4, 4, 6, 9, 9
Norris Voting: 5, 7
AS Voting: 5, 7, 8, 9

Take a look at this study that seventies did a few years ago on post-expansion offensive defensemen. The higher "Score" column, the higher the player was relied upon defensively for good defensive teams. You'll be surprised at where Duchesne is ranked. Plenty of guys that were already drafted behind him.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=47027609&postcount=583

An explanation of how the "Score" column is calculated:

Score = This is a subjective method but it seems to work to some extent. the point is to credit players for being relied on more, but also to recognize that it is more impressive to be relied on more by a good team (for two reasons. one, it's a deeper team with tougher to earn minutes, and two, if you're on the ice a lot for a good team, you are a reason it's good) The formula is the prime ATOI times the cubed root of team strength. This means that a guy like xxx (team strength 1.27 in his prime) has his ATOI multiplied by just 1.08, and a guy like Ramage (team strength 0.86 in his prime) has his ATOI multiplied by 0.95. This means there is still credit going to players on good teams, but not disproportionately so. This list is sorted by this column; however, I realize that the next four columns should affect our opinions of these players ie big ways as well.

Also note that his prime adjusted ESPPG is the highest among anyone listed.

Top 4 Adjusted Point Total Seasons
Karlsson: 86, 82, 71*, 48 (total 287)
Duchesne: 66, 66**, 64, 62 (total 258)

Subsequent Seasons
Karlsson: 27, 27
Duchesne: 55, 52, 49, 49, 45, 45

*Projection for 2014-15 over 82 games
**1994-95 lockout shortened season

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Some thoughts on recent picks.

Linden: Exactly the type of player who is usually a reach. A "hero" type fan favorite for a fanbase that is always well represented in the ATD. That said, I think he's actually fallen to where he's a pretty good pick at this point. I even briefly considered him myself with my last pick, something I never thought would happen.

Camille Henry - compared to Dave Andreychuk and Tim Kerr, he's a steal. What makes those guys any better than him, anyway? I would have drafted him 2 rounds ago if my 4th line was set to allow me to dump a PP specialist on it. Unfortunately, my 4th line looks like it's going to have to be a shut down line, so I had no room for Henry. If you google his name (not even archives, just straight up google), you'll find some obituaries, which have fantastic descriptions of his unique style of play. Obituaries are poor sources for how good a player was, but they can be good descriptions of styles, and Henry's definitely are.

Subban vs Karlsson - I see Karlsson ahead in peak (whether Subban deserved his Norris or not, it was still one of the weaker ones in recent years, while Karlsson's was one of the stronger ones), Karlsson ahead in number of relevant seasons, and Karlsson even ahead in big game performances (all-star D at the 2014 Olympics). I'm open to being sold on Karlsson, but wherever he falls in this draft, it should be quite a bit ahead of Subban, as of today.

George McNamara - I used to see him as an elite #6, but after seeing Iain Fyffe's argument that he's in the HHOF mostly because of his coaching, I'm not so sure.

_____________

On awards voting in 94-95 and 12-13 (the lockout years):

In 94-95, the NHL did a two-part voting process. The full PHWA only voted on players from the writer's own conference to get to a small list of finalists, then a small group of national writers voted on the finalists to determine the winner. And I don't think anyone has a problem with any the winners from that year.

The winners in 12-13 were really screwy, probably because (like 94-95), teams played a condensed schedule with only Conference games, so most writers literally had no idea of what was going on in the other Conference. I think the 12-13 awards would have more legitimacy if they used the same voting method as 94-95.

 

[Iceman]

Stockholm Full Throttle selects Jacques Demers, Coach

 

[Leaf Lander]

Hero type player bring a in intangibles element to their teams that can't be defined by stats or skills. They are always key components to their team and because they don't have the flashy skills or. Scoring prowess they get slammed for being lesser players but without them their teams wouldn't have the success that they had and they always made their teams and teammates better with their un measurable greatness

Atd is about all hockey heroes and our love of the players who played this game

 

[Stoneberg]

Halifax selects Vasili Pervukhin, D.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Some thoughts on recent picks.

