Any Idiot Can Start A Budget Thread--Melnyk and Team Finances III

[Vesa Awesaka]

Melnyk said they were looking into signing him last off season i believe. Says it wasnt money. They talked well he was a member of detroit but then back tracked saying he had to be careful with tampering. Also said hes on the phone with murray during games and they are currently setting up a plan for murray. Melnyk was the 2nd phone call after murray found out he had cancer.

Melnyk believes this team is a playoff contender. Says the guys are trying hard but not playing smart (paraphrasing). Doesnt have any opinion on the coach. Says he doesnt get involved in day to day hockey affairs but Murray makes recommendations to him on things like coaching which makes me think he has the final say.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

This is pretty much inline with the majority of whaT Melnyk has said too.

The whole campaign against Melnyk was completely misguided. He's been in a bit of a tough spot financially, it happens that his financial troubles have coincided with a rebuild strategy where he's managed to put out a somewhat competitive team that was also quite young and inexpensive.

The fact that so many fans revolted against him is a bit baffling. The product on the ice has been much better than what you would expect from a typical rebuilding team. The team has some holes but Melnyk is smart enough not to try and plug the holes with expensive solutions. And what teams don't have holes in their lineups? Maybe three tops in the league if that...

Problem is, it's hard to develop the kids properly and have them reach their ceilings if you don't surround them with quality veterans. For that, you do need to spend more money than what we have.

That's what scares me....we rely so heavily on the draft, and are doing the job well developing them in Bingo, but we aren't giving the kids that one last bit of support they need at the NHL level.

Not sure who in their right mind would buy the Senators and spend to the cap every season in a small market like Ottawa. Needs someone who doesn't care much about profit. Like SenateReform said, it would take a fairytale scenario.

I think you really nailed it there :

"The whole campaign against Melnyk was completely misguided. He's been in a bit of a tough spot financially, it happens that his financial troubles have coincided with a rebuild strategy where he's managed to put out a somewhat competitive team that was also quite young and inexpensive."

Teams that rebuild usually shouldn't spend to the cap, should they?



Why not though? He probably saved the team from relocation before with his own money...

Wow....bad news for Quebec City, then. They have a smaller population, smaller tax base and the same corporate support as Ottawa. Overall, Ottawa is a bigger and much more stable market.

Guess the Sens won't be moving north.

 

[The Waffler]

Oh cool...

Is he done being poor yet?

 

[Sens Mile]

Does someone want to act as Melnyk's PR adviser by any chance? Im about to finish University and can help him out for pretty cheap

 

[StefanW]

Not sure who in their right mind would buy the Senators and spend to the cap every season in a small market like Ottawa. Needs someone who doesn't care much about profit. Like SenateReform said, it would take a fairytale scenario.

I think you really nailed it there :

"The whole campaign against Melnyk was completely misguided. He's been in a bit of a tough spot financially, it happens that his financial troubles have coincided with a rebuild strategy where he's managed to put out a somewhat competitive team that was also quite young and inexpensive."

Teams that rebuild usually shouldn't spend to the cap, should they?

Yeah, the thing is no one has ever said the bolded part. Page after page, discussion after discussion, what people have been arguing for is a payroll that is in line with team profitability factoring in the new TV deal. That is not spending to the cap. Instead, our spending should be somewhere in the 16-20th range instead of dead last.

The trigger that set it all off was the TV deal with all of the added revenue, none of which went into payroll.

Like most rational fans, I get that Melnyk was in a tough spot, and this year is a bit of a gimme because of heavy contracts kicking in next season. If we are still bottom 5 spending next year though I would bet that the spending threads so far have been like sugar plum fairy land compared to the bile that will be tossed around.

 

[Minister of Offence]

I take everything he says with a grain of salt.

 

[StefanW]

Finally got a chance to read through the Melnyk interview, and I think he did a great job. The part about his relationship with BM, and the diagnosis, is one of the best answers to a question I've read from anyone in a very long time. Outstanding.

 

[ChocolateLeclaire]

Yeah, the thing is no one has ever said the bolded part. Page after page, discussion after discussion, what people have been arguing for is a payroll that is in line with team profitability factoring in the new TV deal. That is not spending to the cap. Instead, our spending should be somewhere in the 16-20th range instead of dead last.

The trigger that set it all off was the TV deal with all of the added revenue, none of which went into payroll.

