Speculation: Armchair GM Thread Mk. II - Now Paging Derek Ryan

[MonyontheMoney]

Treliving has said that he believes Gio-Hamilton are the best d-pairing in the league, so obviously he is shopping him. /s

Flames fans give it up, we're not trading our best, highest potential, still super young, most goals my a defenseman, 50 point d-man, for anything.

The only smoke there is are from **** muppet media people have are completely clueless about hockey, ******** that they couldn't get their interview with Dougie after the season, and people trying to stir the pot because they have nothing better to do with their lives then make up bull**** rather than do actual journalistic work.

This is cute.

And you were so sure too. Nice try. Maybe next time.

 

[JPeeper]

This is cute.

And you were so sure too. Nice try. Maybe next time.

lol @ getting so snarky when I was wrong. Such maturity.

Now Flames fans are upset that we "lost the trade" even though everyone wanted him traded for lesser packages.

 

[Fig]

Sorry for the lack of walls of text lately. It's really rough dealing with a newborn. But, in case anyone misses my drivel.... Here we go!



There's far more factors in the Hamilton + Fox + Ferland trade for Hanifin and Lindholm

IMO, it's a decent trade with an edge to Carolina, but there's far more than raw asset value at play here.


Calgary
- Does a pseudo quality and quantity trade to balance the roster. Gives up the best roster piece (not prospect) and the best non-roster prospect piece
- Sold high on all players involved (see below)
- Balanced the team considerably while also filling a need. All players acquired immediately slot into the roster situation, but can grow with team.
- Retooled the entire core in a way that we aren't merely looking at 3 years or nothing. I'm sorta seeing a picture where our window is now suddenly at 5 years with the possibility of longer depending on the assets management that goes through our organization. The ability for Hanifin and Lindholm to keep growing is a risk, but Ferland and Hamilton are very likely maxed out for talent and development.
- Gives Peters players he is familiar with BUT still gives a change of scenery. Some of you seriously need to look at what Carolina had in terms of ability to shelter their young players. They have great players, but the Canes D-core was ridiculously young. Hanifin can be sheltered here and developed in an environment amazing support and mentorship in comparison to what he had in Carolina. I'm not shooting Carolina down, but IIRC, someone pointed out their average dman age last season was something stupid low like 23.5 years old. Lindholm is the same. Think Bennett, but no Monahan level guys above him to take the pressure off when he was drowning. I think both guys continue to develop when they get here.
- Hanifin knows Hathaway, Tkachuk and is friendly with Gaudreau. I'm not sure about Lindholm, but I'm sure both will fit well here.
- Depending on how the Hanifin and Lindholm deals end up, we might suddenly be looking at more than ample room to extend and keep Tkachuk and Bennett (adds to extending the window) rather than thinking our window might suddenly close with Hamonic and Brodie expiring in a few years. Contract extensions for core pieces is a forte for Treliving. Ferland for sure was due a pay raise. Big picture salary implications**?
- Dougie has so much smoke around his persona. Dougie bombs were awesome, but something wasn't always quite right. I have additional thoughts on Dougie, but it's all baseless stuff and I won't dump it here. However, if there's something that was bugging management about his personality, it was possibly a sell high situation before things fell apart. Maybe Dougie wanted out or was becoming a distraction**? I don't think this is totally true though, but I wouldn't be surprised if news came out that confirmed something behind the scenes.

** = baseless speculation, but not without smoke.


Carolina
- Gets edge in value
- Gets Dougie who can be a veteran leader on a ridiculously stupidly young and talented Carolina D-core. He will be THE man there. Time will tell if he can handle that pressure, or if he needed more sheltering. But also a cost controlled player, which might be valuable to the new owner.
- Gets Ferland who is a character guy and can help them with toughness and has played as high as 1st RW*. But the point is he has experience playing at a high speed with skill guys. Maybe think playing with Aho to protect him but also do well?
- Allows them to move a certain dman for forward help if the rumors are true. Faulk?
- Allows them to move Fox's rights for forward help if he isn't going to be in Carolina's long term plans (or vice versa and I hear some teams like NYR is very interested)
- Keeps them from having to sit down Hanifin and Lindholm contract extensions for which it was heard Lindholm extension wasn't going well.


