Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXIV -- The Doggiest Days (Woof!) 2017
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Jags
Mildly Disturbed
Yes. I don't want to see them making any win-now moves next year. Fully evaluate the farm, keep the ones that stick, move the ones that don't, look to trade Grubauer, find a way to make Orpik allergic to his equipment.
I might be on the fence regarding Eller at that point because he could play his way into our good graces. He does everything very well except faceoffs and converting his offensive gifts into actual points. I'm not sure he breaks the bank on his next contract. He might even cost a little less.
The top-4 D thing could resolve itself internally for all we know. I'm not wild about our LD options there, but you're right that we need to be on the lookout.
Orpik's situation gets more interesting next year. If we can keep him in a 3rd pair role, he could have another good year. Getting someone to take on his contract at that point for just the one remaining year might be doable. Almost definitely with retention.
And if it's not, a buyout is more attractive than this year. It would save us $3m immediately, which would cover the cost of extending Carlson. And it would only extend a $1.5m cap hit into the following year, which isn't bad.
I'm still in the camp that says the way Ovi plays now will hurt Kuznetsov. So much of what Kuzy does well requires that his wings move as he does, and Ovi hasn't moved his feet with any regularity in a while. Not sure the "Get it to Ovi!" burden will be a good move for Kuznetsov.
I still think Ovi on the 3rd makes the most sense, both for him and the rest of our roster. Now that we're thinner on top-end talent, we should spread it around to give the young guys better chances to impress. It would suck if we gave up on Vrana because he didn't immediately become an offensive dynamo playing with Eller and Wilson.
Burakovsky - Backstrom - Oshie
Vrana - Kuznetsov - Wilson
Ovechkin - Eller - Connolly
The cap will likely tick up again, Eller might come off the books, Orpik will be easier to get rid of, Grubauer will likely be moved... There will be plenty of ways to get that space.
Maybe, but how long will that last?
Grubauer's value shot up because of his numbers this season playing limited, favorable starts behind the league's #1 defense. It will be much harder for him to put up those numbers again with our downgrades on both offense and defense.
His value may very well be diminishing as we speak.
Agreed. It can help to look at the GM like a player. So even if you think GMBM played real well his first three years, a disaster at the beginning of year 4 isn't any less concerning.
He got outmaneuvered big-time in ways that really hurt us. I'm all for cutting him slack, but this isn't that. Unless he makes a big face-saving move or two, he's going to get skewered in every "Offseason Winners/Losers" article and live segment over the next few months. And he'll deserve it.
Hive made this point a bunch of times. It doesn't take scrutiny of "most teams" to see that there would have been an option prior to expansion. Look no further than New Jersey.
They made shrug-worthy pre-ED moves and had room on their protected list. So even if the return was the same 2nd/3rd picks, it would have allowed us to go 4-4-1 and protect Schmidt.
Grubauer and Schmidt are both valuable guys, but Grubauer was expendable for us and Schmidt definitely wasn't. Not making sure we had that covered was a mistake. The hindsight it takes to see how little he'd be willing to trade MoJo for only makes that mistake more vivid.
This sequence of events was a comedy of errors.
Ridley Simon said:
The point is they could have afforded Schmidt if they moved MoJo. They gambled losing Schmidt in expansion. It was hubris or ignorance. You pick.
So even if they traded MoJo to Jersey for the same weak return, you're left with:
Burakovsky - Backstrom - Oshie
Vrana - Kuznetsov - Wilson
Ovechkin - Eller - Connolly
DSP - Beagle - Barber
Orlov - Niskanen
Schmidt - Carlson
Chorney - Bowey
Holtby
Copley
13F at 650K
7D at 650K (Djoos)
Offensively it's the same roster you have now unless Vegas takes Wilson (otherwise they'd likely have taken Grubauer). Defensively you have Schmidt and the top 4 you wanted.
If you had to buy Orpik out, this would leave you with $2.1 million in cap room. If you find a way to ditch him, you have $4.6 million in cap room.
There were any number of ways to make it work if we hadn't fouled it up so badly in the first place. It's hard to imagine how it could have been handled worse.
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Portable Mink
Registered User
oh we did some stuff did we. oshie, kuzy etc...
cool.
im still broken hearted and cant let myself care about this team or sport at the moment... UGH.
**** the ****ing penguins forever.
cool.
im still broken hearted and cant let myself care about this team or sport at the moment... UGH.
**** the ****ing penguins forever.
RandyHolt
Keep truckin'
- Nov 3, 2006
- 34,773
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Is there any incentive at all for a NCAA kid we drafted, to actually sign with us? I read about Gersich being a free agent, but what's stopping him from signing with Pitt?
