Accruing cap space.

[Stoneman89]

I keep forgetting we still have almost 2 million of that turd neals cap hit next year as well

Insane how much cap space we are just wasting. It is like #1 dman money

That's Holland's gift that keeps on giving. At least we aren't paying any more salary now (cap space) for the guy we traded for him for.

 

[Stoneman89]

It's unreal how little use the Oilers have gotten out of many of these larger spends:

Lucic - Played 1 OK season, it's 2024 and we're still paying for him to not be on the roster (via Neal).

Kassian - Signed a hefty extension and then played like 4 good games total for the team after then bought out for a 2nd + 3rd.

Koskinen - Multi year extension for no reason, had one good season.

Athansiou - Spend 2 2nd round picks for 1 goal total in an Oiler jersey.

Campbell - 5 million multi-year extension, guy has given us like 5 good regular season games + 2 good periods in the playoffs.

Brown - 3.25 million performance bonus on the following year's cap for 0 goals and we're past the trade deadline.

Yeah there are some mitigating factors to some of this, but really this is so bizarre it's almost hard to believe how little juice we've gotten from some very expensive oranges. If the Oilers went to a grocery store I swear they'd some how end up spending $20 for 1 liter of milk with a leaky carton.

You forgot about trading for the band-aid Mike Green, giving up Brodziak and a 4th rounder. And he followed the script, getting hurt in his 2nd game with us, and then, never playing one playoff game, and then finally, retiring at the end of the season.

 

[bone]

You forgot about trading for the band-aid Mike Green, giving up Brodziak and a 4th rounder. And he followed the script, getting hurt in his 2nd game with us, and then, never playing one playoff game, and then finally, retiring at the end of the season.

That's likely the only period that I give Holland a bit of a break on. Covid really shit on his deadline acquisitions. We really have no idea whether they may have been able to help had life gone on as normal. Furthermore the suddenly flat cap devalued the AA asset to being nothing. Turns out AA never did pan out anywhere, but that trade maybe doesn't turn out as badly without the circumstances around COVID>

 

[Stoneman89]

That's likely the only period that I give Holland a bit of a break on. Covid really shit on his deadline acquisitions. We really have no idea whether they may have been able to help had life gone on as normal. Furthermore the suddenly flat cap devalued the AA asset to being nothing. Turns out AA never did pan out anywhere, but that trade maybe doesn't turn out as badly without the circumstances around COVID>

True, but I guess with Green, when you trade for a player that has a recent injury history and the wrong side of 30, don't be surprised and say woe is me when he, guess what........gets injured. Like buying a car that is ready for the scrap heap, and then being shocked when you find out the engine or transmission on it goes.

 

[bone]

True, but I guess with Green, when you trade for a player that has a recent injury history and the wrong side of 30, don't be surprised and say woe is me when he, guess what........gets injured. Like buying a car that is ready for the scrap heap, and then being shocked when you find out the engine or transmission on it goes.

Fine, but he was acquired for a 4th and the Brodziak LTIR retirement contract. It's not like it was much, and I suspect if things hadn't shut down he may have had a role to play as the injury was only expected to be 3-4 weeks.

Him skipping the bubble was less about injury and more about him just deciding it wasn't worth it to leave his family for 3-10 weeks at his age to likely be the 6th/7th dman.

 

[CycloneSweep]

This should be a sticky.

I believe it is not in the Oilers interest, to call anyone up before the playoffs begin even if we have the cap space, and this has everything to do with Brown's bonus situation.

And we can't send down an additional player without waiving them. Holloway and Broberg never needed waivers and Gagner cleared them. So unless the Oilers would risk losing an additional player by waiving them the Oilers cap situation should be stagnant for the rest of the year.

I believe we are still accumulating accrued cap space that should help soften the blow of the bonuses for next season by paying off of an ever increasing amount this season. $1,143,956 and rising.

I am no expert. Everything I said may be wrong. Even if some of it is partially correct I likely used the wrong CBA terminology.

I don't mind Brown. If he signs for 1.25M next season I would be happy to have him back.

You would give Brown a raise?? In what world would that be a good message to anyone. “Hey be absolutely useless offensively, be average defensively and get a raise.” If Broens back it’s league minimum, not a penny more.

Don't necessarily disagree on any of those three, but I'd also argue that you're not guaranteed to get 10 goals out of other signings at their price points anyways (assuming Brown's around league minimum next year). So the question becomes can you find someone to pot 10 at a similar price point, and if you can, are you sure they won't just piss away the additional offence that by allowing much more against.

