All Purpose Analytics and Extended Stats Discussion

[garret9]

New research shows that score-close metrics suck.

http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/11/13/adjusted-possession-measures/

Thanks for the link!

 

[Raikkonen]

It can absoultely be the case in other sports. There are soccer formations based around limiting your opponent's scoring chances and surviving rather than attacking or possession. I've watched plenty of football teams play well for a majority of a game but lose because they had a key turnover or couldn't convert in the red zone.

Yeah, many teams start the match and don't aim for 50% possession (or more). You just need to execute some counter attacks and defend accurately. Also corners and free kicks are really the weapon for some teams.

Teams have different styles for sure. Mostly you have to adjust to your best players' strengths.

 

[Holtbyisms]

I have a question... so in researching career playoff PPG I noticed that Nick Backstrom simply does not appear on the lists. Unless my math is wrong he's at .75 points per game which would place him in the high 20s of active career leaders. Why does he not show up on any of these lists or others I've checked? http://www.hockey-reference.com/leaders/points_per_game_active_p.html http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/reco...all-time-playoff-points-per-game-leaders.html

 

[Ajax1995]

I have a question... so in researching career playoff PPG I noticed that Nick Backstrom simply does not appear on the lists. Unless my math is wrong he's at .75 points per game which would place him in the high 20s of active career leaders. Why does he not show up on any of these lists or others I've checked? http://www.hockey-reference.com/leaders/points_per_game_active_p.html http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/reco...all-time-playoff-points-per-game-leaders.html

Rate Statistic Requirements

The requirements to qualify for the rate statistic league leader boards are as follows:

Points per game: Minimum 0.625 points per scheduled game (season), 500 points (career), 10 points (playoff year), 50 points (playoff career), 125 points (franchise career).

Backstrom only has 43 career playoff points.

 

[Holtbyisms]

Backstrom only has 43 career playoff points.

Gah! Totally missed that. Thanks.

 

[Dream Big]

http://rangersunlimited.com/2014/10/17/defending-marc-staal/#more-11616

Sorry I know this has a Ranger's slant however this article has a table showing Carlson and Alzner ranked 6 & 7 In the last five seasons playing the " toughest minutes in terms of weighted opponents goal scoring rate."

Niskanen and Orpik aren't in the top 10.

Does this mean Carlson and Alzner would play better together against opposition top lines than the current Carlson/Orpik and Niskanen/Alzner?

I'm looking but not sure how to find an answer to my question based on the numbers.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...000&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=toi&sortdir=DESC

 

[ChibiPooky]

http://rangersunlimited.com/2014/10/17/defending-marc-staal/#more-11616

Sorry I know this has a Ranger's slant however this article has a table showing Carlson and Alzner ranked 6 & 7 In the last five seasons playing the " toughest minutes in terms of weighted opponents goal scoring rate."

Niskanen and Orpik aren't in the top 10.

Does this mean Carlson and Alzner would play better together against opposition top lines than the current Carlson/Orpik and Niskanen/Alzner?

I'm looking but not sure how to find an answer to my question based on the numbers.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...000&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=toi&sortdir=DESC

Not necessarily. There's a lot of extrapolation there that significantly decreases my comfort level with saying that, in addition to not really being confident in "weighted opponents goal scoring rate" as I haven't seen that before, nor have I seen research that suggests there's a common, accepted, mathematically sound definition of it.

 

[ChibiPooky]

Adam Oates went on Puck Daddy to talk about the dangers of puck possession.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-p...the-dangers-of-puck-possession-185756667.html

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

NHL Fancystats page is live:

http://www.nhl.com/stats/advancedstats

Have at it

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

NHL Fancystats page is live:

http://www.nhl.com/stats/advancedstats

Have at it

Like how they've renamed Corsi and Fenwick. Much more accessible and intuitive.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Like how they've renamed Corsi and Fenwick. Much more accessible and intuitive.

