ATD #10 Lineup Assassination Thread

[raleh]

I can agree, I don't want to come across like I am deriding the Delvecchio pick, I think it was solid for sure, I just find him a harder player to judge in an all-time context.

How is this for some groupings... (the groups themselves aren't in order)

Wayne Gretzky
Phil Esposito
Mario Lemieux
Stan Mikita
Jean Beliveau
Howie Morenz

Cyclone Taylor
Newsy Lalonde
Bobby Clarke
Bryan Trottier
Milt Schmidt

Elmer Lach
Joe Sakic
Syl Apps Sr.
Steve Yzerman

Frank Boucher
Peter Stastny
Henri Richard
Nels Stewart

Bill Cowley
Adam Oates
Alex Delvecchio
Norm Ullman
Vladimir Petrov

Eric Lindros
Darryl Sittler
Mats Sundin
Sergei Fedorov

Does that seems like a legit look at the top line centers (according to the roster page) in this draft?

Don't want to sound nitpicky, and not to rag on Mullin's team because it's one of my favourites, but I don't think Espo belongs in that top group. Personally I would switch him and Clarke, but as long as Espo goes down I don't need Clarke moving up.

 

[MXD]

true,.. but on Beliveau's left side, an upgrade on Olmstead was Joliat, eh?

Well, Joliat was gone since roughly 80 picks, but i see your point.

 

[Sturminator]

Because I am bored and need something to so while my wife cooks breakfast and only one other GM has written anything about San Francisco: a self-analysis. I think these Spiders are the best team I've been a part of yet.

Coach: Cecil Hart

Bucyk (a) - Sakic (c) - Maltsev
Foyston - Savard - Litzenberger
Prentice - McKenney - Ellis
Stuart - Adams - Graham

extra: Stanfield, Vikulov

Gadsby - Lidstrom (a)
Stuart - Wentworth
Russell - Corbeau

extra: Seiling

Fuhr
Kerr​

Best Picks:

Aleksandr Maltsev: 7th round - I refer the reader to the Soviet hockey thread of my own creation. There is little to seperate Maltsev's career accomplishments from those of contemporaries Kharlamov and Mikhailov, certainly much less than their respective draft positions would indicate. Maltsev plays much the same game and is on the same level as Makarov. He slips out of the top 120 only due to lack of press in North America.

Frank Foyston: 11th round - Foyston's regular season accomplishments are already enough to make him a solid 2nd liner, but before my research I don't believe the extent of his postseason success was fully appreciated by all. I'll say it again: Foyston was the most dominant postseason scorer of his era. His playoff scoring record outshines those of Lalonde, Malone, Nighbor and even Taylor. This is a player who has historically slipped in the ATD because of questions about the PCHA, but his Stanley Cup record vs. NHL teams is unquestionably great.

Don McKenney: 15th round - My profile of McKenney should have already made this clear. This is a player that has been grossly underappreciated and misused thus far. His defensive game was strong, and his scoring record, both in the regular season and playoffs (on a poor team in the O6 era, mind you) is in the upper-eschelon of 3rd liners, excepting only the guys who were drafted long before him. McKenney was probably the biggest rabbit in my hat this time around, a stroke of luck who I discovered while researching, of all people...Doug Mohns.

Dirk Graham: 14th round - Sort of a gift, as we didn't draft Graham and were offered him for a much later pick. I think it's clear that Graham is an elite 4th liner.

So-so picks:

Ed Litzenberger: 8th round - Based on talent/career value, I think Litz is a mild reach where pappy and I have taken him in the past two drafts, but big, physical forwards with legitimate scoringline talent are almost impossible to get at a bargain in this thing and I didn't want to take any chances on the 2nd line being soft.

Bert Corbeau: 17th round - Corbeau is a legit 3rd pairing defenseman, but I didn't really want to take him this high. At the time, we needed a designated fighter and were looking at Dutton and Harris, but both went off the board just before our turn.

Why San Francisco could win it all:

1) Skill Level: this is simply a very skilled team.

2) Clutch Play: this comes into play later, but this is a team full of postseason studs. Excepting possibly the bottom units, every line and every pairing has at least one guy who raised his level of play in the postseason, and the squad is backstopped by a terrific money goalie.

3) Cohesive Gameplan: this is the very model of a Cecil Hart team. Hart's Canadiens were known for relying on speed, passing and puck possession, much like the present day Red Wings, and these Spiders are built on exactly that model.

Potential Problems:

1) Regular Season Goaltending: Dave Kerr and Grant Fuhr will split games pretty evenly in the regular season to keep our #1 fresh for the playoffs. Although Kerr is a strong ATD backup, this obviously brings San Francisco's regular season goaltending down a peg.

