Around Hockey XX (All Non-Jackets Hockey talk in here)

[hardkorejackets]

I really really really do not understand the Stars. They just got trounced by the Canucks. They are 0-6-2 in their last 8. They have tremendous star players... Klingberg, Radulov, Seguin, Benn.. just don’t understand how they can be so bad.

I don't get much time to watch other NHL games between working 14 hour night shifts and going to CBUS for games... But, I suspect part of the problem or a big part could be Kari Lehtonen. His stats are awful the last 7-8 games. Good news for them... He's not their problem in 2 weeks when he becomes a UFA

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Former 4th line CBJ Center William Karlsson is now within one goal of matching the CBJ season goal record of 41.

 

[Viqsi]

Former 4th line CBJ Center William Karlsson is now within one goal of matching the CBJ season goal record of 41.

And unlike the holder of that record, he'll never even approach that total ever again.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

And unlike the holder of that record, he'll never even approach that total ever again.

Don't be so sure about that.

He and his linemates are speedy and generate a whole lot of chances. Sure his shooting percentage will drop, but even if it drops to 17-18%, he's good for 30 or so goals.

Not bad for a 4th liner.

 

[Nanabijou]

Don't be so sure about that.

He and his linemates are speedy and generate a whole lot of chances. Sure his shooting percentage will drop, but even if it drops to 17-18%, he's good for 30 or so goals.

Not bad for a 4th liner.

It's a good thing then that Jarmo upgraded from Saad to Panarin. Oh, I forgot, you don't give Jarmo credit for that trade because it was Bowman's doing, and it fell into Jarmo's lap...

 

[Cyclones Rock]

It's a good thing then that Jarmo upgraded from Saad to Panarin. Oh, I forgot, you don't give Jarmo credit for that trade because it was Bowman's doing, and it fell into Jarmo's lap...

That would be correct.

I think that he'd admit to that.

 

[Viqsi]

Don't be so sure about that.

He and his linemates are speedy and generate a whole lot of chances. Sure his shooting percentage will drop, but even if it drops to 17-18%, he's good for 30 or so goals.

Not bad for a 4th liner.

"Even if" it drops to the career shooting average of Wayne Gretzky.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

"Even if" it drops to the career shooting average of Wayne Gretzky.

You're rooting hard against him. Obviously.

Jarmo goofed. End of story.

 

[Viqsi]

You're rooting hard against him. Obviously.

Jarmo goofed. End of story.

I'm not rooting against him, I'm looking at reality. Do you have any idea how many folks in the modern era (read: since the lockout) have actually shot at 17% or above throughout their careers? Three: Alex Tanguay, Andrew Brunette, and Mark Parrish. (Gary Roberts' career average is above that, but he didn't achieve it during the modern era). Not a single one of them ever made it above 30 goals during their careers, and only Parrish ever reached 30 at any point (before the lockout). Steven ****ing Stamkos's career SH% is 16.71% and he's the current NHL leader; next is Brad Marchand at 15.99%.

That "even if" suggests that you believe the worst-case-scenario for Karlsson is that he ends up the greatest shooter in the NHL of this era. Come the **** on.

Reference available here if you'd like to double-check.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

It's not about career. It's about seasons. He can shoot 17-20%. He can also generate more shots.

NHL.com - Stats

22 players are shooting at 17% or better this year.

 

[Viqsi]

It's not about career. It's about seasons. He can shoot 17-20%. He can also generate more shots.

You're rooting hard against Jarmo. Obviously.

It ain't happening. End of story.

 

[blahblah]

And unlike the holder of that record, he'll never even approach that total ever again.

Bold statement. What is interesting about him is that he hasn't dropped beneath 14% for a month this season. He's also scored 6 or 7 goals a month since the start of December. His shot total has started to become more consistent around 2.5 per game. He's had 20 goals in his last 39 games on 96 shots.

We've seen a lot of players go on a rampage for a month or two and inflate totals, but his season has been surprisingly consistent the whole season. I don't know what that is going to translate to over his career and it seems unlikely that he would be able to keep up that shot percentage. However we have seen players consistently flirt around that 15-17% mark.

Is it unrealistic to think that his shot total could climb as well?

We shall see. Either way, we didn't do a very good job of evaluating him when we had him (we're not the best at that). I knew he had another level, but I didn't think it would be this.

 

[Viqsi]

Bold statement. What is interesting about him is that he hasn't dropped beneath 14% for a month this season. He's also scored 6 or 7 goals a month since the start of December. His shot total has started to become more consistent around 2.5 per game. He's had 20 goals in his last 39 games on 96 shots.

We've seen a lot of players go on a rampage for a month or two and inflate totals, but his season has been surprisingly consistent the whole season. I don't know what that is going to translate to over his career and it seems unlikely that he would be able to keep up that shot percentage. However we have seen players consistently flirt around that 15-17% mark.

Is it unrealistic to think that his shot total could climb as well?

His shot total could climb, sure. His shooting percentage could stay high, sure. Both at the same time, though, I'm not so certain. There's plenty of guys who have high shooting percentages in their career but low shot totals because they take a number of shots that miss entirely (going for the corners, for example) - and Karlsson's style has definitely been in that mold.

I'm not saying he's going to go back to being a third-liner. I object to folks insisting he's going to be putting up All-Star and/or Hall of Fame worthy performances for the rest of his career and then proceeding to go on and on about how we're all fools for not castigating Kekalainen for it every chance we can.

