News Article: 30 thoughts: Maurice extension possible + systems + Buff

[ps241]

Which is my concern.

With Maurice behind the bench the jets have had better goaltending then they've had all year.

I begin with the assumption this coincidence, because more work has been put into determining wether or not it would be coincidence or an effect by someone other then myself and they determined it to be as such.

I view the buff at forward situation, and our current winning streak like this:

if your given two options, one gives you 2/3 odds of winning a hundred dollars, and one gives 1/2 odds of winning a hundred dollars, and you keep taking the 1/2 option and winning, does it mean your more likely to win on 1/2 as opposed to 2/3?

No it just means you HAVE been winning despite worse odds.. Choosing the 2/3 option is going to get you more money, no matter how much success you've had picking 1/2 over a long enough sample. Furthermore, even if your winning in a low sample on the 1/2, it has nothing to do with what YOU are doing, and you have no control over it.

now... the teams underlying numbers have improved under Maurice. A part of which includes having buff on forward.

Without WOWY numbers or anyhing like that its hard for me to say empirically that we'd be doing better with buff at D, but historically this has been the case (dramatically so) and so it seems a leap to assume the opposite.

Folks will point to shot quality, etc etc etc with buff, but the problem i have with that is case-and-point bogo and trouba over these last few games.

They've given upa tonne of "buff esq" mistakes/turnovers/breakaways, but we've had good enough goal-tending to compensate. It isn't that there turnovers in the slot are worse, or that they hustle more when they get caught at center ice, it's that our goaltender makes the save.

It's easier for a goaltender to stop every dzone turn-over-turned-opportunity over a 9 game stretch then it is over the past 150+ games buff has played as a jet.

If those continue to happen at the rate they are they'll eventually look no different then buff.


short story: Right result doesn't justify a wrong decision.

good post and although your logic is sound I would say winning justifies the Buff decision because the Jets are achieving the desired end result inside the dynamics of a team sport which has so many moving parts that it is hard to pinpoint why a team is winning. I get that currently it appears improved goaltending is the cause but you have to ride it out as is until results on the ground force change IMHO.

Who's to say they aren't giving this a good long look saying how will we fair next season after we trade Buff? Since we are going there anyways why not get a jump on it by letting our top 2 young RHD play the heavy minutes.

Either way in this case I do believe the end justifies the means if your team is winning.

 

[Grind]

I think better goaltending comes from giving up less quality scoring chances especially ones after the first save which is something the Maurice Jets are getting very good at.

I think if things continue the way they are Buff becomes expendable in the off season. I think his value would be very high in the off season and he could be moved for a few pieces. Maybe you move him to Florida for Kulikov and Matthais in the off season.

I guess my response and continued hesitancy to get-on-board-the-train so to speak is two fold.

1. we need a bigger sample to really say this is happening and that less quality scoring chances are happening against. I wouldn't mind see a heat map of %scoring chances against the jets under pomo vs noel. Would be interesting if there's a significant difference and B) is that difference sustainable.

2.IF we assume this is true, is it the changing of players or the changing of the system that has caused this result? I can see a new system in play, and I'm inclined to say the system is more responsible for the improvement then the change in players. What this essentially means is though we may have increased our performance under PoMo's system with the Bogo-Enstrom pairing, there's a good chance we would increase it further by reuniting Buff and Toby.


of course none of this accounts for the logistical issues of having 3 top 4 RHD and i still think buff gets traded in the offseason

 

[Sweech]

Trouba just seems luckier because he's better at recovering when he makes a mistake or risky play.

I don't even think it's that. He just seems to be getting saves directly after the giveaway, which Buff was not getting.

[NHL]2013020846-27-h[/NHL]

Things like that would have been bulging twine.

 

[Grind]

good post and although your logic is sound I would say winning justifies the Buff decision because the Jets are achieving the desired end result inside the dynamics of a team sport which has so many moving parts that it is hard to pinpoint why a team is winning. I get that currently it appears improved goaltending is the cause but you have to ride it out as is until results on the ground force change IMHO.