2) Physicality: GMs who are in love with smashmouth, bruiser teams (I'm thinking most specifically of raleh and Murphy here) may not care much for the Red Wings-style hockey these Spiders will play. All of the lines and pairings have at least one physical player, but with the exception of the bottom units (3rd pairing and 4th line), none are physically dominant.

3) No shutdown line: Though the blueline is strong, is is not a team that can really sit on a lead. Backchecking from the 1st line is average and the second line is below average defensively (unless you believe that Ed Litzenberger is "very strong defensively" by virtue of era, which I do not). The 3rd line is strong, but not dominant defensively. The Spiders will have to win by counterattacking and outscoring their opponents, from the first puck drop to the final whistle.

Not going to do a player-by-player or line-by-line analysis. We'll save that for the playoffs.

 

[Sturminator]

Wayne Gretzky
Phil Esposito
Mario Lemieux
Stan Mikita
Jean Beliveau
Howie Morenz

Cyclone Taylor
Newsy Lalonde
Bobby Clarke
Bryan Trottier
Milt Schmidt

Elmer Lach
Joe Sakic
Syl Apps Sr.
Steve Yzerman

Frank Boucher
Peter Stastny
Henri Richard
Nels Stewart

Bill Cowley
Adam Oates
Alex Delvecchio
Norm Ullman
Vladimir Petrov

Eric Lindros
Darryl Sittler
Mats Sundin
Sergei Fedorov

Does that seems like a legit look at the top line centers in this draft?

I disagree with a lot of this. In my opinion, these groups are too rough at points, and some of the values are just off. But then everyone sees things differently. I will attempt my own.

Group 1: Wayne Gretzky

Group 2: Mario Lemieux

Group 3: Jean Beliveau

Group 4: Stan Mikita, Howie Morenz

Group 5: Phil Esposito, Bobby Clarke

Group 6: Bryan Trottier, Newsy Lalonde, Cyclone Taylor, Milt Schmidt, Joe Sakic, Steve Yzerman

Group 7: Frank Boucher, Syl Apps Sr.

Group 8: Peter Stastny, Henri Richard, Norm Ullman, Alex Delvecchio

Group 10: Sergei Fedorov, Nels Stewart, Adam Oates, Bill Cowley, Elmer Lach

Group 11: Darryl Sittler, Eric Lindros

Group 12: Vladimir Petrov, Mats Sundin

kreuzer, you're underrating your own #1 center by not having him in his own special plateau, where he rightly belongs. Elmer Lach gets pretty often overrated around here; the lion's share of Lach success came from 42-46. Cowley earned a pretty fair share of his laurels during the war years, as well. Stewart I knock not because of his lack of speed and defense (his scoring dominance makes up for it), but because of his postseason record, which is ugly even for such a low-scoring playoff era. Boucher is consistently underrated; I agreed with the rating of Frank back when I thought he weighed 100 pounds soaking wet, but that turned out to be false. Petrov I liked more before doing my Soviet research this time around. He scored a lot, but he couldn't skate and I think he was poor defensively. The Soviet league MVP voters don't seem to have thought he was all that great. Lalonde's playoff record gets overblown because of one great NHL playoffs series against a Nighbor-less Ottawa team. Outside of that series, it is actually fairly unspectacular. The Newsy propaganda machine would have us rate him on the Esposito/Clarke level, but I can't justify that.

That should about cover my thoughts here.

 

[Nalyd Psycho]

Group 1: Wayne Gretzky

Group 2: Mario Lemieux

Group 3: Jean Beliveau

Group 4: Stan Mikita, Howie Morenz

Group 5: Phil Esposito, Bobby Clarke

Group 6: Bryan Trottier, Newsy Lalonde, Cyclone Taylor, Milt Schmidt, Joe Sakic, Steve Yzerman

Group 7: Frank Boucher, Syl Apps Sr.

Group 8: Peter Stastny, Henri Richard, Norm Ullman, Alex Delvecchio

Group 10: Sergei Fedorov, Nels Stewart, Adam Oates, Bill Cowley, Elmer Lach

Group 11: Darryl Sittler, Eric Lindros

Group 12: Vladimir Petrov, Mats Sundin

I agree with this list, except two things:

1. Taylor and Lalonde are on the same level as Clarke and Esposito IMO.
2. Petrov should be with the Fedorov grouping, definitely above Sittler IMO.

I see everyone listing Taylor with late 2nd rounders. Yet, I have yet to hear a single argument as to why he doesn't have the best offensive game of any center after Mikita and Morenz.

