An Analysis on Discontented Fandom

[Rzombo4 prez]

To me, it seems like this keeps being proven untrue. And it all seems like a chicken and egg thing.

Were Arvidson, Johansen, Fisher, Subban, Josi, Ellis more than average to good players PRIOR to last year? Or is them making the Stanley Cup the thing that qualifies them as being better than "just good"?

Were a 45 year old Thornton, Marleau, Pavelski, and Vlasic, and Burns that have never made a cup better than just a bunch of "good" players prior to them making the cup? Or did making the cup qualify them as better than "just good"

I take it from your post that you do not follow the NHL much outside of the Redwings. Johansen, Subban, Josi, Thorton, Marleau, Pavelski and Burns have all been considered elite NHL players for a while (and a while goes back a very long way in terms of Thorton and Marleau). Why are they elite players? Because they rank towards the very top of the league in individual skill and hockey IQ (not to mention athleticism save Pavelski). If you can't recognize the difference between them and the vast majority of the Wings' current roster you are in trouble. Ask yourself this: do we have a single player on our roster who ranks among the fop 40 players in the league? How about the top 50?

I will agree that several elite players did not enter the league projected to be elite players. Expected NHL production, however, follows draft position relatively closely.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

They're my favorite sports team. This past year I watched the fewest amount of games I ever watched and I haven't bought anything Red Wings related in a spell. Until I feel like this team is building toward the right direction, I don't envision any of that changing. But they're still my favorite team. I don't enjoy being disenfranchised with a poorly run team, but I don't have stockholm syndrome either and don't confuse my love for the team with my dissatisfaction for how poorly run they are.

 

[jkutswings]

And I don't buy this. I buy that you believe it, but god damn it, Holland has been successful enough at drafting some very good supporting players in later rounds...

To begin with, thank you for engaging in enthusiastic yet civil discussion on this. I know we tend to have very different opinions on this team, but I appreciate your approach nonetheless.

That said...

I think part of the reason Holland has done so well at landing supporting players, is that he targets guys with high floors (and often low ceilings). That type of guy is great for depth, but lousy for being a part of the core that they really need to build upon.

...and half the damn board is filleting him for not offering up money to keep a guy he picked in the fourth round!

My opinion isn't that Detroit should up their offer for AA. It's that AA shouldn't want to return to the Wings.

But absolutely not, the Wings can't possibly find better players once they get draft capital that is actually conducive to drafting stars.

but you ask "what if you think the FO can't draft good players no matter where they draft?" I'd say you're being insanely obtuse for the point of an argument. They can pick 20 goal scorers out of the 2nd, 4th and 5th rounds and a passable middle pairing D until he shattered his finger with the last pick of the draft. But yeah, they can't find any players at all.

Again, when all you have is a hammer, everything starts to look like a nail. They use a very homogenous approach to player evaluation (in terms of risk/reward), so they'll clean up on restocking the supporting cast, but continue to strike out on finding the key pieces.

 

[SoupGuru]

The negativity gets tiring. Why can't we just watch the games and root for the team? I'm not saying everything has to be positive but it would be nice to not talk about how incompetent Holland is every other post in every thread, including game day ones.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

To begin with, thank you for engaging in enthusiastic yet civil discussion on this. I know we tend to have very different opinions on this team, but I appreciate your approach nonetheless.

That said...

I think part of the reason Holland has done so well at landing supporting players, is that he targets guys with high floors (and often low ceilings). That type of guy is great for depth, but lousy for being a part of the core that they really need to build upon.



My opinion isn't that Detroit should up their offer for AA. It's that AA shouldn't want to return to the Wings.



Again, when all you have is a hammer, everything starts to look like a nail. They use a very homogenous approach to player evaluation (in terms of risk/reward), so they'll clean up on restocking the supporting cast, but continue to strike out on finding the key pieces.

And I feel like you simply can't say that based off one pick in the top 14 since Martin Lapointe.

