Post-Game Talk: 3 in a row! 5-4 Jets

[KingBogo]

Yea I thought 27 was a really good spot to finish but the milk has spilt I will now wait for the next two major hurdles before I hit the ledge.

Lotto day
Draft day

I'm okay with the 5th or 6th spot. IMO it is a pretty accurate representation of their season. Love to win the lottery and get Matthews. But with Scheif erasing any doubt he is on his way to being a true #1 C, I'm content picking a little down and nab a stud LHD. IMO our forward group, especially when you throw Connor in the mix is very skilled, fast and still mostly a bunch of puppies with lots more growth available yet. You throw a top pairing LHD in the mix of Buff, Trouba, Myers, Toby and Morrissey now you have a top shelf D. With a real goalie this team can content one day soon IMO.

And I won a little Vcash betting on the Jets last night.

 

[ps241]

Yeah, it sucks. I've given up discussing Pavelec and Stuart, because we all know what to expect with these two, and what will realistically happen. So, just go with the ride and hope for the best.



True. I wanted a top 5 pick myself so the Jets wouldn't fall too far out of the top 7 range if **** happened like that, while still maintaining a realistic chance of winning a top 3 pick. As it is, now we won't seed any lower than 6th pre-lottery. Nothing we can do about it, like there was anything we could do in the first place.

I'm just so ****ing tired of no man's land. So tired of it. I wanted this year to be the one year we break out of thr mushy middle and actually pick a direction. I want it to be like when the Habs dove out of the playoff picture and got Galchenyuk.

I have kind of hit the wall on no mans land but I am at piece with the fact TNSE picked a direction.

Sent our best goalie to the AHL
Traded Ladd
Shut Little down
Shut MP down
shut Myers down
Shut Toby down


Chin up lets go win a lottery or laugh when a good guy falls in our lap.

 

[cbcwpg]

I have kind of hit the wall on no mans land but I am at piece with the fact TNSE picked a direction.

Sent our best goalie to the AHL
Traded Ladd
Shut Little down
Shut MP down
shut Myers down
Shut Toby down


Chin up lets go win a lottery or laugh when a good guy falls in our lap.

Speaking of those four players who all have big contracts and are out with injuries... Did they all just become trade bait? Since it looks like we can win a few games without them.

 

[CorgisPer60]

Speaking of those four players who all have big contracts and are out with injuries... Did they all just become trade bait? Since it looks like we can win a few games without them.

I really wouldn't put too much stock in garbage time wins. No need to trade off our best pieces just because.

look where no-man's land got us. a Trouba, a Connor, an Ehlers and a Scheifele. O, the Humanity!

Scheifele was seen as a reach, and you could argue that Couturier, Hamilton, and now Forsberg were the better pieces to take. Trouba was because other pieces were rated higher and haven't panned out as nicely (Reinhart, Murray), Connor was because of one GM "****ing up", and Ehlers was because of 2 GMs doing the same. I don't like putting faith in other GMs ****ing up. I would rather Chevy control who he gets to pick, and have the player be there with no worries about the player being taken beforehand.

 

[HannuJ]

I'm just so ****ing tired of no man's land. So tired of it. I wanted this year to be the one year we break out of thr mushy middle and actually pick a direction. I want it to be like when the Habs dove out of the playoff picture and got Galchenyuk.

look where no-man's land got us. a Trouba, a Connor, an Ehlers and a Scheifele. O, the Humanity!

like i said above, we'd be weeping if we finished 3rd worst and dropped to 4th via the lottery. we'd always find a reason to weep.

calgary plays the Wild and we play the Kings. so there's still hope for dropping 1 spot.

by the way, it just dawned on me that, duh, it's an 82 game schedule, not an 84 game schedule. whoops.

 

[SensibleGuy]

yeah....uuuuummmm...I'm going to go ahead and suggest that it wouldn't be very wise to put too much weight on this meaningless late-season "surge." We might want to wait and see how things go at the start of next season...

 

[YWGinYYZ]

yeah....uuuuummmm...I'm going to go ahead and suggest that it wouldn't be very wise to put too much weight on this meaningless late-season "surge." We might want to wait and see how things go at the start of next season...

That's ... sensible.

For me, I still like the underlying metrics of this team, and like how some of the rookies are playing. I feel optimism based on that. They still have to play the games, so we'll see how it turns out.

 

[Jets 31]

while it definitely isn't my job to tell people what to (not) post about, the Stuart and Pavs narrative is beyond exhausted.
it would sure be nice if posters actually had some constructive criticism on a non-bandwagon subject because heaven knows that we've talked about Stuart to death and nothing will change regarding his status until this offseason, if ever.

Sorry about *****ing about the same guy but it's very , very frustrating watching all these young guys playing really good and then watching Stuart make mistake after bone head mistake !! I wish Maurice would play Melichori on the PK instead of Stuart ... there is one good thing though , by Trouba having to play with Stuart all year , Chevy should be able to get good deal on Trouba

 

[Aavco Cup]

Lotta doom and gloom here.
Remember how the lottery works and you won't feel so bad. We're either 5th or 6th seed (only Calgary can catch us, and we can't catch Arizona). Probably 6th. That means we can take 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 8th or 9th. We have something like a 1 in 3 chance of jumping up. That'd be great. The odds of us falling down are fairly low. Ifnwe picked 9th, that would mean 3 teams with more points than us all got top 3 spots. That's pretty much impossible. We're not picking 9th. 7th could happen, but even 8th is pretty unrealistic.

1,2,3,6,7. Probably 6. From there, trading up wouldn't be too hard considering all the forward prospects we barely have room for, our Chicago 1st and next year's 1st.

We've got a lot of pieces we can play. I wanted to lose out the last 4 games too, but let's everybody chill. It was a really fun game to watch!