With Ryan my point is mute since he's starting to get scored against more often, and for a smallish player Hamblin may be able to replace him anyways, but Janmark and Brown have done a decent job of helping the 4th line not be a constant negative.

Almost any league min player would have more offensive ability than Brown.

 

[mkatcherin00]

It's unreal how little use the Oilers have gotten out of many of these larger spends:

Lucic - Played 1 OK season, it's 2024 and we're still paying for him to not be on the roster (via Neal).

Kassian - Signed a hefty extension and then played like 4 good games total for the team after then bought out for a 2nd + 3rd.

Koskinen - Multi year extension for no reason, had one good season.

Athansiou - Spend 2 2nd round picks for 1 goal total in an Oiler jersey.

Campbell - 5 million multi-year extension, guy has given us like 5 good regular season games + 2 good periods in the playoffs.

Brown - 3.25 million performance bonus on the following year's cap for 0 goals and we're past the trade deadline.

Yeah there are some mitigating factors to some of this, but really this is so bizarre it's almost hard to believe how little juice we've gotten from some very expensive oranges. If the Oilers went to a grocery store I swear they'd some how end up spending $20 for 1 liter of milk with a leaky carton.

That is called terrible pro scouting. Just dumping money down the drain

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Don't necessarily disagree on any of those three, but I'd also argue that you're not guaranteed to get 10 goals out of other signings at their price points anyways (assuming Brown's around league minimum next year). So the question becomes can you find someone to pot 10 at a similar price point, and if you can, are you sure they won't just piss away the additional offence that by allowing much more against.

With Ryan my point is mute since he's starting to get scored against more often, and for a smallish player Hamblin may be able to replace him anyways, but Janmark and Brown have done a decent job of helping the 4th line not be a constant negative.

I understand there is more nuance to the position. But any forward that can't score 10 is a liability already.

Even if they're defensively sound like Eric Belanger, not scoring 10 is a liability.

We spend too much time and energy developing crap like Jujhar Khaira. Brown would actually have been a bad signing if he were at 10 goals. At his cap hit he should be at 20.


Not scoring 10 goals means they're either not NHL calibre players or a prospect who isn't ready.

 

[Stoneman89]

Fine, but he was acquired for a 4th and the Brodziak LTIR retirement contract. It's not like it was much, and I suspect if things hadn't shut down he may have had a role to play as the injury was only expected to be 3-4 weeks.

Him skipping the bubble was less about injury and more about him just deciding it wasn't worth it to leave his family for 3-10 weeks at his age to likely be the 6th/7th dman.

Let's be honest, he likely would have got hurt first game of the playoffs anyhow!

As for 4th not being much. As they say, watch your pennies and the dollars will take care of themselves.

 

[foshizzle]

Does all the cap space we accrue this year go to pay off Brown's bonus? Maybe that had a hand in deadline moves?

It’s not much at all that goes towards the bonus. Deadline cap space and annual cap space are different. It’ll be a nominal amount

That's Chia's gift that keeps on giving. At least we aren't paying any more salary now (cap space) for the guy we traded for him for.

It wasn’t Chia that bought him out, it was Holland. He should have bought out Koskinen and kept Neal on the books. Should have moved Kassian. He will add Campbell to that dead cap space as well as 2M overpay for Nurse.

 

[Stoneman89]

It’s not much at all that goes towards the bonus. Deadline cap space and annual cap space are different. It’ll be a nominal amount


It wasn’t Chia that bought him out, it was Holland. He should have bought out Koskinen and kept Neal on the books. Should have moved Kassian. He will add Campbell to that dead cap space as well as 2M overpay for Nurse.

Must have been out by a year or so for GM's regarding Neal. Kassian should never have been given a multi year contract in the first place, based on a little splurge while playing up the lineup and having a great playoff game against the Sharks. But Oilers are famous for that. Both Pisani and Horcoff cashed in from one playoff run and then reverted back to what they really were for the rest of their careers. Nurse led the league in goals while playing in the Covid Canadian division, a lot of it at the expense of the sad sack Senators, and cashed in right after that.
They either buy out Campbell or dump him onto a bottom feeder, but that will cost us. So, either loss of draft capital or having him on the books for a while.

 

[bone]

I understand there is more nuance to the position. But any forward that can't score 10 is a liability already.

Even if they're defensively sound like Eric Belanger, not scoring 10 is a liability.

We spend too much time and energy developing crap like Jujhar Khaira. Brown would actually have been a bad signing if he were at 10 goals. At his cap hit he should be at 20.


