Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXIV -- The Doggiest Days (Woof!) 2017

[twabby]

Two rookies with 0 GP on the 3rd pairing?

That'll go well.

What's the difference between that and the current situation?

Just move Schmidt or Chorney to the third pairing if you really want to. I was just illustrating that keeping Schmidt at a more than reasonable price was an option.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Here's the team I made with CapFriendly showing Schmidt able to be signed for up to $4.38M assuming an Orpik buyout, Grubauer being selected, and Johansson traded for futures:

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/405238

And somehow you think thats better? 2019 you have 8 players that need contracts (one of which being Carlson), with only 14m to spend. So another summer of contract armageddon.

You woefully overvalue Schmidt.

They want to have one **** summer, not a series of **** summers. It will be far easier to erase the Orpik contract w one year left on the deal, than it is to buy it out and make it 4 years of wasted space. Why you dont see that, I cant say.

Carlson will be making 7+m a year. We dont need 2.5m of dead Orpik space next season. Thats just stupid. They will deal Orpik next summer (or before, depending how the season breaks), and use his 5.5m (and Schmidt 2.5m) to resign Carlson to 7m.

 

[Ridley Simon]

It would have allowed them to keep Schmidt for the first two years which is hardly hamstringing them, and a $1.5M cap hit in 2019-20 and 2020-21 is something that can be navigated around and something you should gladly accept if that is the price to keep Schmidt.

Again, you woefully overvalue Schmidt.

 

[strungout]

What's the difference between that and the current situation?

Just move Schmidt or Chorney to the third pairing if you really want to. I was just illustrating that keeping Schmidt at a more than reasonable price was an option.

Well with the current situation...we have Orpik there to settle in one of Bowey or Lewington...while Carlson can work with Doojs or Williams (or Chorney if you dont trust the kids there yet)

You subtract Orpik from that...you have young guy in Schmidt being asked to do a hell of a lot more than he ever has in the past.

Could he pull it off and mentor one of the younger kids? Maybe?

Then you run into the problem of resigning Carlson with Schmidt making that much coin.

I get liking Schmidt and it sucks losing him....but come on.

 

[trick9]

Here's the team I made with CapFriendly showing Schmidt able to be signed for up to $4.38M assuming an Orpik buyout, Grubauer being selected, and Johansson traded for futures:

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/405238

All you are pointing out really is that they made the wrong decision in not buying out Orpik. I don't think many people here will disagree with that.

However, a roster with Daley (for example) and Grubauer rather than Schmidt and Copley is easily better than that. Not to mention they would still get to keep the assets it would have required to make Vegas select Grubauer rather than Schmidt.

Not to mention that Schmidt is nowhere near worth that salary. Likely never will be.

 

[Ridley Simon]

It was discussed and signed. 2 years ago.

they still had 2 years of RFA left. You know what I meant. perhaps they were looking at a 6m deal for 3years.

That would have meant 8+m prob at the end of it. or maybe 9+m

 

[Langway]

Total house cleaning? Really? We're to that point after this?

I was there before so nothing has happened to change that. They need a comprehensive fresh approach or else they're likely just wasting the last few years of a core that may have run its course anyway. How do you get more out of less when a stacked lineup couldn't get it done? Where are the lessons learned that help insure better performance in the future? When the entire organization doesn't have clear answers or closure to move on they're likely to just repeat the same mistakes. Mentally...they just don't have it. They need a more self-aware, feedback-driven approach and the baggage that both MacLellan and Trotz carry is likely to negatively impact decision-making going forward. I'm skeptical how well both will be able to manage expectations and be sufficiently patient with a weaker roster. Mistakes are going to happen but they can't let it stunt development and erode confidence. It's not just giving opportunity to manufacture Shearys but also having the developmental mindset and core consistency to make that more seamless. The Caps core and their style of play don't really make those tasks easier. Hell, 8/19 don't even make it easy on each other.

Relying on kids to spark unmotivated core players is ass-backwards and there's little evidence the youth has that kind of leadership or overall impact ability. It's also one of the subtle losses of 88 in that he had proven energizing type ability from the back-end (a rarity, not to mention his enthusiasm). It's over-selling rookies unfairly to expect that from them and puts too much of a burden on them to compensate for inconsistency and established suspect habits. And so you get a bit of slowed development across the board that ultimately is likely to result in underachieving. Overall they just seem like an organization that lets stars walk all over them so it's hard to respect. The proof is in how far that's gotten them. There has to be something bigger than self-centeredness and yet it's mostly just that and hype instead of learning and maturing. It's a big part of why they lack the intangibles and mental toughness needed to perform when the pressure is on.

