Assuming Mack & Kuch are top 2 hart in some order - who will be #3? McDavid or Matthews? Or someone else?

[bobholly39]

This has been an absolutely epic regular season. At the top, Kucherov, MacKinnon and McDavid have put on a race for the ages to the Ross. All 3 nearing 140+ (Kuch already above). Matthews flirting for 70+ goals. Lots of other great performers too like Hughes, Panarin, Pastrnak, etc

As we near the finish line, a few things now seem certain to me:

1. Top 2 in hart voting will be Kuch and Mack. In what order remains to be seen (I think Kuch should win), but they will and should be top 2

2. McDavid won't win the Ross nor Hart. He's too far back and just missed another game. Fantastic season with the epic turnaround in November, but he won't win Ross. And considering voter fatigue/being held to higher standard because he's McDavid, im convinced he also won't win the hart being so far back of Kuch and MacK


So - who ends up #3 for hart? McDavid or Matthews? Or someone else?


Matthews had cooled off a bit, but he's on a goal scoring mission again lately and is just 2 away from 70 with 3 games to go. He's also 10 points up from Nylander (in past some said he wouldnt get hart votes with Nylander outscoring him) and an impressive +37. Is that enough to be a hart finalist above McDavid?

Make a prediction who finishes #3 for hart below - and feel free to comment if you disagree on Kuch/Mack ending up top 2.

Click to read more...

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Matthews. Mcdavid has likely fallen out of the top 3 now. 70 goals is 70 goals. Mcdavids calling card was hitting 100 assists. Now that kuch will as well and has also opened a 11 point lead in the 140s. Mcdavids season doesnt look all that "special anymore" 70 goals is the talk of the town

 

[Regal]

Still too up in the air, but if McDavid misses the rest of the year and Matthews finishes strong, I think it might be Matthews over McDavid.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Matthews. Mcdavid has likely fallen out of the top 3 now. 70 goals is 70 goals. Mcdavids calling card was hitting 100 assists. Now that kuch will as well and has also opened a 11 point lead in the 140s. Mcdavids season doesnt look all that "special anymore" 70 goals is the talk of the town

I think there's an award for most goals in regular season, if so, Matthews will get that award.

 

[The Podium]

I think there's an award for most goals in regular season, if so, Matthews will get that award.

There is also an award for most points in a season

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

The hype around 70 goals will probably get Matthews that third spot.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

There is also an award for most points in a season

Matthews will not win that award then.

 

[Cup or Bust]

I think McDavid will finish third but who cares who finishes third.

 

[Video Nasty]

I definitely envision a scenario where if McDavid misses most of this time down the stretch and Matthews pots the 70 he seems almost assured of doing, that will be the deciding factor in who becomes the third finalist.

Undeserved fate, but that’s just the way it goes sometimes. I don’t think he and the Oilers will be too broken up about it if they nab the Cup in two months.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I personally think McDavid should, but hockey media loves narratives and Matthews scoring 70 seems like their latest wet dream to talk about, so I think he'll get it.

Hell, I could even see some of the Canadian media, particular the Toronto Sports Network, pushing for Matthews over Kucherov as the guy battling MacKinnon for the Hart.

 

[olli]

I personally think McDavid should, but hockey media loves narratives and Matthews scoring 70 seems like their latest wet dream to talk about, so I think he'll get it.

Hell, I could even see some of the Canadian media, particular the Toronto Sports Network, pushing for Matthews over Kucherov as the guy battling MacKinnon for the Hart.

Yeah and some of the clowns that vote will actually vote Matthews first.

 

[Regal]

I personally think McDavid should, but hockey media loves narratives and Matthews scoring 70 seems like their latest wet dream to talk about, so I think he'll get it.

Hell, I could even see some of the Canadian media, particular the Toronto Sports Network, pushing for Matthews over Kucherov as the guy battling MacKinnon for the Hart.

Which could be a big factor in MacKinnon winning. I could see a number of writers focusing on the goal differential, which is larger for both MacKinnon and Matthews (and McDavid, which could possibly have some putting Kucherov 4th).

 

[Transplanted Caper]

The difference in vote totals for 3rd and 4th will likely be really small. It's too bad - and it's just the nature of how it's done - that by nominating three people a fourth will feel snubbed when they really aren't.

That said, I'd bet it'll be Matthews. 70 goals is a number that really pops, he's ending the year on a heater, and he'll get some additional credit for his all-around game. It just feels McDavid has been squeezed out of the convo a bit as the year winds down and he's missed a couple games.

