Prospect Info: Alex Vlasic, Defence, USNTDP, 43rd overall (2019)

[Dead Meat]

Didn’t need to put the hamstring bit in there. Weird quote from the GM. I know where he’s coming from but that didn’t need to be included.

Maybe he's talking about a team like the Blues that gave out long term contracts with ntc's...some for players that didn't really earn it.

 

[hockeydoug]

This is a head scratcher, the part about "to be sure".

Nobody knows how 36 yr old Foligno was going to hold up with all the extra minutes, heavy game, and injury history but they dump a pile of Danny-bucks on him for intangibles and fan pleasing PR. I like him, who doesn't? That said, he's still a 4th liner on a good team, shouldn't have the minutes he has this year, and has been apart of more teams that have disappointed or underachieved than excelled.

Vlasic improved for 4 straight years, most of that time with very limited guidance from the big club. He was playing an NHL game as soon as he signed and has a few years of improvement on top of steady, relatively consistent play for a young player. He plays well with Jones who isn't going anywhere. He has some cost control built into a long extension keeping his price down. He just hasn't had the big up and downs at school or with the organization that so many prospects have their first several years after being drafted.

Vlasic is as much a sure thing as anybody with some injury absences. He's a guy to spend on long term before anybody else in my opinion. I'm not too worried about the carryover impact on the roster of what he's getting paid either. Defense is cheaper than goals so pay the kid big for 5+years and avoid the movement clause if a better top 4 with a similar game emerges.

Added bonus, it may keep KD from burning more money on more nonsense.

 

[JaegerDice]

This is a head scratcher, the part about "to be sure".

Nobody knows how 36 yr old Foligno was going to hold up with all the extra minutes, heavy game, and injury history but they dump a pile of Danny-bucks on him for intangibles and fan pleasing PR. I like him, who doesn't? That said, he's still a 4th liner on a good team, shouldn't have the minutes he has this year, and has been apart of more teams that have disappointed or underachieved than excelled.

Vlasic improved for 4 straight years, most of that time with very limited guidance from the big club. He was playing an NHL game as soon as he signed and has a few years of improvement on top of steady, relatively consistent play for a young player. He plays well with Jones who isn't going anywhere. He has some cost control built into a long extension keeping his price down. He just hasn't had the big up and downs at school or with the organization that so many prospects have their first several years after being drafted.

Vlasic is as much a sure thing as anybody with some injury absences. He's a guy to spend on long term before anybody else in my opinion. I'm not too worried about the carryover impact on the roster of what he's getting paid either. Defense is cheaper than goals so pay the kid big for 5+years and avoid the movement clause if a better top 4 with a similar game emerges.

Added bonus, it may keep KD from burning more money on more nonsense.

Nobody on this team is a sure thing outside of Bedard.

With all due respect to Vlasic, his claim to fame is currently ‘most surprisingly good dman on one of the worst teams in the league’. That was McCabe’s selling point at the TDL last season too.

Foligno is here for intangible stuff. Im happy to argue how much that should matter, but the fact is Foligno’s success criteria was 80% off ice.

Vlasic will get re-signed. But he’s not going to get more than he deserves on the basis of a low bar.

 

[TheFridge]

This is a head scratcher, the part about "to be sure".

Nobody knows how 36 yr old Foligno was going to hold up with all the extra minutes, heavy game, and injury history but they dump a pile of Danny-bucks on him for intangibles and fan pleasing PR. I like him, who doesn't? That said, he's still a 4th liner on a good team, shouldn't have the minutes he has this year, and has been apart of more teams that have disappointed or underachieved than excelled.

Vlasic improved for 4 straight years, most of that time with very limited guidance from the big club. He was playing an NHL game as soon as he signed and has a few years of improvement on top of steady, relatively consistent play for a young player. He plays well with Jones who isn't going anywhere. He has some cost control built into a long extension keeping his price down. He just hasn't had the big up and downs at school or with the organization that so many prospects have their first several years after being drafted.

Vlasic is as much a sure thing as anybody with some injury absences. He's a guy to spend on long term before anybody else in my opinion. I'm not too worried about the carryover impact on the roster of what he's getting paid either. Defense is cheaper than goals so pay the kid big for 5+years and avoid the movement clause if a better top 4 with a similar game emerges.

Added bonus, it may keep KD from burning more money on more nonsense.

Wut? How would you possibly know that?

Imagine if we signed Kubalik to an 8-year deal after his 30-goal rookie season. That would have been fun.

 

[hockeydoug]

Nobody on this team is a sure thing outside of Bedard.

With all due respect to Vlasic, his claim to fame is currently ‘most surprisingly good dman on one of the worst teams in the league’. That was McCabe’s selling point at the TDL last season too.

