GDT: #48 Avalanche @ Sharks, 7PM Pacific, NBCSN, SNE, SNO, SNW, KFOX 98.5

[hockeey]

I can't help but think that Hertl's gonna be a monster in the future after watching him over the whole season and especially over the last month. Really dunno how much benefit he gets from playing with Thornton but dude's got legit talent.

He's gotten way faster too. One of the faster sharks and his stride looks soooo much smoother

 

[stator]

He's gotten way faster too. One of the faster sharks and his stride looks soooo much smoother

I've been telling you guys that. This is his breakout year, and I guess, it does not hurt that it's also his 1st RFA year as well.

The other guy that is looking impressive is Tierney. I foresee the centers of the lines being Hertl, Couture, and Tienery for 1st through 3rd after the Thornton/Marleau era. The wild card there is Couture to whether he will be used as a center or winger. Couture, imo, is the Sharks best 2-way forward.

If Donksoi and Goldobin can develop scoring capability like Marleau in his prime, then the Sharks are well on their way to rebuilding. The issue will be defense still, as DW did some short term patching. If Mirco does not develop into a top 4 defenseman, it will hurt a bit, as that would be a wasted 1st round pick.


With the Win over the Avs last night, two things happened... Sharks have a legitimate wild card playoff position, not just a seeded position; and they will very likely have the league's best Last 10 record during the All-Star break.

ETA: Sharks will, the only two teams that are close in total points from last 10 games that play today are Tampa and Washington. Tampa's oldest game on their L10 is a win, so they cannot improve. Washington's oldest game is a loss, but they will still be left with a regulation loss and an OT loss which gives the Sharks an edge of one point. Congrats to the Sharks who've battled back spectacularly this month.

 

[CrypTic]

I've been telling you guys that. This is his breakout year, and I guess, it does not hurt that it's also his 1st RFA year as well.

The other guy that is looking impressive is Tierney. I foresee the centers of the lines being Hertl, Couture, and Tienery for 1st through 3rd after the Thornton/Marleau era. The wild card there is Couture to whether he will be used as a center or winger. Couture, imo, is the Sharks best 2-way forward.

If Donksoi and Goldobin can develop scoring capability like Marleau in his prime, then the Sharks are well on their way to rebuilding. The issue will be defense still, as DW did some short term patching. If Mirco does not develop into a top 4 defenseman, it will hurt a bit, as that would be a wasted 1st round pick.

With the Win over the Avs last night, two things happened... Sharks have a legitimate wild card playoff position, not just a seeded position; and they will very likely have the league's best Last 10 record during the All-Star break.

I agree about Tierney and Hertl. Tierney has looked good since being sent down to the AHL.

I don't understand the bolded. Can you explain?

One thing I don't like going into the AS break is that Anaheim has pulled ahead of Arizona for the first time this season. (.5425 vs .5408). They're still very close but this is the first time that Anaheim has been ahead of Arizona or in a playoff position (per point percentage) this season. Anaheim has been climbing for quite a while and I'd rather not play them in the playoffs.

On the positive side, SJ has more cleanly pulled ahead of Minnesota and is tied with TB for #10 in point percentage. MN and SJ were near each other and going back and forth for a while (once MN started losing more often and SJ started winning) but it's now .5833 (SJ) vs .5612. Minnesota is followed closely by Nashville (.55), Anaheim (.5425), and Arizona (.541).

 

[Led Zappa]

I agree about Tierney and Hertl. Tierney has looked good since being sent down to the AHL.

I don't understand the bolded. Can you explain?

One thing I don't like going into the AS break is that Anaheim has pulled ahead of Arizona for the first time this season. (.5425 vs .5408). They're still very close but this is the first time that Anaheim has been ahead of Arizona or in a playoff position (per point percentage) this season. Anaheim has been climbing for quite a while and I'd rather not play them in the playoffs.

It means we could be 8th in the conference and still miss the PO's if we didn't come in 3rd or better in our division. I haven't been keeping track of that, so not sure when it changed.

One thing that is notable is that last year it took .590 to make the PO's. We went above that to .604 for the first time since Nov. 28th.

 

[do0glas]

I agree about Tierney and Hertl. Tierney has looked good since being sent down to the AHL.

I don't understand the bolded. Can you explain?

One thing I don't like going into the AS break is that Anaheim has pulled ahead of Arizona for the first time this season. (.5425 vs .5408). They're still very close but this is the first time that Anaheim has been ahead of Arizona or in a playoff position (per point percentage) this season. Anaheim has been climbing for quite a while and I'd rather not play them in the playoffs.

On the positive side, SJ has more cleanly pulled ahead of Minnesota and is tied with TB for #10 in point percentage. MN and SJ were near each other and going back and forth for a while (once MN started losing more often and SJ started winning) but it's now .5833 (SJ) vs .5612. Minnesota is followed closely by Nashville (.55), Anaheim (.5425), and Arizona (.541).

He's saying that we have enough points now that we're we to fall out of the pacific top three we could battle the central teams for the extra playoff spot.

