Around the NHL 2017-2018 Offseason Edition

[Redder Winger]

Fans on this board would say it's time to blow the team up and tank for top picks. Their window to truly content is closed. They are now first and second round exit fodder.

The contracts for Keith, Toews, and Kane all end after the 2022-23 season. Seabrook's the following season. They have $33 million tied up into those four players for at least the next five years. They also have $14 million tied up for at least the next three seasons into Saad, Anisimov, and Murphy and have Hossa's LTIR of $5.2 million for the next three.

Here's why I don't buy it.
Toews, Kane and Keith, and to a lesser extent, Seabrook, are all very good players.
Toews and Kane are 29 and 28. Still pretty close to their sweet spots. Keith and Seabrook are older. But Lidstrom and Rafalski were older in Detroit.
I think they massively downgraded from Panarin to Saad.
Debrincat can help. I think he's a legit top 9 forward. Hartman and Schmaltz are decent for 21 and 22 year olds.
I like Forsling on their back end. Connor Muprhy is off to a terrrible start. If he can improve, that's huge. Rutta has been pretty good for a guy who came out of nowhere and could help the team for a few years.

I don't put too much stock into a Red Wings/Hawks comparison because Bowman has been unafraid of trading his players since his first cup victory. He's been rebuilding on the fly since Cup 1.

Bowman's big contracts to Toews and Kane were unavoidable. They've definitely hurt, especially because the cap growth has flattened over the last five years. Still, the Hawks aren't far away from contention.

Bowman has a three to four year window with this group. He needs Debrincat and Schmaltz and Hartman to improve. He needs Murphy and Forsling to turn into top 4 NHL defensemen. If that happens, the Hawks should have the manpower to contend.

The question then becomes, is the team tuning out Quennville?

If the Hawks are a middle of the road team when Toews and Kane are 34 and 33, then it's obviously time for a massive rebuild. Until then, I think you've got to treat this group like a contender.

Bowman needs to get over his Holland-esque "bring them all back" trades.

 

[Redder Winger]

Nah. I don't remember anyone saying the Wings needed to blow it up until Dats and Z were like 33/34 and Lidstrom retired or was in his last season. Kane and Toews are 28 and 29. So maybe in 3-4 years when Duncan Keith retires or is in his last season, you could say that.

I never read about calls to 'blow it up" until the last two years.

Holland needed to start the "rebuild on the fly" mantra about 4 years before he started talking about it (about two years ago).

By the time Holland realized it was time to "rebuild on the fly" there was no choice but to blow it up or watch it die slowly.

 

[Winger98]

re: Hawks.

Just a general response here but when talking about their cup chances and how long they could still make a run, go back and eyeball cup winners for the past twenty or so years and see how many had a core in their 30s? Yeah, Toews and Kane aren't there yet, but they aren't far enough off for me to really exclude them from this - especially with Keith and Seabrook being older and their blueline not being that great behind them.

I think the big three from the past decade or so -Pitt, Chicago, LA - are officially on the downslope of their runs. They can still be dangerous, if they get a bit fortunate they can still go on a run (Pitt last year), but I think we're going to start seeing a different group of teams begin to emerge in both conferences as the more consistent threats.

 

[Claypool]

Here's why I don't buy it.
Toews, Kane and Keith, and to a lesser extent, Seabrook, are all very good players.

Chicago hasn't won a playoff series in two years. They might not make the playoffs this season. This team has been trending downward since its last Cup win. Outside of Kane, none of those players are elite anymore.

 

[Redder Winger]

Chicago hasn't won a playoff series in two years. They might not make the playoffs this season. This team has been trending downward since its last Cup win. Outside of Kane, none of those players are elite anymore.

Keith is coming off a 50+ season.
Toews, if I needed a center to win a playoff series, would be in my top 5.
Kane is an elite offensive force.
Seabrook is 1 1/4 seasons removed from a career high 14 goals. He's just 32. Defensemen typically age better than forwards.

