.500 - 20 games in, 9-9-2

[truck]

Point pace if anyone is curious

Player | Games | Goals | Assists | Points
Little | 82 | 45 | 29 | 74
Ladd | 82 | 21 | 49 | 71
Kane | 80 | 27 | 22 | 59
Byfuglien | 82 | 4 | 45 | 49
Wheeler | 82 | 21 | 29 | 50
Joker | 82 | 12 | 29 | 41
Frolik | 82 | 16 | 25 | 41
Gooch | 81 | 17 | 21 | 38
Enstrom | 82 | 8 | 25 | 33
Clitty | 78 | 10 | 20 | 30
Bright Eyes | 4 | 16 | 20

Basically, except for Ladd and Little everyone needs to step up their offensive game.

I said going into the season that Schief and Olli would need to combine for 75+ points for this team to make the playoffs. They definitely need to pick things up to get there.

Frolik is scoring far more than I thought he would - this is a pleasant surprise.

 

[JSR84]

Point pace if anyone is curious

Player | Games | Goals | Assists | Points
Little | 82 | 45 | 29 | 74
Ladd | 82 | 21 | 49 | 71
Kane | 80 | 27 | 22 | 59
Byfuglien | 82 | 4 | 45 | 49
Wheeler | 82 | 21 | 29 | 50
Joker | 82 | 12 | 29 | 41
Frolik | 82 | 16 | 25 | 41
Gooch | 81 | 17 | 21 | 38
Enstrom | 82 | 8 | 25 | 33
Clitty | 78 | 10 | 20 | 30
Bright Eyes | 4 | 16 | 20

Basically, except for Ladd and Little everyone needs to step up their offensive game.

-Wheeler will step it up, he's a slow starter, I'm pretty sure we've gone through this the last 2 years.
-Kane, I'm not worried about, he's had his legs and he's getting chances. I think the crackdown on dump in interference has helped Kane, he just need to finish.
-Frolik, he only had 10 points in 45 games last year with Chi Town, but he was in a limited roll, this is kind of a "feeling it out" year for him. I think he is capable of 60 points but it may not come this year. His line has shown flashes.
-Gooch is a bit of an odd ball, he has had success in the past however, he may just be settling into a new roll. Still, I would be upset with less than 50 from him.
-Buff, he's made some awful decisions this year, he needs to clean up his defensive zone game, and make better decisions on the breakout. He's an offensive defenseman, but sometimes he just needs to make the safe play near his blue line. Every time he makes a breakout pass I close my eyes! But if he carries the puck, we're usually safe.
-Scheifele is still finding his way, he needs to find some more strength on his skates and confidence.
-Joker is old as *******, if he hits 41 points I'll be happy.
-Bright eyes is going to be a solid defenseman, but he's only 19, there are not many 19 year olds that make the show. We'll have to be patient with him!

 

[Guerzy]

Point pace if anyone is curious

Player | Games | Goals | Assists | Points
Little | 82 | 45 | 29 | 74
Ladd | 82 | 21 | 49 | 71
Kane | 80 | 27 | 22 | 59
Byfuglien | 82 | 4 | 45 | 49
Wheeler | 82 | 21 | 29 | 50
Joker | 82 | 12 | 29 | 41
Frolik | 82 | 16 | 25 | 41
Gooch | 81 | 17 | 21 | 38
Enstrom | 82 | 8 | 25 | 33
Clitty | 78 | 10 | 20 | 30
Bright Eyes | 4 | 16 | 20

Basically, except for Ladd and Little everyone needs to step up their offensive game.

Honestly, that's about where I would expect a lot of these guys to be projection wise.

- Little is far exceeding expectations. I've long expected him to be just a 50 point guy, give or take.

- Ladd, while the jury is still out on where his offensive game goes (70 point guy or 50-55?), so he's doing quite well. If he does hit 70 then good for him as those are some fantastic numbers for him in back-to-back seasons, though last season was shortened.

- Wheeler, could be doing better to get to his 60 point plateau, but perhaps he's a 50-60 point winger given his inconsistencies.

- Kane, on pace for his usual 30 goal mark, give or take. Would love to see him hit 35-40 goals, 65-70 points.

- Setoguchi, about as expected when you look at his career totals.

- Frolik, exceeding my expectations, though falling in line with my hopes.

- Jokinen, if he can hit 40 points i'll be happy. I had hopes he'd hit the 30-40 point column.