 

[Sturminator]

I agree with this list, except two things:

1. Taylor and Lalonde are on the same level as Clarke and Esposito IMO.
2. Petrov should be with the Fedorov grouping, definitely above Sittler IMO.

I see everyone listing Taylor with late 2nd rounders. Yet, I have yet to hear a single argument as to why he doesn't have the best offensive game of any center after Mikita and Morenz.

Nalyd, I'm not really sure the burden of proof is on me here to show that Lalonde/Taylor are below the Clarke/Esposito level, but I will attempt to address your concerns. One of the biggest difficulties in evaluating these players is that no one has yet done a comprehensive analysis of the various seasons in which they played. I hear a lot of "Newsy was super!" chatter on this board, but almost nothing in the way of real research, real statistical analysis to back these statements up. With Taylor, I hear that he's dominant, but I trust numbers a lot more than adjectives, especially when it comes to 1st rounders. I am aware of Taylor's greatness and my mind is open, but if you want "the academy" to see this guy as a 1st rounder, the burden is on you to show why he is. You don't have the benefit of easy-to-access stats for Taylor at hockeydb or widespread agreement about the level of competition, so you need to do the legwork yourself.

I've done some digging into Lalonde and Taylor's careers, and all I can stay at this point is that the "easy way" does not work in assessing the greatness of these players. This is a general point for all old-time players: one cannot simply list a player's scoring finishes from this era and sell that as anything close to its modern equivalent. I would like to see these players' careers broken down season-by-season before I'm going to feel really comfortable with my evaluation of them. Until then, it's a lot of guesswork.

I know more about Lalonde's career, so I'll do a brief sketch of his peak, starting with the very first NHA season (before questions of source come us, as I know there is a lot of conflicting information about this period, I'm using the Wiki season profiles):

09-10: Lalonde splits the season between three different teams and leads the NHA in goals with 38 in 11 games. Second place is Ernie Russell with 31 goals in 12 games. Third place is xxxxxxxx with 24 goals in 10 games. The goalscoring flattens out after that, as many more players top 20 goals on the season. How do we evaluate this year? Newsy was dominant, but the competition was weak.

10-11: Lalonde places 6th in league scoring with 19 goals in 16 games. The top two scorers have 37 and 32 goals in the same number of games. This seems a pretty unimpressive season, as Lalonde was badly beaten by some lesser talents.

11-12: Lalonde leads the PCHA in scoring with 27 goals in 15 games. He narrowly beats the rest of the top-4 - Hyland, Dunderdale and Patrick with 26, 24 and 23 goals respectively - before a fall-off to the #5 guy. A nice season by Newsy, but not what I'd call over-the-top dominant.

12-13: Lalonde is 5th in NHA scoring with 25 goals in 18 games. Joe Malone leads the league with 43 goals and the 2nd place scorer has 39, before a fall-off. An allright year for Lalonde, but nothing special. The plateaus of scoring change every year with these leagues, which is one big reason why a season-by-season analysis is necessary. In one season, a 4th place finish may be just a few goals behind 1st, and in another, it may not even be half as many.

13-14: Lalonde is 8th in NHA scoring with 22 goals in 14 games. His scoring pace is good, but he misses 6 games with what was probably some kind of injury. The year is basically a loss.

14-15: Lalonde is again hurt, and plays in only 7 games. Another lost season.

edit; crap. I guess the rest of the post was somehow cut off. Anyway, this is an example of the kind of breakdown I think is warranted for these players.

 

[Nalyd Psycho]

I've made arguments in other threads and here, but no one every replied with a counter argument, but it's clear I didn't change any minds, so that's why I'm looking for any info that can help me develop a stronger argument. I don't have time right now, but I'll try my best to develop a stronger breakdown after I get home from work tonight/tomorrow morning.

 

[kruezer]

So as I was finalizing my votes, I noticed one problem with one team.

This is for Pwnasauras...

http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=lE9s_FaOFPM

 

[Pwnasaurus]

So as I was finalizing my votes, I noticed one problem with one team.

This is for Pwnasauras...

http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=lE9s_FaOFPM

Not a problem at all.

1. No team in this draft is the Seals. Well except the Seals, but they're infinitely better than their real life counterpart.

2. He's on the 2nd unit to take advantage of this ability obviously but we didn't want to tire him out. I anticipate many matchups where people say Orr's health will be an issue and that he can't play all those minutes on both special teams and against the opposition 1st line etc etc. He'll certainly see time on the PK.

 

[kruezer]

Not a problem at all.

1. No team in this draft is the Seals. Well except the Seals, but they're infinitely better than their real life counterpart.

