Player Discussion Alexis Lafreniere

[NYR Viper]

More than enough, which is refreshing.

Having a few NHL bodies beyond the first 18 skaters is something Gorton sucked at that Drury has dramatically improved on.

He also has seemed to find some guys who can be shuttled back and forth to the AHL which is also nice. Wasting cap space on 13th forwards and 7th d-man seems silly when every team is squeezed

 

[Machinehead]

How good is this team if Lafreniere takes it to another level?

I mean its really what the team needs

If Lafreniere and Kakko became legit players, this team would be...well, they would be as good as people think they are lol

 

[NYR Viper]

This is a good contract in general. Signing a player with as many ES points as Lafreniere had last year as a UFA would easily cost in the $3's. I'm hoping we see him take control a bit more and we start to see more creativity from him. I really think it's a confidence thing

 

[Larrybiv]

This is a good contract in general. Signing a player with as many ES points as Lafreniere had last year as a UFA would easily cost in the $3's. I'm hoping we see him take control a bit more and we start to see more creativity from him. I really think it's a confidence thing

You make a very valid point. I hate to say it, (and many probably would agree) that NOT playing him on the PP, "financially" fit into the Rangers cap, essentially castrating him on and off the ice. Now, mind you regardless if this is a fact or not.........I still don't believe in "handing out" PP time that you don't deserve for the sake of "winning". There was no PROOF that he would excel there, which turns out to be WHY he didn't get that 3+ mil.
in which in all actuality turns out to be a good thing.......but not for him EARN IT!

That all said, in my 50+years of fandom, I have NEVER rooted for any kid to not succeed. He is no different, thought he would be different, but for crying out loud......I am very disappointed thus far. WHY can't we be blessed with an instant McDavid, Crosby, Jagr, Gretzky and the likes? Is it a NY thing? Too much hype and pressure?
Or, is it simply organizational mishandling?

 

[haohmaru]

Everything you wrote is conjecture as well.

We don't know that he wasn't given an offer sheet. All we know is that he didn't sign one. And there are plenty of reasons why players don't receive offer sheets other than the idea that other teams don't value the player. Choosing the one reason that fits your narrative doesn't make you right.

Many teams didn't have the cap space to offer Laf 2.3 mil, never mind the number required to make us not match. That is a fact. Some teams that had the cap space didn't have the draft picks required. That is also a fact. Go look at CapFriendly if you don't believe me.

Beyond that, everything is conjecture.

Do you believe, really, that if there was an offer sheet extended by someone that it wouldn’t have been reported? I don’t. Which makes everything I said, above, a fact. No offer sheet. Cap issues would be the least of it if teams had a resounding belief that Lafreniere would take a Stutzle step. They’d find a way if the belief were strong enough.

I mean, hell, I’m glad no one did and I hope he takes that step and proves everyone wrong.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

a 40-point player gets 2.3M and people think its too much?

rule of thumb has 10 points worth 1M, so his value is actulally closer to 4M a season.

Damn, $100,000 a point.

 

[Profet]

As far as an offer sheet goes, you have to remember that the player still needs to sign it.

I don't see anybody overpaying Lafreniere to make an offer he can't refuse.

If something did come in around the same neighborhood, why would he leave New York City, all of his friends, and (by all accounts) one of the best organizations to work for behind the scenes?

Yes and no... People always seem to forget that an offersheet doesn't have to be about the money.

He could have signed a 4 year offer sheet knowing he'd be a UFA at the end.

 

[TheGortonConspiracy]

2 more years of Lafenstock! @Kocur26

 

[Mandar]

works out to be approximately 581,250 Big Macs/year. Seems about right for him.

 

[bhamill]

Do you believe, really, that if there was an offer sheet extended by someone that it wouldn’t have been reported? I don’t. Which makes everything I said, above, a fact. No offer sheet. Cap issues would be the least of it if teams had a resounding belief that Lafreniere would take a Stutzle step. They’d find a way if the belief were strong enough.

I mean, hell, I’m glad no one did and I hope he takes that step and proves everyone wrong.

Believing or not believing… is still conjecture any way you slice it.

 

[haohmaru]

Believing or not believing… is still conjecture any way you slice it.

It’s not. It would’ve been reported. Period.

 

[NoQuitInNewMexico]

The owners would never collude with each other to keep player salaries down. If they did, they would tell me about it.