They have been picking, first round at least, where you either get high floor guy with 5-10% chance at panning out big time or the boom bust guy who is 50% gonna be awesome and 50% gonna be bust city.

That being said, they took Mantha. He's hardly a high floor guy. If they really wanted to go pro ready last year, they could have. They could have held steady and taken Chychrun. But they rolled the dice on high ceiling.

Coaching, scouting and player development have to be better. While they might not have a turnkey elite 1C, they need more out of guys like Larkin and Mantha. I don't give them or the dmen a pass outside of Kronner and Ericsson to a lesser extent. I won't ever kill a player for his body betraying him.

However I actually think the pro-tank crowd is giving the current roster too much of a break. They have blazing speed and hell their speedsters are actually of pretty decent size. i want Blashill or whoever the coach becomes to redass Tatar again. Tats hated Babcock, but he made him a much better player.

Same thing with Nyquist, Mantha, and AA (once they sign him). I feel like the guys have here are a bunch of guys with more in their games.

And that they're going to be picking top ten the next couple years and will land some of those players you want to get

 

[Martinez]

I've watched some pretty bad lions and tigers teams. It's ok, sports are fun.

 

[jkutswings]

And I feel like you simply can't say that based off one pick in the top 14 since Martin Lapointe.

They have been picking, first round at least, where you either get high floor guy with 5-10% chance at panning out big time or the boom bust guy who is 50% gonna be awesome and 50% gonna be bust city.

That being said, they took Mantha. He's hardly a high floor guy. If they really wanted to go pro ready last year, they could have. They could have held steady and taken Chychrun. But they rolled the dice on high ceiling.

Coaching, scouting and player development have to be better. While they might not have a turnkey elite 1C, they need more out of guys like Larkin and Mantha. I don't give them or the dmen a pass outside of Kronner and Ericsson to a lesser extent. I won't ever kill a player for his body betraying him.

However I actually think the pro-tank crowd is giving the current roster too much of a break. They have blazing speed and hell their speedsters are actually of pretty decent size. i want Blashill or whoever the coach becomes to redass Tatar again. Tats hated Babcock, but he made him a much better player.

Same thing with Nyquist, Mantha, and AA (once they sign him). I feel like the guys have here are a bunch of guys with more in their games.

And that they're going to be picking top ten the next couple years and will land some of those players you want to get

I think you see a lot more ceiling to a lot more players than I do, but agree to disagree, I guess.

I'd only add that part of the reason I'm skeptical with even top 10 picks, is because of who they went with this summer. Before Detroit ever announced a thing about their pick, I was all over the drafting threads, saying that the one forward I'd hate them picking the most was Rasmussen. The reason I felt that way was because I wanted nothing to do with a guy whose scouting report said his strength was scoring deflections and other ugly goals, but that creative playmaking wasn't his strong suit. Personally, I think that's exactly the opposite of what they need most on offense.

So if I don't like their strategy in the later rounds, and I don't like their most recent top 10 pick...I don't see why I'd be any more hopeful about future picks, even if they're better stock than they've had before. They simply keep making choices that I first-guess against, and that don't seem to be panning out into players I like to watch.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

The negativity gets tiring. Why can't we just watch the games and root for the team? I'm not saying everything has to be positive but it would be nice to not talk about how incompetent Holland is every other post in every thread, including game day ones.

I'm definitely a Holland critic but do think ideally it should be kept out of GDT's. Talk about the game.


In the offseason there's a lot more time than topics to discuss so nearly everything steers back to the same topic. Hopefully once the season begins it'll become less of the same discussions (wishful thinking, I know)

 

[vladdy16]

The root of my dissatisfaction lies more with the fact that NHL hockey has been transforming from an unpredictable field sport into a formulaic artillery sport. I was more interested in the sport as a whole when the zones were their traditional sizes, and the impact of technology on hockey gear hadn't brought the velocity of the game off the charts.

