Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVI (Winning...MEH)

[txpd]

Yes but Vegas can only claim one, maybe they take Wilson over Johansson, but I doubt it.

I assume we agree the four projected forwards would be Ovie, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and Burakovsky.

Which is why it am fairly sure you will see them use the 7F 3D option. They can more easily replace 1 bottom 3 defenseman than three or four forwards(assuming the Caps lose the pending ufa's plus a player picked in the expansion draft.

For instance, if Wilson shows offensive improvement and then is lost in the X draft while Williams and Oshie are lost to UFA, that is going to be harder to replace than losing Orlov and adding Bowey, say

 

[um]

Which is why it am fairly sure you will see them use the 7F 3D option. They can more easily replace 1 bottom 3 defenseman than three or four forwards(assuming the Caps lose the pending ufa's plus a player picked in the expansion draft.

that's my preference, but its still 2 years of Mojo vs ??? of Orlov. It should depend on how talks between the Caps and Orlov are going, and it's likely Orlov will want a short term deal to get to UFA.

 

[RandyHolt]

Suppose Kuz isn't around one day, his agent asking market 8M, BMac... handcuffed.

Oshie takes an awful lot of draws. Is there any way he could play center? I know he isn't the fastest guy but he hustles likely more than anyone on the team, which goes a long way to make up for a lack-o-speed. Ignore his likely contract demands, age etc.

 

[twabby]

Suppose Kuz isn't around one day, his agent asking market 8M, BMac... handcuffed.

Oshie takes an awful lot of draws. Is there any way he could play center? I know he isn't the fastest guy but he hustles likely more than anyone on the team, which goes a long way to make up for a lack-o-speed. Ignore his likely contract demands, age etc.

There's more to being a center than taking draws. He'd be in his 30s after Kuznetsov would be gone in your scenario, and asking a career RW to move to center late in his career isn't likely to work out.

 

[RandyHolt]

There's more to being a center than taking draws. He'd be in his 30s after Kuznetsov would be gone in your scenario, and asking a career RW to move to center late in his career isn't likely to work out.

I am aware that being a C is more than faceoffs. Nick will be in his 30's too. I actually asked that you ignore his age.

Tell me where you think he would fail asked to play center for the next 10 games. Too slow on the back check. What else do you have.

 

[twabby]

Being the central distributor and playmaker on offense, for one. Vision and passing aren't his best skills.

 

[MrGone]

Suppose Kuz isn't around one day, his agent asking market 8M, BMac... handcuffed.

Its like a bad nightmare all over again. We had a 6m defenseman that did not play defense. And now we are going to have the 6m center that is around 40% in the dot.

I want nothing to do with that.

 

[trick9]

Its like a bad nightmare all over again. We had a 6m defenseman that did not play defense. And now we are going to have the 6m center that is around 40% in the dot.

I want nothing to do with that.

Russians are generally pretty bad at face-offs. If that's your main worry then it's not that big one because last few Cup -winners had Russian 2C that are around 40% in the dot and they are being paid ~6 and ~9.5m per year.

 

[twabby]

Its like a bad nightmare all over again. We had a 6m defenseman that did not play defense. And now we are going to have the 6m center that is around 40% in the dot.

I want nothing to do with that.

Agreed, faceoff percentage is the best indicator of how good a center is.

Take, for instance, horrible center Evgeni Malkin and his career faceoff percentage of 43.6%.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Its like a bad nightmare all over again. We had a 6m defenseman that did not play defense. And now we are going to have the 6m center that is around 40% in the dot.

I want nothing to do with that.

Having a $6M center that is 40% on faceoffs is nowhere near as bad as having a $6M D who plays on the 3rd pair and can't play defense.

We can work around Kuzy's inability to win faceoffs by having one of our faceoffs taking wingers such as MJ, Oshie or Williams next to him.

Kuzy is certainly not the first #1C who unable to win faceoffs. His namesake in Pittsburgh can't win faceoffs either.

