Blue Jays Discussion: Alright, no more discontent. Just baseball | ST in Mtl: StL @ Tor | Mar 26/27 7pm ET/4pm PT

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Surprised at the optimism around here. I still think the lineup is not good enough to compete in the AL East this year.

Elaborate on that.

 

[BlueForever75]

Surprised at the optimism around here. I still think the lineup is not good enough to compete in the AL East this year.

You know what is very funny, everyone has handed the Red Sox and Yankees the AL East. But they have just as many concerns and risks as we do.

Yankees have questions all over in their rotation, will Severino be what he was last season, can Tanaka bounce back, Is Sabathia any good at 40. Then you look at their lineup and everyone is questioning whether or not Judge remains who he was last season or is he just another Trumbo!!! Can Stanton stay healthy? Who plays 2B? Who plays 3B? Will Byrd stay healthy?

Then you have the Red Sox, which Porcello are they getting this season? Is Price healthy? Who is there 2B? Can Ramirez be better? Can all 3 OF's continue to improve or will they take a step back like Bradley did last season?

They both have as many questions as the Jays do, only difference is that this season we have covered our weaknesses from last season. So yes there is a sense of optimism with this team. Like other teams in spring training, if everything breaks well for them they are all contenders in week 1.

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

Elaborate on that.

How are they going to replace Goins RBI's???

I think the offense will be around the middle of the pack (assuming JD is healthy and isn't traded). Not a lot of sexy names after Donaldson but there isn't going to be obvious drop offs when injuries happen like last year.

 

[TootooTrain]

Surprised at the optimism around here. I still think the lineup is not good enough to compete in the AL East this year.

We've gone 6 months without baseball.
The excitement I have for this team this season revolves around my love of the game.
During the early days of spring training alot of concentration is on prospects and the next wave of players.
I'll save the hyper sensitivity to the quality of the roster (there could be a bit) when games start.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

How are they going to replace Goins RBI's???

I think the offense will be around the middle of the pack (assuming JD is healthy and isn't traded). Not a lot of sexy names after Donaldson but there isn't going to be obvious drop offs when injuries happen like last year.

In all seriousness though, I think people may have an unrealistic view of the kind of offenses the other AL East team's have, and the other contenders for the wild card have.

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

In all seriousness though, I think people may have an unrealistic view of the kind of offenses the other AL East team's have, and the other contenders for the wild card have.

Well yeah I think there is a lot of variance from year to year in baseball. Teams can go from the obvious #1 offense in the AL to middle of the pack the following year. 2015 Jays and 2016 Red Sox both come to mind.

One thing that gets overlooked about that 2015 Jays team( and something that was lacking last year) is how good they were in areas like base running and defense. If the jays can back to being sound in those areas they won't need to necessarily score a ton of runs to make it as a wild card considering the pitching staff.

 

[Discoverer]

In all seriousness though, I think people may have an unrealistic view of the kind of offenses the other AL East team's have, and the other contenders for the wild card have.

Especially the Wild Card contenders.

The Angels made a bunch of splashy (and very good) moves, but they still have some major, glaring weaknesses (major injury concerns for their entire rotation, a sub-replacement 1B, a starting catcher who projects for a batting line worse than Reese McGuire). The Twins have the potential Sano issues and a rotation with a ceiling of "maybe average-ish" and a floor of "completely terrible". The Mariners, too, have a couple glaring holes in their lineup and a patchwork rotation that mostly looks like James Paxton and one big question mark.

People are optimistic about the Jays because, while there are plenty of questions around the team, they look as good as or better than any of the teams they're expected to be contending with.

 

[GoonieFace]

In all seriousness though, I think people may have an unrealistic view of the kind of offenses the other AL East team's have, and the other contenders for the wild card have.

Especially when Judge and Stanton strike out 400 times. The Jays are in a much better situation to deal with the inevitable injuries. Diaz and Solarte are much more appealing than trotting out Goins and Barney everyday. With good starting pitching, which they have, and a solid bullpen this team will be in the thick of the playoff hunt.