Not scoring 10 goals means they're either not NHL calibre players or a prospect who isn't ready.

289 Forwards scored 10 or more goals last year. 32 teams x 12 forwards = 384. So there's roughly 100 players that won't meet that bar. Roughly 3 per team on average.

In other words, 4th liners aren't expected to score 10 goals.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

289 Forwards scored 10 or more goals last year. 32 teams x 12 forwards = 384. So there's roughly 100 players that won't meet that bar. Roughly 3 per team on average.

In other words, 4th liners aren't expected to score 10 goals.

Interesting way of breaking down stats.
It's also a great methodology to follow if you plan to ice a team that is 'average' (median).

Not that I looked this up, or care too deeply, but you might want to compare the differences between contending teams (top 5 teams) vs bottom 5, and see if you notice any difference.

And as a second excercise, see how many of those non-10 goal scoring forwards who are free agents are extended, or if these contending teams try to improve on them?

Also.. you're looking at raw stats, whereas I'm including players who "track" for 10 goals in a season
More specifically, players who score 0.122 goals per game.
I honestly feel forwards who can't hit the 0.122 GPG are not NHL caliber players.


Let me run through the first example:
Last year the Bruins had 16 forwards who paced for 10 goals.

Boston Bruins 2022-23 roster and scoring statistics at hockeydb.com

The roster, scoring and goaltender statistics for the 2022-23 Boston Bruins playing in the NHL.

www.hockeydb.com

The 2 notable forwards who did NOT pace for 10 goals?
AJ Greer - now a Flame
Craig Smith - Now a Star

Interesting thing about Smith, is that he did pace for 10 after being traded to Washington, and has a very long career of scoring 20. He's 34, and Boston didn't wanna make that bet.



So... EVERY Boston Bruin forward, and several replacements scored at a 10 goal per game pace.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

f***it. I'll do another:

Vegas Golden Knights 2022-23 roster and scoring statistics at hockeydb.com

The roster, scoring and goaltender statistics for the 2022-23 Vegas Golden Knights playing in the NHL.

www.hockeydb.com

Stanley Cup winning Las Vegas Golden Knights had 14 forwards who paced for 10+ goals.

The notable Forward who didn't pace for 10 was Keegan Kolesar who is under contract until next year. Unless he can break out next season my guess is Vegas boots him when his contract is up, or trades him away.

 

[alanschu]

Colorado had 9 (including the trade for Lehkonen who played 16 games and had 6 goals).
Tampa had 11
Tampa had 11 (again)
St. Louis had 12
Washington had 10
Pittsburgh had 10
Pittburgh had 10 again (Though Bennett only played 33 games, and only 1 in the playoffs. Interestingly David Perron was only at 4 in 43 games before he got traded)

I'll concede that scoring is up in recent years, though.

I honestly feel forwards who can't hit the 0.122 GPG are not NHL caliber players.

I think this needs a better clarification TBH. Championship calibre teams tend to have more players that can score a goal every 10ish games. But I don't think that forward aren't able to pot that consistently are not NHL caliber players either.

I agree with the sentiment that teams roll the dice on different players hoping to squeeze out a bit more depth scoring, but because someone is a journeyman that bounces around to several teams doesn't mean that they aren't NHL caliber.

(I'd actually posit that there are typically more NHL caliber players than there are NHL roster spots as the AHL is filled with players that would likely do fine but don't get another chance for a variety of reasons - often age)

 

[bucks_oil]

Next Oiler GM going to join the team with priorities of adding a top 6 forward, top 3 D, and quite possibly a goaltender but having limited cap space left by his predecessor

When Holland arrived he inherited this lineup (as per our game vs Vegas that April which eliminated us from the playoffs).

I wish I was joking: Edmonton Oilers - Vegas Golden Knights - Apr 1, 2019 | NHL.com


Chiasson McDavid Kassian
Currie Draisaitl Rattie
Lucic Nuge Cave
Malone Gambardella Gagner

Klefbom Larsson
Nurse Sekera
Russell Benning

Koskinen
Stolarz

It's amazing to think that that lineup was ALSO right up against the cap. I'd say Holland is leaving us in a much stronger position than he inherited, frustrating as it sometimes feels.

Hyman, Kane, Henrique, Foegele, McLeod, Perry are MILES better than any of the non-core guys in that lineup. I'd take Holloway, Brown, Janmark and Ryan over most of those guys too.

 

[Travis093]

When Holland arrived he inherited this lineup (as per our game vs Vegas that April which eliminated us from the playoffs).