The way we openly try to overcook prospects to the point they reach their boiling points, other prospects we draft see that. And then may look at Pitt's playoff roster to help decide where to sign.
I just feel like we suck developing forwards. The few that do get significant time aren't used to their strengths, don't get PP time, don't get top 6 time, don't get proper linemates, etc. A famous GM once said You can never have enough defensemen but you can certainly have a lack of forwards.
No matter which forward prospects we call up, they don't score. This will have to change to win a cup.
The way we openly try to overcook prospects to the point they reach their boiling points, other prospects we draft see that. And then may look at Pitt's playoff roster to help decide where to sign.
I just feel like we suck developing forwards. The few that do get significant time aren't used to their strengths, don't get PP time, don't get top 6 time, don't get proper linemates, etc. A famous GM once said You can never have enough defensemen but you can certainly have a lack of forwards.
No matter which forward prospects we call up, they don't score. This will have to change to win a cup.
The Caps have had a fairly stacked forward group that stayed remarkably healthy for the most part. There hasn't been a lot of opportunities for young guys. That said, the small sample has not been that great in utilizing young forwards.
We'll get a big sample to review this year though. I, for one, look forward to the reasoned analysis this board is known for in evaluating the organization's moves and the young players themselves.
We'll get a big sample to review this year though. I, for one, look forward to the reasoned analysis this board is known for in evaluating the organization's moves and the young players themselves.
OV Rocks
Registered User
So I have taken the holiday weekend to think about the Caps moves this offseason.
Starting from the first move to today.
Oshie- I love the guy and I honestly don't have a problem with the money or the term. He brings it each and every game, there are not a lot of guys on the roster that do that. For the first 4 years of the contract he is going to play to his value, he will PK, PP1 in front of the net, and remain in the top 6. The last four years will potentially be the start of the post Ovechkin Caps, leaving an opening for a player to become the Captain, and my guess is the Oshie fills that role perfectly while being on the 2nd or 3rd line and killing penalties with maybe some PP2 in front of the net.
Orlov- Again I love this guy and the deal is 100% based on what he can do in the future. Orlov has the potential to be a great d-man, maybe a step below PK Subban I see him developing into that style of player this season. Give him PP2 duties, some PK, and then next season play him with a younger guy. It was great to lock him up long time.
Kuznetsov- I think it is pretty obvious they over paid Kuzy by $1.5 million. On the other side, the cap will increase slightly and the 8 years is prime Kuzy. He had a tonnnn of leverage that the Caps have not had to deal with before. Good on him and his agent for playing that card. Kuzy will likely be with Ovi this season and I am excited to see them for a whole season together.
Connolly-No excitement or disappointment either way. If he plays like last year, great, if not throw him on the 4th line.
Burakovksy- Good bridge deal. I think he is going to have a huge season with full top6 time.
I am excited about the lineup the more I look at it. Throw 2 young guys in on the blue line I think there is something like 4-5 guys who have a chance to play this season. Throw some darts at the board and hope that 1-2 of them stick. Maybe they shine and the Caps can unload Orpik at the deadline.
What I want to see
Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Burakovksy
Vrana-Backstrom-Oshie
Connolly-Eller-Wilson
Walker-Beagle-Barber
-Smith-Pelley
Orlov-Niskanen
Djoos-Carlson
Orpik-Bowey
-Lewington
Hotlby
Grubauer
Starting from the first move to today.
Oshie- I love the guy and I honestly don't have a problem with the money or the term. He brings it each and every game, there are not a lot of guys on the roster that do that. For the first 4 years of the contract he is going to play to his value, he will PK, PP1 in front of the net, and remain in the top 6. The last four years will potentially be the start of the post Ovechkin Caps, leaving an opening for a player to become the Captain, and my guess is the Oshie fills that role perfectly while being on the 2nd or 3rd line and killing penalties with maybe some PP2 in front of the net.
Orlov- Again I love this guy and the deal is 100% based on what he can do in the future. Orlov has the potential to be a great d-man, maybe a step below PK Subban I see him developing into that style of player this season. Give him PP2 duties, some PK, and then next season play him with a younger guy. It was great to lock him up long time.
Kuznetsov- I think it is pretty obvious they over paid Kuzy by $1.5 million. On the other side, the cap will increase slightly and the 8 years is prime Kuzy. He had a tonnnn of leverage that the Caps have not had to deal with before. Good on him and his agent for playing that card. Kuzy will likely be with Ovi this season and I am excited to see them for a whole season together.
Connolly-No excitement or disappointment either way. If he plays like last year, great, if not throw him on the 4th line.
