I was referring to his injury history.
he did not play many full seasons and his last 3 were only about half a season.
another large player that was very injury prone
It's just not a good comparison.
The NHL circa 1992 vs the NHL now is a different game. When Lindros entered the league he had a target on his back, the league was at it's peak of rock em sock em hockey and physicality was, in my opinion, at an all time high. Lindros thrived when the game was at it's physical peak and he did not back down from ANYONE! But in the end, this was his downfall, and concussions ended his career.
Auston Matthews is big, in comparison to current NHL stars, but Lindros was a tank. He looked like an NFL player.
Matthews isn't overly physical, at all, which is OK because the current NHL is geared towards skill. His injury history is more luck than anything and I personally don't worry about it moving forward.
You can't compare a couple shoulder injuries from awkward hits to head injuries resulting from playing hockey like a runaway fright train.
He's the 2nd highest paid player in the league on a deal that is 80% RFA years. If you assume his UFA year is worth $17M (meaning that if he were to become a UFA in 4 years he could ask and receive a contract for $17M AAV, which seems about right given inflation), Matthews is getting paid $10.4M per year for his RFA years. If you generously assume McDavid's UFA years are worth the same as Matthews ($17M) , that would imply McDavid's RFA years are worth only $8M.
Under that assumption, Matthews' RFA years are being paid at a 30% premium over Connor ****ing McDavid
So realistically, he would need to be better than McDavid by a nontrivial margin. I would say Matthews needs to start putting up at least 55-65g 110-130p seasons while playing a solid 2 way game for this contract to not be a massive over-payment. So that would probably mean 2-3+ Hart trophies, 3-4 Richard trophies, 2-3 Art Ross trophies, and 3-4 Lindsay trophies in the 5 years of his deal. He'd have to be the undisputed best player in the world from 2020-2025.
Which is not going to happen.
HF never ceases to surprise me with their opinions on Matthews.
You are surprised to learn that Matthews is getting paid more for his RFA years than McDavid?HF never ceases to surprise me with their opinions on Matthews.
You are surprised to learn that Matthews is getting paid more for his RFA years than McDavid?
I'm surprised how many agree with the expectations. Their contracts were not given out in the same seasons and even a 55 goal 115 point season would be better than anything McDavid has shown so far. I think Matthews is overpaid, but if he stays healthy and gets around 50-100 consistently with very good playoff performances that should do it (literally no one in the NHL gets 50 goals AND 100 points).
The term being low is the issue, because with such a short term being 11.5, a 8-year term contract would be ~13mil
Without ever hitting 70 points in a season, Matthews shouldn't have the ability to ask for such a contract considering that he doesn't have any negotiation high ground. That's how RFA works, and that's why RFA years can be bought for cheaper.
They were given out one season apart. Hardly enough to justify the premium Matthews got. Even if Matthews scored 50-100 he'd still be way overpaid compared to McDavid potting 40g 120p.
They were given out one season apart. Hardly enough to justify the premium Matthews got. Even if Matthews scored 50-100 he'd still be way overpaid compared to McDavid potting 40g 120p.
To be fair, there will have been two cap raises from when Mcdavid signed and Matthews' contract starts.
From 75M to 83M.
12.5/75M = 16.7%
11.64/83M = 14%
The equivalent if they signed at the same time would have been 10.5M for Matty.
McDavid signed his contract July 7, 2017.
Matthews signed his contract February 5th, 2019.
I don't know how long you think one season is... but it's not 17 months. In the meantime, a 500M expansion team entered the league, went to the Cup Final, and significantly increased the cap. A second expansion team was also announced before Matthews signed the contract. Matthews cap hit % is lower than McDavid's.
Not as much as the annual 40 point differential between them. The difference between McDavid (12.5m) and Matthews (11.634m) is an extra 40 point player on his ELCMcDavid signed his contract July 7, 2017.
Matthews signed his contract February 5th, 2019.
I don't know how long you think one season is... but it's not 17 months. In the meantime, a 500M expansion team entered the league, went to the Cup Final, and significantly increased the cap. A second expansion team was also announced before Matthews signed the contract. Matthews cap hit % is lower than McDavid's.[/QUOTE]
Reading comprehension seems to lacking here. The poster posted he signed his contract without having 70 pts in a season. This was factually correct. Not that 70 pts players are worth 11.634M x 5 years out of their entry level deals.