Who's to say they aren't giving this a good long look saying how will we fair next season after we trade Buff? Since we are going there anyways why not get a jump on it by letting our top 2 young RHD play the heavy minutes.

Either way in this case I do believe the end justifies the means if your team is winning.

This is a really good point as well. And if we're seeing an improvement with Pomo and a buffless d over Noel and buff on D, then hey, progress is progress.

I guess my big concern is how much faith you have in the success continuing. I have very little. This gives me the fear that we're headed for a repeat of last season.

I'm just terrified (ok that maybe to strong of a word) of heading into the deadline riding an unsustainable win streak/performance, tricking us into not selling off as many assets as we should, only to have us regress back to the reality afterwards, further compounded by an illusion of "vast" improvement under Pomo which results in another gun-shy off season as far as aquisitions and player movement is concerned.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I guess my response and continued hesitancy to get-on-board-the-train so to speak is two fold.

1. we need a bigger sample to really say this is happening and that less quality scoring chances are happening against. I wouldn't mind see a heat map of %scoring chances against the jets under pomo vs noel. Would be interesting if there's a significant difference and B) is that difference sustainable.

2.IF we assume this is true, is it the changing of players or the changing of the system that has caused this result? I can see a new system in play, and I'm inclined to say the system is more responsible for the improvement then the change in players. What this essentially means is though we may have increased our performance under PoMo's system with the Bogo-Enstrom pairing, there's a good chance we would increase it further by reuniting Buff and Toby.


of course none of this accounts for the logistical issues of having 3 top 4 RHD and i still think buff gets traded in the offseason

I think some of the changes like not having the wingers leave the zone early so the D have more outlets are having a major effect.

I would say 20 games would be a good indication of where this team could be going under Maurice. Winning helps because players buy in easier.

 

[truck]

I think better goaltending comes from giving up less quality scoring chances especially ones after the first save which is something the Maurice Jets are getting very good at.

I think if things continue the way they are Buff becomes expendable in the off season. I think his value would be very high in the off season and he could be moved for a few pieces. Maybe you move him to Florida for Kulikov and Matthais in the off season.

There are loads and loads and loads of evidence disagree with this. Time will eventually prove this to be the case here.

Ondrej has been on hot streaks before, he always follows them up with poor play. The 3 piss poor games he's already had under PoMo should be plenty telling.

This is what I said last time he got hot:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013/12/3/5166318/has-ondrej-pavelec-turned-the-corner-winnipeg-jets

 

[Flair Hay]

I think better goaltending comes from giving up less quality scoring chances especially ones after the first save which is something the Maurice Jets are getting very good at.

This. I always thought helping to stop second chances was the weakest part of Buff's game on D. He brings so much to the offense back on D, but his defensive play was hurting us. Pavelec was still giving up some shady rebounds at Carolina. But the team was boxing out properly and clearing rebounds, often just in the nick of time. Some folks may think I am being biased but I truly think the team's make up is better defensively with Buff on RW.

 

[Flair Hay]

There are loads and loads and loads of evidence disagree with this. Time will eventually prove this to be the case here.

Ondrej has been on hot streaks before, he always follows them up with poor play. The 3 piss poor games he's already had under PoMo should be plenty telling.

This is what I said last time he got hot:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013/12/3/5166318/has-ondrej-pavelec-turned-the-corner-winnipeg-jets

I believe what he's saying is we are compensating for our poor goaltending better now. By limiting certain high quality chances we were giving up more of under Noel. Not better goaltending per say, but less GA.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

I don't even think it's that. He just seems to be getting saves directly after the giveaway, which Buff was not getting.

[NHL]2013020846-27-h[/NHL]

Things like that would have been bulging twine.

Haha, fair enough. Ouch, what a terrible play! It must be hard to skate with that horse shoe up his arse.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

There are loads and loads and loads of evidence disagree with this. Time will eventually prove this to be the case here.