Burakovksy- Good bridge deal. I think he is going to have a huge season with full top6 time.
I am excited about the lineup the more I look at it. Throw 2 young guys in on the blue line I think there is something like 4-5 guys who have a chance to play this season. Throw some darts at the board and hope that 1-2 of them stick. Maybe they shine and the Caps can unload Orpik at the deadline.
What I want to see
Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Burakovksy
Vrana-Backstrom-Oshie
Connolly-Eller-Wilson
Walker-Beagle-Barber
-Smith-Pelley
Orlov-Niskanen
Djoos-Carlson
Orpik-Bowey
-Lewington
Hotlby
Grubauer
Langway
In den Wolken
- Jul 7, 2006
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Then why did they try to trade with Vegas so that he wasn't selected? Why did they admit they were just gambling Grubauer would be taken instead if he was a goner?
We talk about planning and the time they had since the season ended but the salary cap figure was only announced on 6/18. Expansion draft protection lists were due the day before. Any previous time where they wanted to work out a Pledge trade with Vegas would have been somewhat speculative based on where the cap ended up. So they didn't really have a tremendous amount of time to plan and it goes to show that they also likely didn't have the various scenarios fleshed out with a great deal of care. MacLellan was on the record hoping for a $77M cap and wasn't sure they could fit Oshie in otherwise. They chose Oshie, consequences now and going forward be damned.
strungout
Professional Killer
In regards to anything having to do with Vegas and how it relates to planning....Im almost certain Makfi wasn't going to take it easy on the Caps regardless of if they wanted to take Schmidt or Grubauer. We saw some of the deals made...the Caps could have come up with something similar...but Mafki had all the bargaining power in any scenario involving the Caps.
So when it comes to them being able to plan anything in terms of the expansion draft....Im sure that wasnt something easy to deal with and who they were dealing with.
twabby
Registered User
- Mar 9, 2010
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Even in the best case scenario where McPhee does the Capitals a solid and selects Grubauer the Capitals would have needed to shed salary in order to fit their RFAs under the cap. So why not do this before the expansion draft where the asking price is likely higher (or at worst the same as July) and then proceed with protecting the players you want to protect to avoid the worst case scenario?
Everything reeks of unpreparedness and hoping for the best. Hoping that Grubauer is selected, hoping the salary cap comes in closer to $77M, hoping the RFAs come in at numbers that fit.
I don't buy that management should be given a break just because the expansion draft was an exceptional circumstance. Everyone knew the rules for months and had ample time to prepare for every possible scenario. Plenty of other teams navigated the expansion draft shrewdly, why shouldn't we expect the same out of the Capitals? It's tough to think of a team that has had a worse offseason.
strungout
Professional Killer
Im not giving them a break per se....but Im giving them the benefit of a doubt when it comes to dealing with Vegas in terms of the other teams that made deals and how their existing GM is this teams former GM (along with quite a bit of the same staffing that were former Capitals employees).
Vegas had ALL the cards for what they were going to do with the Caps selection. Seeing what they got from the likes of Columbus and the Islanders....Im sure they asked for the moon when in came to Schmidt...and when looking at the whole picture...they made a call to just let him go, sign Oshie, sign all the other RFA's, deal off Mojo after Kuzy's AAV went higher...and go with youth.
I can't blame them for making some stupid deal to keep Schmidt. I like Schmidt...but I dont like him enough to move the earth for Vegas to take someone else.
I didnt think they would be able to re-sign Oshie with all the other crap going on....so doing that AND getting all the other RFA's under contract seems like an ok offseason so far.
It could be a lot worse.
hockeykicker
Moderator
- Dec 3, 2014
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twabby
Registered User
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I disagree, this is as close to a realistic worst-case scenario as possible. They lost a top 4 defenseman and a top 6 forward for peanuts when they only needed to lose one.
Kuzy's approximate AAV should have been known in advance through negotiations. They should have anticipated the KHL threat and prepared accordingly (i.e. made a trade before the expansion draft). I'm wouldn't have been against the idea of trading Johansson before the draft in order to protect Schmidt.
I'm not sure what McPhee's ask for Schmidt was so the decision to not pay for Schmidt might be okay in a vacuum, but if they anticipated that McPhee was going to ask for the moon for Schmidt (a reasonable worst-case scenario) why expose him in the first place? If the Capitals are going with a youth movement, why not protect Schmidt who figures to be a top 4 D for years to come? Why sign Oshie for 8 years if they are going for a youth movement? Why insist on keeping Orpik at that price tag? It doesn't even seem like they entertained the idea of trading or buying out Orpik when both options make sense for the team.
