Speculation: Armchair GM Thread - 2018/19 Season

[CraigsList]

He is also a young goalie who had zero experience prior. They need time to develop. Gillies didn’t pull through either, so what makes him have more starting potential?

Just a hunch. I have no practical/statistical evidence to back up my claim.

 

[Lunatik]

Just a hunch. I have no practical/statistical evidence to back up my claim.

From what I've seen in the AHL, Gillies can handle a workload better than Rittich. Gillies is at his best playing every night, Rittich was at his best when he was playing once a week.

We saw the same in the NHL. Once Smith went down, Rittich went from a solid backup to struggling with the workload. Where as Gillies looked better when he got some consecutive starts and worse just getting spot starts.

 

[Skobel24]

I'd be thrilled if rittich or gillies could become the starter after this season.

I'd prefer gillies.

 

[CraigsList]

I'd be thrilled if rittich or gillies could become the starter after this season.

I'd prefer gillies.

I’m just hoping that one of them can play around 25-30 games. If one of them can do that, we could probably sign Smith to a 1/2 year deal and have a 1A/1B situation until Parsons comes along.

 

[Lunatik]

I'd be thrilled if rittich or gillies could become the starter after this season.

I'd prefer gillies.

I suspect Smith will sign a 2 year extension near the end of the season (or just after it). In year 2 we will see Smith as a 1B or heavier load backup.

 

[Fig]

I suspect Smith will sign a 2 year extension near the end of the season (or just after it). In year 2 we will see Smith as a 1B or heavier load backup.

Agree. I wouldn't mind Smith on a a 2 year extension in the 3 mil ish range. That's still a fantastic price for what he brings as well as insurance wise.

 

[Sparky93]

Smith is 36, I really can’t imagine us extending a 37 year old goalie, especially for more than a one year contract.

 

[Lunatik]

Smith is 36, I really can’t imagine us extending a 37 year old goalie, especially for more than a one year contract.

If he takes a reduced AAV, I don't see why not, he's still playing at an elite level

 

[CraigsList]

Smith is 36, I really can’t imagine us extending a 37 year old goalie, especially for more than a one year contract.

Cap wise we cannot go for a goalie like Bobrovsky. He’s probably going to ask for a long term deal in the 6.5m-7.5m range. Smith is our best bet of having someone decent with only having to pay 3mish.

 

[Sparky93]

If he takes a reduced AAV, I don't see why not, he's still playing at an elite level

I think there’s too much invested in this team to take a risk on Smith being like the 3rd goalie to play at high level, until he’s 38, since the 80’s. He’s not Hasek or Brodeur.

 

[Mr Snrub]

Goalies drop off fast and hard once they've cashed their cheque as far as fitness and athleticism go. I wouldn't extend Smith, just delays the inevitable and there'd be a real threat that we'd have to buy him out or bribe a team to take his contract in the last year or two.

 

[Sparky93]

Cheap options for a 1B come up every year. I’d be very interested in giving Lehner a shot, on a 2 or 3 year

 

[Fig]

Goalies drop off fast and hard once they've cashed their cheque as far as fitness and athleticism go. I wouldn't extend Smith, just delays the inevitable and there'd be a real threat that we'd have to buy him out or bribe a team to take his contract in the last year or two.

But with Smith's puck handling style, he might not need that insane athleticism to stay relevant. He just needs to hold the fort for the 1A. Goalies can play to a high level and can drop off fast, yes, but IMO, you'd be able to tell after this season if that's going to happen. Furthermore, IMO there's value in having a vet mentor a young up and comer in being a better goalie.

Cheap options for a 1B come up every year. I’d be very interested in giving Lehner a shot, on a 2 or 3 year

Sure. But not all have the right type of style that is designed for the team. We could probably chase Mrazek or whoever, but if the team is used to playing Smith's puck handling style, changing styles just for a temp backup seems kinda silly when there's a reasonable enough option at around 3M internally.

I do like the idea of guys like Lehner because maybe he finds a groove and becomes a starter for us, but the idea of Smith actually is putting faith in the farm that someone will come up rather than suddenly another option to sift through if we bring in a guy and he plays barely better than the kids on the farm. (ie: Blocks someone coming up)

 

[Sparky93]

But with Smith's puck handling style, he might not need that insane athleticism to stay relevant. He just needs to hold the fort for the 1A. Goalies can play to a high level and can drop off fast, yes, but IMO, you'd be able to tell after this season if that's going to happen. Furthermore, IMO there's value in having a vet mentor a young up and comer in being a better goalie.



Sure. But not all have the right type of style that is designed for the team. We could probably chase Mrazek or whoever, but if the team is used to playing Smith's puck handling style, changing styles just for a temp backup seems kinda silly when there's a reasonable enough option at around 3M internally.

I do like the idea of guys like Lehner because maybe he finds a groove and becomes a starter for us, but the idea of Smith actually is putting faith in the farm that someone will come up rather than suddenly another option to sift through if we bring in a guy and he plays barely better than the kids on the farm. (ie: Blocks someone coming up)

It obviously depends on who’s available but Smith isn’t a safety net if he’s injuried. He hasn’t exactly been the pillar of health, a problem that worsens with age. Durability goes a long way when transitioning to a young goaltender

 

[Fig]

It obviously depends on who’s available but Smith isn’t a safety net if he’s injuried. He hasn’t exactly been the pillar of health, a problem that worsens with age. Durability goes a long way when transitioning to a young goaltender

True... as the 1G with a high workload and less time to recover.