In terms of creating holes where there weren't any, of course Washington has stepped back far more than any other team. They had the least holes and by virtue of UFA losses were going to have new ones created. But they've also added at least one, if not two, along the way via their decisions in the hope that cheap performers will bail them out. Other teams have had poor off-seasons but expectations also kind of have to be taken into consideration. I don't really expect a Florida or Colorado to have great off-seasons but even within that they've disappointed. Ultimately I didn't expect much and they've delivered less. Best-case their development is on point, they get a bit fortunate and certain veterans grow up but it's going to take a lot going right in the short-term for all that to happen. I mostly just don't come to expect improvement at the level where it needs to be if the Cup is the real goal.

 

[trick9]

they still had 2 years of RFA left. You know what I meant. perhaps they were looking at a 6m deal for 3years.

That would have meant 8+m prob at the end of it. or maybe 9+m

I do but it doesn't really work like that with most players.

Bridge deal is a ''prove it'' -kind of deal. Kuznetsov did prove himself in those 2 years already. Hell he's 18th in NHL scoring during that span and 7th in ES scoring, and got paid 3m per season. That's one of the best bargain deals you could find around the league in that time span. Do you really think the relationship between the player and the team is going to stay good if you ask them to take another bridge deal after that? All that tells the player is that you lied your ass off in the first place and are now asking to trust you again. It might work with a player that loves a certain location and refuses to play elsewhere, or a guy that simply doesn't want a long-term contract. 99% of the players don't belong in that group though because they want long-term security.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Kuzy, getting paid and fan accolades off of one good season that he may never repeat. Good times in Capsland.

Dude has a lot to prove.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I do but it doesn't really work like that with most players.

Bridge deal is a ''prove it'' -kind of deal. Kuznetsov did prove himself in those 2 years already. Hell he's 18th in NHL scoring during that span and 7th in ES scoring, and got paid 3m per season. That's one of the best bargain deals you could find around the league in that time span. Do you really think the relationship between the player and the team is going to stay good if you ask them to take another bridge deal after that? All that tells the player is that you lied your ass off in the first place and are now asking to trust you again. It might work with a player that loves a certain location and refuses to play elsewhere, or a guy that simply doesn't want a long-term contract. 99% of the players don't belong in that group though because they want long-term security.

There's no accompanying "Circle of trust" ceremony with a bridge deal. It's simply business. Go out and prove your worth, not just show us one awesome partial season.

I imagine Kuzy's agent was asking $8mil + per initially and I bet the Caps would have seriously considered a shorter deal if there was no Khl threat.

 

[trick9]

Kuzy, getting paid and fan accolades off of one good season that he may never repeat. Good times in Capsland.

Dude has a lot to prove.

Acting as he was brutal last season. He was 18th in points among centers. Tied for 12th in ES points among centers.

Combine the last 2 years. List of players that produce more on the even-strength goes: Crosby, Scheifele, McDavid. Period. 7 points ahead of John Tavares. 13 ahead of Nicklas Backstrom. 21 ahead of Jonathan Toews. 31 ahead of Patrice Bergeron. 40 ahead of Claude Giroux.

 

[trick9]

There's no accompanying "Circle of trust" ceremony with a bridge deal. It's simply business. Go out and prove your worth, not just show us one awesome partial season.

I imagine Kuzy's agent was asking $8mil + per initially and I bet the Caps would have seriously considered a shorter deal if there was no Khl threat.

Read the post above or go out where he ranks among NHL centers in the last 2 years combined. That's 2 years. Not ''one awesome partial season''.

Of course there is. You make it seem like it's business for only one side. It's not just the team that is negotiating that bridge contract, it's the agent aswell. If they have no incentive to sign it, why don't they just say that pay me more or trade me to a team willing to do so? Not to mention with Russian players and the KHL threat. If it's just business for them Kuznetsov would have told them to take a walk with that bridge deal at that money and put in a trade request with a threat of leaving for KHL.

 

[twabby]

Again, you woefully overvalue Schmidt.

I'm not saying pay him $4.38M I'm saying that's about how much they could afford to pay him while staying under the cap.

When it comes to evaluating defensemen let's just say that HFCaps isn't exactly spot on. I was a vocal minority last offseason when it came to evaluating certain defensemen (namely Orlov and Alzner) and I'd say I pegged their seasons better than most. So forgive me if I trust my own instincts and evaluation of defensemen more than certain people here.

I don't think Schmidt has the tools in the offensive zone or on the PP to ever be a true #1 but every statistical measure shows him being great in transition and the defensive zone. IMO he's going to be a legit #2 or #3 for most of his career.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I do but it doesn't really work like that with most players.