 

[GAGLine]

Do you believe, really, that if there was an offer sheet extended by someone that it wouldn’t have been reported? I don’t. Which makes everything I said, above, a fact. No offer sheet. Cap issues would be the least of it if teams had a resounding belief that Lafreniere would take a Stutzle step. They’d find a way if the belief were strong enough.

I mean, hell, I’m glad no one did and I hope he takes that step and proves everyone wrong.

Yes, I believe that is entirely possible. There have been plenty of things that went unreported and then we learned about them later. We have seen trade offers that weren't reported at the time and then were revealed later. Why should it be different for offer sheets? The only thing we can say for sure is that he didn't sign an offer sheet. That is a fact.

But let's operate on the assumption that he didn't receive an offer sheet from any team, since that is the most logical assumption based on how rare offer sheets are. You tried to use that to conclude that other teams didn't value Laf. This is what you wrote:

The facts are he wasn’t offer sheeted

It's absolutely not a fact. It's the most likely scenario, but we have no proof.

despite the fact that the Rangers were very vulnerable to it and the assets going the other direction would’ve been minimal.

These also are not facts. The Rangers weren't as vulnerable as you think, and the assets going the other way would depend on the level of the offer.

The max salary for 2nd round pick compensation is $4,290,125. If a team offered that to Laf and he signed it, we absolutely could have matched and still gotten under the cap:

20 man roster with Goodrow sent down. It would still work with Goodrow instead of Nash, but it would be tighter. Obviously having only 20 players isn't ideal, but we could do it until we figured out a better solution.

If a team offered more than $4,290,125, then we're getting into 1st and 3rd compensation ($4,290,126 to $6,435,186). Which teams have that much cap space and are willing to give up those picks? Those teams will probably be picking high in 2024. Are they giving up a potential lottery pick for Laf?

This speaks to the fact that the teams around the league, including much of this fan base, don’t think he’s taking that next step.

This also is not a fact. You are making an even bigger assumption based on your prior assumptions.

There are many reasons why teams don't offer sheet players, as has been stated ad nauseum. If how much teams valued a player was the only consideration, there would be a hell of a lot more offer sheets.

As far as we know, K'Andre Miller didn't receive an offer sheet. Are you going to suggest that other teams don't value him? Zegras hasn't signed an offer sheet yet. I guess he has no value either.

Since 2006, out of all the hundreds of RFAs, only 10 offer sheets have been signed. Did all of those other players not have value to other teams?

If you want to argue with actual facts, I'm game, but thus far you haven't brought any to the table.

 

[haohmaru]

Yes, I believe that is entirely possible. There have been plenty of things that went unreported and then we learned about them later. We have seen trade offers that weren't reported at the time and then were revealed later. Why should it be different for offer sheets? The only thing we can say for sure is that he didn't sign an offer sheet. That is a fact.

But let's operate on the assumption that he didn't receive an offer sheet from any team, since that is the most logical assumption based on how rare offer sheets are. You tried to use that to conclude that other teams didn't value Laf. This is what you wrote:

The facts are he wasn’t offer sheeted

It's absolutely not a fact. It's the most likely scenario, but we have no proof.

despite the fact that the Rangers were very vulnerable to it and the assets going the other direction would’ve been minimal.

These also are not facts. The Rangers weren't as vulnerable as you think, and the assets going the other way would depend on the level of the offer.

The max salary for 2nd round pick compensation is $4,290,125. If a team offered that to Laf and he signed it, we absolutely could have matched and still gotten under the cap:

View attachment 738481

20 man roster with Goodrow sent down. It would still work with Goodrow instead of Nash, but it would be tighter. Obviously having only 20 players isn't ideal, but we could do it until we figured out a better solution.

If a team offered more than $4,290,125, then we're getting into 1st and 3rd compensation ($4,290,126 to $6,435,186). Which teams have that much cap space and are willing to give up those picks? Those teams will probably be picking high in 2024. Are they giving up a potential lottery pick for Laf?

This speaks to the fact that the teams around the league, including much of this fan base, don’t think he’s taking that next step.

This also is not a fact. You are making an even bigger assumption based on your prior assumptions.

There are many reasons why teams don't offer sheet players, as has been stated ad nauseum. If how much teams valued a player was the only consideration, there would be a hell of a lot more offer sheets.

As far as we know, K'Andre Miller didn't receive an offer sheet. Are you going to suggest that other teams don't value him? Zegras hasn't signed an offer sheet yet. I guess he has no value either.