 

[CrypTic]

It means we could be 8th in the conference and still miss the PO's if we didn't come in 3rd or better in our division. I haven't been keeping track of that, so not sure when it changed.

One thing that is notable is that last year it took .590 to make the PO's. We went above that to .604 for the first time since Nov. 28th.

He's saying that we have enough points now that we're we to fall out of the pacific top three we could battle the central teams for the extra playoff spot.

Thanks for clearing that up. I don't pay much attention to the official standings bc they're so heavily influenced by number of games played. We've been in a wild card position (i.e., ahead of MN or NSH, and ahead of CO) for a pretty long time if you look at point percentage. It's good to know that we're ahead in the official standings too.

ETA:

LZ, that's an interesting stat. It sounds like you're tracking it more closely than I am bc I watch the standings regularly but go by memory for how we're doing. E.g., I know that we've been ahead of Nashville and CO for quite a while but not for how long.

Where do you get your stats bc the .604 is different than the .5833 I'm getting from NHL.com?

 

[corbanSOG]

With the Win over the Avs last night, two things happened... Sharks have a legitimate wild card playoff position, not just a seeded position; and they will very likely have the league's best Last 10 record during the All-Star break.

ETA: Sharks will, the only two teams that are close in total points from last 10 games that play today are Tampa and Washington. Tampa's oldest game on their L10 is a win, so they cannot improve. Washington's oldest game is a loss, but they will still be left with a regulation loss and an OT loss which gives the Sharks an edge of one point. Congrats to the Sharks who've battled back spectacularly this month.[/SIZE]

It's also huge that over this 10-game streak, the Sharks have won 5 home games and improved their home record to 10-12-2. If the Sharks had sucked just a little less at home earlier this season, they could very well be ahead of the Kings at this point.

 

[Sideshow Raheem]

FWIW we now have a 94.2% chance of making the playoffs according to SportsClubStats (thanks, Pacific Division!). Only five teams (WSH, CHI, DAL, LA, FLA) currently have a better chance of making it.

The bad news is that same site also has the Ducks as our most likely (30%) playoff opponent.

 

[LadyStanley]

Former SJSU goalie Martin Moody, was on call as emergency back up for Avs last night.

 

[Jwec]

I don't care much which team we are going to face at the playoffs. If we want to win the Cup we have to win the best teams of the league. Of course it would be bit easier if we would win for example Arizona or Vancouver in 5 games at the first round and then face Wild what surprised and beat the Kings on 7. Wild is tired and they have some key players injured and we could beat them also at 5 games. Then we face the Stars whom we beat on six games. So of course that is easier way to the finals than for example going through Anaheim, LA and Chicago but I think if we want to win the cup we should be able to beat every team of the league on seven game series.

And I really liked that Colorado game. Great effort and our first line dominated Avs players (Well our first line has dominated this whole month). I also love our current center depth and I really want us to have 3 high level centers at their own lines. No other team has as good player than Logan Couture on their third line center.

 

[Alwalys]

I don't care much which team we are going to face at the playoffs. If we want to win the Cup we have to win the best teams of the league. Of course it would be bit easier if we would win for example Arizona or Vancouver in 5 games at the first round and then face Wild what surprised and beat the Kings on 7. Wild is tired and they have some key players injured and we could beat them also at 5 games. Then we face the Stars whom we beat on six games. So of course that is easier way to the finals than for example going through Anaheim, LA and Chicago but I think if we want to win the cup we should be able to beat every team of the league on seven game series.

And I really liked that Colorado game. Great effort and our first line dominated Avs players (Well our first line has dominated this whole month). I also love our current center depth and I really want us to have 3 high level centers at their own lines. No other team has as good player than Logan Couture on their third line center.

While being the best team in the league is certainly nice, I don't think the Sharks are going to be that, but luckily that's not required to win the Cup. Sometimes a little luck DOES go a long way, many games turn on one lucky break, and most series turn on one game; two games and it's all but over.

As we have seen, facing a given team a series later can make a huge difference, a key player could go down for that team at any time.

 

[Alwalys]

btw, the 4th line with zubrus on it looked much more effective possessionwise than with brown on it.

 

[OffSydes]

btw, the 4th line with zubrus on it looked much more effective possessionwise than with brown on it.

I'm shocked

 

[CrypTic]

I don't care much which team we are going to face at the playoffs. If we want to win the Cup we have to win the best teams of the league. Of course it would be bit easier if we would win for example Arizona or Vancouver in 5 games at the first round and then face Wild what surprised and beat the Kings on 7. Wild is tired and they have some key players injured and we could beat them also at 5 games. Then we face the Stars whom we beat on six games. So of course that is easier way to the finals than for example going through Anaheim, LA and Chicago but I think if we want to win the cup we should be able to beat every team of the league on seven game series.

And I really liked that Colorado game. Great effort and our first line dominated Avs players (Well our first line has dominated this whole month). I also love our current center depth and I really want us to have 3 high level centers at their own lines. No other team has as good player than Logan Couture on their third line center.