There's still some great stretches to the seasons, and a few games that are truly contested from start to finish, so it's worth keeping an eye on to me. I like that the Red Wings will be playing the underdog role as this era of NHL hockey winds down, and I'll be super interested to see if there's a new breed of Cholowskis entering the NHL down the road, and hopefully rule changes as well, to bring the pace of play back to a more intricate level.

My discontent with the Red Wings has been running 10 years strong, so waiting 1 more year to see how things shake out, if there's a regime change on the horizon or not, is no big deal to me. Detroit sports as a whole has gotten so cheezy and watered down, I've found it to be rewarding to challenge myself and find new sports/teams/figures to root for long and short term.

And I'm all on board for some code of conduct for GDT's. In general I think it's way more fun to root for a team than observe it, so for the sake of GDT's it makes sense to me to slant things towards 'there's always a chance' rather than 'the score of this game is a microcosm of all that I've been pointing to as wrong with the team'. If you can timestamp your negativity to something that happened in the specific game, I think that would be productive and fun, but generally it's just a rash of broad pessimism every time the wings get scored on.

 

[Vatican Roulette]

I like watching rebuilds.

I like watching how a team with all these assets tearing their team down, and what direction the org. decides to take.

My problem is that the Detroit org. keeps wanting delay the inevitable.

Either **** or get off the pot.

 

[Mijatovic]

I like watching rebuilds.

I like watching how a team with all these assets tearing their team down, and what direction the org. decides to take.

My problem is that the Detroit org. keeps wanting delay the inevitable.

I agree. I just don't see what Detroit is doing should be considered as rebuilding.

 

[jkutswings]

I like watching rebuilds.

I like watching how a team with all these assets tearing their team down, and what direction the org. decides to take.

My problem is that the Detroit org. keeps wanting delay the inevitable.

Either **** or get off the pot.

Make no mistake; what they're currently doing to the franchise is definitely the alternative to getting off the pot.

 

[Martinez]

Eh, I have faith in Kenny that if we are out of the playoff race at the TDL he will sell.

 

[Mijatovic]

He was pretty iffy about selling last TDL. I remember he was saying he could go either way.

 

[jkutswings]

Eh, I have faith in Kenny that if we are out of the playoff race at the TDL he will sell.

Selling expiring UFAs is a small part of what's needed to rebuild. Nice, but only a small part.

Drafting better, and no longer significantly over valuing their own assets, would be a bigger help.

 

[rangersblues]

Eh, I have faith in Kenny that if we are out of the playoff race at the TDL he will sell.

We've been out of the race for years now. And we have nothing to sell.

 

[Dotter]

This is all fine and I have no problem with concerned fans voicing their opinion. What I do have a problem with its people who are admittedly not watching games trying to tell me about AA's contract situation without having seen the detrimental facets of his game and just blame and disparage Blashill/KH for his usage/contract situation.

If you tune solely into the game highlights and see a highlight reel play from AA every one or two weeks but not the other 12.5 minutes of his game of course you're going to think his value is higher than it is. You're not going to see that he is an elite transition player in the league but the longer he's in either end the weaker his game becomes.

This. And not only about AA, but how people 'feel' the organization should opperate to satisfy their needs/wants/desires. It goes deeper than that. And since they already pretty much abandoned the the team other than to complain, then I feel like its similar to complaining about who our leader is while not bothering to get off their arse to vote.

I have not missed a Red Wings game in 15+ years. I watched every 82 games (and half season lockouts) for the past 15 years. Before that (before DVR), I watched every game I could. I've been through all their ups and downs. And I feel like that makes me more credible than those who 'boycott' the organization.

And it's not about the bragging rights, but about my passion for the team. Even when they lose, there is still things about the game that excites me. whether it be fighting, a slick move by Larkin, seeing a young player progress into an NHL player.

To me DRWs is more than just winning and losing, it's about experiencing the growth, decline, mediocrity, back to growth. And to me, Wings are going to slowing go back on the upswing... very slowly until they draft the blue chip kid.