- Scheifele, a wild card heading in but I had hopes if he was ready and playing 2nd line that he could hit 35 points. He's adjusting.

- Byfuglien, on pace for his usual 50 points. Career high is 53.

- Enstrom, he could pick it up offensively in order to hit his 50 points, but defensively he's been reliable.

- Bogosian, would love to see Zach break out and at least be that 30-35 point guy from the back end, perhaps he still can be if he picks it up.


Truth be told, statistically, for me anyway, a lot of these guys are right in the ballpark of where I'd hope/expect them to be.

 

[Channelcat]

No, your logic is messed right up.

When calculating the ****!!!!JETS!!!!**** points percentage, its pretty simple 9-9-2 is equal to .500 of the total points available to ****!!!!THEM!!!!****. By the league standard, they're presently sitting at .500, which is really all the matters unless a tie breaker is required. Not .435 or whatever it is in your world, its probably best to stick to the stat everyone else uses… Just saying.

Yes, you are correct, and I probably should just accept the system, but it is wrong Having some games distribute 3 points and others distribute 2 is illogical.

That being said, I think most people understand why the "loser point" results in a system where .500 doesn't even put you near the playoffs when 16 of 30 teams make the playoffs....................so I will leave it alone.

 

[cheswick]

The Jets are 0.500 according to the NHL. The methodology imployed by the NHL to determine waiver wire order for example.

In an era of 3 point games, 0.500 no longer average, its below average. In theory ofcourse if every game was either won or lost cleanly 0.500 would mean average. So the degree to which 0.500 differs from the average depends on how many games go into OT.

 

[PaperRockChamp]

No I don't think so. You have to consider that 3 points were distributed in a number of those games. Yes, you can only get two points for a game, but getting clean wins assures that the other team doesn't get a point (only matters in inter-conference games). You need to look at the total points distributed.

If it's any consolation, I understood your line of thinking for this comment. Also, you meant "Intra-conference", correct?

 

[truck]

-Wheeler will step it up, he's a slow starter, I'm pretty sure we've gone through this the last 2 years.
-Kane, I'm not worried about, he's had his legs and he's getting chances. I think the crackdown on dump in interference has helped Kane, he just need to finish.
-Frolik, he only had 10 points in 45 games last year with Chi Town, but he was in a limited roll, this is kind of a "feeling it out" year for him. I think he is capable of 60 points but it may not come this year. His line has shown flashes.
-Gooch is a bit of an odd ball, he has had success in the past however, he may just be settling into a new roll. Still, I would be upset with anything less than 60 from him.
-Buff, he's made some awful decisions this year, he needs to clean up his defensive zone game, and make better decisions on the breakout. He's an offensive defenseman, but sometimes he just needs to make the safe play near his blue line. Every time he makes a breakout pass I close my eyes! But if he carries the puck, we're usually safe.
-Scheifele is still finding his way, he needs to find some more strength on his skates and confidence.
-Joker is old as *******, if he hits 41 points I'll be happy.
-Bright eyes is going to be a solid defenseman, but he's only 19, there are not many 19 year olds that make the show. We'll have to be patient with him!

Setoguchi's career high point total is 65 and he has put up 36 in two separate seasons since then. He bounced back to a 46 point point last season. 60 is far from realistic. Anything north of 40 is decent production from him.

As for the others:

You are probably right about Wheeler.

I suspect Ladd and Little will slow down a bit.

Kane will probably kick around the 30/30 pace.

50 ish is solid for Byfuglien.

Toby may pick it up a little.

No clue what we will get from Scheif, Olli or Frolik.

 

[JSR84]

Setoguchi's career high point total is 65 and he has put up 36 in two separate seasons since then. He bounced back to a 46 point point last season. 60 is far from realistic. Anything north of 40 is decent production from him.

As for the others:

You are probably right about Wheeler.

I suspect Ladd and Little will slow down a bit.

Kane will probably kick around the 30/30 pace.

50 ish is solid for Byfuglien.

Toby may pick it up a little.

No clue what we will get from Scheif, Olli or Frolik.

I meant to put 50 ooops.

 

[Tarks]

Last year we had 21 points after 20 games but we are a better team this year, I don't have any doubt about that. Our schedule this year has been extremely tough so far compared to last year, 20 games in.

Let me throw a question out to everyone. What Jet players are playing above their heads right now? I can only think of 1 player and that's maybe Little. No one would have predicted 11 goals at this point.

