Around the League 2017-18

[YWGinYYZ]

Continued from: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2353027

Some posts to get us started:

I think it is nonsense. If he had asked for 15 mil and settled for 14 would they also say he left money on the table? Probably.

I don't think he left a nickel on the table. He asked for 13.25 and settled for 12.5 having extorted all there was out of the Oilers.

Yeah, those comments are pretty comical rationalizations by Oilers fans. McDavid got what he could and I don't begrudge him that. Scheifele on the other hand probably left money on the table. And to be clear I'm not suggesting Scheifele = McDavid because he isn't. But arguably a top 10 C in the league for half the price? yes please.

If the Oilers drop $8+ on Draisaitl they are in Chicago cap hell before they've ever won any cups.

Is no player worth the max in the NHL? Some caller was whining on 1290 this morning that the NHL's "middle class" was being decimated by these big contracts but it's exactly the opposite. The middle class players suck the money from the elites. How much are Crosby or McDavid worth on a truly open market with no cap? How much would Toronto or Montreal spend? $25M/year? More? How much are they worth to a market like NYR or LA? There are 291 players with a cap hit between $3M and $8M per year. 14 guys are $8M+.

Well hockey isn't basketball where a couple of stars alone will win you a championship. So while I agree with you in principle I don't think you can win in this league with a couple of stars making a crazy amount of cash while going dirt cheap on the middle class. The middle class is far more important to success in the NFL than the NBA for instance.

If they paid above market value as a 'thank you' I think that would have been a mistake. If 20 of the 29 other teams would have paid that much then it was market value and not a 'thank you'.

I think they did pay over market, especially for Toews. They could probably handle it though - if they were sufficiently careful with other decisions going forward. They need to keep up a stream of good young players on cheap contracts to continue to compete with those 2 big contracts on the books. I don't think they have done that well enough. They will miss Hjalmarsson and they will miss the young assets they gave up for Ladd.

But I don't think that saving 2-3 mil in cap space between those 2 contracts would make enough difference to keep them in contention. It is the decisions made since then that will determine whether or not they stay in the cup battle.

The same will apply to Edm. If they had signed McD for a more team friendly 10.5 it wouldn't make the difference for them either. It will be the decisions they make in trying to build around him that will determine the outcome there. All those big contracts do is reduce the margin for error on all the other decisions.

Definitely - maybe it's true that no one player is worth 20% of the cap in the NHL. But the cap distorts things and spreads the money around to the middle class pretty well...so maybe it is working just fine?

Oh I think the cap is working ok for the most part. The middle class gets more of the pie because there is more demand for them imo. I think you can still fairly compensate your stars though even if they aren't making double or triple the amounts like their counterparts in other leagues.

I think Edmonton will run into problems because not only are they paying their franchise player crazy money but that they also are paying a number of mediocre players big bucks. I don't think they will have the cap space or organizational depth to work within the constraints they are creating.

Chicago is exhibit A of how paying stars big dollars with depleted depth isn't going to get you far.

Click to read more...

 

[WerdnaG]

A pretty ridiculous contract if you ask me.

 

[Neuf]

Not sure what's better: a second mid-range contract and then a giant third "thank you" contract after some cups like Chicago did, or going straight to a giant "hopefully we get a cup out of you" contract a la Edmonton.

 

[WerdnaG]

Not sure what's better: a second mid-range contract and then a giant third "thank you" contract after some cups like Chicago did, or going straight to a giant "hopefully we get a cup out of you" contract a la Edmonton.

Edmonton is going to have a hard time actually putting together a team good enough. Ask the Pens how that worked after Sid, Geno and Letang got their big contracts.

 

[CorgisPer60]

Edmonton is going to have a hard time actually putting together a team good enough. Ask the Pens how that worked after Sid, Geno and Letang got their big contracts.

They seemed to do well lately. Helps to have good depth and prospects that you can plug in. Basically, the new model is you pay your top players what they're worth, then you fill in the holes with cheap, but effective depth. It either forces you to identify and exploit market inefficiencies (Justin Schultz), or really focus on draft and develop. Look at who their best players were outside of Sid, Geno, and Kessel that came up through the WBS Pengs: Sheary, Rust, Kuhnhackl, Murray, and Guentzel. That's just in the last 3 seasons. That's fairly impressive.