Since 2006, out of all the hundreds of RFAs, only 10 offer sheets have been signed. Did all of those other players not have value to other teams?

If you want to argue with actual facts, I'm game, but thus far you haven't brought any to the table.

Okay, let's get back to the genesis of this conversation and use a little context in my responses.

It all began him being offer sheeted for "significantly more" money than what he signed with us for based on his PEDIGREE (1OA) and, more importantly, his POTENTIAL.

Offer sheeting on the next tier could've been matched by the Rangers, sure, 3.5M x 4 or whatever offer sheet we're fantasizing about. They would've found a way.

What I said:

"Every team in the league knows he wasn't worth offer sheeting for significantly more.

Including the Rangers."

Do you believe, really, that if Lafreniere were offer sheeted "significantly more" by, let's say, the San Jose Sharks @ 5M x 6 that he wouldn't have signed? Some team where he'd be the first or even 2nd line LW instead of bridging as a 3LW with the Rangers?

What facts am I not bringing? The argument that he might have been offer sheeted and rejected it is laughable.

My argument is actually being SUPPORTED BY YOU above - he wasn't offer sheeted because he wasn't worth offer sheeting and signed for basically what he's worth. That's my entire point - the Rangers were vulnerable if somebody out there was willing to take a flier on this guy because he was a first overall and they think there's untapped potential there. Obviously, NOBODY THINKS THAT.

Would the Rangers have matched that San Jose deal above instead of getting a 1st and a 3rd? Probably not. But it's obviously something they didn't have to worry about and, frankly, not something I thought would happen. And it didn't.

As far as K'andre, Zegras, etc...

I mean, Miller signed a 2 x 3.8+ deal 10 days into free agency. Were there offer sheets? Probably not. Were he offer sheeted it probably would've been north of 6.5M and that's serious assets coming the other way. Same for Zegras. Of course they have value, but that's a lot of assets to sign someone. Zegras signed for 5.3M+ so he might've even gotten into the next tier.

And, yes, you are correct that offer sheets are rare and even rarer still in these 3 years of a stagnant cap. That's not something I've ever disputed.

My facts are fine. He wasn't offer sheeted. He isn't/wasn't worth offer sheeting. And a ton of people think he's a disappointment so far. Which of those aren't true?

 

[NYR Viper]

If I was Lafreniere and I believed in myself, I would be less likely to take a 4-6 year deal right now, even if offered at $4-5m per season for the simple reason that I think I may be worth more in the very near future.

 

[haohmaru]

"Here are the second contracts of the three No. 1 picks before Lafrenière:

Jack Hughes, eight years, $8 million average annual value;
Rasmus Dahlin, three years, $6 million AAV and
Nico Hischier, seven years, $7.25 million AAV."

 

[TominNC]

I read all this stuff on here about Laf then when I see an article about his signing and it’s starts Alexis Lafreniere, 21, I have to wonder, what’s wrong with you guys?

 

[bhamill]

It’s not. It would’ve been reported. Period.

Umm. THAT is also conjecture.…
Conjecture is when you state what you BELIEVE rather than what you can prove. So unless you can PROVE what you believe, then yes, by definition, it’s conjecture. Even the most educated guess is in fact a guess. Or as some people put it: conjecture.

 

[GAGLine]

Do you believe, really, that if Lafreniere were offer sheeted "significantly more" by, let's say, the San Jose Sharks @ 5M x 6 that he wouldn't have signed? Some team where he'd be the first or even 2nd line LW instead of bridging as a 3LW with the Rangers?

What facts am I not bringing? The argument that he might have been offer sheeted and rejected it is laughable.

My argument is actually being SUPPORTED BY YOU above - he wasn't offer sheeted because he wasn't worth offer sheeting and signed for basically what he's worth. That's my entire point - the Rangers were vulnerable if somebody out there was willing to take a flier on this guy because he was a first overall and they think there's untapped potential there. Obviously, NOBODY THINKS THAT.

This is the last time I'm going to post on this because I'm not going to continue to argue the same points.

The bolded is the key thing you aren't understanding. You are drawing an unsupported conclusion. You are assuming that the only possible reason why Laf didn't receive an offer sheet is because other teams didn't value him at the amount that would be required for us to not match.

Most teams were incapable of offer sheeting him because they didn't have the cap space and/or didn't have the necessary draft picks. How does them not giving him an offer sheet prove that they don't value him that highly? That's like claiming someone doesn't like driving because they don't own a car.