We should get better as the year goes on.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

.500 to me means you win half your games. Loosing in a SO/OT is still a loss

 

[wpgsilver]

.500 to me means you win half your games. Loosing in a SO/OT is still a loss

.500 to me can refer to points gained. We have 20 of 40 potential points.

 

[Andy6]

Last year we had 21 points after 20 games but we are a better team this year, I don't have any doubt about that. Our schedule this year has been extremely tough so far compared to last year, 20 games in.

Let me throw a question out to everyone. What Jet players are playing above their heads right now? I can only think of 1 player and that's maybe Little. No one would have predicted 11 goals at this point.

We should get better as the year goes on.

I don't know about Little. His goals have been skill goals. Not an unusual amount of luck involved. Increased attention from opponents could slow him down, but to me he looks like he's playing at a sustainable level.

I don't think anyone's above his head, really. Lots of players could realistically be expected to improve.

 

[jiho]

If you only count up to the end of regulation and ignore OT or shoot out results we are 6-8-6 or a .450 win percentage. I expected the Jets to compete for a playoff spot. Our start makes it very unlikely we will make the playoffs. However, the last number of games I have seen improvement in our defensive play (my biggest concern). It actually looks like we know what we are doing. If they can keep this level of play going, I can see hope for this team. Any regression in the next little while and Noel should be canned.

 

[Bartho]

If you only count the games they've won, the Jets are 1.000

 

[Skidooboy]

I really don't care about the #s, I care about the standings.

In a thread a while ago I said I'd be worried about our chances if the jets weren't n contention for a playoff spot after 20 games.

Here we are 20 games within a couple of wins of a playoff spot. The Jets have a small streak going and lots of time left in the season to improve. I'd be happier if they were third in the division, but id say I'm more anxious than morbid about our chances.

Win loose or draw the jets found ways to keep close in those games. I like that. bounces, steals and flukes are fine by me as well. It's more important that the jets are able to keep close and play some pretty fun hockey most nights. if they get hot and pull off a big streak of wins lets say five or six, they could make a wildcard easily.

Any more than that is wishful thinking, TNSE is in year 3 of what I bet was a 5-10 year plan to hopefully win a cup\competitive playoff team. In reality it's more like year two. Last year, with no real camp, a rushed and hectic season, etc. , it was probably as unsettling as year 1 and maybe even caused a setback for a team already reeling from the crazy once in a lifetime experience of season 1. Now we get a new conference even! crazy!

I think the jets are better this year. I'm worried, I'm not "Tank 'em all and go for the first overall" mode yet.

 

[ps241]

I said going into the season that Schief and Olli would need to combine for 75+ points for this team to make the playoffs. They definitely need to pick things up to get there.

Frolik is scoring far more than I thought he would - this is a pleasant surprise.

My expectations are that Mark's scoring chances and results will be better in the 2nd half of the season. Just watching him play night in night out he "appears" to be getting more comfortable. I am calling for him to get 20 points in the last 41 games

It will be hard for Fro or Little to keep up their pace.

Bogosian is a streak scorer and somehow he will find his way to 30 points if he stays healthy.

Ditto for Kane.....he tends to score in bunches as well so I am thinking he battles towards 30 goals right to the last game again.

I just want Toby to make it to game 82 healthy.....his points will come. Our miserable PP production is costing him right now.

Happy with the bounce back year of Jokinen.

Wheels seemed to lose some mojo being split up from LL for so long.....I am expecting his pace to improve a bit as the year goes on and he plays with his usual suspects.

It would be nice to see Seto improve his pace

Clitty being on pace for 30 points is a pleasant surprise but not shocking. playing with Buff doesn't hurt but Clitty seems to have good O instincts and a decent shot.


The thing I will be keeping my eye on is if Halischuk can make his move and challenge for his career high in points 27, if bright eyes can make his move to 30 points by picking it up in the 2nd half, and Fro can stay north of 35 I think we could make life tough on some teams above us. Those results would put them at elite 3rd line scoring levels and we would have solved our secondary scoring challenges. They do look dangerous together. Probably not doable for a 3rd line but dare to dream

 

[Whileee]

From the perspective of standings a team's record should be based on the percentage of all points earned by teams that the Jets earned.

On average, about 12% of NHL games are 3-point games. That means that strictly speaking a ".500" record from a points perspective means earning an average of 1.06 points per game. After 20 games, that would mean just over 21 points (21.2, to be precise). Over an 82 game schedule, on average earning half of the points would work out to about 87 points.