 

[Whileee]

Edmonton is going to have a hard time actually putting together a team good enough. Ask the Pens how that worked after Sid, Geno and Letang got their big contracts.

Their bigger problem contracts are Lucic and Russell.

Klefbom is a great contract, but they need Larsson to play at a good top pairing level, too.

 

[WerdnaG]

They seemed to do well lately. Helps to have good depth and prospects that you can plug in. Basically, the new model is you pay your top players what they're worth, then you fill in the holes with cheap, but effective depth. It either forces you to identify and exploit market inefficiencies (Justin Schultz), or really focus on draft and develop. Look at who their best players were outside of Sid, Geno, and Kessel that came up through the WBS Pengs: Sheary, Rust, Kuhnhackl, Murray, and Guentzel. That's just in the last 3 seasons. That's fairly impressive.

It also helps that Genos and Sids cap hits are the same as they were in '10 and the cap has gone up since then.

 

[WerdnaG]

Their bigger problem contracts are Lucic and Russell.

Klefbom is a great contract, but they need Larsson to play at a good top pairing level, too.

Totally agree. Those two guys take up ten million in cap space.

 

[Neuf]

They seemed to do well lately. Helps to have good depth and prospects that you can plug in. Basically, the new model is you pay your top players what they're worth, then you fill in the holes with cheap, but effective depth. It either forces you to identify and exploit market inefficiencies (Justin Schultz), or really focus on draft and develop. Look at who their best players were outside of Sid, Geno, and Kessel that came up through the WBS Pengs: Sheary, Rust, Kuhnhackl, Murray, and Guentzel. That's just in the last 3 seasons. That's fairly impressive.

Heading towards Pareto? 80% goes to the 20%

 

[CorgisPer60]

It also helps that Genos and Sids cap hits are the same as they were in '10 and the cap has gone up since then.

That's a fair point. They had relatively large cap hits relative to the cap at the time, but the cab has been largely stagnant since the Jets entered the league.

 

[Aavco Cup]

That's a fair point. They had relatively large cap hits relative to the cap at the time, but the cab has been largely stagnant since the Jets entered the league.

17/18 $75.0M
16/17 $73.0M
15/16 $71.4M
14/15 $69.0M
13/14 $64.3M
12/13 $60.0M (teams could spend to $70.2M)
11/12 $64.3M

*17/18 would have been $77M-ish if the full 5% escalator had been used. It would have been $84M-ish with the formula before the lockout.

 

[Guerzy]

I remember coming out of the 2004-05 lockout the salary cap was 39 million.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Draisaitl replacement?

 

[Puckatron 3000]

Draisaitl replacement?

Naah. The Oilers just realized they have a 1 year window to contend before McD's contract screws them.

 

[Gm0ney]

That's a fair point. They had relatively large cap hits relative to the cap at the time, but the cab has been largely stagnant since the Jets entered the league.

17/18 $75.0M
16/17 $73.0M
15/16 $71.4M
14/15 $69.0M
13/14 $64.3M
12/13 $60.0M (teams could spend to $70.2M)
11/12 $64.3M

*17/18 would have been $77M-ish if the full 5% escalator had been used. It would have been $84M-ish with the formula before the lockout.

The cap ceiling rose quickly in the first few years - almost half of all cap growth since the $39M cap ceiling was established in 2005-06 took place in the following three years. Since then it's been growing at around 4%-5% per season, but it's really flattened out recently - the last 3 seasons have averaged < 3% growth. It'll be interesting to see if Vegas gives things a boost.

 

[nobody important]

Would he really leave Southampton for this mess? I would find that extremely maddening if he did.

 

[Lempo]

Draisaitl replacement?

They are collecting Laine's other wingers from the NT. They already got Pulju, and now this.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Would he really leave Southampton for this mess? I would find that extremely maddening if he did.

Hasn't Southampton just gone through some changes that might have encouraged him to leave? New owners? I don't remember exactly.