The lack of cap space and draft picks are only 2 reasons why a team might not offer sheet a player. Chicago had the cap space and the picks, but did they want to pay Laf $6,435,186 and give up would could be a top 5 pick next year? Or maybe they feared that the Rangers would retaliate and go after Bedard 3 years from now. Or maybe they just didn't want to risk damaging the relationship between the teams. Maybe it was a combination of all these things.

You don't know. Neither of us knows. You can't just pick the one reason that supports your narrative and claim it as fact.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

If Lafreniere and Kakko became legit players, this team would be...well, they would be as good as people think they are lol

Hughes and Stutzle were trash players but kept getting thrown out there until they became good.

As long as Kakko and Laf are stuck behind the Wheelers and Trocheks of the world they’ll never reach their potential. I’m hoping Laviolette and his staff are smarter than the bozos we’ve had before but, im not holding my breath. Laviolette strikes me as another very Rongo esque hire, very conservative . We’ll see.

 

[haohmaru]

This is the last time I'm going to post on this because I'm not going to continue to argue the same points.

The bolded is the key thing you aren't understanding. You are drawing an unsupported conclusion. You are assuming that the only possible reason why Laf didn't receive an offer sheet is because other teams didn't value him at the amount that would be required for us to not match.

Most teams were incapable of offer sheeting him because they didn't have the cap space and/or didn't have the necessary draft picks. How does them not giving him an offer sheet prove that they don't value him that highly? That's like claiming someone doesn't like driving because they don't own a car.

The lack of cap space and draft picks are only 2 reasons why a team might not offer sheet a player. Chicago had the cap space and the picks, but did they want to pay Laf $6,435,186 and give up would could be a top 5 pick next year? Or maybe they feared that the Rangers would retaliate and go after Bedard 3 years from now. Or maybe they just didn't want to risk damaging the relationship between the teams. Maybe it was a combination of all these things.

You don't know. Neither of us knows. You can't just pick the one reason that supports your narrative and claim it as fact.

What you are not understanding is that all of this salary cap nonsense doesn't change the fact that he wasn't offer sheeted which, by this fact alone, means that no one thought he was worth offer sheeting. I don't know how you can even argue this point.

All of the reasons you're giving above are PART OF THE REASON HE WASN'T WORTH OFFER SHEETING. Holy crap. It's not solely about him not realizing his potential it's also about the cost, the cap, the contract, and everything else. I'm not ignorant about these things for crying out loud.

You're taking this like I'm saying he's a worthless piece of shit player that's not worth a bag of pucks. I'm saying that no one thought it was worth the risk, whatever that entails, to offer sheet him and that's exactly what happened and why he's still a NY Ranger.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Ideally Lafreniere takes the next step and becomes something in the range of the player he was expected to be but even if he doesn't and he just stays generally the same player, he will outperform his cap hit on this contract.

I really hope this is the year he breaks out but who knows. We'll see I guess.



For all the shit Drury gets he's done two things that I've liked:

1. Gotten legitimate NHL depth that goes deeper than just the 18 skaters who are projected to be on the team. It always felt like Gorton was building a team in an NHL video game with injuries turned off because he never had any notable depth after the first 18 skaters.

2. Signed players to deals on which they will undoubtedly outperform their caphit. Just this offseason he's signed Wheeler, Gustaffson, Bonino, Miller and Lafreniere to cap hits they will bring more value than their hit against the cap. These are the types of things a GM trying to contend in a hard cap league needs to do and Drury did just about as good of a job with this this offseason as he could considering all of the context.

 

[Dfence033]

Wow some people just can't be pleased. If Laf was already generational, where would the Rangers be getting $8-9M+ per season to sign him? It would be "Rongos dumb, can't ever keep the good kids chasing free agents."

Signs for below average, "Rongos dumb, not worth anything to anyone, fat bust who can't play NHL hockey. Dumb Rongos skills coach and terrible development program."

Yes, he's not Jack Hughes. Get over it already.

 

[AirGut]

maybe if he just grows his hair out he'll actually be what we want him to be

 

[DialUp]

3rd line plug gets 3rd line plug money. If he manages to get 50 points next year I would say this is one of the better glow-ups since Marcel Hossa got almost 20 that one year.

Still laughing at that dude who bought my French Young Gun Laf rookie card during covid for like 450 on Ebay.

I think the odds for Laf to become a star is about a low as the Rangers getting the 1st pick his draft year. Possible, improbable.