I just like how it's a lot more intuitive and easier to understand for n00bz. I would go to behind the net on occasion and get so lost.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

I just like how it's a lot more intuitive and easier to understand for n00bz. I would go to behind the net on occasion and get so lost.

Agreed. They do need to add a ES/PP/SH filter though.

Edit: and a Games played filter

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Agreed. They do need to add a ES/PP/SH filter though.

A GP filter would also be helpful to separate out the regulars from the spot players.

edit: ha! I hope these obvious changes are coming. It's like one line of code.

 

[tycoonheart]

NHL Fancystats page is live:

http://www.nhl.com/stats/advancedstats

Have at it

 

[RandyHolt]

They FINALLY updated their stats page?

Edit: No, they didn't

Triple Edit: there are 2 sets of stats

I always got a kick out of "REAL TIME STATS"

At least they added the fancies

 

[g00n]

Bringing this thread out of hibernation for the news above.

Now that "shot attempt" stats are official, and thus part of salary negotiations, expect passing to plummet.

 

[Hivemind]

I hope they add some of the features requested (especially situation and games/minutes filters), because I'm glad that there's an easy-to-use and "official" repository for this information.

 

[ChibiPooky]

Bringing this thread out of hibernation for the news above.

Now that "shot attempt" stats are official, and thus part of salary negotiations, expect passing to plummet.

If the players understand the stats properly (which they don't - see Erik Karlsson's comments from a few days ago), they'll know that any shot attempt taken while they're on the ice is a positive for everyone who's on the ice, not just the shooter.

 

[g00n]

If the players understand the stats properly (which they don't - see Erik Karlsson's comments from a few days ago), they'll know that any shot attempt taken while they're on the ice is a positive for everyone who's on the ice, not just the shooter.

True, but given the option of passing or shooting, I think they're going to shoot more. Especially if there's some doubt that the pass will go through and result in a shot.

 

[ChibiPooky]

True, but given the option of passing or shooting, I think they're going to shoot more. Especially if there's some doubt that the pass will go through and result in a shot.

I don't think the effect will be noticeable. We will see. Maybe over a few seasons we'll see some impact.

 

[g00n]

I don't think the effect will be noticeable. We will see. Maybe over a few seasons we'll see some impact.

It could take a very long time and may not even be something you can pluck out with ease. It might only really manifest in players who are in contract years, which would be a pain to splice out, and could take years to show up in a pattern. And of course there's the effect we talked about in the past, wherein the players just being aware of the stat may make the stat less useful as it may be one of the easier stats for a player to manipulate, especially compared to perceived value.

Eventually players will learn to understand what it means and how to game it.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

If the players understand the stats properly (which they don't - see Erik Karlsson's comments from a few days ago), they'll know that any shot attempt taken while they're on the ice is a positive for everyone who's on the ice, not just the shooter.

Don't think this is true, at all.

The reason the currently recorded shot attempts are a good thing is that their the result of good player tendencies.

Players, by and large, don't have a "shoot=good" attitude. They have a "good shot= good" attitude.

When you're alone on the blue line and take a slapper with a defender in your shooting lane charging at you from 4 feet away, it's certainly not a positive for everyone on the ice. It's liable to result in a breakaway on your net.

Shot attempts are indicative of positive play, not the reason for it.

 

[usiel]

I dig it. I like the new leaders page showing more than the top 5..i'm easy to please.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Semin is their 4th best possession player on a team that is mediocre at that aspect of the game. I am guessing this is just a scapegoat benching from a coach looking for more "grit" and "compete level".

4th best Corsi/Fenwick =/= 4th best possession player. I really wish people would stop using those terms interchangeably.

 

[Hivemind]

4th best Corsi/Fenwick =/= 4th best possession player. I really wish people would stop using those terms interchangeably.

Every study comparing other means of puck possession data to shot attempt metrics has concluded that there is little difference between the two.