 

[blahblah]

I'm not saying he's going to go back to being a third-liner. I object to folks insisting he's going to be putting up All-Star and/or Hall of Fame worthy performances for the rest of his career and then proceeding to go on and on about how we're all fools for not castigating Kekalainen for it every chance we can.

We were fools for letting him go. That extends beyond the GM. I think you are exaggerating people's belief in his ceiling, however. The assumption would be if his shot count increased his shot percentage would decrease. Is he capable of putting up 40 again in his career? Sure. I think your contention this was an anomaly and not going to happen again (40 goals). I would have to review your original post.

 

[CBJx614]

Where's Korpi

 

[Columbus Mike]

Nobody every thought Wild Bill was going to be a 40 goal scorer here. 30 would have been a stretch. A big one. Losing him sucked and we knew it would, but anyone bashing our FO for losing him is lying if they thought he'd ever have a season close to one like this.

 

[Hipster Letestu]

Nobody every thought Wild Bill was going to be a 40 goal scorer here. 30 would have been a stretch. A big one. Losing him sucked and we knew it would, but anyone bashing our FO for losing him is lying if they thought he'd ever have a season close to one like this.

Dude played 162 games for us and scored 15 goals. Yet people say we should have kept him over a guy that scored more than that in his first pro season.

 

[Viqsi]

I think you are exaggerating people's belief in his ceiling, however.

I'm not exaggerating a thing. I'm just providing context for their predictions.

 

[blahblah]

I'm not exaggerating a thing. I'm just providing context for their predictions.

Below is your quote, seems like exaggeration to me. Not important though.

I object to folks insisting he's going to be putting up All-Star and/or Hall of Fame worthy performances for the rest of his career

 

[stevo61]

wasnt there a stretch where Karlsson was playing like 18 minutes a night and still didnt show this offense? noone predicted it, get over it

 

[Viqsi]

Below is your quote, seems like exaggeration to me. Not important though.

I object to folks insisting he's going to be putting up All-Star and/or Hall of Fame worthy performances for the rest of his career

They're insisting he's going to be shooting at 16% or better at a minimum for his career. Most of the folks who do that and also score at the rates being suggested (30-40 goals per season) are in the Hall of Fame. Therefore, that would be a Hall of Fame worthy performance.

I suppose you could debate whether or not Steve Stamkos deserves to be in the Hall and call it an exaggeration based on that, but that's kind of nitpicky.

 

[blahblah]

They're insisting he's going to be shooting at 16% or better at a minimum for his career. Most of the folks who do that and also score at the rates being suggested (30-40 goals per season) are in the Hall of Fame. Therefore, that would be a Hall of Fame worthy performance.

I suppose you could debate whether or not Steve Stamkos deserves to be in the Hall and call it an exaggeration based on that, but that's kind of nitpicky.

Is it possible that he could? Unlikely but possible. I illustrated that he's been consistent all season. The number of people that you are talking about is probably quite tiny and not worth the time.

I'm sure the name Stamkos came up from some weird reason. I don't think even his supporters are suggesting that Karlsson somehow equates to Stamkos. History suggests that this isn't going to last for Karlsson. However you seem determined that he won't reach this total again his his career from what I remember. That is different than a perennial 40 goal scorer. Nash has only reached that 3 or 4 times in his career.

I'll review what they posted that lead you to this, however the posts I've seen before on him have been pretty modest. Could Karlsson be an All-Star at some point in his career? Seems possible. We've had players surprise us from what they were when they were when they were drafted.

WK is far more than people gave him credit for. Our development team, coaching staff, and scouting didn't do a great job evaluating him. Regardless of what next year brings, he's proven that he can be far more than what most of the NHL and it's fans thought. Good for him.

 

[blahblah]

No depth, suspect coaching scheme for the team they have, bad defense, terrible on the road

They have quit on the season. That loss to Boston with 11 seconds left was killer.

I was surprised they made no deadline moves. Wasting Seguin and Benn's prime.

These kind of posts kind of make me smile.

 

[Viqsi]

Is it possible that he could? Unlikely but possible. I illustrated that he's been consistent all season. The number of people that you are talking about is probably quite tiny and not worth the time.

I'm sure the name Stamkos came up from some weird reason. I don't think even his supporters are suggesting that Karlsson somehow equates to Stamkos. History suggests that this isn't going to last for Karlsson. However you seem determined that he won't reach this total again his his career from what I remember. That is different than a perennial 40 goal scorer. Nash has only reached that 3 or 4 times in his career.

I'll review what they posted that lead you to this, however the posts I've seen before on him have been pretty modest. Could Karlsson be an All-Star at some point in his career? Seems possible. We've had players surprise us from what they were when they were when they were drafted.

WK is far more than people gave him credit for. Our development team, coaching staff, and scouting didn't do a great job evaluating him. Regardless of what next year brings, he's proven that he can be far more than what most of the NHL and it's fans thought. Good for him.

I'll readily concede there's a significant number of folks who aren't predicting such lofty heights. It may well even be the majority opinion, which would be a welcome moment of sanity.

 

[Maylo]

wasnt there a stretch where Karlsson was playing like 18 minutes a night and still didnt show this offense? noone predicted it, get over it

Zero goals in last 48 games. Then that beauty in playoffss from his own rebound.