 

[KingBogo]

If you only count up to the end of regulation and ignore OT or shoot out results we are 6-8-6 or a .450 win percentage. I expected the Jets to compete for a playoff spot. Our start makes it very unlikely we will make the playoffs. However, the last number of games I have seen improvement in our defensive play (my biggest concern). It actually looks like we know what we are doing. If they can keep this level of play going, I can see hope for this team. Any regression in the next little while and Noel should be canned.

Personally I disagree with this line of thinking. Most teams go through hot and cold streaks throughout the season. We got off to a bit of a shaky start with some key players struggling, playing in a new division/conference and still pulled ourselves up to 500 at the quarter pole. We currently stand 4 points out of a playoff spot with 3/4 of a season to play. We are just starting to get the type of goaltending that can steal games, our defense is settling down, most of our top players are starting to produce and we are seeing the promise of secondary scoring.

If we go 6 points in 5 games as per the other thread that will put us at approx 90 points heading into the final week of the season. I still believe 95 points gets us in. IMO there is nothing magical about making the playoffs. I believe this team has the talent, its just a matter of bringing night after night.

 

[Howard Chuck]

If you only count the games they've won, the Jets are 1.000

 

[Howard Chuck]

Point pace if anyone is curious

Player | Games | Goals | Assists | Points
Little | 82 | 45 | 29 | 74
Ladd | 82 | 21 | 49 | 71
Kane | 80 | 27 | 22 | 59
Byfuglien | 82 | 4 | 45 | 49
Wheeler | 82 | 21 | 29 | 50
Joker | 82 | 12 | 29 | 41
Frolik | 82 | 16 | 25 | 41
Gooch | 81 | 17 | 21 | 38
Enstrom | 82 | 8 | 25 | 33
Clitty | 78 | 10 | 20 | 30
Bright Eyes | 82 | 4 | 16 | 20

Basically, except for Ladd and Little everyone needs to step up their offensive game.

We need this for goals by committee!

Dale Hawerchuk: 53
Paul MacLean: 41
Laurie Boschman: 32
Brian Mullen: 32
Doug Smail: 31
Thomas Steen: 30

 

[truck]

I don't know about Little. His goals have been skill goals. Not an unusual amount of luck involved. Increased attention from opponents could slow him down, but to me he looks like he's playing at a sustainable level.

I don't think anyone's above his head, really. Lots of players could realistically be expected to improve.

If he sustains it (he won't) Little's shooting percentage would be the second highest single season total of any active player (minimum 10 goals scored).

http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...l=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=shot_pct

Skill goals or not, so much of what they do is impacted by luck - perhaps as much as 50% luck over small sample sizes:

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/5/24/1482659/a-tale-of-two-talents-one-true-and

 

[Romang67]

If he sustains it (he won't) Little's shooting percentage would be the second highest single season total of any active player (minimum 10 goals scored).

http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...l=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=shot_pct

Skill goals or not, so much of what they do is impacted by luck - perhaps as much as 50% luck over small sample sizes:

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/5/24/1482659/a-tale-of-two-talents-one-true-and

What does the shot % look like for the entire line? I'm working, so I can't check it out, but it doesn't seem TOO out of reach to hope for that line to get ~80 goal, even though it won't be mainly from Little scoring 45 goals.

 

[truck]

I really don't care about the #s, I care about the standings.

The standings are numbers!

My expectations are that Mark's scoring chances and results will be better in the 2nd half of the season. Just watching him play night in night out he "appears" to be getting more comfortable. I am calling for him to get 20 points in the last 41 games

Will be interesting to watch. Many rookies slow as the season progresses - it really is anybody's guess.

 

[truck]

What does the shot % look like for the entire line? I'm working, so I can't check it out, but it doesn't seem TOO out of reach to hope for that line to get ~80 goal, even though it won't be mainly from Little scoring 45 goals.

Little's on ice shooting % is 11.61% which is a little high - but not crazy high.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Will be interesting to watch. Many rookies slow as the season progresses - it really is anybody's guess.

I don't think Mark is a normal rookie.

Most rookies are given easy zone starts and competition and aren't asked to be defensively responsible. They're basically told to go out there and get as many points as possible.

Mark has been ushered into a defensive role so I'm hoping he doesn't hit that wall.