Like most rational fans, I get that Melnyk was in a tough spot, and this year is a bit of a gimme because of heavy contracts kicking in next season. If we are still bottom 5 spending next year though I would bet that the spending threads so far have been like sugar plum fairy land compared to the bile that will be tossed around.

Don't we move to 20 overall next year when all the signing extensions like Anderson's, Ryan's and MacArthur's kick in?

 

[L'Aveuglette]

Melnyk said they were looking into signing him last off season i believe. Says it wasnt money. They talked well he was a member of detroit but then back tracked saying he had to be careful with tampering. Also said hes on the phone with murray during games and they are currently setting up a plan for murray. Melnyk was the 2nd phone call after murray found out he had cancer.

Melnyk believes this team is a playoff contender. Says the guys are trying hard but not playing smart (paraphrasing). Doesnt have any opinion on the coach. Says he doesnt get involved in day to day hockey affairs but Murray makes recommendations to him on things like coaching which makes me think he has the final say.

Guess it wouldn't have changed much had they signed Alfie this offseason seeing as he is retiring. I am just glad they are trying to fix the issue and hopefully get him back 100% into the community. Ottawa is where he belongs as long as he is involved in hockey, as he should be. Wouldn't mind Alfie being our GM some day either.

 

[Icelevel]

I take everything he says with a grain of salt.

same here

 

[StefanW]

Don't we move to 20 overall next year when all the signing extensions like Anderson's, Ryan's and MacArthur's kick in?

That is not a given. A lot depends on whether we re-sign Methot, and what types of off season moves the club is going to make.

I really hope that we do move into about 20th in spending, and that all of the budget discussion ends.

 

[Xspyrit]

Wow....bad news for Quebec City, then. They have a smaller population, smaller tax base and the same corporate support as Ottawa. Overall, Ottawa is a bigger and much more stable market.

Guess the Sens won't be moving north.

Of course they won't (I said that in another thread quoting someone, it wasn't really that serious), well unless Sens fans go crazy and start boycotting the team because the product is mediocre... Reading the boards, you think it could happen but I know it doesn't represent the whole fanbase much. Quebec is my favorite Canadian city and would like to see hockey back there, they love hockey. Maybe Florida Panthers is more realistic? We will see

Yeah, the thing is no one has ever said the bolded part. Page after page, discussion after discussion, what people have been arguing for is a payroll that is in line with team profitability factoring in the new TV deal. That is not spending to the cap. Instead, our spending should be somewhere in the 16-20th range instead of dead last.

The trigger that set it all off was the TV deal with all of the added revenue, none of which went into payroll.

Like most rational fans, I get that Melnyk was in a tough spot, and this year is a bit of a gimme because of heavy contracts kicking in next season. If we are still bottom 5 spending next year though I would bet that the spending threads so far have been like sugar plum fairy land compared to the bile that will be tossed around.

To be honest, I haven't read many posts about the subject in a while so I was going back to what was said last year, people wanted to be a high spending team, which is IMO is not realistic when the "window isn't open" given the nature and size of the market. It's a good timing for ownership to save money and run a tight budget, until a new window opens. Let him pay the debt loans (35% right now?) and get that number down. Need fan support though. I would like to help more with tickets but driving 5 hours to go see a game kinda turns me off and it's even worse from Mexico lol

This year, the payroll is $55,781,371 for 24 players, next year it's already $53,500,833 for 18 players and Methot unsigned. It will probably go over 60M$ next year so it should appease the fans.

 

[jbeck5]

Of course they won't (I said that in another thread quoting someone, it wasn't really that serious), well unless Sens fans go crazy and start boycotting the team because the product is mediocre... Reading the boards, you think it could happen but I know it doesn't represent the whole fanbase much. Quebec is my favorite Canadian city and would like to see hockey back there, they love hockey. Maybe Florida Panthers is more realistic? We will see



To be honest, I haven't read many posts about the subject in a while so I was going back to what was said last year, people wanted to be a high spending team, which is IMO is not realistic when the "window isn't open" given the nature and size of the market. It's a good timing for ownership to save money and run a tight budget, until a new window opens. Let him pay the debt loans (35% right now?) and get that number down. Need fan support though. I would like to help more with tickets but driving 5 hours to go see a game kinda turns me off and it's even worse from Mexico lol

This year, the payroll is $55,781,371 for 24 players, next year it's already $53,500,833 for 18 players and Methot unsigned. It will probably go over 60M$ next year so it should appease the fans.

For fun, how does a window open?