It's different if hes the 1B/backup. He's behind a 1A which is what most of us are suggesting. I didn't notice any poster interested in extending Smith to continue his current usage.

 

[The Gnome]

I’m not sold on resigning smith. He’s an amazing goalie. But I’d rather see how his groin holds up this season before making any decisions. Some goalies can go for a while, I just have my reservations with smith due to his injury history.

It’s scary to think with all the potential this team has (on paper) to be good this year, that the one thing we are relying on in net is mike smith. He’s a beast, no doubt, but an injury risk as well.

 

[Mobiandi]

Smith shouldn't be playing more than 55 games this season. It's just not wise to risk it at his age. Any contract negotiations will only start after our season is over.

I thought it was a certainty that Elliott would get re-signed. And then he was awful in the playoffs and Treliving let him walk. Smith will probably get the same treatment

 

[Lunatik]

I think there’s too much invested in this team to take a risk on Smith being like the 3rd goalie to play at high level, until he’s 38, since the 80’s. He’s not Hasek or Brodeur.

No one is claiming he's Hasek or Brodeur. But he would be closer to a Tim Thomas (to a lesser extreme), where he has lower mileage for a goalie his age. It's not as unusual as you make it sound for a goalie to be good late into their 30s. Smith, along with Rinne and Lundqvist are all currently playing well in their mid-late 30s. Luongo had very strong seasons into his mid-30s, as did Craig Anderson. Ryan Miller is another example, he would still be going strong if he hadn't decided it was more important to play in California than be a starter.

 

[Lunatik]

I’m not sold on resigning smith. He’s an amazing goalie. But I’d rather see how his groin holds up this season before making any decisions. Some goalies can go for a while, I just have my reservations with smith due to his injury history.

It’s scary to think with all the potential this team has (on paper) to be good this year, that the one thing we are relying on in net is mike smith. He’s a beast, no doubt, but an injury risk as well.

Let's be honest here, all goalies are an injury risk. All it takes is someone to fall into your starter wrong and your season is on the rails.

As for re-signing Smith, you don't do it now, you do it at the end of the season. Also when I suggested signing him for 2 years, year 2 would be ideally to be the backup to one of the kids (or a UFA/trade acquisition if need be)

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I also think Smith will be re-signed. I don’t think the Flames had planned on that would be the case, but it has turned out that way as of today. Neither Gilles or Rittich has shown enough to not bring back Smith. This isn’t at all like when Schneider was called up for the Nucks or Murray for the Pens. Gillies and Rittich need more time.

 

[The Gnome]

Let's be honest here, all goalies are an injury risk. All it takes is someone to fall into your starter wrong and your season is on the rails.

As for re-signing Smith, you don't do it now, you do it at the end of the season. Also when I suggested signing him for 2 years, year 2 would be ideally to be the backup to one of the kids (or a UFA/trade acquisition if need be)

If he stays healthy this year, that'd be my first choice. Mike Smith is an exceptional goalie, as long as he stays healthy, i have zero worries with him as our goaltender.

 

[CraigsList]

Re-signing Smith can definitely depend on when the next expansion draft is announced. That way we can protect Gillies and have Smith a UFA that year.

 

[Fig]

I’m not sold on resigning smith. He’s an amazing goalie. But I’d rather see how his groin holds up this season before making any decisions. Some goalies can go for a while, I just have my reservations with smith due to his injury history.

It’s scary to think with all the potential this team has (on paper) to be good this year, that the one thing we are relying on in net is mike smith. He’s a beast, no doubt, but an injury risk as well.

Idea wise, I think we'd consider re-signing him as a stop gap backup option to one of the kids (ie: Rittich or Gilles) plus mentorship (as Smith is seemingly well known to be hard on himself and vocal about calling out team mates). Potentially he'd take a small discount to fit. If not, I'm hoping we look elsewhere. We'd expect Smith to play 30 ish games vs someone else play 50 and his play is strong enough to ensure the 1A has to play lights out or risk losing a few hot hand games to Smith in a platoon situation.

I'd imagine it like the Ramo/Hiller set up when they were good.

 

[The Gnome]

Idea wise, I think we'd consider re-signing him as a stop gap backup option to one of the kids (ie: Rittich or Gilles) plus mentorship (as Smith is seemingly well known to be hard on himself and vocal about calling out team mates). Potentially he'd take a small discount to fit. If not, I'm hoping we look elsewhere. We'd expect Smith to play 30 ish games vs someone else play 50 and his play is strong enough to ensure the 1A has to play lights out or risk losing a few hot hand games to Smith in a platoon situation.

I'd imagine it like the Ramo/Hiller set up when they were good.

Yup, simply put, the way I'd handle this...If Smith is healthy all year and plays lights out again, I take the gamble and sign him for a couple more. The risk is worth it imo, he's that good of a goalie. Best we've had since kipper AINEC.

 

[Rangediddy]

The conversation of resigning Smith doesn't even need to be brought up until next March when we know whether or not he can stay reasonably healthy throughout a season