Ondrej has been on hot streaks before, he always follows them up with poor play. The 3 piss poor games he's already had under PoMo should be plenty telling.

This is what I said last time he got hot:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013/12/3/5166318/has-ondrej-pavelec-turned-the-corner-winnipeg-jets

I don't think we are getting better goaltending I think we are giving our goalies a better chance.

I think in order to win you have to give up less 2nd scoring chances.

 

[surixon]

This is a really good point as well. And if we're seeing an improvement with Pomo and a buffless d over Noel and buff on D, then hey, progress is progress.

I guess my big concern is how much faith you have in the success continuing. I have very little. This gives me the fear that we're headed for a repeat of last season.

I'm just terrified (ok that maybe to strong of a word) of heading into the deadline riding an unsustainable win streak/performance, tricking us into not selling off as many assets as we should, only to have us regress back to the reality afterwards, further compounded by an illusion of "vast" improvement under Pomo which results in another gun-shy off season as far as aquisitions and player movement is concerned.

I would hope our management knows now what they have and what they need. Also Maurice was brought in to ***** the current players so I still think we see some changes. My main point is that this team isn't far off, they need a goalie and they need bottom end depth. Neither should be hard to acquire given all the capsapce we have. As for selling off assets, this is a weak ddraft so I'd be fine with only selling Seto off.

 

[Sweech]

Haha, fair enough. Ouch, what a terrible play! It must be hard to skate with that horse shoe up his arse.

I love it. It's good for a rookie not to get burned on all your mistakes so it doesn't ruin his confidence.

But man oh man, he has had a horseshoe up his ass.

I don't think we are getting better goaltending I think we are giving our goalies a better chance.

I think in order to win you have to give up less 2nd scoring chances.

I'd believe that if Pavelec wasn't getting beaten by the first chance so often.

Or if "the second chance" wasn't a rebound Pavelec bounced out 10 feet into the slot.

 

[ps241]

This is a really good point as well. And if we're seeing an improvement with Pomo and a buffless d over Noel and buff on D, then hey, progress is progress.

I guess my big concern is how much faith you have in the success continuing. I have very little. This gives me the fear that we're headed for a repeat of last season.

I'm just terrified (ok that maybe to strong of a word) of heading into the deadline riding an unsustainable win streak/performance, tricking us into not selling off as many assets as we should, only to have us regress back to the reality afterwards, further compounded by an illusion of "vast" improvement under Pomo which results in another gun-shy off season as far as aquisitions and player movement is concerned.

We have found common ground Grind.

I love winning but I share your fear that it might impede us from moving assets at the deadline. This is offset somewhat by the fact it appears it may be a buyer’s market this spring if TSN's top 10 rental player list is any indication and maybe selling was always going to be an issue. At a minimum I would like to see Seto moved.

Like you I am much more concerned that we get gun shy in the off season with our older core. I would like to see at least one guy moved from that group to address our current organizational weaknesses. I heard Chevy and Zinger were working hard to make some big moves before they fired Coach Noel but the market was to tough with the Cap challenges. I think they might want to continue on with that plan in the off season and be thankful that the coaching change was the right thing to do but so was their original idea of building around the younger core.

 

[ps241]

There are loads and loads and loads of evidence disagree with this. Time will eventually prove this to be the case here.

Ondrej has been on hot streaks before, he always follows them up with poor play. The 3 piss poor games he's already had under PoMo should be plenty telling.

This is what I said last time he got hot:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013/12/3/5166318/has-ondrej-pavelec-turned-the-corner-winnipeg-jets

The nice thing is at least with PMo we have a "chance" that he will give Monty a shot when Pavs goes in the tank the next time. Perhaps PMo will ride the hot hand which Noel was never willing to do.

 

[truck]

I don't think we are getting better goaltending I think we are giving our goalies a better chance.

I think in order to win you have to give up less 2nd scoring chances.

Giving up fewer shots (and chances) is always a good idea. I am not sure the Jets found a magical formula there though.