It looks like we'll be stuck in a "you need to be good to spend/but you need to spend to be good" endless cycle of ******** for the next decade.

 

[HavlatMach9]

when the core is established and experienced

 

[jbeck5]

when the core is established and experienced

Who? Anderson?

Ryan?

Karlsson?

Turris?

Macarthur?

Methot?

Are we waiting until they are in their chelios golden years?

 

[StefanW]

when the core is established and experienced

The Catch-22 here is that they are slightly different ages, and their contracts will be staggered so they come up a couple at a time. When it comes time to open the wallet, which is just as they are getting good, you have to pay it or let them walk. If you are waiting until the magic "right time" you can get away with putting off paying forever.

Hopefully that wont happen in this case.

 

[HavlatMach9]

i guess i see that we already have core pieces, but really when Cowen, Ceci, and Zibanejad are two or three years older and better, or really once this team can make the playoffs on its own

i'd say that we relied on veterans to make the playoffs in our last two births, but this time i'd like to see them make it on their own

 

[ottawah]

NHL line of credit

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...edit-ruled-offside-in-canada/article22547432/

It would be helpful, but what is not clear is if he has to borrow in US dollars or can borrow against Canadian dollars.

Borrowing against US dollars could be extremely dangerous.

 

[StefanW]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...edit-ruled-offside-in-canada/article22547432/

It would be helpful, but what is not clear is if he has to borrow in US dollars or can borrow against Canadian dollars.

Borrowing against US dollars could be extremely dangerous.

I assumed it was against US dollars.

 

[Lyndon Slewidge]

Dispelling the budget myth

Guys, please stop.

A very sober Eugene Melnyk, maybe a few months ago, talked about the internal budget and offered a few very valid points that most people have not heard or just refuse to believe. Although I have had a hard time with some of Euge's comments in the past, I find these points, in a sense justify being cheap to some extent.

Mika Zibanejad, Alex Chiasson, Mike Hoffman, JGP and Mark Stone are ALL RFA's next season. Also to note is that these guys are some of our best players.

So if..

Mika signs for 3.5ish, Chiasson for maybe 2.5-3, Mike Hoffman for 3.5-4, JGP for 3ish and Mark Stone for around 3.5 (if you want to argue potential salaries please dont, but my point will still probably stand),

That means that anywhere from basically between 15 and 18 million dollars would be added to our cap for next season. 55+15=70. Cap is projected around 73.

Then there is also Condra and Methot. Methot who, if he stays will likely be signing for 4.5-5.5, and Condra who if he doesn't get at least 2, will probably sign somewhere else. So best case scenario in terms of cheapest contracts would be another 6.5.

70+6.5=76.5

So we all know this is an impossibility. If anything, this is indicative of how well prepared we are for the future. Right now we literally have to trade 2 of our RFA's, and as Murray indicated in a recent interview, he wants another star.

Anyways it is obvious something will have to give, but be rest assured, we will be spending.

Another valid point Uncle Euge made was, "spend money on what?". Signing marginal UFA's in most cases is just a terrible call. Yeah I would of liked Pouliot too, but would any of you actually pay him 5.5? Clarkson? These deals are terrible, and who actually worth signing did we miss?

Toronto is an example of what happens when you decide that throwing money at the wall is going to win you games.

So all of this said, don't worry about the budget. he has no choice but to spend. The future at 55-60 mill a year is just not a possibility. Go Sens.

 

[StefanW]

Guys, please stop.

A very sober Eugene Melnyk, maybe a few months ago, talked about the internal budget and offered a few very valid points that most people have not heard or just refuse to believe. Although I have had a hard time with some of Euge's comments in the past, I find these points, in a sense justify being cheap to some extent.

Mika Zibanejad, Alex Chiasson, Mike Hoffman, JGP and Mark Stone are ALL RFA's next season. Also to note is that these guys are some of our best players.

So if..

Mika signs for 3.5ish, Chiasson for maybe 2.5-3, Mike Hoffman for 3.5-4, JGP for 3ish and Mark Stone for around 3.5 (if you want to argue potential salaries please dont, but my point will still probably stand),

That means that anywhere from basically between 15 and 18 million dollars would be added to our cap for next season. 55+15=70. Cap is projected around 73.

Then there is also Condra and Methot. Methot who, if he stays will likely be signing for 4.5-5.5, and Condra who if he doesn't get at least 2, will probably sign somewhere else. So best case scenario in terms of cheapest contracts would be another 6.5.