Nothing makes sense this offseason.
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Langway
In den Wolken
- Jul 7, 2006
- 32,392
- 9,104
Worst off-seasons thus far IMO:
1. Washington
2. Montreal
3. Florida
4. Colorado
5. Chicago
They had a lot of room to fall and they have. So much is being banked on incredible value via cheap players and a lame duck coach piecing together enough to make the playoffs. They've made a series of moves that still don't really alter much of the team's DNA. It's just an inferior version with a lot of suspect hopes that younger players figure it out and the coach is flexible enough not to get in the way of it. Signing a veteran LD on the cheap would help a bit but they're still bound to have had the worst off-season. If Montreal brings Markov back shuffle them down to #4.
Their best-case is that these fresh contracts aren't an issue in two or three years time and by that point the youth has developed into a solid supporting cast. For me the mix remains off and they haven't even taken a step back to contemplate it. They've just hunkered down yet again to hold on to as much as possible while relying on filler wherever it's needed. There's still no real coherent identity and so there's no real coherent strategy at play either. It's just convenience and piecemeal.
Cap management is very important but you also can't get bogged down in just that, particularly when discipline isn't a value. It's still about building a team and there's little in the way of evolution at work behind these moves. They've just gotten younger and more unproven in the hope that maybe there are some surprises and maybe the likes of 65/10/43 are ready to step it up. It still doesn't really even begin to get into varying types of talent, chemistry or anything on that level. It's just convenience and then relying on a lame duck to make it work. I'll give Trotz props if he can but it's an off-season that to this point only reinforces the need for a total house-cleaning.
1. Washington
2. Montreal
3. Florida
4. Colorado
5. Chicago
They had a lot of room to fall and they have. So much is being banked on incredible value via cheap players and a lame duck coach piecing together enough to make the playoffs. They've made a series of moves that still don't really alter much of the team's DNA. It's just an inferior version with a lot of suspect hopes that younger players figure it out and the coach is flexible enough not to get in the way of it. Signing a veteran LD on the cheap would help a bit but they're still bound to have had the worst off-season. If Montreal brings Markov back shuffle them down to #4.
Their best-case is that these fresh contracts aren't an issue in two or three years time and by that point the youth has developed into a solid supporting cast. For me the mix remains off and they haven't even taken a step back to contemplate it. They've just hunkered down yet again to hold on to as much as possible while relying on filler wherever it's needed. There's still no real coherent identity and so there's no real coherent strategy at play either. It's just convenience and piecemeal.
Cap management is very important but you also can't get bogged down in just that, particularly when discipline isn't a value. It's still about building a team and there's little in the way of evolution at work behind these moves. They've just gotten younger and more unproven in the hope that maybe there are some surprises and maybe the likes of 65/10/43 are ready to step it up. It still doesn't really even begin to get into varying types of talent, chemistry or anything on that level. It's just convenience and then relying on a lame duck to make it work. I'll give Trotz props if he can but it's an off-season that to this point only reinforces the need for a total house-cleaning.
strungout
Professional Killer
Total house cleaning? Really? We're to that point after this?
I get laughing at two presidents trophies in a row with no playoff success to go with them...but they've been the best regular season team two years in a row. Just cant get over the hump of the 2nd round...PLAYING THE TEAM THAT WON THE CUP IN BOTH OF THOSE YEARS.
I get it. I was done when they lost too. But I've come back to reality. Its bad and hasnt been a great offseason...but it really really could be a hell of a lot worse.
I'm with them bringing up the kids to spark the rest of the line up. Could it fail miserably? Sure! But could also be what they have not tried in the last two seasons that could help them move forward with the existing core. I see what Pittsburgh did with Rust and Guentzel and the like...thats what the Caps will need from Walker and Boyd or whoever.
Yeah, its not a given...but its worth a shot before blowing the whole thing up and starting over. We're really not there yet. We've all seen that bottom...we're no where close to that point yet.
I get laughing at two presidents trophies in a row with no playoff success to go with them...but they've been the best regular season team two years in a row. Just cant get over the hump of the 2nd round...PLAYING THE TEAM THAT WON THE CUP IN BOTH OF THOSE YEARS.
I get it. I was done when they lost too. But I've come back to reality. Its bad and hasnt been a great offseason...but it really really could be a hell of a lot worse.
I'm with them bringing up the kids to spark the rest of the line up. Could it fail miserably? Sure! But could also be what they have not tried in the last two seasons that could help them move forward with the existing core. I see what Pittsburgh did with Rust and Guentzel and the like...thats what the Caps will need from Walker and Boyd or whoever.