Foligno is here for intangible stuff. Im happy to argue how much that should matter, but the fact is Foligno’s success criteria was 80% off ice.

Vlasic will get re-signed. But he’s not going to get more than he deserves on the basis of a low bar.

Vlasic will be around for the better part of a decade as a top 5 dman at least. He's a professional.

I don't want him getting more than a cost controlled defensive dman should get. He doesn't score so there's limited risk with the AAV. I just think a short bridge needlessly complicates things by stacking up extensions and letting KD have too much money to burn for a couple of years.

I agree with Foligno's success off of the ice, that's kind of why I wasn't a fan of PR signing for a guy who could disappear for a long time after a fun filled losing of most 39 games.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Give Vlasic 4, maybe 5 years. Reserve the 8 year deals for the guys you think will make huge improvements and become bargains and/or you worry about them getting too good and pricing themselves out of a good cap structure. Another point being players that can be magnets for future UFAs to come play here because they know so and so is here on a long-term basis. That’s probably not Vlasic as he likely won’t ever be QB of a powerplay and putting up big point totals. Shorter deal protects the downside risk and you can likely re-sign him to a mutually favorable deal again as he gets a year out of a UFA.

 

[HawksDub89]

Who cares about pace? Reichel was on pace for 53 points last year and 20+ goals. It's a hard league to produce in. Vlasic hasn't produced at any league he's ever played in. But let's hope you're right.

Because what he’s on pace for is relevant. If he ends up with 20ish points this season it’s not unreasonable to suggest he could hit 30 with a better roster in his prime.

This isn’t hard, don’t need to galaxy brain this stuff.

 

[HawksDub89]

Give Vlasic 4, maybe 5 years. Reserve the 8 year deals for the guys you think will make huge improvements and become bargains and/or you worry about them getting too good and pricing themselves out of a good cap structure. Another point being players that can be magnets for future UFAs to come play here because they know so and so is here on a long-term basis. That’s probably not Vlasic as he likely won’t ever be QB of a powerplay and putting up big point totals. Shorter deal protects the downside risk and you can likely re-sign him to a mutually favorable deal again as he gets a year out of a UFA.

Well said. And I agree 4/5 years seems reasonable.

 

[Crow]

I would hold off on the outright statement of a complete fail in Ottawa.
They've had some injury problems but still have a very good young core.
Chabot's contract doesn't look good at the moment and Norris' trajectory is certainly hampered by his shoulder but Tkachuk, Stutzle and Sanderson are the goods.
They'll get a high pick this year and with new ownership and management one can only hope they can right the ship and become a playoff team soon.

Aren’t they forfeiting that pick?

 

[bwanajamba]

Aren’t they forfeiting that pick?

They get to choose one of the next three drafts to forfeit it. So almost definitely not this year

 

[Pertti]

Vlasic been great this season but before you throw bank to him, remember he wasn't very good last season. He wasn't in NHL and few games he was he didn't deserve to be.

 

[TheFridge]

Because what he’s on pace for is relevant. If he ends up with 20ish points this season it’s not unreasonable to suggest he could hit 30 with a better roster in his prime.

This isn’t hard, don’t need to galaxy brain this stuff.

It's 40 games my guy.

 

[hockeydoug]

Wut? How would you possibly know that?

Imagine if we signed Kubalik to an 8-year deal after his 30-goal rookie season. That would have been fun.

That's not a comp. Kubalik wasn't even on the continent a year. I wasn't talking 8 years and never would compare him to a forward anyway. His cap hit for 5 or even 6 as a defensive defenseman with some cost controlled time will be pretty mild. They still have several years before they have another LD come up and compete for the role with him.

As far as assuming Vlasic progressed without alot of guidance from the big club, that's based on Vlasic's comments and what I've seen and heard, often 2nd hand admittedly, with drafted NCAA kids the last 2 decades. NHL teams don't spend a ton of time developing the players when they're at school outside of a camp, and a bunch of drive-bys. I assume there are some exceptions. Did the NHL franchises drastically change how the handle college kids before they're signed (serious question)?

My understanding is they get much less direction and there is quite a bit of self guided training than when they're under contract having known a few drafted players.

Anyway, doesn't matter. KD isn't likely to sign a mid range extension but 5 would be ideal for me, 6 would be fine to match Jones.

 

[cassac]

That's not a comp. Kubalik wasn't even on the continent a year. I wasn't talking 8 years and never would compare him to a forward anyway. His cap hit for 5 or even 6 as a defensive defenseman with some cost controlled time will be pretty mild. They still have several years before they have another LD come up and compete for the role with him.