Over the last 11 games the Jets have a better save percentage than any team in the entire league has sustained this season. If that doesn't speak to an unsustainable hot streak, I don't know what does.

In other words, under PoMo the Jets are getting "better goaltending" than any team in the NHL has this season.

Over time, this year or next Ondrej's numbers will in all likelihood flop back into the .906 range under PoMo, just like they have after every other hot streak.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I kind of hope the Jets become like the Blues after they fired Payne and brought in Hitchcock. They have been able to maintain that high level of play for a few seasons now even with what their fans consider to be sub standard goaltending.

 

[ps241]

Giving up fewer shots (and chances) is always a good idea. I am not sure the Jets found a magical formula there though.

Over the last 11 games the Jets have a better save percentage than any team in the entire league has sustained this season. If that doesn't speak to an unsustainable hot streak, I don't know what does.

In other words, under PoMo the Jets are getting "better goaltending" than any team in the NHL has this season.

Over time, this year or next Ondrej's numbers will in all likelihood flop back into the .906 range under PoMo, just like they have after every other hot streak.

Yea that is a huge concern which would explain why 9-2 or an .818 winning % is very unsustainable but now the question will become can PMo manage goalie starts and keep our goaltending save % above .915 (cough cough Monty) and if so can a structurally improved, confident team, with above league average goaltending win enough to make the playoffs (let’s say .630 win %)?

 

[surixon]

Giving up fewer shots (and chances) is always a good idea. I am not sure the Jets found a magical formula there though.

Over the last 11 games the Jets have a better save percentage than any team in the entire league has sustained this season. If that doesn't speak to an unsustainable hot streak, I don't know what does.

In other words, under PoMo the Jets are getting "better goaltending" than any team in the NHL has this season.

Over time, this year or next Ondrej's numbers will in all likelihood flop back into the .906 range under PoMo, just like they have after every other hot streak.

Its only 11 games though. While its not likely sustainable I'm sure other teams have had similar got streaks. I don'tthink anyone believes we are .800 winning percentage team. What I hope is that with this new system and coach and some bottom end roster additions in the off season, the team is able to improve to a .65 winning percentage next year.

 

[winterpeg]

I think the obvious improvement of the defensive systems would help Buff just as much as it is helping the other players.

You can say you'd be more comfortable with Bogo on the ice than Buff. Totally fair. You can even say you're more comfortable with Trouba on the ice, and I disagree, (though I expect to agree very soon) but I understand where you are coming from.

You can't really argue that he isn't an improvement on Pardy, Ellerby, Redmond, Postma, or anyone else who we would see on the third pair. Defensively AND offensively.

If you're going to use him in a 20 minutes or less capacity, use him to make the 3rd pairing a non-weakness, and give him the same PP and 4v4 time, then he's playing 20 minutes, shoring up a genuine weakness, and likely putting up more points than he is now. That's my thought.

 

[allan5oh]

Ovechkin is playing today

 

[truck]

I kind of hope the Jets become like the Blues after they fired Payne and brought in Hitchcock. They have been able to maintain that high level of play for a few seasons now even with what their fans consider to be sub standard goaltending.

Most numbers people would tell you Halak is a very very very good goaltender.

Elliot is just OK.

Both are better than Pavelec.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...omp=gt&c4val=&order_by=games_played#stats::15

 

[truck]

Its only 11 games though. While its not likely sustainable I'm sure other teams have had similar got streaks. I don'tthink anyone believes we are .800 winning percentage team. What I hope is that with this new system and coach and some bottom end roster additions in the off season, the team is able to improve to a .65 winning percentage next year.

Everybody hopes that, but I don't think it will be easy if the Jets continue to get bottom rung goaltending.

 

[CaptainChef]

I guess my response and continued hesitancy to get-on-board-the-train so to speak is two fold.

1. we need a bigger sample to really say this is happening and that less quality scoring chances are happening against. I wouldn't mind see a heat map of %scoring chances against the jets under pomo vs noel. Would be interesting if there's a significant difference and B) is that difference sustainable.