Go check his stats.
Reading comprehension seems to lacking here. The poster posted he signed his contract without having 70 pts in a season. This was factually correct. Not that 70 pts players are worth 11.634M x 5 years out of their entry level deals.
It's becoming clear though that Matthews hot starts to seasons are not a reflection of his actual capability because he always tails off after it. He's started the past 3 seasons at:Well, you've obviously not been watching him play. Seeing him twice a year doesn't do it justice. He hasn't been the same after the injury, at times he looks like he's been avoiding contact possibly due to being afraid to injure his shoulder again.
I think Matthews should step his game up in the playoffs, and surely by next season when he feels comfortable in taking hits and his shoulder not getting injured. There's always that mental barrier that needs to be overcome when returning from an injury.
When Matthews put up 16 points in the first 7 games of the season, he was dominating. Anyway, his contract begins next year, so let's at least wait until then to see if 'he lives up to it'. Right now, on his ELC, he's one of the biggest bargains in the league.
It's becoming clear though that Matthews hot starts to seasons are not a reflection of his actual capability because he always tails off after it. He's started the past 3 seasons at:
10P in 6GP - 16/17
12P in 8 GP - 17/18
16P in 7 GP - 18/19
In all of these seasons his ppg has dropped off significantly after the hot start. So while it's cool that he starts seasons hot when team defensive structure and goaltenders are still rounding into shape, its quite obvious this is not a good representation of his actual ability.
Because if you can't maintain it over an actual reasonable sample size then it means very little. Especially when you consider how poor goaltenders and team defensive structures usually look at the start of the year.How can you argue a hot start is 'not a reflection of his actual capability' when it consistently happens? Just as you're hypothesizing to undermine Matthews abilities. Someone else could make the argument that when rested, Matthews is the best player in the league. Therefore, continued stamina and physical development should help him to sustain the 'hot streak' for longer.
Because if you can't maintain it over an actual reasonable sample size then it means very little. Especially when you consider how poor goaltenders and team defensive structures usually look at the start of the year.
You can't be serious with that stamina comment can you? He's an elite athlete, he's already at an elite level in terms of stamina and physical development. The diminish returns in elite athlete training is a real thing. If anything it shows that he couldn't handle the increased minutes that Leafs fans are always crying for to justify his lack of production. If he's tailing off playing 18 minutes a night, then he sure as hell won't be able to handle 22 minutes.
That's the thing though, I wasn't removing his best stretch. I said his best stretch is not reflective of his ability because he has never been able to maintain it. His season stats are reflective of his ability, which to this point has him in the top 20 for ppg. Unless he's a top 5 point producer next season then his contract is a considerable overpay when you consider that it bought only 1 UFA year.I said my comment is just as outrageous as yours. It doesn't hold any more merit than yours. He put up 10 points in 5 games returning from injury.
Anyway, when the sample size is 60+ games, you can't just take away his best stretch. It's included in the sample, just as his worst is.
That's the thing though, I wasn't removing his best stretch. I said his best stretch is not reflective of his ability because he has never been able to maintain it. His season stats are reflective of his ability, which to this point has him in the top 20 for ppg. Unless he's a top 5 point producer next season then his contract is a considerable overpay when you consider that it bought only 1 UFA year.
Hard to say what he is aside from an ~ppg player at this point. The injury situation goes both ways. Yeah it sucks missing time, but it also skews his point totals more heavily with his hot starts because he plays fewer games, and he goes through less of the accumulated fatigue and wear and tear that players face through a full season grind. There's plenty of examples of players who don't miss a beat when returning from month+ long injuries, so I really don't think it's a valid excuse.We won't know that until next season, though. Besides, Matthews has been unfortunate with injury. He hasn't played over 70 games since his rookie season (and won't again this year). Also, coming back from an injury puts you behind the 8-ball to some degree because you need to get back into the pace of the game, especially in Matthews situation when he's missing more than a month. Hopefully he'll play 80+ games next season and we can judge him when that contract actually takes effect.