Asset management POV:

Purely from a currency point of view:

Flames OUT:
Dougie 2015 - 15 OA, 45OA, 52 OA (Originally a 9OA pick)
Ferland - 2010 133 OA
Fox - 2016 66 OA

Flames in
Lindholm - 2013 5 OA
2015 - 5th OA

That's a win from that perspective, but like I said earlier, Treliving sold high on all the players involved and it does seem like he sold it for assets that were slightly below the value of the assets he moved. He's arguably picking up two players that aren't without risk, but as I mentioned, both players likely flourish being mentored by vets. Dougie and Ferland are character guys who should be able to help lead a group of young guys in Carolina and be good examples to the kids there.


Ignoring the currency point of view, yeah... it sucks. Many cannot fully peg the actual value of guys like Hamilton and Ferland. They can only rank the values. If I had to guess market value though...

- Hamilton is probably worth a mid first and a late first and maybe a B prospect. More than what we acquired him for, but not ridiculously more.
- Ferland probably is worth a late first to a high 2nd depending on the team.
- Fox is probably worth around a high 2nd or 3rd due to to the NCAA flight risk, which is better than the 3rd we used on him

- I'd imagine you could get Hanifin for the package we paid Hamilton. Slightly lower than what Hamilton is worth now, but still a solid piece.
- Lindholm I'm guessing is worth at least around a mid 1st.

Ignoring the intangible aspects of the trade. If I had to guess, the end deal is converted into something along the lines of this in the eyes of the GMs involved:

Calgary OUT
- Mid first, late first, high 2nd, high 2nd and a serious boom or bust risk that could slip through their fingers in Fox.

Carolina OUT
- Mid first, Mid first, high 2nd, high 2nd and a medium risk of busting for two roster prospects

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Okay so the Flames have around $25 million in cap space, but need to sign a bunch of RFAs

My guesses:
Lindholm ~ $4 million
Shore ~ $900,000
Hathaway ~ $1.3 million
Jankowski ~ $1.8 million
Kulak ~ $1.5 million
Hanafin ~ $5.5 million

Adds up to $15 million, need to also assign someone to #7 D so that leaves around $8-9 million to dip into free agency.

I do not want to go spend big money, unless it's someone named Tavares or Van Riemsdyk (even not really him so much) but I'm not opposed to bringing back Kris Versteeg one more time. He'll be cheap, familiar, adds offense, and helps the PP.

Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm
Tkachuk - Backlund - Frolik
Bennett - Jankowski - Versteeg
Hathaway - Shore - Brouwer/Lazar

Giordano-Brodie
Hanifin - Hamonic
Kulak - Stone
UFA

 

[Ace Rimmer]

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

So what's our lineup looking like next season?

I'm guessing:

Gaudreau-Lindholm-Monahan
Bennett-Backlund-Tkachuk -> becomes Backlund - Bennett - Tkachuk when Peters realizes Bennett is a beast
Mangiapane-Jankowski-Frolik
Lazar-Shore-Brouwer
Hathaway
Random dumpster dive UFA signing

Giordano-Brodie
Hanifin-Hamonic
Kulak-Andersson
Stone

Smith
Rittich

 

[DFF]

Sorry for the lack of walls of text lately. It's really rough dealing with a newborn. But, in case anyone misses my drivel.... Here we go!



There's far more factors in the Hamilton + Fox + Ferland trade for Hanifin and Lindholm

IMO, it's a decent trade with an edge to Carolina, but there's far more than raw asset value at play here.