And I see 'mediocrity' club as their turn to paying their dues for being so dominant for so long. It's only fair (according to the new NHL) that all teams get their glory. I accept that is the way the Bettman designed it. The old saying "don't hate the player, hate the game" rings true now. Whelp, that's the game. NHL wants more revenue and Wings falling is a way to enrich the sport as a whole. Accept that and you'll be happier

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

This. And not only about AA, but how people 'feel' the organization should opperate to satisfy their needs/wants/desires. It goes deeper than that. And since they already pretty much abandoned the the team other than to complain, then I feel like its similar to complaining about who our leader is while not bothering to get off their arse to vote.

I have not missed a Red Wings game in 15+ years. I watched every 82 games (and half season lockouts) for the past 15 years. Before that (before DVR), I watched every game I could. I've been through all their ups and downs. And I feel like that makes me more credible than those who 'boycott' the organization.

And it's not about the bragging rights, but about my passion for the team. Even when they lose, there is still things about the game that excites me. whether it be fighting, a slick move by Larkin, seeing a young player progress into an NHL player.

To me DRWs is more than just winning and losing, it's about experiencing the growth, decline, mediocrity, back to growth. And to me, Wings are going to slowing go back on the upswing... very slowly until they draft the blue chip kid.

And I see 'mediocrity' club as their turn to paying their dues for being so dominant for so long. It's only fair (according to the new NHL) that all teams get their glory. I accept that is the way the Bettman designed it. The old saying "don't hate the player, hate the game" rings true now. Whelp, that's the game. NHL wants more revenue and Wings falling is a way to enrich the sport as a whole. Accept that and you'll be happier

Eh, that's a little bit too laissez-faire about it for me.

I get what you are saying, but the team does need a little bit of fan restlessness to push them to actually continuously improve. I understand that it's a cyclical game, but you should be able to call a spade a spade and realize that signing Abdelkader for 7 years is a really bad move. Not because he's a bad player, but because he simply isn't a great one. Guys of his ilk are available every offseason. They're the guys you sign for three years at a time when they're in their prime and go year to year as they get over 30.

I didn't have a problem with Holland not making any of the individual trades for defensemen that the Wings had an opportunity to make the last couple years, because they probably weren't great deals... but at some point, you have to do something to improve it. In a macro sense, you have to do something. I understand the micro reasoning for not making moves, but it doesn't justify not doing anything.

 

[Martinez]

We've been out of the race for years now. And we have nothing to sell.

Mike green

 

[Dotter]

call a spade a spade and realize that signing Abdelkader for 7 years is a really bad move.

Am I the only one who views Abby/Helm contracts as "character" placeholders while the team rebuilds? Who wants to fall into what the Oilers were the past 15+ years?

When I see KH signing players, I don't see it as "keeping the streak alive", but rather keeping the "integrity of the locker room during this rebuild".

-
-
-
-

And then there is the scorched earth rebuilds.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

Am I the only one who views Abby/Helm contracts as "character" placeholders while the team rebuilds? Who wants to fall into what the Oilers were the past 15+ years?

The Oilers didn't fail because of a lack of character pre-McDavid. They failed because they couldn't draft outside of the first round and their first round picks weren't particularly good. The coaching and upper management also didn't seem to have a clue and thought because they featured cup winners in the 80s (as players) they knew what it took to build a winning team.

Right now the Wings are having troubles drafting anyone of merit outside of wingers, their first round picks aren't good enough to facilitate a new contending team, coaching and upper management doesn't seem to have a clue.

You don't want us to fall in the situation the Oilers dealt with, but the fact is the team could very well be in that position right now, just with slightly better results and the lack of top-5 first round picks.

When I see KH signing players, I don't see it as "keeping the streak alive", but rather keeping the "integrity of the locker room during this rebuild".

This seems like an odd defense to make considering the whispers that have been occurring with regards to the discontent and drama in the locker room.