 

[Aavco Cup]

The cap ceiling rose quickly in the first few years - almost half of all cap growth since the $39M cap ceiling was established in 2005-06 took place in the following three years. Since then it's been growing at around 4%-5% per season, but it's really flattened out recently - the last 3 seasons have averaged < 3% growth. It'll be interesting to see if Vegas gives things a boost.

Some of the slowing has been due to the declining value of the CDN$

The agreement with the NHLPA says the addition of Vegas cannot impact the salary cap negatively. If it is a net positive then it can impact the cap. Not sure how long that runs for.

 

[Jetsfan87]

It also helps that Genos and Sids cap hits are the same as they were in '10 and the cap has gone up since then.

This ^ Correct me if I'm wrong but for a few years there didnt Pittsburgh have alot of problems finding actual good players to fill out their roster? Had Neal (who worked with Malkin) and i believe one of the reasons they traded him was they knew with how their cap looked then they wouldnt be able to afford to pay what he could get on the open market.

They have built up their depth now but they had a few years of seemingly having a patchwork team around Crosby and Malkin.

 

[WerdnaG]

This ^ Correct me if I'm wrong but for a few years there didnt Pittsburgh have alot of problems finding actual good players to fill out their roster? Had Neal (who worked with Malkin) and i believe one of the reasons they traded him was they knew with how their cap looked then they wouldnt be able to afford to pay what he could get on the open market.

They have built up their depth now but they had a few years of seemingly having a patchwork team around Crosby and Malkin.

The team was basically carried by the big four for awhile there. Now they have filled out the roster with decent depth...and would you look at that, two cups in a row.

 

[Daximus]

This ^ Correct me if I'm wrong but for a few years there didnt Pittsburgh have alot of problems finding actual good players to fill out their roster? Had Neal (who worked with Malkin) and i believe one of the reasons they traded him was they knew with how their cap looked then they wouldnt be able to afford to pay what he could get on the open market.

They have built up their depth now but they had a few years of seemingly having a patchwork team around Crosby and Malkin.

The team was basically carried by the big four for awhile there. Now they have filled out the roster with decent depth...and would you look at that, two cups in a row.

I think Sid an Letang's injuries played a pretty big role. Also MAF had a few bad years in the playoffs there. I think a big part of their rise is a healthy Sid playing in his prime, the new cheap depth and obviously Matt Murray coming in and saving them from having to ride MAF all playoffs. I think if Murray didn't come in an close the door on Ottawa they likely don't get past them. Heck even Kessel coming in and rocking their third line to new heights was probably a solid move too.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Buff and Bogo together again....WTF is Bogo doing in Minny during the summer anyway?

 

[mcpw]

FLA projected forwards:

Huberdeau - Barkov - Dadonov
Haapala - Trocheck - Vrbata
Hawryluk/Malgin - Bjugstad - Mamin
Sceviour - MacKenzie - Haley

this is a franchise that imploded



MTL 2015 pre-deadline D depth chart:

Markov-Subban
Emelin-Gonchar
Beaulieu-Gilbert
Tinordi-Weaver
Allen-Pateryn

MTL 2017 July D depth chart:

Alzner-Weber
Schlemko-Petry
Davidson-Benn
Jerabek-Redmond
Morrow-Juulsen

That's a purge.

 

[CaptainChef]

FLA projected forwards:

Huberdeau - Barkov - Dadonov
Haapala - Trocheck - Vrbata
Hawryluk/Malgin - Bjugstad - Mamin
Sceviour - MacKenzie - Haley

this is a franchise that imploded



MTL 2015 pre-deadline D depth chart:

Markov-Subban
Emelin-Gonchar
Beaulieu-Gilbert
Tinordi-Weaver
Allen-Pateryn

MTL 2017 July D depth chart:

Alzner-Weber
Schlemko-Petry
Davidson-Benn
Jerabek-Redmond
Morrow-Juulsen

That's a purge.

Two of the biggest ?? in the league -- what the heck are they doing. If Mont had the offence to make up for that deficit that would be one thing but now that they have let Radulov walk, and with zip at C, Price better be dang good or they are taking a major nosedive.