As far as assuming Vlasic progressed without alot of guidance from the big club, that's based on Vlasic's comments and what I've seen and heard, often 2nd hand admittedly, with drafted NCAA kids the last 2 decades. NHL teams don't spend a ton of time developing the players when they're at school outside of a camp, and a bunch of drive-bys. I assume there are some exceptions. Did the NHL franchises drastically change how the handle college kids before they're signed (serious question)?

My understanding is they get much less direction and there is quite a bit of self guided training than when they're under contract having known a few drafted players.

Anyway, doesn't matter. KD isn't likely to sign a mid range extension but 5 would be ideal for me, 6 would be fine to match Jones.

Last year on CHGO Blackhawks, they interviewed the kid that the Blackhawks got from Colorado, think he was playing at Michigan and I can't remeber his name. Anyway he said the Blackhawks were checking in with him weekly and providing info for him from the staff, i.e. skating coach, etc. He said it was completely different than his expierence with Colorado.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Last year on CHGO Blackhawks, they interviewed the kid that the Blackhawks got from Colorado, think he was playing at Michigan and I can't remeber his name. Anyway he said the Blackhawks were checking in with him weekly and providing info for him from the staff, i.e. skating coach, etc. He said it was completely different than his expierence with Colorado.

Rolston

 

[kmwtrucks]

I would pay him what would be fair for #4 LD? if he wants #2 LD money then it does not make sense. But I think I have seen enough that leads me to believe he can be a #4. he is already our best passer and has the best stick (a lot because of his length) his skating is already solid for a #4 if he can add 20 lbs of muscle and learn to use his length to blast shots. he then becomes a #2 or 3.

 

[St Anley]

He has a chance to be a #1 D. He has similarities to a young Larry Robinson, who was not great right out of the box but then...... Both were 2nd round picks.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

I would pay him what would be fair for #4 LD? if he wants #2 LD money then it does not make sense. But I think I have seen enough that leads me to believe he can be a #4. he is already our best passer and has the best stick (a lot because of his length) his skating is already solid for a #4 if he can add 20 lbs of muscle and learn to use his length to blast shots. he then becomes a #2 or 3.

His skating is much more than solid.

 

[ChiHawks10]

I would pay him what would be fair for #4 LD? if he wants #2 LD money then it does not make sense. But I think I have seen enough that leads me to believe he can be a #4. he is already our best passer and has the best stick (a lot because of his length) his skating is already solid for a #4 if he can add 20 lbs of muscle and learn to use his length to blast shots. he then becomes a #2 or 3.

I'd argue he's already easily a #3 or #4 on most NHL teams, as is... And what? 20lbs of muscle? He's listed at 6'6 and 220lbs. Why would you want him to be 240? He's pretty much what he'll be as far as his size goes. He might add another 5 or 6lbs but I doubt he ever cracks 230.

 

[clydesdale line]

I would pay him what would be fair for #4 LD? if he wants #2 LD money then it does not make sense. But I think I have seen enough that leads me to believe he can be a #4. he is already our best passer and has the best stick (a lot because of his length) his skating is already solid for a #4 if he can add 20 lbs of muscle and learn to use his length to blast shots. he then becomes a #2 or 3.

Best passer as in overall on the team or just defenseman? Cuz in either case, there's a couple of forwards I'd take, and as far as defenseman I still say it's definitely Korchinski.

 

[HawksDub89]

It's 40 games my guy.

This is your takeaway? Lol

Your lack of critical thinking skills is depressing.

God bless you.

 

[TLEH]

When have you seen defenseman 6'6" get shorthanded breakaways and pull away from forwards with ease. He is an excellent skater.

 

[TheFridge]

This is your takeaway? Lol

Your lack of critical thinking skills is depressing.

God bless you.

Oh no, the guy extrapolating future production off 40 games, while ignoring relevant context thinks my “lack” of critical thinking skills is depressing. How will I ever recover?

 

[WarriorofTime]

Defensemen get a lot of their points on the powerplay or at even strength via a large amount of first pass relatively cheapo 2nd assists. If Vlasic is a future PP1 QB, something has probably gone horribly wrong (or he surpassed everyone's wildest expectations), so I don't care too much about his point totals, but hopefully they would rise as the Hawks offense improves and he's just out there playing a lot.

 

[statswatcher]

Defensemen get a lot of their points on the powerplay or at even strength via a large amount of first pass relatively cheapo 2nd assists. If Vlasic is a future PP1 QB, something has probably gone horribly wrong (or he surpassed everyone's wildest expectations), so I don't care too much about his point totals, but hopefully they would rise as the Hawks offense improves and he's just out there playing a lot.

a defenseman who can get the puck up the ice in transition, setting up a goal within one extra pass, is valuable 5v5.