Calgary
- Does a pseudo quality and quantity trade to balance the roster. Gives up the best roster piece (not prospect) and the best non-roster prospect piece
- Sold high on all players involved (see below)
- Balanced the team considerably while also filling a need. All players acquired immediately slot into the roster situation, but can grow with team.
- Retooled the entire core in a way that we aren't merely looking at 3 years or nothing. I'm sorta seeing a picture where our window is now suddenly at 5 years with the possibility of longer depending on the assets management that goes through our organization. The ability for Hanifin and Lindholm to keep growing is a risk, but Ferland and Hamilton are very likely maxed out for talent and development.
- Gives Peters players he is familiar with BUT still gives a change of scenery. Some of you seriously need to look at what Carolina had in terms of ability to shelter their young players. They have great players, but the Canes D-core was ridiculously young. Hanifin can be sheltered here and developed in an environment amazing support and mentorship in comparison to what he had in Carolina. I'm not shooting Carolina down, but IIRC, someone pointed out their average dman age last season was something stupid low like 23.5 years old. Lindholm is the same. Think Bennett, but no Monahan level guys above him to take the pressure off when he was drowning. I think both guys continue to develop when they get here.
- Hanifin knows Hathaway, Tkachuk and is friendly with Gaudreau. I'm not sure about Lindholm, but I'm sure both will fit well here.
- Depending on how the Hanifin and Lindholm deals end up, we might suddenly be looking at more than ample room to extend and keep Tkachuk and Bennett (adds to extending the window) rather than thinking our window might suddenly close with Hamonic and Brodie expiring in a few years. Contract extensions for core pieces is a forte for Treliving. Ferland for sure was due a pay raise. Big picture salary implications**?
- Dougie has so much smoke around his persona. Dougie bombs were awesome, but something wasn't always quite right. I have additional thoughts on Dougie, but it's all baseless stuff and I won't dump it here. However, if there's something that was bugging management about his personality, it was possibly a sell high situation before things fell apart. Maybe Dougie wanted out or was becoming a distraction**? I don't think this is totally true though, but I wouldn't be surprised if news came out that confirmed something behind the scenes.

** = baseless speculation, but not without smoke.


Carolina
- Gets edge in value
- Gets Dougie who can be a veteran leader on a ridiculously stupidly young and talented Carolina D-core. He will be THE man there. Time will tell if he can handle that pressure, or if he needed more sheltering. But also a cost controlled player, which might be valuable to the new owner.
- Gets Ferland who is a character guy and can help them with toughness and has played as high as 1st RW*. But the point is he has experience playing at a high speed with skill guys. Maybe think playing with Aho to protect him but also do well?
- Allows them to move a certain dman for forward help if the rumors are true. Faulk?
- Allows them to move Fox's rights for forward help if he isn't going to be in Carolina's long term plans (or vice versa and I hear some teams like NYR is very interested)
- Keeps them from having to sit down Hanifin and Lindholm contract extensions for which it was heard Lindholm extension wasn't going well.


Asset management POV:

Purely from a currency point of view:

Flames OUT:
Dougie 2015 - 15 OA, 45OA, 52 OA (Originally a 9OA pick)
Ferland - 2010 133 OA
Fox - 2016 66 OA

Flames in
Lindholm - 2013 5 OA
2015 - 5th OA

That's a win from that perspective, but like I said earlier, Treliving sold high on all the players involved and it does seem like he sold it for assets that were slightly below the value of the assets he moved. He's arguably picking up two players that aren't without risk, but as I mentioned, both players likely flourish being mentored by vets. Dougie and Ferland are character guys who should be able to help lead a group of young guys in Carolina and be good examples to the kids there.


Ignoring the currency point of view, yeah... it sucks. Many cannot fully peg the actual value of guys like Hamilton and Ferland. They can only rank the values. If I had to guess market value though...

- Hamilton is probably worth a mid first and a late first and maybe a B prospect. More than what we acquired him for, but not ridiculously more.
- Ferland probably is worth a late first to a high 2nd depending on the team.
- Fox is probably worth around a high 2nd or 3rd due to to the NCAA flight risk, which is better than the 3rd we used on him

- I'd imagine you could get Hanifin for the package we paid Hamilton. Slightly lower than what Hamilton is worth now, but still a solid piece.
- Lindholm I'm guessing is worth at least around a mid 1st.

Ignoring the intangible aspects of the trade. If I had to guess, the end deal is converted into something along the lines of this in the eyes of the GMs involved:

Calgary OUT
- Mid first, late first, high 2nd, high 2nd and a serious boom or bust risk that could slip through their fingers in Fox.

Carolina OUT
- Mid first, Mid first, high 2nd, high 2nd and a medium risk of busting for two roster prospects

In one trade, BT got rid of three problems:

1) Hamilton: Potential dressing room/character issue? Something is not right, not sure what.

