Blue Jays Discussion: At least part of the system is winning (Vancouver Canadians NWL champs)

[theaub]

A lot of these players are from AA's core BTW

Funny how Shapiro's drafting already looks better

Outside of Tulowitzki, the first part is just wrong when you look at what players have been utter garbage this year.

And everyone was jerking off over AA's system after a couple years when the Jays had a top 5 farm system according to BA in 2011/2012 as well (TOOLZ!). That worked out well.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

An Edwin for Terryfold one for one swap would have certainly put you closer to the second wild card. But that shouldn't surprise anyone. We all kind of acknowledged that the outcome was disastrous after Edwin signed for three years. Rehashing it doesn't help anything.

Also weird that Fowler (and that terrible contract) keeps getting brought up when Eyedea's preference, Josh Reddick, signed for less money and term, is younger, and would have provided an additional 3.4 fWAR in RF over the incumbent in hypothetical 2017. (To which I tip my cap, as I was very much so against Reddick as an option. Believing he was a little too beat up to ever give 500+ quality PA appearances.)

Where's Eyedea.....where da boi String?!!?

 

[stickty111]

Outside of Tulowitzki, the first part is just wrong when you look at what players have been utter garbage this year.

And everyone was jerking off over AA's system after a couple years when the Jays had a top 5 farm system according to BA in 2011/2012 as well (TOOLZ!). That worked out well.

And once again he cared about his reputation and made a big trade. Shapiro doesnt really care about reputation. He actually cares about building a good team.

How many position players did AA draft that worked out?

 

[theaub]

And once again he cared about his reputation and made a big trade. Shapiro doesnt really care about reputation. He actually cares about building a good team.

How many position players did AA draft that worked out?

What does this even mean? Last I checked his, uh, 'reputation trades' formed the core of the only playoff baseball teams in this city in the past 25 years.

But then again, I'm still not sure why my initial comment even turned into a Shapiro vs AA argument. I don't really care what AA did. This season has been nothing short of an abject failure, and it has nothing to do with any prior employees of the team.

 

[Eyedea]

An Edwin for Terryfold one for one swap would have certainly put you closer to the second wild card. But that shouldn't surprise anyone. We all kind of acknowledged that the outcome was disastrous after Edwin signed for three years. Rehashing it doesn't help anything.

Also weird that Fowler (and that terrible contract) keeps getting brought up when Eyedea's preference, Josh Reddick, signed for less money and term, is younger, and would have provided an additional 3.4 fWAR in RF over the incumbent in hypothetical 2017. (To which I tip my cap, as I was very much so against Reddick as an option. Believing he was a little too beat up to ever give 500+ quality PA appearances.)

Where's Eyedea.....where da boi String?!!?

Reddick would have really helped stabilize that outfield going into next year (and the year after that) too. Even if he doesn't get everyday PAs against lefties, that idea of versatility, platoons, etc that was spoken leading into the offseason made him a priority in my eyes (though he did get more than I expected). Adding Pearce to that equation would have been pretty sweet too and basically gives you a ~130 wRC+ bat.

 

[theaub]

I was a big fan of the potential Reddick/Upton platoon, which just shows how dumb it is to project anything in November.

 

[phillipmike]

Reddick wouldnt have come here as he couldnt bust out his American flag Speedo had the Jays clinched a playoff spot.

 

[Kurtz]

I was a big fan of the potential Reddick/Upton platoon, which just shows how dumb it is to project anything in November.

A lot of us were on the Reddick bandwagon going back to this time last year, and quite a few proposed a Reddick/Upton platoon given that we already had Upton in hand. It all made sense. Then Reddick inexplicably began to beat up lefties this season - don't know who saw that one coming.