Last year the Hawks posted 109 points - the second best total in the long history of the franchise.

So yeah, while there are definitely warning signs, it's best not to be silly about it.

Chicago, to my mind, is still a legit contender for the cup.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Keith is coming off a 50+ season.
Toews, if I needed a center to win a playoff series, would be in my top 5.
Kane is an elite offensive force.
Seabrook is 1 1/4 seasons removed from a career high 14 goals. He's just 32. Defensemen typically age better than forwards.

Last year the Hawks posted 109 points - the second best total in the long history of the franchise.

So yeah, while there are definitely warning signs, it's best not to be silly about it.

Chicago, to my mind, is still a legit contender for the cup.

Physical D-man don't, so I don't think people are going to like what Seabrook looks like.

Toews looks to have rebounded again a little by getting Saad back. Still I don't think he is in my top 5 there, certainly not if he doesn't have Kane actually driving all the offense on his new team...

Kane and Keith remain elite to me. The day Keith starts to decline noticeably that sucker is over.

I think if things fall their way they have a couple more runs there. But if Keith declines even a little they are in trouble. Seabrook is already in decline. Toews seems to have plateaued a little. I just think their problems are real, they are a bubble playoff team and I don't like their blue-line at all come the post-season should they qualify.

 

[Redder Winger]

Physical D-man don't, so I don't think people are going to like what Seabrook looks like.

Toews looks to have rebounded again a little by getting Saad back. Still I don't think he is in my top 5 there, certainly not if he doesn't have Kane actually driving all the offense on his new team...

Kane and Keith remain elite to me. The day Keith starts to decline noticeably that sucker is over.

I think if things fall their way they have a couple more runs there. But if Keith declines even a little they are in trouble. Seabrook is already in decline. Toews seems to have plateaued a little. I just think their problems are real, they are a bubble playoff team and I don't like their blue-line at all come the post-season should they qualify.

Zdeno Chara, while obviously not the same defenseman he was earlier in his career, was still effective at 39.
Since his sophomore year, Seabrook has missed 14 games in 12 years.

Playing center isn't only about offense.
Crosby. Toews. Bergeron. Kopitar.

There are some up and comers, like McDavid, Matthews and Barkov (maybe right now the guy I'd want most of the younger guys.
But if I have one seven game series. Toews is top five for me.
Proven winner. Proven at both sides of the ice.

I see people talking about the Red Wings like they're a bubble team.
Chicago is worlds better than Detroit at the moment, despite the current records.

 

[Heaton]

Looks like Yzerman did pretty well on that Drouin deal, Serg looks legit.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Looks like Yzerman did pretty well on that Drouin deal, Serg looks legit.

Tampa certainly won the deal, since they had to deal some cap (Drouin) for very little Serg. Hindsight, should have Montreal not made the trade and somehow spend that Drouin money 5.5m on a UFA centre or winger or made a lesser deal and kept Serg

 

[chances14]

Sheahan gets his first goal as a penguin.... an empty netter

 

[Filppula]

Yeah I'm not counting that goal. Still goalless for Pittsburgh and the seaon.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Sheahan gets his first goal as a penguin.... an empty netter

Pittsburgh is the luckiest unluckiest team ever. Of course. They are playing bad. Have bad luck and yet. In a playoff spot

They’re gonna win the cup again arent they

 

[chances14]

Pittsburgh is the luckiest unluckiest team ever. Of course. They are playing bad. Have bad luck and yet. In a playoff spot

They’re gonna win the cup again arent they

Unfortunately for them, Tampa is healthy and on a mission. They aren't beating the bolts

 

[KIRK]

Yeah I'm not counting that goal. Still goalless for Pittsburgh and the seaon.

I'm a Penguins fan. I figured he's miss the empty net.

EDIT: Plus, it looks like it's now official . . . http://didrileysheahanscore.com/

Did Riley Sheahan score?

YES!!!


