ATD 2011- Draft Thread

[Dreakmur]

HAHA i knew it!

He was one of the three guys I was thinking, but, as I said to you, he always seems to pick guys he's had before.

 

[hungryhungryhippy]

Okay, I sort of cheated

I went to his profile to see if he was online, and saw him viewing the 196X-198X Save percentage thread haha

 

[Leafs Forever]

List pick is here:



I'll MP the next GM.

This ironically works well considered who I picked

He was one of the three guys I was thinking, but, as I said to you, he always seems to pick guys he's had before.

*Ponders* ooooh, I think I know who you thought I was going to take. Good guess, but I just love having elite goaltending too much. (though for once I'm not going to have an elite top line )

Okay, I sort of cheated

I went to his profile to see if he was online, and saw him viewing the 196X-198X Save percentage thread haha

Well, that only narrows it down to the many goalies mentioned in that thread

 

[hungryhungryhippy]

It's funny to think that my favorite NHL team's current starting goalie is probably going to be a starter in this thing hah

 

[Dreakmur]

Anyone in the next 4-5 picks can leave a list with me. I'll be here a while and don't pick for a while.

 

[Hedberg]

I'm happy to see Dryden be the next goalie selected.

 

[Dreakmur]

I've got a list for HHH, so we just need the two before him to come in and pick

 

[seventieslord]

I actually meant that to just be some ribbing, I'm sorry I didn't add on some smiley to make that more obvious.

OK. Cheers.

However, it hasn't done anything to debunk my "theory".

If anything caveats like the Dead Wings possibly having an easier time scoring than the highest scoring dynasty in the history of the game have me questioning how relative team strength should be accounted for in all these adjustments people are routinely doing.

There's a difference between being on a good team that still gets to play all the teams that other teams play against, and being in a divisional playoff system where every year you get to play against weaker sisters than other comparably strong teams get to play.

I'm not moving the goalposts, you're just equating playoff performance with scoring. I'm talking about playoff performance including scoring.

I am only equating playoff performance with scoring because their average defensive value throughout their careers were pretty much equal.

I know you put a lot of stock into the numbers and put a lot of effort here into trying to estimate their totals, but there are so many variables that aren't even captured in the raw data it is hopeless to adjust and average and then stake a definitive claim either way. (in my opinion)

Nothing is ever conclusive. It's all just a small piece of a big puzzle. In this case you presented two very good points about why raw numbers don't work, and my work got us closer to the truth, not further.

If we take them at face value and we're saying Messier was estimated to be scoring at 1.07PPG with your normalization and Yzerman was at 1PPG then I'd say since the majority of Yzerman's playoff games came after he was a defensive stalwart that their playoff performance was fairly close, no?

I dunno, where would you put the cutoff? 1996? Because it's about a 40/60 breakdown if that's the cutoff. Messier did have years that he was not good defensively, but in those years he didn't make the playoffs. It's still fair to say that overall, their playoff defensive performances have been equal.

Not sure if it has any value, (I'm sure it wouldn't if it was at all close), but Messier's career playoff +/- is +51; Yzerman's is -11.

Okay, I sort of cheated

I went to his profile to see if he was online, and saw him viewing the 196X-198X Save percentage thread haha

That's some nice detective work.

I'm happy to see Dryden be the next goalie selected.

 

[seventieslord]

Someone start the next thread.

Don't worry about the OP, I'll edit it myself.

I don't care who does it. It can be Bugg, it can be someone else. As long as they're here often, and willing to make updates when picks and trades are made and I'm not active.

 

[Hedberg]

New Thread:

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=871391