Panarin has 2.575M in performance bonuses that are likely pretty easy to achieve since he was a free agent and teams were bidding for him.
I believe Hawks giving him the option to leave for KHL if he didn't make team is what actually put them ahead of most
As for performance bonus hits ,, From what I have heard (Simply speculation of course) a lot of them are not that easy to achieve
If he has standout rookie year (30G or 50-60 pts) then he will hit some but it wont be crippling
Honestly not even a lock for Hawks roster at this point because he has been injured most of camp/preseason
This may have a dominoe effect. They might have to move more peices next summer ala Saad Sharp.
That is pretty much reality for Hawks almost every offseason
2010 = Lost Ladd , Versteeg , Byfuglien and Niemi because of cap (Other minor pieces as well)
2011 = Lost Campbell , Brouwer and Kopecky because of cap
2013 = Lost Frolik and Bolland because of cap
2014 = Lost Leddy because of cap
2015 = Lost Sharp , Saad , Richards and Oduya because of cap
So far the core has proven if you provide them with some depth after purges they will bounce back. It may take a few years but Hawks kids look promising at this point and system has guys in coming years who can potentially make jump
Lesson in Chicago is if your buying a jersey its only safe to buy #2 , #7 , #19 , #81 and #88 at this point. If you buy anyone else you may see them traded after purchase