Around the League 2018-19

[DashingDane]

Yeah Ehlers is low end Pasta high end. Though Nylander is more of a playmaker while they are more goalscorers. Nylander has an upper hand if he can play C, which might be a reason why he may want out of TO. He has zero chance of being a C there.

I think this hit the head on the nail. I'm pretty sure he see's himself as a center. If that's the case he needs to find a different team. I wouldn't be surprised if this plays a bigger role than the actual size of his paycheck.

He should be getting more than Ehlers (a very team friendly contract) and less than Pasta (who has preformed the best of the three).

 

[HarrisonFord]

The Leafs have ~12 mil room right now. I just did a quick, rough calculation that they will be out another 25 mil next year, net. Minus the 12 they have = over by 13 mil, minus whatever cap increase there is next year, say 4 mil = 9 mil over.

That is with all their young players giving a bit of a discount. Yeah, sure Shanny & Kyle, tell me again how you are going to keep them all. I easily could have spent 3-4 mil more on those players.

I shouldn't laugh because we have quite a cap crunch ourselves but maybe that is why we didn't go out and sign any 11 mil/yr UFA's. The reality is that they could not afford Tavares, IMO.

Curious how you got your numbers.

Hypothetically Nylander gets 6.75, Marner gets 8, Matthews gets 11. Kapanen and Johnsson get 1.5 each. Backup gets signed for 1.2. Grundstrom, Sandin, Liljegren and Holl get called up. I’m showing 2.8 of cap space. Plus the cap goes up 2 mil a year every year. Plus the year after we probably see another 5 mil cap increase from Seattle expansion money

 

[Maukkis]

Curious how you got your numbers.

Hypothetically Nylander gets 6.75, Marner gets 8, Matthews gets 11. Kapanen and Johnsson get 1.5 each. Backup gets signed for 1.2. Grundstrom, Sandin, Liljegren and Holl get called up. I’m showing 2.8 of cap space. Plus the cap goes up 2 mil a year every year. Plus the year after we probably see another 5 mil cap increase from Seattle expansion money

That is without Gardiner, right?

Not that I would want the Leafs to ever achieve anything good, but I reckon Dubas knows better to retain his #2 defenseman.

 

[HarrisonFord]

That is without Gardiner, right?

Not that I would want the Leafs to ever achieve anything good, but I reckon Dubas knows better to retain his #2 defenseman.

It is, yeah. And I agree with you, keeping Gardiner should be done but I don’t think they can afford him to be honest. He’s going to probably demand 5-6 mil in the market. In order to keep him I think the Leafs would have to make a move. Zaitsev or Marleau. Either trade/retirement/disappearing back to Russia. I would almost guarantee that one of Zaitsev, Marleau or Gardiner isn’t on the team next year

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Curious how you got your numbers.

Hypothetically Nylander gets 6.75, Marner gets 8, Matthews gets 11. Kapanen and Johnsson get 1.5 each. Backup gets signed for 1.2. Grundstrom, Sandin, Liljegren and Holl get called up. I’m showing 2.8 of cap space. Plus the cap goes up 2 mil a year every year. Plus the year after we probably see another 5 mil cap increase from Seattle expansion money

It was just a quick scan.
Matthews +10
Leivo +.5
Lindholm +.5
Marner +7
Kapanen +1
Johnson +.5
Ennis +2
Nylander +6.5

Gardiner -3
Hainsey -2
Ozhiganov +1

Sparks +1
=25
-12 (existing space) = 13
-3.5 (cap increase) = 9.5 over

There's room for a few small changes here and there. Holl is already in at 675k. I assumed 1 mil each for the replacements for Hainsey and Gardiner. Lily & Sandin will be very close to that - assuming they are ready. Maybe Ennis doesn't earn that raise and is replaced by Grundstrom. Save ~1.7 mil. Maybe Matthews gets 12. Lose 1 mil. I allowed for a 3.5 mil increase.

Not intended to be a comprehensive analysis - but how far out can it be?

 

[Daximus]

It was just a quick scan.
Matthews +10
Leivo +.5
Lindholm +.5
Marner +7
Kapanen +1
Johnson +.5
Ennis +2
Nylander +6.5

Gardiner -3
Hainsey -2
Ozhiganov +1

Sparks +1
=25
-12 (existing space) = 13
-3.5 (cap increase) = 9.5 over

There's room for a few small changes here and there. Holl is already in at 675k. I assumed 1 mil each for the replacements for Hainsey and Gardiner. Lily & Sandin will be very close to that - assuming they are ready. Maybe Ennis doesn't earn that raise and is replaced by Grundstrom. Save ~1.7 mil. Maybe Matthews gets 12. Lose 1 mil. I allowed for a 3.5 mil increase.

Not intended to be a comprehensive analysis - but how far out can it be?

There's some talk Matthews gets $13.
Smaller percentage of the cap then when McDavid signed his deal I think. Will be interesting to see how that one shakes put. Especially if he keeps it up. Could be a solid contender for the Ross and Rocket this year.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

There's some talk Matthews gets $13.
Smaller percentage of the cap then when McDavid signed his deal I think. Will be interesting to see how that one shakes put. Especially if he keeps it up. Could be a solid contender for the Ross and Rocket this year.

If he wins either of those this year he goes into that range. Say 12.5 for 1, 13 for both, maybe more for both. I think that if he outscores Tavares, even by a small margin he hits 12.