 

[Kurtz]

You know what is very funny, everyone has handed the Red Sox and Yankees the AL East. But they have just as many concerns and risks as we do.

Yankees have questions all over in their rotation, will Severino be what he was last season, can Tanaka bounce back, Is Sabathia any good at 40. Then you look at their lineup and everyone is questioning whether or not Judge remains who he was last season or is he just another Trumbo!!! Can Stanton stay healthy? Who plays 2B? Who plays 3B? Will Byrd stay healthy?

Then you have the Red Sox, which Porcello are they getting this season? Is Price healthy? Who is there 2B? Can Ramirez be better? Can all 3 OF's continue to improve or will they take a step back like Bradley did last season?

They both have as many questions as the Jays do, only difference is that this season we have covered our weaknesses from last season. So yes there is a sense of optimism with this team. Like other teams in spring training, if everything breaks well for them they are all contenders in week 1.

Severino is one of the best pitchers in the AL, I'd trade any of our starters for him without blinking. Tanaka and Gray are fine mid-rotation guys, and Sabathia and Montgomery are perfectly respectable 4/5 options...although I'd wager the Yankees will acquire another solid starter by the deadline. They also have an insane bullpen and likely the best lineup in baseball. Just give them the division and move on.

Jays are not competing for the division this year - we're competing for the Wild Card, and we do have a decent shot of grabbing that.

 

[phillipmike]

The key for our lineup is not to have a black hole. Health is a no brainer but they need production too.

The importance of a wRC+ of 150-160 for Donaldson, 120+ for Smoak and 115+ for Travis is key as they will be the drivers. Need at least 95+ from Martin, Tulo and Pillar. Ideally you are getting better than league average from Morales. The wildcards and difference makers will be Grichuk and Granderson/Pearce. Ideally you get 100-110 wRC+ from them but i think they have the strong potential to do more. If you get those numbers the Jays should be fine. 100-105 from Solarte and 100 Diaz would be suitable as well. If not those exact numbers from those exact players but some variation of that.

 

[zeke]

I'd feel so much better about our offense if we had a second legit big bat behind Donaldson.

Like, say, Encarnacion.

 

[phillipmike]

I'd feel so much better about our offense if we had a second legit big bat behind Donaldson.

Like, say, Encarnacion.

Would be nice indeed. But then you might not have Pearson.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I'd feel so much better about our offense if we had a second legit big bat behind Donaldson.

Like, say, Encarnacion.

Player A: (35yo) .373 wOBA, 132 wRC+, .245 ISO
Player B: (31yo): .371 wOBA, 132 wRC+, .259 ISO

 

[zeke]

Player A (35yo): 127wrc+ career
Player B (31yo): 102wrc+ career

 

[Eyedea]

Player A was a 106wRC+ until he broke out at 29.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Severino is one of the best pitchers in the AL, I'd trade any of our starters for him without blinking. Tanaka and Gray are fine mid-rotation guys, and Sabathia and Montgomery are perfectly respectable 4/5 options...although I'd wager the Yankees will acquire another solid starter by the deadline. They also have an insane bullpen and likely the best lineup in baseball. Just give them the division and move on.

Jays are not competing for the division this year - we're competing for the Wild Card, and we do have a decent shot of grabbing that.

I prefer fangraphs, and using FIP\SIERA\fWAR to measure pitchers, but bWAR and ERA do paint another picture when evaluating actual tangible past performance of pitchers (also doesn't over-value strikeouts, which sometimes I think fangraphs does...especially given the era we live in). Interetingly...

Player A: (23 year old season) 2.98 ERA, 5.3 bWAR
Player B: (23 year old season) 3.00 ERA, 4.9 bWAR
Player C: (26 year old season) 3.09 ERA, 5.8 bWAR

 

[zeke]

Player A was a 106wRC+ until he broke out at 29.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Here's another fun one.