Yeah, its not a given...but its worth a shot before blowing the whole thing up and starting over. We're really not there yet. We've all seen that bottom...we're no where close to that point yet.
hockeykicker
Moderator
- Dec 3, 2014
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How in the world did the Canadiens have a better offseason?
Overpayed for alzner, overpayed a lot for price, lost radulov, may or may not lose markov and signed hemsky
I have been highly critical of the Caps offseason, but I don't think they've been the worst. I could listen to arguments for being #3-5. Montreal and Florida really did some damage to their teams, more so than Washington did, in my opinion. Colorado might have done worse as well.
No.
At no time does buying out Orpik this summer, and add 4 more years of wasted cap space, make sense. If that is/was your solution to allowing them to somehow afford Schmidt, then thats worse than what happened. IMO.
We dont know what Schmidt will make. But if its north of 2.5m, they couldnt have afforded it. Period. They cant take a 2.5m defender now as it is, without MaJo. So again, I'm not exactly sure why people keep bringing this up.
IF Schmidt makes 2.5m + on his new contract, then the only way we could have afforded him was to move out even more salary than they did w Johansson. (or allow Orlov or Kuznetsov to play in the KHKL). We have NO idea what that would have looked like, but we can surmise it would have looked just as ugly (if not moreso) than the Johansson deal.
twabby
Registered User
- Mar 9, 2010
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They likely couldn't have afforded Schmidt and all the RFAs if they insisted on keeping Orpik. That's the problem. Buying out Orpik would have given them plenty of room to keep Schmidt (upwards of $4.38M AAV according to my CapFriendly analysis) and the RFAs assuming they traded Johansson for futures and Grubauer was selected by Vegas and replaced with Copley.
They woefully mis-read the Kuznetsov contract situation (KHL). We dont know if a bridge deal was ever discussed. Perhaps it was, and then they decided to take the longer term one (cost certainty) once they saw that Schmidt was gone. We dont really know.
As has been stated before, there were too many balls in the air for the team, and they made some mistakes. Far too many things had to break their way for them to have afforded Schmidt at 2.5m + (or Grubauer at 2+m). It broker wrong, and it left them scrambling.
So for all the hindsight people:
Sure, they could have tried to trade MaJo before the expansion draft (which would have meant they would have had to get another eligible forward back, since they had too get Graovac as it was, yes? Maybe not...I honestly dont know). They amount of teams that could have traded for MaJo before the X-Draft was limited. probably less than 5.
So they then go 4-4-1. Probably losing Wilson? Or maybe Grubauer? If they lose Wilson, then perhaps they could have re-signed Schmidt at 2.5+. If they lose Grubauer, then they still have the issue they have now. If Kuz and Orlov were hard on their numbers, and had the KHL hanging over managements heads, then we would have had to trade Schmidt anyway.
Look: It obviously could have gone a dozen different ways. In the end, it went the way it did. I can see a few alternative results that could have been worse than where they are. Some better too. But we all have the benefit of hindsight here. Lets not pretend that any of us would have done any better. GMBM had a very hard job this summer, and he's done middling. Those that think they could have done better are LOL to me. You have no clue what you are talking about. Literally none.
Buying out Orpik would have hamstrung them going forward. For the next 4 years. That would have been a stupid decision, and we will just need to disagree on that. We over value Schmidt. He's not worth 4 years of dead cap space (probably the last 4 years of Ovechkin's time w the Caps)
trick9
Registered User
- Jun 2, 2013
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twabby
Registered User
- Mar 9, 2010
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Here's the team I made with CapFriendly showing Schmidt able to be signed for up to $4.38M assuming an Orpik buyout, Grubauer being selected, and Johansson traded for futures:
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/405238
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/405238
Save your breath. We have a few posters that are positive that they could have done better had they been in charge.
There is no way to refute that, and its so easy to say what should have been done in hindsight. Its nowhere near as doom and gloom as people make it out to be. It's just not. The team HAD to take some steps backwards due to the salary Cap. Everyone knew it. It's been brutal.
But we kept the best players that we could (Oshie, Kuznetsov, Orlov, and Burakovsky), and lost the ones we couldnt (Schmidt, Williams, Johansson, Alzner, and Shattenkirk). Off-season is over yet. Still time to add a Vet D (and perhaps F) to round out the team.
Other than that, let the armchair GM's have their say. It is what it is.
twabby
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- Mar 9, 2010
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It would have allowed them to keep Schmidt for the first two years which is hardly hamstringing them, and a $1.5M cap hit in 2019-20 and 2020-21 is something that can be navigated around and something you should gladly accept if that is the price to keep Schmidt.
strungout
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