 

[izlez]

I take it from your post that you do not follow the NHL much outside of the Redwings. Johansen, Subban, Josi, Thorton, Marleau, Pavelski and Burns have all been considered elite NHL players for a while (and a while goes back a very long way in terms of Thorton and Marleau). Why are they elite players? Because they rank towards the very top of the league in individual skill and hockey IQ (not to mention athleticism save Pavelski). If you can't recognize the difference between them and the vast majority of the Wings' current roster you are in trouble. Ask yourself this: do we have a single player on our roster who ranks among the fop 40 players in the league? How about the top 50?

I will agree that several elite players did not enter the league projected to be elite players. Expected NHL production, however, follows draft position relatively closely.

I've been ignoring this thread for a while now....

but you want me to believe that all the wings haters had San Jose as a cup favorite 2 years ago? The team centered around a 36 year old, a 35 year old, and a 31 year old, who had been part of the core for years, and had been settling for early playoff exits? That's now the example of elite players you want to follow? I thought everyone wanted us to tear it down 5 years ago because there was no way anyone over 33 could be good?

And the elite Ryan Johansen's 14 goals took them to the Stanley Cup. That's the ELITE player you need and we could never possibly dream of getting?

If a 36 year old putting up 48 points while being -22 and an guy scoring 14 goals are your examples of elite players you need, sounds like we are set on making a run for the cup.

 

[Frk It]

I've been ignoring this thread for a while now....

but you want me to believe that all the wings haters had San Jose as a cup favorite 2 years ago? The team centered around a 36 year old, a 35 year old, and a 31 year old, who had been part of the core for years, and had been settling for early playoff exits? That's now the example of elite players you want to follow? I thought everyone wanted us to tear it down 5 years ago because there was no way anyone over 33 could be good?

And the elite Ryan Johansen's 14 goals took them to the Stanley Cup. That's the ELITE player you need and we could never possibly dream of getting?

If a 36 year old putting up 48 points while being -22 and an guy scoring 14 goals are your examples of elite players you need, sounds like we are set on making a run for the cup.

What is your point here?

You're referencing teams with older elite players... we need to find elite players... then maybe talk about if we can contend with older elite players?

I mean the only question right now is how are we going to get elite players. I have no idea why on earth you are talking about the Nashville Predators and the San Jose Sharks, as they are 0% in a comparable situation to what we are currently.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

I've been ignoring this thread for a while now....

but you want me to believe that all the wings haters had San Jose as a cup favorite 2 years ago? The team centered around a 36 year old, a 35 year old, and a 31 year old, who had been part of the core for years, and had been settling for early playoff exits? That's now the example of elite players you want to follow? I thought everyone wanted us to tear it down 5 years ago because there was no way anyone over 33 could be good?

And the elite Ryan Johansen's 14 goals took them to the Stanley Cup. That's the ELITE player you need and we could never possibly dream of getting?

If a 36 year old putting up 48 points while being -22 and an guy scoring 14 goals are your examples of elite players you need, sounds like we are set on making a run for the cup.

More straw men. No one is saying that players over 33 couldn't be good.

The season you're referring to Thornton had 82 points and was a +25. Pavelski 78 points +25. Burns with 75 points. Then throw in Marleau, Couture, Vlasic, Hertl.

Do you really think the Wings roster has been anything close to that in the last few years?

When's the last time the Wings had a 75 point player, let alone two of them? The Wings aren't even a close comparable to the Sharks.

 

[izlez]

More straw men. No one is saying that players over 33 couldn't be good.

The season you're referring to Thornton had 82 points and was a +25. Pavelski 78 points +25. Burns with 75 points. Then throw in Marleau, Couture, Vlasic, Hertl.

Do you really think the Wings roster has been anything close to that in the last few years?

When's the last time the Wings had a 75 point player, let alone two of them? The Wings aren't even a close comparable to the Sharks.

Right. So you need 75 point players to be good enough to get to the cup.


It's cut and dry.

You need point producers.

You need elite players.

You need to be elite down the middle.

Oh wait, I forgot about last year. Let's re-define that "one and only" way to get it done again.