 

[zeke]

Ohhhhh, I see... you're removing the players you don't want now instead of suggesting they should have made moves that you wanted them to make at the time. So we get to keep Ezequiel "Shouldn't Commit that Much Money and a Roster Spot to a Garbage Bench Player" Carrera's 0.8 fWAR and get rid of Jose "Give Him a Whole Bunch of Money to Make Sure He Stays Around a Few More Years" Bautista's -0.1 fWAR.

All this time I thought you were complaining that management wasn't making the moves you wanted them to make when really you're just mad that they don't have hindsight.

All I'm showing is how fricken easy it is to move from "no difference/not close" to "huge difference/pretty ****ing close".

But you guys can make yourselves feel better about the FO because some internet poster without a billion dollars of resources behind him had some suggestions backfire on the interwebs, if you'd like.

 

[zeke]

I never understood the Fowler hype in the offseason, and I understand it even less now. That is a significant contract for a guy who cannot play CF. I would have liked Fowler as the lead off man, but not at the price he signed for.

if people think $16.5x5yrs is some massive contract, oh boy.

 

[zeke]

A lot of these players are from AA's core BTW

Funny how Shapiro's drafting already looks better

AA's first 2 drafts nabbed us Syndergaard, Stroman, Sanchez, Desclafani, Pillar, Dyson, Barnes, Norris, Musgrove.

You think Shappy's 1st 2 drafts have beaten that?

 

[zeke]

Also weird that Fowler (and that terrible contract) keeps getting brought up when Eyedea's preference, Josh Reddick, signed for less money and term, is younger, and would have provided an additional 3.4 fWAR in RF over the incumbent in hypothetical 2017. (To which I tip my cap, as I was very much so against Reddick as an option. Believing he was a little too beat up to ever give 500+ quality PA appearances.)

yep, Fowler is just one example of many. Not anywhere near a "best case scenario" example.

In fact neither EE nor Fowler have been "great" signings, just solid ones - yet it looks like making just solid FA signings would have had us right in contention this year.

 

[Kurtz]

Ohhhhh, I see... you're removing the players you don't want now instead of suggesting they should have made moves that you wanted them to make at the time. So we get to keep Ezequiel "Shouldn't Commit that Much Money and a Roster Spot to a Garbage Bench Player" Carrera's 0.8 fWAR and get rid of Jose "Give Him a Whole Bunch of Money to Make Sure He Stays Around a Few More Years" Bautista's -0.1 fWAR.

All this time I thought you were complaining that management wasn't making the moves you wanted them to make when really you're just mad that they don't have hindsight.

Zeke has some pro-AA bias, but I think you also have pro-current management bias.

For instance, I just checked out an old Reddick thread, and you were maintaining that Upton was a more valuable asset (post-acquisition) whereas Zeke was suggesting that Reddick would make us a better team. Both arguments were probably reasonable at the time but coloured by an inherent bias.

 

[masarume]

Least surprising suggestion ever.

This made me lawl real hard.

I have high doubts that we spend this offseason for anything other than a gap player that we can either trade later on, or just flashy enough to fill the seats.

 

[masarume]

yep, Fowler is just one example of many. Not anywhere near a "best case scenario" example.

In fact neither EE nor Fowler have been "great" signings, just solid ones - yet it looks like making just solid FA signings would have had us right in contention this year.

There are also a lot of unknown factors at play.
Working against us, the competition could be better. I know it's pro sports but there is a definite difference placing against a rival team in contention vs the 11th best team in the AL.
Working for us, the players may actually give a damn, and feel the urgency to win. Where we are now, that's close to nil.

It would surprise me to see current management make moves to still contend next year.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Zeke has some pro-AA bias, but I think you also have pro-current management bias.

For instance, I just checked out an old Reddick thread, and you were maintaining that Upton was a more valuable asset (post-acquisition) whereas Zeke was suggesting that Reddick would make us a better team. Both arguments were probably reasonable at the time but coloured by an inherent bias.

Honestly, I think Sticky111 kind of establishes the far left on the bias spectrum. Discoverer, if anything, is simply center-left.