70+6.5=76.5

So we all know this is an impossibility. If anything, this is indicative of how well prepared we are for the future. Right now we literally have to trade 2 of our RFA's, and as Murray indicated in a recent interview, he wants another star.

Anyways it is obvious something will have to give, but be rest assured, we will be spending.

Another valid point Uncle Euge made was, "spend money on what?". Signing marginal UFA's in most cases is just a terrible call. Yeah I would of liked Pouliot too, but would any of you actually pay him 5.5? Clarkson? These deals are terrible, and who actually worth signing did we miss?

Toronto is an example of what happens when you decide that throwing money at the wall is going to win you games.

So all of this said, don't worry about the budget. he has no choice but to spend. The future at 55-60 mill a year is just not a possibility. Go Sens.

There is zero in terms of new arguments here, all of this stuff has been brought up. We will see where we fall next season, and who we sign as well as who we trade. The proof is in the pudding, always. This season and last we were at or near the bottom of the league in spending. If that changes, then great. I am not holding my breath though. I still expect us to be at least in the bottom half of spending, if not in the bottom 10. If I am wrong, then great.

Spending more because the cap floor rises does not help anything. Spending only matters in relation to what the rest of the league is doing.

 

[Ice-Tray]

There is zero in terms of new arguments here, all of this stuff has been brought up. We will see where we fall next season, and who we sign as well as who we trade. The proof is in the pudding, always. This season and last we were at or near the bottom of the league in spending. If that changes, then great. I am not holding my breath though. I still expect us to be at least in the bottom half of spending, if not in the bottom 10. If I am wrong, then great.

Spending more because the cap floor rises does not help anything. Spending only matters in relation to what the rest of the league is doing.

But we have spent every time we have needed to. We have kept all of the players we wanted, and we have set ourselves up to keep all of the players we want next year.

I mean, what else could we really be asking for at this point. We don't need UFA's, we need patience while our young team grows, and we pay those we intend to keep. When we are ready to push with the core is when we take a serious look at UFA.

Look at Toronto as an example of a middle team that is pressed to the cap, or the amount the wild or Philly are paying to ice crap teams. We are looking pretty good as a young(est) middle team with a ton of cap room and what looks to be on the upswing.

I really don't see why people would default to the negative here, we have lost absolutely nothing due to 'budget' save for poster fantasy trades and UFA signings.

 

[EssendonBombers]

Another valid point Uncle Euge made was, "spend money on what?". Signing marginal UFA's in most cases is just a terrible call. Yeah I would of liked Pouliot too, but would any of you actually pay him 5.5? Clarkson? These deals are terrible, and who actually worth signing did we miss?

Well, the Sens problem isn't just the budget, it's money going to useless players.

We'll still have 8 defenseman signed to one ways next year, including an entirely superfluous Borowiecki making $1.1M against the cap. The you have Phillips, who is already a regular healthy scratch and is making $2.5M against the cap. Then Wiercioch, also a regular scratch who is making $2M. These guys combined will be costing us $5.6 million next year and at least two of them will be a scratch in every game. For that, you could have a legit top 4 defenceman. Murray's mismanagement in this respect is remarkable.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Well, the Sens problem isn't just the budget, it's money going to useless players.

We'll still have 8 defenseman signed to one ways next year, including an entirely superfluous Borowiecki making $1.1M against the cap. The you have Phillips, who is already a regular healthy scratch and is making $2.5M against the cap. Then Wiercioch, also a regular scratch who is making $2M. These guys combined will be costing us $5.6 million next year and at least two of them will be a scratch in every game. For that, you could have a legit top 4 defenceman. Murray's mismanagement in this respect is remarkable.

"mismanagement"? I'm sure when Murray re-signed Phillips, Borowiecki and Weircioch he anticipated Borowiecki being injured for a long time because of a freak accident, Weircioch not improving even marginally and Phillips regressing to the point where he can't even skate a regular shift. I guess while he also had his crystal ball out he shouldn't have "mismanaged" his health...

 

[EssendonBombers]

"mismanagement"? I'm sure when Murray re-signed Phillips, Borowiecki and Weircioch he anticipated Borowiecki being injured for a long time because of a freak accident, Weircioch not improving even marginally and Phillips regressing to the point where he can't even skate a regular shift. I guess while he also had his crystal ball out he shouldn't have "mismanaged" his health...

He signed 8 defenseman to one way deals. You don't need to be some virtuoso GM to realise that that might not be a great idea.