I'm mostly concerned with injuries. I'd rather play a shorter, less physical series. Part of that is how well we match up to the various teams since if it's a good match up for us, we'll probably beat them more quickly.

For now, I'm happy that we are (relatively) comfortably in a playoff spot. You can't control the match-ups but I really hope that the Sharks can avoid any big injuries leading up to or in the playoffs.

 

[Jwec]

While being the best team in the league is certainly nice, I don't think the Sharks are going to be that, but luckily that's not required to win the Cup. Sometimes a little luck DOES go a long way, many games turn on one lucky break, and most series turn on one game; two games and it's all but over.

As we have seen, facing a given team a series later can make a huge difference, a key player could go down for that team at any time.

I agree. You don't have to be the best team in the league to win the Cup. But you need to have the ability to beat every team in the league if you want to win the cup.

I have said to my friends that you have a chance to win the cup if that your team is enough skilled, has enough healthy roster and some luck. (Well of course there is other things also but these are the most important ones). You don't have to be the best team of the league but you need those 3 things to win it. And I think Sharks have enough skill on their lineup. Do we have enough luck and healthy roster is things we can't know yet.

 

[hohosaregood]

I agree. You don't have to be the best team in the league to win the Cup. But you need to have the ability to beat every team in the league if you want to win the cup.

I have said to my friends that you have a chance to win the cup if that your team is enough skilled, has enough healthy roster and some luck. (Well of course there is other things also but these are the most important ones). You don't have to be the best team of the league but you need those 3 things to win it. And I think Sharks have enough skill on their lineup. Do we have enough luck and healthy roster is things we can't know yet.

Kind of the story of PDB's NJ Devils that one year. They kinda lost due to the injuries to Kovy and Parise but that team went way farther than they should've ever gotten.

 

[Jwec]

I'm mostly concerned with injuries. I'd rather play a shorter, less physical series. Part of that is how well we match up to the various teams since if it's a good match up for us, we'll probably beat them more quickly.

For now, I'm happy that we are (relatively) comfortably in a playoff spot. You can't control the match-ups but I really hope that the Sharks can avoid any big injuries leading up to or in the playoffs.

Yeah. Physical seven game series has more risk that some of our key player is going have an injury. But if we want to win the cup our team has to be ready to play these.

Kind of the story of PDB's NJ Devils that one year. They kinda lost due to the injuries to Kovy and Parise but that team went way farther than they should've ever gotten.

Exactly! And there is our chance. We have same coach and more talented roster than Devils had that one year. We need luck and healthy roster. If we are going to have these things we have a chance to win it all.

 

[stator]

I don't understand the bolded. Can you explain?

Sure, if the Sharks did not have a seeded playoff position, either 1st to 3rd place, they would have a wildcard seed. Currently the two wildcard teams are Wild and Avs at 55 points, while the Sharks have 56.

This was a rub where other than the Kings, no other team in the Pacific would qualify as a wildcard, including the 2nd and 3rd place teams. People in HFboards loved pointing that out awhile ago when talking about how much the division sucked.

But I and some others posted that the division has come alive this month. I think the Kings can be caught, and I do expect the Ducks to be competitive. I predicted that the west and our division will be a slugfest, and it's looking like that will be the case in March/April.

 

[Bleedred]

btw, the 4th line with zubrus on it looked much more effective possessionwise than with brown on it.

I really don't like Zubrus anymore at this point in his career. But all I have to do is think of Mike Brown, and I realize he's not quite THAT bad.

 

[hohosaregood]

I really don't like Zubrus anymore at this point in his career. But all I have to do is think of Mike Brown, and I realize he's not quite THAT bad.

Ah, the age old mantra: "there's always someone worse."

 

[CrypTic]

Sure, if the Sharks did not have a seeded playoff position, either 1st to 3rd place, they would have a wildcard seed. Currently the two wildcard teams are Wild and Avs at 55 points, while the Sharks have 56.

This was a rub where other than the Kings, no other team in the Pacific would qualify as a wildcard, including the 2nd and 3rd place teams. People in HFboards loved pointing that out awhile ago when talking about how much the division sucked.

But I and some others posted that the division has come alive this month. I think the Kings can be caught, and I do expect the Ducks to be competitive. I predicted that the west and our division will be a slugfest, and it's looking like that will be the case in March/April.

Thanks for explaining. I rarely take ppl who project who makes the playoffs based on a really small sample size (e.g., <20 games) seriously. Same for anyone who uses the actual standings as opposed to point percentage at this stage. (It can make sense if you're taking point percentage, future match ups, and actual standings into account but that typically only happens near the end of the season.)

I understand the context now. It is good to not have to read that type of thing regularly on the main board.

 

[SactoShark]

He's gotten way faster too. One of the faster sharks and his stride looks soooo much smoother

Vlasic, Pavelski, Couture, and Braun are all night and day better skaters than when they came into the league. Sharks have done a great job fostering and improving those talents.

Ah, the age old mantra: "there's always someone worse."

"Things are never so bad they can't be made worse."