 

[Kurtz]

Honestly, I think Sticky111 kind of establishes the far left on the bias spectrum. Discoverer, if anything, is simply center-left.

Discoverer is definitely more Hillary than Bernie, I totally agree.

 

[Longshot]

It would surprise me to see current management make moves to still contend next year.

I'm curious what you mean by this.

In their messaging, Atkins and Shapiro have been fairly consistent. They have both said on numerous occasions they think the core of this team is still strong and they think with better health and some off-season moves the team can be a contender next year.

While I don't expect they will be trading prospects for "win-now" players, I expect they will use their financial flexibility to try and address the deficiencies on the current roster with the priorities being: right field, left field, back up catcher and the back end of the rotation.

My expectation is they will try and strengthen the roster this winter and the decision point about the future will come at the end of July.

 

[theaub]

Discoverer is definitely more Hillary than Bernie, I totally agree.

damn don't say things you can't take back

 

[Eyedea]

AA's first 2 drafts nabbed us Syndergaard, Stroman, Sanchez, Desclafani, Pillar, Dyson, Barnes, Norris, Musgrove.

You think Shappy's 1st 2 drafts have beaten that?

That would be first 3 drafts, and no of course not. Despite majorly banking on the riskiest bunch (prep pitchers), AA was capable of doing so because he had 6-8 top 100 selections pre-CBA change.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Discoverer is definitely more Hillary than Bernie, I totally agree.

I was thinking more along the lines of Bill.

Damn Kurtz...out here calling people the worst names. Ether.

 

[TF97]

I was a big fan of the potential Reddick/Upton platoon, which just shows how dumb it is to project anything in November.

I too was all for a Reddick/Upton platoon. I thought those two could have done some serious damage in a corner outfield spot. I was also pro Jay Bruce at the time, but also only if he got to platoon with Upton.

 

[Discoverer]

Zeke has some pro-AA bias, but I think you also have pro-current management bias.

For instance, I just checked out an old Reddick thread, and you were maintaining that Upton was a more valuable asset (post-acquisition) whereas Zeke was suggesting that Reddick would make us a better team. Both arguments were probably reasonable at the time but coloured by an inherent bias.

That's fair to an extent. I think a lot of that perceived bias comes from trying to balance out some of the things others say. If stickty were less of a one-trick-pony and we had actual discussions, I would probably come across as a typical AA fanboy when talking to him.

But I'll probably always come across as "pro current management," though, because I'm comfortable defending moves based on the logic behind them rather than how flashy they are or how they ultimately turn out. That's why I was never really mad about the Smoak extension. That's why I'll defend Napoli for Francisco or Gomes and Aviles for Rogers. That's also why I didn't like the Morales signing or the Dickey trade at the time... it was a real stretch to make those ones make sense to me.

That's not to say every other move has been perfect or on the same level or anything like that, but I can't think of many moves that fall into the "bad all along" category other than those two in the post-Ricciardi days (off the top of my head, at least).

 

[zeke]

Again, the point here is not to pick apart particular signings or non-signings - just to illustrate the hairswidth there can be between contending and "not close".

 

[theaub]

Honestly, the next three/four months will do a lot to tell me how I feel about this year.

If they attempt to overwrite some of the bad moves this year, keep the payroll up and legitimately try to win, then good on them and they just messed up this year. And if it doesn't work then screw it just really blow it up and build around Guerrero/Bichette/Stroman

If they decide this team doesn't have it anymore, trade some of the guys who probably are going to decrease in value over the next couple of years (Donaldson, Happ, Pillar), play the kids and aim to quickly retool for a year and a ridiculous FA class after 2018, I'm also fine with that.

If they make a half-assed effort a la the JP Ricciardi days which is one of those 'if everything breaks right, and our historically injured players don't get hurt and our declining players revert to their norms from three years ago,' then screw it all they may as well have just blown it up last November.