Bridge deal is a ''prove it'' -kind of deal. Kuznetsov did prove himself in those 2 years already. Hell he's 18th in NHL scoring during that span and 7th in ES scoring, and got paid 3m per season. That's one of the best bargain deals you could find around the league in that time span. Do you really think the relationship between the player and the team is going to stay good if you ask them to take another bridge deal after that? All that tells the player is that you lied your ass off in the first place and are now asking to trust you again. It might work with a player that loves a certain location and refuses to play elsewhere, or a guy that simply doesn't want a long-term contract. 99% of the players don't belong in that group though because they want long-term security.

I guess we view bridge deals differently. To me, its a bridge to the UFA years. Nothing more, nothing less. It allows for a lower AAV because its shorter. Akin to MaJo's 3yr deal for 4.875m/yr. I think in order for the team to have kept someone like Schmidt (while not doing the cap killing dead space move of a buy out...which i would avoid at all costs), then either Orlov or Kuznetsov would have needed to take a 2-3yr deal at a lower cap hit. That would have allowed them to sign another player in the 2.5-3m range.

But it didnt happen.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I'm not saying pay him $4.38M I'm saying that's about how much they could afford to pay him while staying under the cap.

When it comes to evaluating defensemen let's just say that HFCaps isn't exactly spot on. I was a vocal minority last offseason when it came to evaluating certain defensemen (namely Orlov and Alzner) and I'd say I pegged their seasons better than most. So forgive me if I trust my own instincts and evaluation of defensemen more than certain people here.

I don't think Schmidt has the tools in the offensive zone or on the PP to ever be a true #1 but every statistical measure shows him being great in transition and the defensive zone. IMO he's going to be a legit #2 or #3 for most of his career.

You can trust whatever you want to trust. I would never use the buy out for this team, at this time. It's creating a lower cap ceiling than your competition. That's moronic to do in the last few Ovy/Backs years.

Schmidt or Orpik for 2017 season.....one v the other isnt going to mean "plan the parade". As I have stated a few times now, I think the 2017-18 season is one of transition, where they are going to try and position themselves for 18-19 and beyond. Having Schmidt + 2.5 in wasted space for 18-19 (or 1.5m for 19-20 & 20-21) is plain dumb.

It's obvious that they want Orpik for *this season* to help mentor 1-2 young D-men. Maybe 2-3, depending on injuries etc. They see that as a necessary piece. You dismiss what Orpik may have done for your favourite 2 players that you tout you know so much about (Orlov and Schmidt). I assume you totally disregard his value to their growth. The team doesn't disregard it.(and I'm certain I will trust their knowledge of this over yours, twabmind...no disrespect). So they want him around for Bowey, Siegenthaler, Lewington, Djoos, etc. At least for this year.

So they have Orpik. They want him for 2017. You dont agree because all you look at is on-ice metrics. Ok then.

I think Trotz is gone next summer (or sooner). This will be Rierdon's club shortly. Then you and others can shred him too for knowing less than you about coaching and line construction. Orpik will be gone too, IMO, but he will have earned his $$$ by propping up the kids for 2018, and they will use his $$$ to resign Carlson.

I see the future top 4 as being
Orlov/Niskanen
Carlson/Bowey

Prob starting 2018. Orpik will play a part in that.

 

[strungout]

I see the future top 4 as being
Orlov/Niskanen
Carlson/Bowey

Then add Johansen, Williams, Siegenthaler, Hobbs, Lewington into the mix for the remaining 2 spots.

Hobbs is a sleeper.

 

[trick9]

I guess we view bridge deals differently. To me, its a bridge to the UFA years. Nothing more, nothing less. It allows for a lower AAV because its shorter. Akin to MaJo's 3yr deal for 4.875m/yr. I think in order for the team to have kept someone like Schmidt (while not doing the cap killing dead space move of a buy out...which i would avoid at all costs), then either Orlov or Kuznetsov would have needed to take a 2-3yr deal at a lower cap hit. That would have allowed them to sign another player in the 2.5-3m range.

But it didnt happen.

Why does the player do that again, exactly?

Especially one who himself along with his agent knew he was not going to have any problem getting that deal from elsewhere. They are not going to just roll over and take less money and less security when they are holding all the cards.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Then add Johansen, Williams, Siegenthaler, Hobbs, Lewington into the mix for the remaining 2 spots.

Hobbs is a sleeper.

yes, I always forget to add Hobbs. he is a sleeper.

I see Carlson and Niskanen as taking on that vet mentoring role, post Orpik. Assuming Carlson stays (which I personally think he will).

 

[Ridley Simon]

Why does the player do that again, exactly?

Especially one who himself along with his agent knew he was not going to have any problem getting that deal from elsewhere. They are not going to just roll over and take less money and less security when they are holding all the cards.

Well, if they feel that they can earn more than 62.8m over 8 years by breaking the contract into 2 pieces, then they do it. NBA guys do it all the time.

