Around the NHL II

[Whileee]

The good analytics minds seem to be comfortable in their assessments since they know outliers exists and it's an opportunity to bask in the magic that is the Leafs (sic) ineptitude.

But the analytics-adjacent pundits and the dumbasses are getting real defensive about this one:





Imagine thinking two teams that added Zach Bogosian are even examples of analytics teams. Which specifically points to the real reason that analytics don't work--nobody's who's ever in a position to double down on them ever does. None of them have the stomach to see it through to its logical conclusion. Dubas won the civil war then just did the same things Mark Hunter would have done anyhow. @garret9 summed it up nicely:



The Leafs weren't an analytics team. They were following the Jim Rutherford Penguins model: have your elite, tanked-for core and add shitty dinosaur-beloved players to them until something clicks.

My goodness, there are some sensitive nerves out there in the hockey commentariat. Too many lauded Dubas and the Leafs for investing in "analytics", but if you follow their actual moves, they certainly don't seem very aligned with smart analyses.

Meanwhile, immediately after the Jets sweep of the Oilers, there was a chorus of excuse-making from some sensitive members of the analytics social media domain, like the ridiculous claim that it was all about refs letting the Jets clutch and grab McDavid for 4 games. Instead, maybe they should stop being so defensive and just explain that hockey has a lot of randomness and unpredictability, and goaltending performance is underrated by some models as a factor in games and series.

Garret is a notable exception...

 

[Jack7222]

The good analytics minds seem to be comfortable in their assessments since they know outliers exists and it's an opportunity to bask in the magic that is the Leafs (sic) ineptitude.

But the analytics-adjacent pundits and the dumbasses are getting real defensive about this one:





Imagine thinking two teams that added Zach Bogosian are even examples of analytics teams. Which specifically points to the real reason that analytics don't work--nobody's who's ever in a position to double down on them ever does. None of them have the stomach to see it through to its logical conclusion. Dubas won the civil war then just did the same things Mark Hunter would have done anyhow. @garret9 summed it up nicely:



The Leafs weren't an analytics team. They were following the Jim Rutherford Penguins model: have your elite, tanked-for core and add shitty dinosaur-beloved players to them until something clicks.

Great post. I think what the NHL playoffs teaches more than anything every year is that people love stories and can't help but create them, and that hockey has a ton of randomness.

We all watched the Edmonton series, and McDavid was incredibly dangerous. If he had gotten a couple of different bounces, and if Helle hadn't been in top form, hey... it could have been a totally different series. Then, what, suddenly McDavid is a playoff performer. Instead he doesn't have what it takes, Edmonton org is in trouble, Winnipeg figured out how to shut him down, etc.

I thought it was funny during the MTL - TOR game last night when Eliotte Friedman talked about how whichever organization lost would have some really big questions asked. Winning a game 7 means everything is great, losing means you need to rethink everything. Heh.

I have a lot of respect for anyone who has the patience and the stomach to advocate for analytical approaches in a sport with so much emotion and so much chaos.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

My goodness, there are some sensitive nerves out there in the hockey commentariat. Too many lauded Dubas and the Leafs for investing in "analytics", but if you follow their actual moves, they certainly don't seem very aligned with smart analyses.

Meanwhile, immediately after the Jets sweep of the Oilers, there was a chorus of excuse-making from some sensitive members of the analytics social media domain, like the ridiculous claim that it was all about refs letting the Jets clutch and grab McDavid for 4 games. Instead, maybe they should stop being so defensive and just explain that hockey has a lot of randomness and unpredictability, and goaltending performance is underrated by some models as a factor in games and series.

Garret is a notable exception...

This Amazon series may crucify a few people in “the organization” maybe an episode on superstats or something along those lines.

 

[EpochLink]

Spezza has had a great career and his 75 playoff points in 92 games tells me he's also shown up and played well in the playoffs.

I would welcome him on the Jets if he would come here.

Spezza could’ve been a HOF player but injuries and lack of consistency played a part in his career.

Great centre though in his prime.

 

[Evil Little]

My goodness, there are some sensitive nerves out there in the hockey commentariat. Too many lauded Dubas and the Leafs for investing in "analytics", but if you follow their actual moves, they certainly don't seem very aligned with smart analyses.

Meanwhile, immediately after the Jets sweep of the Oilers, there was a chorus of excuse-making from some sensitive members of the analytics social media domain, like the ridiculous claim that it was all about refs letting the Jets clutch and grab McDavid for 4 games. Instead, maybe they should stop being so defensive and just explain that hockey has a lot of randomness and unpredictability, and goaltending performance is underrated by some models as a factor in games and series.

Garret is a notable exception...

Nicely nuanced thread here (should read correctly top-to bottom):




(media limits; continued on next post)...

 

[Evil Little]

By analytical measures, every team that has won has done so having made good and bad moves.

Every team that has lost has done so having made good and bad moves.

You're not going to predict which of those have an outsized impact in any given series, so just keep making the best moves you can possibly make instead of buying into hype, narratives, etc.

Buuuuut, by that same measure, if you're lacking, say, a top 4 defenceman don't automatically count the whole team out from the get-go because of it. The number of Jets 'fans' who've basically wanted them to tank this year is disheartening and indicative of their unfamiliarity with history, and/or a possible desire to repeat it.

(@garret9 )

 

[SUX2BU]

from a guy who knows Jack shit on hockey
Lol, leaves, hee hee hee......

 

[Evil Little]

Luszczszyn with the self own; now tweeting bilingually as a Habs fan:

 

[Hunter368]

Thread limit

 

[Ducky10]

View attachment 441927

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