 

[Maukkis]

It is, yeah. And I agree with you, keeping Gardiner should be done but I don’t think they can afford him to be honest. He’s going to probably demand 5-6 mil in the market. In order to keep him I think the Leafs would have to make a move. Zaitsev or Marleau. Either trade/retirement/disappearing back to Russia. I would almost guarantee that one of Zaitsev, Marleau or Gardiner isn’t on the team next year

You'd better hope it's one of the first two.

 

[Whileee]

Curious how you got your numbers.

Hypothetically Nylander gets 6.75, Marner gets 8, Matthews gets 11. Kapanen and Johnsson get 1.5 each. Backup gets signed for 1.2. Grundstrom, Sandin, Liljegren and Holl get called up. I’m showing 2.8 of cap space. Plus the cap goes up 2 mil a year every year. Plus the year after we probably see another 5 mil cap increase from Seattle expansion money

Did you fire Gardiner into the sun? If so, that's a very, very young and weak defense.

With Gardiner (signed at 5.5M), here's how it looks. I fired Horton into the sun, but it's not so simple as that with LTIR. Still, Leafs will be short of cap space (assuming the cap increases by 3M next season), and they still have almost 500k in performance bonuses to worry about.

I think it really depends on whether they want to go with a really thin and weak defense and a top-end forward group. It might not be a terrible idea, but it is high risk.

 

[Adam da bomb]

If he wins either of those this year he goes into that range. Say 12.5 for 1, 13 for both, maybe more for both. I think that if he outscores Tavares, even by a small margin he hits 12.

How much will Laine get if he gets the Rocket?

 

[mcpw]

What happens when a NA coach gets to coach a good KHL team?

(Avangard is coached by Bob Hartley)

 

[Daximus]

Did you fire Gardiner into the sun? If so, that's a very, very young and weak defense.

With Gardiner (signed at 5.5M), here's how it looks. I fired Horton into the sun, but it's not so simple as that with LTIR. Still, Leafs will be short of cap space (assuming the cap increases by 3M next season), and they still have almost 500k in performance bonuses to worry about.

I think it really depends on whether they want to go with a really thin and weak defense and a top-end forward group. It might not be a terrible idea, but it is high risk.

View attachment 145287

They pretty much have to bank on Lilly hitting his ceiling. If he does they may be looking at a similar situation as Pittsburgh with lots of firepower up front. Though they will lean on Freddy pretty hard and I'm not sure he can handle that for the number of games they need him for.

 

[ps241]

They pretty much have to bank on Lilly hitting his ceiling. If he does they may be looking at a similar situation as Pittsburgh with lots of firepower up front. Though they will lean on Freddy pretty hard and I'm not sure he can handle that for the number of games they need him for.

I talked to a very knowledgeable Leafs fan and he mentioned to me allot hinges on Dermott and Lilly being solid top 4 assets. He felt of that happened theynwould be in good shape and I tend to agree. If that doesn’t happen I don’t like the look of the ad core nor do I like the money they will have to solve the challenge.

However that’s life in the cap era we will need or be greatly aided by some young cost controlled guys filling in key roles too.
,

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

How much will Laine get if he gets the Rocket?

Lots.
I'm guessing he is at 9.5 now. Maybe waiting until next off-season has already bumped him up to 10. I think he waits until Matthews signs and then gets a little less. If Matthews gets 12, Pate might get 11 - depending on how well he does this year of course.

I think some people here might be in for a little sticker shock. Unless he has something of a down year, that is.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

What happens when a NA coach gets to coach a good KHL team?

(Avangard is coached by Bob Hartley)

Am I reading that right? Avangard had 64 shots, gave up 11 and lost 3-2?

 

[DRW204]

Matthews is a beast

 

[bustamente]

Do not take penalties against the Leafs

 

[DRW204]

Do not take penalties against the Leafs

They don't have nylander either...

 

[puck stoppa]

I haven't been around much so not sure if it's been mentioned. But goals way up! I think equipment change plays a part, never seen so many goals between arm and body. Goalies are getting bruises, sencond guessing selves maybe? So many goals this year.

 

[LucianoBorsato]

Leafs are scoring tons of goals right now, but giving up 4+ goals a night will catch up to you. It's a long season and they better start learning some defence soon. Opposing teams figure out how to shut the hot stars down eventually. Video coaches around the league are probably burning out hard drives rewatching their PP and Matthew's, Marner and Tavares goals

 

[HannuJ]

Leafs are scoring tons of goals right now, but giving up 4+ goals a night will catch up to you. It's a long season and they better start learning some defence soon. Opposing teams figure out how to shut the hot stars down eventually. Video coaches around the league are probably burning out hard drives rewatching their PP and Matthew's, Marner and Tavares goals

yep. was my pre-season argument, it will be my regular season argument.
they will dominate the regular season but can easily be beaten in the 1st round by a well-coached team.
just play boring hockey and pressure their D. have a system that hinders breakout passes.

 

[LucianoBorsato]

yep. was my pre-season argument, it will be my regular season argument.
they will dominate the regular season but can easily be beaten in the 1st round by a well-coached team.
just play boring hockey and pressure their D. have a system that hinders breakout passes.

I was in Toronto/Oshawa last weekend for a wedding, they got goals in their eyes right now. I tried to enlighten a couple people on the realities of the playoffs and you need good overall defence along with offence, but they seem to think scoring lots of goals is good enough. So whatever, enjoy it for now. I bet Mike Babcock is tearing his hair out at the goals against last couple games.

 

[LucianoBorsato]

 

[YWGinYYZ]

@LucianoBorsato - that's pretty funny.

 

[LucianoBorsato]

Stastny out with lower-body injury for Golden Knights
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