2. He's on the 2nd unit to take advantage of this ability obviously but we didn't want to tire him out. I anticipate many matchups where people say Orr's health will be an issue and that he can't play all those minutes on both special teams and against the opposition 1st line etc etc. He'll certainly see time on the PK.

Thats fair I suppose. But really, is there a better PKer in history than Bobby Orr? I personally would not penalize you in the voting for playing him well into the 30 minute a game range all year and POs.

 

[VanIslander]

...is there a better PKer in history than Bobby Orr?

Gretzky had A LOT of shorthanded goals.

Contrary to what some think, penalty killers do NOT have to be physical, nor even exceptionally fast, but they do need to have great hockey sense, positioning, and stick reach.

 

[Nalyd Psycho]

I've made arguments in other threads and here, but no one every replied with a counter argument, but it's clear I didn't change any minds, so that's why I'm looking for any info that can help me develop a stronger argument. I don't have time right now, but I'll try my best to develop a stronger breakdown after I get home from work tonight/tomorrow morning.

Gosh dang it, I can't find any statistical breakdowns, can't even find consistency in the stats. Some info seems to suggest that Taylor started his peak around 29/30. I guess I need to invest in some books for ATD 11...

That said, from what I can find, Taylor's goal scoring numbers were in line with other PCHA stars. Better high end than Dunderdale, and more consistant than Foyston, Fredrickson and MacKay. 18-25 goals a year seems to be the range for a PCHA star. Over his great 6 year stretch (5 scoring titles, injured in the one year he didn't win, better PPG than the winner Bernie Morris, Morris 37-17-54 in 24 games (2.25 ppg), Taylor 14-15-29 in 11 games (2.64 ppg) on pace for 30-33-63, which would have been the best season in PCHA history.) he put up 24 in 16, 23 in 16, 22 in 18, 14 in 11, 32 in 18 and 23 in 20.

That said, his consistency really elivates his goalscoring above his peers: When you compair career averages, it becomes clear that Taylor's 20 goal seasons are the norm for him, while a peak for everyone else.

Career GPG averages:
Fred Taylor: 1.185
Tom Dunderdale: 0.802
***: 0.613
Mickey MacKay:0.824
Bernie Morris: 0.945
Frank Foyston: 0.866
Eddie Oatman: 0.639
Lloyd Cook: 0.475
Frank Frederickson: 0.886
Jack Walker: 0.426
***:* 0.537
*=not top 10 in pts, but top 10 in career goals.

What separates Taylor from the rest is his playmaking. For most of his peers, 10 assists was a banner year. Dunderdale hit double digits twice, peaking at 11, Foyston never did, Fredrickson did it thrice, 10, 12 and 16, Mackay did it thrice, twice 12 and once 11, Bernie Morris was Taylor's best competiting, hitting the mark 4 time with 10, 12, 13 and 17. Where as, Taylor hit the mark 6 times, 11, 13, 13, 15, 15, 22 (PCHA record).

Here's where it gets scary impressive. The career APG averages:
Top 10 pts scorers:
Fred Taylor: 0.763
Tom Dunderdale: 0.244
***: 0.356
Mickey MacKay: 0.420
Bernie Morris: 0.463
Frank Foyston: 0.262
Eddie Oatman: 0.412
Lloyd Cook: 0.256
Frank Frederickson: 0.448
Jack Walker: 0.305
Lester Patrick*: 0.394
*=not top 10 in pts, but top 10 in career assists.

So, overall, Cyclone's best play was equal to or greater than his peers best play, the difference being that Cyclone's best goal scoring was equal to his peers, but his best was what he always delivered, while for others it was a peak value, and that Cyclone's playmaking ability was simply on a level that his peers could not hope to match.

Before anyone mentions that it doesn't include Taylor's whole career focusing solely on his PCHA play, he was a defenseman or rover prior to joining the PCHA, so it is the only place to accurately measure his offensive game. And lets not be hasty to forget what his years as a defenseman and rover say about his two-way game. (No, I'm not saying he's Bobby Clarke, just that he is not a one dimensional scorer, that he uses his speed to backcheck, but is also among the offensive elite.)

The other side of the coin is the way he plays the game. We all know the legends and stories, so, since it's late, I'm not going to drag up more details. What is worth noting is that what separates him from the other dominating forwards taken after him is that due to his elite speed, creativity and puck skills he isn't reliant on anyone else to lead the attack, from defensive zone to offensive zone, he can carry the attack, allowing for a conservative defense to prevent counter attacks.

In conclusion: Cyclone Taylor combines upper-mid-level 1st liner goal scoring abilities, elite playmaking and elite offensive intangibles. This combination exceeds that of anyone taken below him except for maybe Jaromir Jagr. (And the versatility and defensive zone play of Taylor make up any difference.)