Pair of RF's, switch teams and re-work swing\approach at age 26. Careers through age 26:

Player A: .331 wOBA / 108 wRC+ / .239 ISO / 5.8% BB / 29.9% K
Player B: .331 wOBA / 109 wRC+ / .169 ISO / 6.4% BB / 24.2% K

 

[phillipmike]

MLB.com released and is releasing their top 30 prospects by team. The have the following schedule;

MLB.com 2018 Prospect Watch

The Jays should have had their list out already but looking at the red it means they are a top 10 farm according the MLB.com and will be released on the schedule noted above.

So it is assumed that some of the teams who will be in the top 10 can be determined. Of the teams that should be listed but arent are; the Jays, Yankees, Rays, Braves, Phillies, White Sox, and the Reds. So those 7 teams will be in the top 10... The remaining 3 teams will be from the AL and NL West (AL West is coming out today). But i will assume the Astros, Dodgers and Padres will hold the last 3 spots in the top 10.

Braves, Padres, White Sox, Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Reds, Phillies, Ray and Jays. I assume the Jays are anywhere from 7 to 10. I would guess 9 or 10 but i wonder if Whitley's suspension or Honeywell's injury plays a factor because if it does then i would move the Astros and Rays below the Jays.

Whats your top 10 ranking guess?

Looks like i was wrong the team from the AL West was Oakland not Houston.

Rank	Team
1.	Coming tomorrow
2.	Coming tomorrow
3.	Coming tomorrow
4.	Coming today
5.	Coming today
6.	New York Yankees
7.	Oakland Athletics
8.	Cincinnati Reds
9.	Toronto Blue Jays
10.	Los Angeles Dodgers

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Top 5 will consist of what i presume will be the Braves, Padres, White Sox, Rays and Phillies.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Ya'll are manalyzing

 

[phillipmike]

Braves want Ronald Acuna to wear his hat straight; here's why that's dumb

I dont believe this is coming from AA but you have to think this concept cant be pushed without AA's approval.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Braves want Ronald Acuna to wear his hat straight; here's why that's dumb

I dont believe this is coming from AA but you have to think this concept cant be pushed without AA's approval.

I like players who play the game the wight way. That's what I says.

 

[BlueForever75]

Severino is one of the best pitchers in the AL, I'd trade any of our starters for him without blinking. Tanaka and Gray are fine mid-rotation guys, and Sabathia and Montgomery are perfectly respectable 4/5 options...although I'd wager the Yankees will acquire another solid starter by the deadline. They also have an insane bullpen and likely the best lineup in baseball. Just give them the division and move on.

Jays are not competing for the division this year - we're competing for the Wild Card, and we do have a decent shot of grabbing that.

Tanaka and Sabathia were passable last season, Gray had his up and downs, Severino needs to prove he's not a one season wonder. Montegomery is meh!!!! Rotation has question marks all over!!!! Even experts say so.

Their bullpen is insane I buy that, but there are still questions now about Betances. He didn't even pitch in playoffs last season. They benched him.

As for their starting lineup....3B, 2B and 1B are all question marks. Sorry I don't by the Judge fantasy just yet. He has to prove to be consistent which means putting up back to back seasons of what he did. Stanton is a fantastic pickup. But I believe he will be at a disadvantage coming over to a new league and pitching he hasn't seen much of.

I just do not think the Yankees are that much of a lock. Also don't forget the new manager in there.

 

[GoonieFace]

Severino is one of the best pitchers in the AL, I'd trade any of our starters for him without blinking. Tanaka and Gray are fine mid-rotation guys, and Sabathia and Montgomery are perfectly respectable 4/5 options...although I'd wager the Yankees will acquire another solid starter by the deadline. They also have an insane bullpen and likely the best lineup in baseball. Just give them the division and move on.

Jays are not competing for the division this year - we're competing for the Wild Card, and we do have a decent shot of grabbing that.

Nah, Stroman is better. Im not sure people realize how good he actually is.