 

[Kingfan1967]

Toronto makes the playoffs without Matthews,
Edmonton doesn't make the playoffs without McDavid (and possibly with the division after the slow start).
If Matthews pots 70 and McDavid gets 100 assists it's a toss up. If only one hits their mark they get 3rd , if both miss then the edge goes to McDavid.

 

[Golden_Jet]

It will be easier for voters to pick their 5 players, but the ranking them 1-5 will be hard.

It will be hard to overlook Kuch, with being in on 50% of his teams goals, and a 53 point lead over his closest teammate. That’s probably most valuable to his team.

 

[Regal]

Toronto makes the playoffs without Matthews,
Edmonton doesn't make the playoffs without McDavid (and possibly with the division after the slow start).
If Matthews pots 70 and McDavid gets 100 assists it's a toss up. If only one hits their mark they get 3rd , if both miss then the edge goes to McDavid.

Leafs haven’t been as good as usual this year without Matthews on the ice and the Oilers have been much stronger than usual without McDavid on the ice. I’m not sure if their relative value is all that different this year.

 

[dirtydanglez]

east coast bias probably works in matthews favor for this one.

 

[AvroArrow]

Toronto makes the playoffs without Matthews,
Edmonton doesn't make the playoffs without McDavid (and possibly with the division after the slow start).
If Matthews pots 70 and McDavid gets 100 assists it's a toss up. If only one hits their mark they get 3rd , if both miss then the edge goes to McDavid.

Not this year they don't, in years past I would agree with that statement.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Which could be a big factor in MacKinnon winning. I could see a number of writers focusing on the goal differential, which is larger for both MacKinnon and Matthews (and McDavid, which could possibly have some putting Kucherov 4th).

Which is actually misleading because when you look at relative to their team, Kucherov's right up there with the rest of them.

Someone posted the stat in a different thread where even though Kucherov's only like a +5 at 5on5, the team without him on the ice is like -20 or so. So the difference between Tampa with Kucherov on the ice versus without him on the ice is pretty much on par with the difference between the other three with/without them.

 

[Regal]

Which is actually misleading because when you look at relative to their team, Kucherov's right up there with the rest of them.

Someone posted the stat in a different thread where even though Kucherov's only like a +5 at 5on5, the team without him on the ice is like -20 or so. So the difference between Tampa with Kucherov on the ice versus without him on the ice is pretty much on par with the difference between the other three with/without them.

I haven’t checked in awhile but I believe he’s still below the others, especially MacKinnon, but they’re all strong there

 

[The Macho King]

Kucherov will finish 3rd. Take that shit to the bank.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Here's how each of the top six scorers look in terms of driving their team's goal differential at 5v5:

Player	GF	GA	x-GF	x-GA	R-ON	R-OFF	Change
MacKinnon	98​	61​	91​	99​	1.61	0.92	74.8%​
Matthews	81​	46​	114​	110​	1.76	1.04	69.9%​
McDavid	86​	55​	93​	85​	1.56	1.09	42.9%​
Kucherov	78​	72​	84​	110​	1.08	0.76	41.9%​
Panarin	69​	57​	93​	106​	1.21	0.88	38.0%​
Pastrnak	70​	45​	100​	85​	1.56	1.18	32.2%​

There's a lot that isn't taken into account here. It doesn't consider strength of linemates. It doesn't consider zone starts. And it doesn't take anything other than 5v5 situations into account. But, strictly in terms of which players appear to improve their team's goal differential to the greatest extent, it's close between MacKinnon and Matthews. There's little separating McDavid, Kucherov and (maybe surprisingly) Panarin.

I also looked at Crosby and Ovechkin. Both of them are having great seasons, especially for their age, but are driving their team's results (at 5v5) much less than the six players above.

Looking at the same data a different way:

Player	GF%	x-GF%	Change
MacKinnon	61.6%​	47.9%​	+13.7%​
Matthews	63.8%​	50.9%​	+12.9%​
McDavid	61.0%​	52.2%​	+8.7%​
Kucherov	52.0%​	43.3%​	+8.7%​
Panarin	54.8%​	46.7%​	+8.0%​
Pastrnak	60.9%​	54.1%​	+6.8%​

The biggest surprise - how bad Colorado has been (again, at 5v5) when MacKinnon is off the ice.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

If macdavid doesnt play any remaining games, matthews hit 70 and might place 3rd.

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

I feel like voter fatigue might get McDavid a lower placement in the trophy race.

 

[dalewood12]

If Matthews hits 70 goals, I think he’s a Hart finalist, likely knocking out one of Kuch or McDavid.