I wish I was joking: Edmonton Oilers - Vegas Golden Knights - Apr 1, 2019 | NHL.com


Chiasson McDavid Kassian
Currie Draisaitl Rattie
Lucic Nuge Cave
Malone Gambardella Gagner

Klefbom Larsson
Nurse Sekera
Russell Benning

Koskinen
Stolarz

It's amazing to think that that lineup was ALSO right up against the cap. I'd say Holland is leaving us in a much stronger position than he inherited, frustrating as it sometimes feels.

Hyman, Kane, Henrique, Foegele, McLeod, Perry are MILES better than any of the non-core guys in that lineup. I'd take Holloway, Brown, Janmark and Ryan over most of those guys too.

that d core doesnt look too shabby tho...

 

[SupremeTeam16]

that d core doesnt look too shabby tho...

And then in the next two off seasons he lost both of those guys on the top pair through no fault of his own.

 

[bone]

f***it. I'll do another:

Vegas Golden Knights 2022-23 roster and scoring statistics at hockeydb.com

The roster, scoring and goaltender statistics for the 2022-23 Vegas Golden Knights playing in the NHL.

www.hockeydb.com

Stanley Cup winning Las Vegas Golden Knights had 14 forwards who paced for 10+ goals.

The notable Forward who didn't pace for 10 was Keegan Kolesar who is under contract until next year. Unless he can break out next season my guess is Vegas boots him when his contract is up, or trades him away.

Fair approach, there are obviously teams that are able to ice 12+ 10 goal scorers. Most likely though they'd have a cheaper top 2 or 3 forwards (Pasta was below $7M last year which certainly helped, Vegas is a great example though).

The point is that it is that most teams don't, though it's interesting you don't mention how Edmonton last year also had 12 and that the only 3 regulars that aren't at that mark this year for Edmonton were there in their last full season. Post-deadline they also have 11 that are on pace for that mark (once Sam comes back for the playoffs).

Now I'm not suggesting Edmonton should aim to have 3 players playing everyday that won't reach 10 like the case was most of this year, but I'm comfortable saying that they don't need all of their bottom 6ers to produce at that level when they typically get way higher production than any other team out of their top 4-5 players. It's equally important they have a couple guys that are really good at stifling the oppositions offense.

All that said, I'm fine moving on from most of these guys that didn't hit that bar this year anyways.

 

[Drivesaitl]

289 Forwards scored 10 or more goals last year. 32 teams x 12 forwards = 384. So there's roughly 100 players that won't meet that bar. Roughly 3 per team on average.

In other words, 4th liners aren't expected to score 10 goals.

Or it means a lot of teams in a cap era have junk 4th line players that are more fill than anything. Been extablished in any cap based league that eventually the top talent takes more of that pie and that teams end up paying whatever league minimum for whatever junk they can find. The mere presence of players like Khaira in the NHl indicate this. @Perfect_Drug was bang on.

If you can't knock in 10 goals through an 82 game season chances are you're getting outscored.

 

[bone]

And then in the next two off seasons he lost both of those guys on the top pair through no fault of his own.

And a third that was already a shell of himself and had to be bought out.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

And a third that was already a shell of himself and had to be bought out.

As a whole I think Holland has done a great job building the roster. He’s had some signing misses in Campbell and Kassian but nobody bats a thousand. While Nurse is overpaid by 1-1.5M, I think his strategy with Nurse was greatly impacted by Klefbom unexpectedly retiring and then the covid season.

 

[bone]

As a whole I think Holland has done a great job building the roster. He’s had some signing misses in Campbell and Kassian but nobody bats a thousand. While Nurse is overpaid by 1-1.5M, I think his strategy with Nurse was greatly impacted by Klefbom unexpectedly retiring and then the covid season.

Unfortunately I still think one of the biggest reason for the Nurse overpay was the Kassian blunder which didn't leave enough room to lock up Nurse long term earlier then Chicago f***ed up the market with the Jones overpay. Sign Nurse that year for $7Mx8, I doubt people are as mad about him.

 

[La Bamba]

That's Holland's gift that keeps on giving. At least we aren't paying any more salary now (cap space) for the guy we traded for him for.

You mean Chiarelli's gift lol

Holland turned a massive turd into a smaller turd

 

[Stoneman89]

You mean Chiarelli's gift lol

Holland turned a massive turd into a smaller turd

It was a combo meal - Chia and then Holland. Holland tried to turn it into something useful, but that really only worked for a year and now we're still feeling the echoes.