2)Ferland: up coming UFA. At his peaked value now. They will have to overpay if they want to keep him

3)Fox: probably doesnt want to sign with Calgary

 

[Skobel24]

Psyched that Brodie will be back with Giordano, and even more psyched that Tkachuk may play RW. Opens up a lot more possibilities

 

[MDCSL]

Wonder if we’re still signing derek ryan.

Gaudreau - monahan - lindholm
Tkachuk - Backlund - frolik
Bennett - jankowski - Ryan

2 legit RHS in the top 9 and a 40+ point player on the 3rd line is looking a lot better.

Dube - shore - Brouwer 4th line?

 

[The Gnome]

So...

Gaudreau-Monahan-Tkachuk
Bennett-backlund-lindholm
XXX-Janko-Frolik
XXX-XXX-XXX

Gio-Brodie
Hanifin-Hamonic
Kulak-Stone/Andersson

XXX Combo of one more ufa signing, lazar, mangiapane, Brouwer, foo, dube, shore, Hathaway.

I still think a good depth move would be rousell if it doesn’t cost to much cap/term.

My take is simply that Tre sees the potential in Hanifin and lindholm and feels like it was a good chance to cash out dougie while his value is high, and there were clearly personality issues of some sort. Ferland, love him when he’s on, but he’s still very inconsistent and I’d still consider him a 3rd liner, who has the skill to play in the top 6 when injuries occur. He really doesn’t play overly physical for a guy of his stature, will miss those times he dropped the mitts. Fox, Wasn’t gonna sign, good asset management by using him as sweetener I guess but it still stings. In reality fox has a long way to go to be NHL caliber due to skating, size, and defensive ability.

I’m not sad, but we did give up a lot. If there is any two players that have the potential to make that package worth it, it’s lindholm and Hanifin. Call me curious to see how this works out with a bit of excitement I guess. Things will really get interesting if BT dips into the big ufa names.

 

[Mobiandi]

Retooled the entire core in a way that we aren't merely looking at 3 years or nothing. I'm sorta seeing a picture where our window is now suddenly at 5 years with the possibility of longer depending on the assets management

This is something I hadn't thought of when the trade was announced. While I still don't like it very much, this is definitely one of the brighter aspects of it

 

[viper0220]

With the draft done and the Flames having made a big trade, do you guys think this is a playoff team? Or more works needs to be done? What else is this team missing? Before the draft I said that if we can grab a top 6 centre, we can solve a lot of our problems but I don't that is possible because our biggest trade chip is gone. How is our Centre depth looking? I think it can definitely use another good top 6 centre.

 

[Janks]

With the draft done and the Flames having made a big trade, do you guys think this is a playoff team? Or more works needs to be done? What else is this team missing? Before the draft I said that if we can grab a top 6 centre, we can solve a lot of our problems but I don't that is possible because our biggest trade chip is gone. How is our Centre depth looking? I think it can definitely use another good top 6 centre.

Monahan, Backs, Lindholm (if needed), Bennett? Yea, don’t think we need another C.

 

[Body Checker]

Tre - don't buy high on Perron, JVR, Neal .Buy low on Grabner (2 x 3.75) as he is a guy that can get 15 goals on 3rd line and move up for injuries.

Smith/Gillies/Rittich

Giordano/Brodie
Hanifin/Hamonic
Kulak/Stone
Andersson

Gaudreau/Monohan/Lindholm
Bennett/Backlund/Tkachuk
Grabner/Jankowski/Frolik
Hathaway/Shore/Lazar
Klimchuk/Brouwer

We will also have solid call up depth with Foo,Dube, Mangiapane, Valimaki, Kylington, European signings

 

[The Gnome]

I wonder how much term James Neal is looking for at his age, because we can afford to be him reasonably over a shorter contract.

Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm
Tkachuk-Backlund-Neal
Bennett-Janko-Frolik

That is a huge upgrade for our top 9 and I'm pretty sure between one other UFA forward and our kids we can have a decent 4th line. If Neal is drawing too much attention, I agree with Body Checker, never understood why Grabner always flies under the radar for the offence he brings. Seems like a solid complimentary player.

 

[Dack]

Wonder if we’re still signing derek ryan.

Gaudreau - monahan - lindholm
Tkachuk - Backlund - frolik
Bennett - jankowski - Ryan

2 legit RHS in the top 9 and a 40+ point player on the 3rd line is looking a lot better.