EDIT: Twabby beat me to it

 

[Langway]

Being the central distributor and playmaker on offense, for one. Vision and passing aren't his best skills.

They were in St. Louis. Not so much in Washington and I don't think it's just a matter of him slowing down. Of course, he doesn't have other essential attributes you'd want in a center like lateral mobililty or size.

 

[txpd]

Its like a bad nightmare all over again. We had a 6m defenseman that did not play defense. And now we are going to have the 6m center that is around 40% in the dot.

I want nothing to do with that.

You know. Mike Green has been gone two years now. You have to let it go and find a new identity one day.

 

[artilector]

You know. Mike Green has been gone two years now. You have to let it go and find a new identity one day.

But the blood is still dripping from my pitchfork..

 

[RandyHolt]

They were in St. Louis. Not so much in Washington and I don't think it's just a matter of him slowing down. Of course, he doesn't have other essential attributes you'd want in a center like lateral mobililty or size.

Thanks for chiming in. I feel like in a pinch hitting role, he would do fine. It wasn't a serious thought I entertained, just more curious what the board thought. But a guy having a high faceoff rate, should lend to helping in other C areas of need, specifically minimizing DZ time.

The guy has offensive awareness out the wazoo, if that is still a word.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think he'd do fine as a C as a substitute. Not optimal but I doubt he would embarrass himself either. Strong hockey IQ.

 

[The Instigator]

I actually don't think it would be all that hard to convince Las Vegas not to select Orlov if we do the 7F and 3D route. Give them a couple pieces, maybe Galiev and a prospect/pick to not select him and choose someone else instead. If they say no we could just trade Orlov to a team that will protect him and Las Vegas gets the player from the first scenario anyways, minus the additional assets.

 

[The Instigator]

Like, look at the garbage that San Jose and Buffalo gave up so that Columbus/Minnesota wouldn't pick a prime Evgeni Nabokov or a Dominik Hasek.

 

[HecticGlow]

I actually don't think it would be all that hard to convince Las Vegas not to select Orlov if we do the 7F and 3D route. Give them a couple pieces, maybe Galiev and a prospect/pick to not select him and choose someone else instead. If they say no we could just trade Orlov to a team that will protect him and Las Vegas gets the player from the first scenario anyways, minus the additional assets.

On the trade/prospects section of this forum, it was strongly suggested that bribery will be banned this time around, and additional players could be foreifeted for trying to circumvent the rules. And I dont think you'd be able to trade away such a player between the TDL and the prospect draw, so any agreement/handshake would have to take place months before LV is drafting (and a lot could change in the run up - teams only submit there protected lists a few days before the draft).

One guy none of us have mentioned because he's relatively new is Lars Eller - who'll still have another year on his contract. His cap hit is $3.5m - that's potentially the difference between Alzner and Oshie both staying, while so far the evidence is a bottom-6 with Beagle and Sanford (or another cheap rookie like Stephenson) at Center wouldn't be much of a downgrade. He's a relatively skilled player with enough youth on his side - maybe Las Vegas takes him if we not protect him, and we trade him away for picks if they don't?


Holtby; Ovi, Backstrom, Kuzy, Bura, Mojo, Oshie (if re-signed), Wilson; Carlson, Niskanen, Alzner.

Core is very much in tact, with Eller, Orlov, Schmidt, Orpik and Grubi the only players still under contract who are exposed. Eller could easily be taken over Orlov if LV are looking for a decent middle-6 Center who can play wing, PK (allegedly.) and offer a degree of offence (degree TBC.). And worst case scenario there is we've spent two 2nd rounders on one year of a 3C - a slim price for a contender compared to rental costs.

Either way, I see it more that younger players like Vrana, Sanford and Barber are going to be relied upon over Winnik and Williams, rather than we'll lose all our UFAs.