Linden: Exactly the type of player who is usually a reach. A "hero" type fan favorite for a fanbase that is always well represented in the ATD. That said, I think he's actually fallen to where he's a pretty good pick at this point. I even briefly considered him myself with my last pick, something I never thought would happen.

Camille Henry - compared to Dave Andreychuk and Tim Kerr, he's a steal. What makes those guys any better than him, anyway? I would have drafted him 2 rounds ago if my 4th line was set to allow me to dump a PP specialist on it. Unfortunately, my 4th line looks like it's going to have to be a shut down line, so I had no room for Henry. If you google his name (not even archives, just straight up google), you'll find some obituaries, which have fantastic descriptions of his unique style of play. Obituaries are poor sources for how good a player was, but they can be good descriptions of styles, and Henry's definitely are.

Subban vs Karlsson - I see Karlsson ahead in peak (whether Subban deserved his Norris or not, it was still one of the weaker ones in recent years, while Karlsson's was one of the stronger ones), Karlsson ahead in number of relevant seasons, and Karlsson even ahead in big game performances (all-star D at the 2014 Olympics). I'm open to being sold on Karlsson, but wherever he falls in this draft, it should be quite a bit ahead of Subban, as of today.

George McNamara - I used to see him as an elite #6, but after seeing Iain Fyffe's argument that he's in the HHOF mostly because of his coaching, I'm not so sure.

_____________

On awards voting in 94-95 and 12-13 (the lockout years):

In 94-95, the NHL did a two-part voting process. The full PHWA only voted on players from the writer's own conference to get to a small list of finalists, then a small group of national writers voted on the finalists to determine the winner. And I don't think anyone has a problem with any the winners from that year.

The winners in 12-13 were really screwy, probably because (like 94-95), teams played a condensed schedule with only Conference games, so most writers literally had no idea of what was going on in the other Conference. I think the 12-13 awards would have more legitimacy if they used the same voting method as 94-95.

I had forgot to add that to his bio actually. Nice feather in your cap to be voted best defensemen of the Olympics. Obviously a smaller sample size than NHL playoffs but going against the absolute best in the world and showing you can dominate should count for something.

http://sochi2014.iihf.com/men/news/awards

 

[Sturminator]

No, he was taken in the MLD

Oh...well that's better, at least.

Alexandrov is a funny case. He and Starshinov were only born three years apart, so by far the biggest part of their primes overlap, and we can compare apples-to-apples. By reputation, Alexandrov is quite possibly the greater figure. Descriptions of those 1960's Soviet teams seem to focus more on Alexandrov than on Starshinov as the fulcrum of the offense. This is perhaps mainly a stylistic question (Alexandrov was a fast, elegant skater with great technical skills while Starshinov was sort of a plodding net-crasher), but Alexandrov's edge in scoring in international tournaments seems to back that up, and his line is consistently referred to as the top Soviet line of the era.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

jarek - in case you were wondering, I'd say the case of Starshinov is the flip-side of the "put your money where your mouth is" argument you made some days ago. By far the greatest reason for the disconnect in ATD status between Starshinov and Alexandrov comes from the fact that some enterprising GM (I believe it was Nalyd) gave Starshinov a huge boost some years ago to around his current draft position, and that valuation has stuck.

The problem with that valuation, of course, is that is was based on the misinformed assertion (coming almost entirely from domestic goal-scoring records) that Starshinov was head-and-shoulders above any other Soviet forward before Firsov. This is simply not the case. The fact that a number of GMs have known for a number of years that Starshinov was not, in fact, what we thought he was when he ascended to his current draft status is an interesting case study in ATD collective insanity. Putting one's money where one's mouth is can lead to distortions in the other direction, as well, with players frozen into a sort of weird overvalued torpor where they're just sitting there, year after year, waiting for some innocent rookie GM to pick them while the veterans avoid them like live hand grenades.

This was the case with Punch Broadbent for a long time before he finally came in for enough criticism to push his draft position down to halfway sane levels, though it could still stand to drop a bit more. Starshinov probably needs to fall, as well.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Coming up with clear valuations for 60's Soviets is difficult, and I believe it is best to think in ranges of possibility. If I were to hazard an honest guess, I would probably place Starshinov in a range of offensive value among goalscoring centers with Pat Lafontaine as the upper boundary and Joe Nieuwendyk as the lower boundary...meaning I think he should fall 50-100 picks in the ATD, and I would draft him after Lafontaine but before Nieuwendyk under normal circumstances. I think this is about a fair appraisal of his true value.