2.IF we assume this is true, is it the changing of players or the changing of the system that has caused this result? I can see a new system in play, and I'm inclined to say the system is more responsible for the improvement then the change in players. What this essentially means is though we may have increased our performance under PoMo's system with the Bogo-Enstrom pairing, there's a good chance we would increase it further by reuniting Buff and Toby.


of course none of this accounts for the logistical issues of having 3 top 4 RHD and i still think buff gets traded in the offseason

Count me as being in the "less quality scoring chances with PMo's system". Last game, despite some huge pressure from Carolina in the second half of the game, I didn't feel that Pavs had to make those huge saves that our goalies had to make to win games before. There's a noticeable difference in ease of zone exit - teams are no longer ganging up on our defence & getting easy turn-overs by doing that. Should we turn over the puck in our zone, we are not nearly scrambling all over the place trying to prevent a good scoring chance like we did before. That's been the most noticeable difference I've seen since PMo took over.

A few games ago, TSN or CBC highlighted our defensive zone coverage scheme as a moving 5-man X. That's been the big difference there I think. I'm quite sure if you looked at a map of where scoring chances are coming from now vs with Noel, there would be a very significant difference.

So, yes I think that our better defensive record under PMo is somewhat sustainable & no, I don't think it is only goalie related (they may be playing better, but the whole team's defensive coverage is just so much better).

I totally share your guys opinion that we can't stay pat at the deadline or during the summer however. I'm convinced that even if we're on the playoff bubble, we need to be sellers with any of our UFAs that we can get decent returns for.

Heres my shopping list for Chevy in the next few months:

-make 2-3 moves with UFAs at the deadline to expand our draft picks
-*buy out Pavs; replace with any backup who has a .910-.915+ save %
-bring back Burmi,
-trade Buff for a couple of quality players/prospects
-be active at the draft trading away other 3rd-4th liners that we can live without (Oli, Gooch) or finding gems to insert in our line-up like Frolic (didn't even mind him picking up Gooch last year even if it didn't work out

There's prob a couple other things that I want him to do, but that's a short list anyway

 

[CaptainChef]

This. I always thought helping to stop second chances was the weakest part of Buff's game on D. He brings so much to the offense back on D, but his defensive play was hurting us. Pavelec was still giving up some shady rebounds at Carolina. But the team was boxing out properly and clearing rebounds, often just in the nick of time. Some folks may think I am being biased but I truly think the team's make up is better defensively with Buff on RW.

Yes, I'm with you 100% there. Buff's lazy defensive attitude when there were guys waiting around to pop in a rebound really killed us. I'm seeing a lot more aggressiveness out of our defense now - guys like Stu & Bogo are physically taking guys right out of the equation. If Buff ever gets moved back to D, he'll have to really improve on that aspect of his defensive coverage.

 

[powder88]

There are loads and loads and loads of evidence disagree with this. Time will eventually prove this to be the case here.

Ondrej has been on hot streaks before, he always follows them up with poor play. The 3 piss poor games he's already had under PoMo should be plenty telling.

This is what I said last time he got hot:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013/12/3/5166318/has-ondrej-pavelec-turned-the-corner-winnipeg-jets

Actually, the bolded statement is out of date and incorrect, I believe. The challenge was always the poor quality of the NHL's tracking of shot locations, making any assessment of "shot quality" virtually impossible. In such a data void, it would have been impossible to distinguish the different value of individual shots. Therefore we are stuck using Corsi, which is worlds better than +/-, but far from perfect. I would encourage you to look up the "Shot Quality Project" on Sportsnet. While the data behind it is not publicly available, it appears that they have been tracking the precise location of thousands of shots to determine which have the highest shooting %. This allows them to make data-supported claims about the "quality" of any given shot based on its location and other characteristics (deflection, rebound, etc.).

You will be shocked to learn that shots from the slot are far more successful than those from the blueline. I have no idea if the Jets have actually improved the quality of their shots against, but to suggest that shot quality is irrelevant, based on a number of studies using contaminated data, is wrong.