 

[Hivemind]

Several years ago, Bill Simmons wrote a piece on Russell Westbrook. It was around the time of many of the Mike Green debates, so it stuck with me. It's still relevant today.

http://grantland.com/features/that-boy-competed/

I actually ran into Van Gundy outside a Miami hotel on Monday night, one day before the biggest game of Westbrook’s young life. I brought up his Francis comparison and threw one of my hairbrained theories at him: the “10 Percent Theory.†Even the best NBA players have holes; in a best-case scenario, they’re tapping into about 90 percent of their total potential, with the holes representing the other 10 percent. We can either dwell on the 90 percent or the 10 percent … and some holes are less glaring than others. For instance, Larry Bird’s biggest hole was his inability to defend quicker forwards without help. (Same for Dirk Nowitzki.) You could hide that specific hole on the right team, with the right coaches, the right teammates and even the right matchups. But something like Rajon Rondo’s shaky jumpshot, or the Botox Face that afflicted Karl Malone in crunch time? There’s a case of the 10 percent flashing like a neon sign. Again, some holes are more glaring than others. But EVERYONE has holes.

On Oklahoma City, it’s tougher to see Kevin Durant’s 10 percent (he’s not strong enough yet to prevent defenders like Shane Battier from hounding him 25 feet from the basket and denying him the ball, and he’s not a consistently good enough defender yet) than Westbrook’s 10 percent (his recklessness, which permeates everything he does, good and bad). You notice when Westbrook shoots 27 times, you notice when he bricks an ill-fated 3 in a huge spot, and you notice when he’s bowling someone over for a charge because he thought he could dunk over three guys.

Still, as I mentioned to Van Gundy, Westbrook does so many positive things that those 10 percent plays are something of a tax for the overall Westbrook package, right? Van Gundy agreed wholeheartedly. He believed Oklahoma City needed to win or lose this series on their own terms, not some idealistic, media-driven belief about how they SHOULD be playing. Westbrook will never be John Stockton. It ain’t happening. We both wanted to see Westbrook be Westbrook again, one of the league’s most fearless competitors, someone who brings a ton of things to the table and takes a few things off, too.

 

[um]

Like, look at the garbage that San Jose and Buffalo gave up so that Columbus/Minnesota wouldn't pick a prime Evgeni Nabokov or a Dominik Hasek.

I wonder how much it would cost to get them to take Orpik.

 

[artilector]

Several years ago, Bill Simmons wrote a piece on Russell Westbrook. It was around the time of many of the Mike Green debates, so it stuck with me. It's still relevant today.

http://grantland.com/features/that-boy-competed/

It's an interesting thing to debate.

I don't quite buy the 10% thing with Westbrook, because I've seen too many close games where he literally didn't give his team a chance because he hogged the ball and made consistently bad decisions to an extent that just does not work against elite teams. Imagine a hockey player that always gets the puck, and then refuses to pass or get off the ice, haha. I agree that when you are a dealt a flawed star player, you've got to do everything possible (if necessary -- unconventional!) to make it work, but in Westbrook's case, he had certain flaws that were nearly impossible to overcome (IMO) without him actually fixing some of them.. because PG in basketball (QB in NFL) is one of those unique positions in sports where a selfish (in a narrow sense) player with low IQ can absolutely single-handedly kill your chances, because the whole team depends on the decisions he makes.

Westbrook has been improving though, he is an absolute beast and a warrior -- to me, the (non-exact) comparison is actually Ovi... These Achilles-like characters are amazing to watch in sports... and once you appreciate the full extent and uniqueness of their talent, hard to root against.

As for Green, I could live with his overall performance in itself. The deal-breakers for me where 1) question of health/playoff run durability, and 2) the issue of paying 6M+ long term for a guy that's not really (needed) in your top-4 any more.

If Westbrook had some critical health concerns and was getting paid max money to come off the bench, I'd be very wary of extending him, too, especially if that meant losing significant pieces on a team that wants to contend (soon).

 

[Ajax1995]

More evidence of Bowey's suspect toolbox I guess...

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

8-19-77

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