Getting back to Alexandrov...he is equal to Starshinov as a scorer, and is an offensively well-rounded, good-skating LW rather than a slow, goal-scoring center. Under normal circumstances, he should be more valuable than Starshinov to an ATD team due to the differences in position and role. Where he'd place among offensive wingers? ...I'd say his ceiling is probably Daniel Sedin, and his floor is Pavol Demitra...something like that. In no sane universe has Veniamin Alexandrov ever belonged in the MLD.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

I definitely swap Linden and O'Reilly if I'm the Leafs. Neither is ideal, but Trevor Linden is a far more sensible 3rd line RW than the latter..

 

[BenchBrawl]

But he was 13th in all-star voting last season and doesn't appear like he's a norris finalist this season.

Wait what?! Subban could win the Norris this year.

 

[seventieslord]

Alexandrov went in the AAA draft?!

Haha, no way, I'd let him get down there. Neither would Hedberg or VI.

Did you see my comparison to Randy Carlyle?

Yes.

Take a look at this study that seventies did a few years ago on post-expansion offensive defensemen. The higher "Score" column, the higher the player was relied upon defensively for good defensive teams.

that score column doesn't isolate defense. it uses just the overall goals for to against ratio of the team.

Wait what?! Subban could win the Norris this year.

He's not in my top 3. Doughty, Suter and Weber are. But yeah, he could.

He's better than in 2013 isn't he? And not by a small margin, either.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Wait what?! Subban could win the Norris this year.

I don't see that happening, Weber, Doughty and few others are clearly ahead

 

[ImporterExporter]

Suter? He's had one of his worst seasons in recent memory....at least from what i've seen.

Maybe i'm not watching the same/enough Wild games as others. He's not a top 3 Dman this year. I'll take Weber, Doughty, Subban, Karlsson, and likely an undrafted over him.

Weber's been extremely strong this year on the best team in the NHL. Subban is in the same boat. Karlsson is shouldering a massive load on a crappy team and is elite in scoring and right now ranks 1st in both Corsi and Fenwick of any D with at least 1500 minutes played. Doughty has more ice time per game than anyone in the NHL and is a + player on a + team while Suter is a - player on an even better + team than LA.

Nitpicking i'm sure but i don't see Suter has being worthy of a Norris top 3.

 

[jarek]

Doughty? Really? Why?

Chicago has allowed the 2nd fewest GA in the entire league and not a single one of their D is worthy of Norris consideration this year according to you guys.. huh..

 

[Dwight]

Doughty? Really? Why?

Chicago has allowed the 2nd fewest GA in the entire league and not a single one of their D is worthy of Norris consideration this year according to you guys.. huh..

Keith is definitely up there, but why not make the same argument for Subban?

 

[BillyShoe1721]

For the record, I think Duncan Keith is the best defenseman in the NHL. And has been for the past 6 years.

Pervukhin was a good pick here, if I went for BDA he was probably the pick, but I wanted a more offensive leaning guy to complete my PP. He's pretty underrated around here.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Doughty? Really? Why?

Chicago has allowed the 2nd fewest GA in the entire league and not a single one of their D is worthy of Norris consideration this year according to you guys.. huh..

I think Duncan Keith has more of a claim than Suter, i know that much.

Doughty's advanced metrics are pretty damn good this year. And he generates almost exclusively from ES in terms of his offensive value. Plus he logs more ice time than anyone in the league. LA has been a pretty average team all year but that has very little to do with DD's performance.

Now, i don't watch as many Kings games (wrong coast) as others, but i've been very impressed with Doughty's play when i have tuned in.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

The problem with that valuation, of course, is that is was based on the misinformed assertion (coming almost entirely from domestic goal-scoring records) that Starshinov was head-and-shoulders above any other Soviet forward before Firsov. This is simply not the case. The fact that a number of GMs have known for a number of years that Starshinov was not, in fact, what we thought he was when he ascended to his current draft status is an interesting case study in ATD collective insanity. Putting one's money where one's mouth is can lead to distortions in the other direction, as well, with players frozen into a sort of weird overvalued torpor where they're just sitting there, year after year, waiting for some innocent rookie GM to pick them while the veterans avoid them like live hand grenades.