Dube - shore - Brouwer 4th line?

If we sign Ryan then this isn't making moves it's a coup.

I think they'll aim higher and I'm a little nervous.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

You know what, I'm kind of on board with the idea of giving JVR a 6X7 deal or something similar to what Oshie & Okposo got. He's big, he's fast, and skilled. And there is cap space to do it.

Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm
JVR - Backlund - Tkachuk
Bennett - Jankowski - Frolik
Hathaway - Shore - Brouwer/Lazar

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

If we get JVR, we are winning the Cup next season.

 

[MonyontheMoney]

I can see two major potential options I would explore heading into free agency.

#1 - Peters is committed to playing Lindholm with Gaudreau and Monahan (most likely of the three options). At this point, I would look at who we could bring in as another middle 6 stop-gap type centre to add some depth. A couple options here are:

Tyler Bozak - May not be the right “value” that Treliving is likely searching for depending on term and dollar. The last thing you want to do here is overpay in either dollars or term.

Riley Nash - Could be good value if no GM is stupid and overpays for a career year. Even if he’s more like a 25-30 point guy than the 40 he put up last year, he’d still allow you to shelter Jankowski a bit more, as he was clearly overwhelmed at times.

Derek Ryan - Has put up some good offensive numbers under Peters, even if by all accounts he was Peters’ “adopted son” so to speak.

Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm
Bennett - Backlund - Tkachuk
Frolik - Bozak/Nash/Ryan - Foo
Klimchuk - Jankowski - Brouwer

#2 - Peters opts to play Lindholm at C, leaving us in search of a top line RW once again. Some options here:

Tkachuk - Peters already said he will try Tkachuk at RW at times next year. So this is likely the most viable option without overpaying for a FA.

James Neal - Probably looking for a hefty payday but would be a good fit if there is a reasonable contract to be had.

Thomas Vanek/David Perron - Both will probably be good value signings, but neither are good first line options at this point in their careers.

Gaudreau - Monahan - Tkachuk/Neal
Bennett - Lindholm - Tkachuk/Neal
Klimchuk - Backlund - Frolik
Mangiapane - Jankowski - Foo

All things considered, I do think I prefer option #1, though I think the offence would be slightly better in option #2, I just think a Neal contract would be tough to swallow.

 

[herashak]

It’s time for the flames to sink or swim with young players in the bottom six

 

[MDCSL]

Gaudreau - Monahan - Tkachuk/Neal
Bennett - Lindholm - Tkachuk/Neal
Klimchuk - Backlund - Frolik
Mangiapane - Jankowski - Foo

I don’t know, I think if we get a different 3rd line Center, we have to put Janks on the wing. He’s got the skill to be a potential top 6 forward and I feel like putting him in a grinding role would do nothing but stunt his growth

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

So what's our lineup looking like next season?

I'm guessing:

Gaudreau-Lindholm-Monahan
Bennett-Backlund-Tkachuk -> becomes Backlund - Bennett - Tkachuk when Peters realizes Bennett is a beast
Mangiapane-Jankowski-Frolik
Lazar-Shore-Brouwer
Hathaway
Random dumpster dive UFA signing

Giordano-Brodie
Hanifin-Hamonic
Kulak-Andersson
Stone

Smith
Rittich

I actually like the top line. Lindholm's vision, creativity, and versatility would make him a better C than Monahan.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

I don’t know, I think if we get a different 3rd line Center, we have to put Janks on the wing. He’s got the skill to be a potential top 6 forward and I feel like putting him in a grinding role would do nothing but stunt his growth

In today's NHL, while you could still use grind lines, it's best to have all 4 lines capable of chipping in offense.

 

[Skobel24]

I really think that derek Ryan is going to be one of the first signings on July 1st. I think Peter's has already had some discussions with him.

 

[The Gnome]

One thing I haven’t seen a lot of chatter about yet is what BT is looking to moving into FA. One thing about our GM that nobody can really argue is that he seems to be very calculated roster wise.

First off, I 100% believe Derek Ryan will be signed for the bottom six. Outside of that, BT has certainly set himself up to go in big on a JVR, Neal, or Perron. Whether you agree with this move or not, I’m fully expecting a big name ufa push and Derek Ryan to be added for depth.

BT will be active come July 1st IMO.