(all seriousness, I get why he was so maddening to you guys for so long)

 

[chances14]

Yotes get their first regulation win of the season

 

[Leronziia]

Sheahan 2nd in TOI, 30s less than Crosby.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Sheahan 2nd in TOI, 30s less than Crosby.

Sheahan has dirt on pittsburgh like cleary on the wings i see

 

[obey86]

I thought dallas was having a good season for whatever reason then i looked at the standings and they were in dead last in their division and 3rd worst in their conference. how many more years does nill get there?

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I thought dallas was having a good season for whatever reason then i looked at the standings and they were in dead last in their division and 3rd worst in their conference. how many more years does nill get there?

Just this one if they spiral out of control in my opinion.

Bishop has been really poor lately though, so I think that is the reason for the most recent sag in the standings. I think they will challenge for the playoffs, but his time is running out to be sure. It is up if they finish bottom 5 in the league.

 

[Winger98]

Just this one if they spiral out of control in my opinion.

Bishop has been really poor lately though, so I think that is the reason for the most recent sag in the standings. I think they will challenge for the playoffs, but his time is running out to be sure. It is up if they finish bottom 5 in the league.

Maybe my math is off, but Bishop is only facing like 27 shots a game, too. Are they all breakaways or something? His sv% is below .900, and that just looks especially bad with facing so few shots.

 

[obey86]

ben bishop was bad last year too. maybe he's washed up.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Just this one if they spiral out of control in my opinion.

Bishop has been really poor lately though, so I think that is the reason for the most recent sag in the standings. I think they will challenge for the playoffs, but his time is running out to be sure. It is up if they finish bottom 5 in the league.

Do you think he gets another job again? He’s got some high points in his carrer. I don’t think he’s done a good job though

I’m terrified holland might want him back

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Do you think he gets another job again? He’s got some high points in his carrer. I don’t think he’s done a good job though

I’m terrified holland might want him back

I could see Nill getting another job, I think it is all about fit. What Detroit needs moving forward isn't a fit for him in my opinion. He struggles identifying D-man and Goalies. Those are likely the next two things we need to focus on so I don't want him here.

But for instance if Hextall falls out of favor in Philly, he might be a fit there with the pieces on D already being there and Nill's ability to swing trades. Also to be fair to Nill I think for instance he is far superior to Ryan Martin if he was willing to be an Assistant GM again. He is very popular with the Wings brass and players through the year though so if he wants to stay in hockey my opinion is he will land somewhere as an Assistant GM for a while again. Stevie might lose his Assistant GM this year, if Nill is available I could see him jumping all over that.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

I could see Nill getting another job, I think it is all about fit. What Detroit needs moving forward isn't a fit for him in my opinion. He struggles identifying D-man and Goalies. Those are likely the next two things we need to focus on so I don't want him here.

But for instance if Hextall falls out of favor in Philly, he might be a fit there with the pieces on D already being there and Nill's ability to swing trades. Also to be fair to Nill I think for instance he is far superior to Ryan Martin if he was willing to be an Assistant GM again. He is very popular with the Wings brass and players through the year though so if he wants to stay in hockey my opinion is he will land somewhere as an Assistant GM for a while again. Stevie might lose his Assistant GM this year, if Nill is available I could see him jumping all over that.

Philly does sound like a good fit but about nill being far superior to Martin? Eh idk. Martin has done a pretty decent job (besides contracts) I just don’t trust him to be a GM

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Philly does sound like a good fit but about nill being far superior to Martin? Eh idk. Martin has done a pretty decent job (besides contracts) I just don’t trust him to be a GM

His primary job is the contracts, he is our contract and cap guru. That was his original selling point from the Wings when they would talk about his roles. A couple years ago he completely screwed that up. I don't really believe in keeping people that cannot accomplish the primary objective of their job much less promoting them. So yeah Ryan Martin gaining anymore power bothers me.

The Wings decided a while ago to start having a better affiliate. I am happy they have invested in Grand Rapids, but that is the big change in terms of the Griffins becoming a much better AHL team consistently. They didn't use to hire vets the same way they have recently.