Not just domestic goal scoring, Starshinov was also the Soviet All-Star center for like a decade in a row. But you're absolutely right - while he seems quite dominant domestically, he didn't really distinguish himself at all internationally. I was pretty disappointed in him when I drafted him in ATD2011

Getting back to Alexandrov...he is equal to Starshinov as a scorer, and is an offensively well-rounded, good-skating LW rather than a slow, goal-scoring center. Under normal circumstances, he should be more valuable than Starshinov to an ATD team due to the differences in position and role. Where he'd place among offensive wingers? ...I'd say his ceiling is probably Daniel Sedin, and his floor is Pavol Demitra...something like that. In no sane universe has Veniamin Alexandrov ever belonged in the MLD.

I would be interested in seeing your case for Alexandrov as Starshinov's equal as a scorer.

 

[jarek]

Keith is definitely up there, but why not make the same argument for Subban?

It's possible. I just don't know how much of an effect Price and Rinne have had on their team GAA relative to the work of their defensemen.

For the record, I think Duncan Keith is the best defenseman in the NHL. And has been for the past 6 years.

Pervukhin was a good pick here, if I went for BDA he was probably the pick, but I wanted a more offensive leaning guy to complete my PP. He's pretty underrated around here.

TDMM and I had Pervukhin on our MLD team. He's pretty good.

I just wanna say.. there's a lot of things I would do to have tape of 1907-1908 Cyclone Taylor. The in game reports of him that year paint the picture of a nearly perfect, completely flawless player who was INCREDIBLY exciting to watch.

 

[jarek]

I think Duncan Keith has more of a claim than Suter, i know that much.

Doughty's advanced metrics are pretty damn good this year. And he generates almost exclusively from ES in terms of his offensive value. Plus he logs more ice time than anyone in the league. LA has been a pretty average team all year but that has very little to do with DD's performance.

Now, i don't watch as many Kings games (wrong coast) as others, but i've been very impressed with Doughty's play when i have tuned in.

The PP absolutely must be considered for the Norris, as well as their offensive game. Elite dmen cannot afford to be one way anymore, whether that way is towards their own net or towards the other net.

I'd want to hear the case for why advanced metrics should be considered for the Norris.. or any award, for that matter. My absolute biggest problem with corsi and all those other stats that measure shot attempts is that, to my knowledge, NONE of them are able to isolate a player on his own and what he has contributed to those metrics. I have heard of a stat called rel corsi or something, is that the measure of possession of a player relative to the players he is normally on the ice with?

 

[Say Hey Kid]

For pick 524 I sent 4 names to MA. Geez 87, it's a roster, not a team photo op.

 

[ImporterExporter]

The PP absolutely must be considered for the Norris, as well as their offensive game. Elite dmen cannot afford to be one way anymore, whether that way is towards their own net or towards the other net.

I'd want to hear the case for why advanced metrics should be considered for the Norris.. or any award, for that matter. My absolute biggest problem with corsi and all those other stats that measure shot attempts is that, to my knowledge, NONE of them are able to isolate a player on his own and what he has contributed to those metrics. I have heard of a stat called rel corsi or something, is that the measure of possession of a player relative to the players he is normally on the ice with?

You want to know why they matter (to a degree)? Because neanderthal writers and people who half ass know the game of hockey use blanket numbers like point totals and +/- to support their ballots.

Advanced metrics have revolutionized baseball for example. They are gaining steam in hockey and for good reason. You can isolate so many facets of the game with them. GM's and brilliant hockey minds are absolutely taking them to heart. That is evident by certain players taking defensive zone faceoffs relative to opponent. You can use it team to team, player to player. That is just one of many examples.

Is it the end all and be all? No. But they do have importance. Otherwise we're looking at the same old boring numbers that brainwash people into thinking players are better/worse than they actually are.