Say it was 6.5m for 3 years (so 19.5m total). Then 9.5m for another 5 years (of UFA) as salaries have risen and his performance merits it.

So thats 67m over 8 years, not 62.8m. Or they do the 8yr deal post the bridge (10mx8years).

Lots of options.

 

[Roughing]

The D and G situations are fine. Good veterans and plenty of good prospects. All picks available going forward, too. The issue is putting pucks in the back of the net. The one guy who has been doing loads of that is getting old and we are very thin behind him. Bura, TJ, two good Cs, and, uhh, nothing. Vrana? Connolly? Wilson? Barber? The salary cap situation is not great either. I pray they turn Grubi into a good F. Gonna be a lot of Trotz 2-1 specials this year until he's fired. Zzzzzzz.

 

[strungout]

yes, I always forget to add Hobbs. he is a sleeper.

I see Carlson and Niskanen as taking on that vet mentoring role, post Orpik. Assuming Carlson stays (which I personally think he will).

Personally...I see the Mojo trade making the space needed for Carlson's contract going forward (along with making space for this coming season)...so yeah, I think he's long term.

With the semi glut of D prospects in the system and now Niskanen and Orlov locked in for term...I think they are in good shape there (even with the loss of Schmidt). Get Carlson locked up and they should be good there.

 

[Tweedsuitcase]

so typical to fate that the Ex Draft *helped* pitt and screwed us over.

 

[Ridley Simon]

The D and G situations are fine. Good veterans and plenty of good prospects. All picks available going forward, too. The issue is putting pucks in the back of the net. The one guy who has been doing loads of that is getting old and we are very thin behind him. Bura, TJ, two good Cs, and, uhh, nothing. Vrana? Connolly? Wilson? Barber? The salary cap situation is not great either. I pray they turn Grubi into a good F. Gonna be a lot of Trotz 2-1 specials this year until he's fired. Zzzzzzz.

This is where I hope they use the prospects glut at G and D to add F's. I think they are easier to acquire (wingers, especially). I hope they sign Gersich, and let him play for a spot (a la Sanford last year).

I honestly think Grubauer and Samsanov (heck, even Vanicek) will get dealt. Holtby has another 5 years....just on his current contract. I dont see them holding onto to Samsanov for that long (and certainly not Grubauer). If a deal is to be made, its prob for an F

 

[Langway]

How in the world did the Canadiens have a better offseason?

Overpayed for alzner, overpayed a lot for price, lost radulov, may or may not lose markov and signed hemsky

Acquired Drouin for a promising defenseman but one that may not have made the team next season. That's a definite win in the short-term and helps offset some of the loss of Radulov in giving them another game-breaker. Their centers are weak but had they not landed Drouin it would have been a considerably worse off-season to-date.

Carlson and Bowey both being righties make it unlikely they'll play together too much. The Caps need one of Siegenthaler or Johansen to step up and become a top 4 LD in the next couple seasons.

Orlov - Niskanen
Siegenthaler - Carlson
Johansen - Bowey

Maybe a year from now that's ready, maybe not. Those two LDs being quick studies at the pro level would help an awful lot, as would Djoos showing this season he's a legit NHL talent worth investing in. Hobbs adds further top 4 potential. Between these options, Priskie and their recent picks they've got more than enough developing. I'm not sure about upside with the LDs, though, and that's the most pressing issue to make it a considerable strength.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

yes, I always forget to add Hobbs. he is a sleeper.

I see Carlson and Niskanen as taking on that vet mentoring role, post Orpik. Assuming Carlson stays (which I personally think he will).

BMAC needs to focus on resigning Carlson now. From all indications, Shattenkirk was being heavily pursued by NJ and Buffalo before deciding to sign with the NYR. Right after the MOJO trade Devils fans were talking about the team pursuing Carlson once he hits the UFA market and bringing him home. Looking at right shooting defenseman, there does not seem to be many available come 2018 free agency, so Carlson will be heavily sought after as demonstrated by the recent pursuit of Shattenkirk's services. Two dman from Hershey will be filing the void left by Alzner and Schmidt this season. Chorney and Carlson are both in the last season of their contracts, thus at the very minimum you can see another Hershey dman join the ranks next season and then another one the season after that once Orpik departs. That's a changeover of 4 dman coming from Hershey in a period of three years hence the need to maintain some stability by signing Carlson ASAP!

17/18
Niskanen - Orlov
Hershey - Carlson
Orpik - Hershey
Chorney

18/19
Niskanen -Orlov
Hershey - Carlson
Orpik - Hershey
Hershey

19/20
Niskanen - Orlov
Hershey - Carlson
Hershey - Hershey
Hershey