Highest probability is we get jumped by one team and pick 7th. Second highest is a top 3 pick.

6 seed odds of picking

1. 7.5%
2. 7.8%
3. 8.1%
4. N/A
5. N/A
6. 17.5%
7. 39.3%
8. 17.9%
9. 1.7%

 

[Jimby]

It is fun watching the Jets win. IMHO the team embracing hard work and the will to win right up to the end and not embracing an Oiler-like losing culture is far more important to the future of this team than a slightly higher draft pick.

 

[gbill2004*]

Too bad Morrissey is injured. This would have such a perfect opportunity for him to develop.

 

[surixon]

It is fun watching the Jets win. IMHO the team embracing hard work and the will to win right up to the end and not embracing an Oiler-like losing culture is far more important to the future of this team than a slightly higher draft pick.

Agreed! My biggest takeaway is that Scheifele, Wheeler and Buff have taken control of the team's leadership structure are setting expectations for next year with their play. What's more the younger players are trying to emulate it.

 

[Jimby]

Yes! Far more important to long term success. The future is brighter because of it regardless of who we draft.

Agreed! My biggest takeaway is that Scheifele, Wheeler and Buff have taken control of the team's leadership structure are setting expectations for next year with their play. What's more the younger players are trying to emulate it.

 

[Whileee]

Highest probability is we get jumped by one team and pick 7th. Second highest is a top 3 pick.

6 seed odds of picking

1. 7.5%
2. 7.8%
3. 8.1%
4. N/A
5. N/A
6. 17.5%
7. 39.3%
8. 17.9%
9. 1.7%

Probability of a top-3 pick has dropped by 3-5%, and the likelihood of drafting 6th or 7th has really increased. However, I'm not sure that a pick at #6 or #7 would be a lot different that picking at #5 this year. One of the top-3 LHD will be available, and one of the top forwards might slide down a bit. For example, if a team at #4 or #5 really loves Juolevi, we might see Juolevi and Chychrun go in the top 5 or 6, with PLD or Tkachuk sliding down to #6 or #7.

The Jets still have slightly less than a 1 in 4 chance at a top-3 pick.

 

[Shakey Rustie]

We just needed Stuart to return to the lineup to have success. The guy is a stud still and I look forward to the years ahead with him being a lock on the blue line.

 

[AlphaLackey]

Three words that he could only say once must have ripped him in apart.

"Pavelec, big save!" ??

 

[ps241]

Highest probability is we get jumped by one team and pick 7th. Second highest is a top 3 pick.

6 seed odds of picking

1. 7.5%
2. 7.8%
3. 8.1%
4. N/A
5. N/A
6. 17.5%
7. 39.3%
8. 17.9%
9. 1.7%

80% chance we are picking top 7, honestly I could see a really good asset being available at 7.

 

[heilongjetsfan]

Highest probability is we get jumped by one team and pick 7th. Second highest is a top 3 pick.

6 seed odds of picking

1. 7.5%
2. 7.8%
3. 8.1%
4. N/A
5. N/A
6. 17.5%
7. 39.3%
8. 17.9%
9. 1.7%

I knew someone was going to come along and do the math for me! Thanks homie. So a combined 40.9% chance of either moving into the top 3 or staying put. That ain't half bad, considering.

Now what if we end up in "5th?"

 

[Positive]

I wouldn't consider 6th/7th 'No Man's Land' myself. That's more like the 11-14 range.

Again, lottery hasn't happened yet, and these players haven't developed yet.

I'd recommend just chilling and for the next game, instead of

Because it's a beautiful glass. See you in October!

 

[heilongjetsfan]

80% chance we are picking top 7, honestly I could see a really good asset being available at 7.

Me too. I would say it's all but guaranteed that all of Matthews, Laine, Puljajarvi and Chychrun are gone. That means at least one of Dubois, Tkachuk, Sergachev or Juolevi would be available at 7th.
Depending on whose draft rankings you look at, any of Nylander, Keller, Gauthier, McLoed and Bean could sneak into the 5-10 range too.

If we're at 7, I'm sure at least one GM (*cough* Benning) will go off the board. Maybe one or two draft for position, and all of a sudden we're spoiled for choice even at 7th.

Can't wait for Saturday night, and the lotto after that. I have a feeling we're gonna be happy. Well, some of us anyway.

 

[Whileee]

There is no evidence late season surges by bad teams yield future results. That's the job of corsi to predict. We've had strong corsi all year; all this late season winning is doing is torpedoing our chances at getting a highly skilled young player.

Interesting comment in the WFP from a stats professor about hockey analytics... people who think that Corsi are "advanced" stats probably also think that the cross-bow is a modern weapon.

I think that the Jets good shot metrics last season had a lot to do with Maurice's system, and hard-working players implementing it. But I always thought that the Jets' skill level was a notch below. Now, the team looks like it has a lot more skilled players. Scheifele has rounded into a top player. Ehlers adds dynamic skill to that line, and together they are meshing well with Buff. Now, the bottom 6 is starting to look much more skilled, with players able to make plays, not just play a system. Real contenders don't only drive shot metrics, but they also have the skill to create and capitalize on chances. "Skill that works hard" is where this team seems to be heading.

 

[Whileee]

I knew someone was going to come along and do the math for me! Thanks homie. So a combined 40.9% chance of either moving into the top 3 or staying put. That ain't half bad, considering.

Now what if we end up in "5th?"

6th seed probabilities....

1 - 8.50%
2 - 8.77%
3 - 9.01% (top 3 - 26.28%)
4 - 0.00%
5 - 9.09%
6 - 35.46%
7 - 25.47%
8 - 3.70%

 

[garret9]

Interesting comment in the WFP from a stats professor about hockey analytics... people who think that Corsi are "advanced" stats probably also think that the cross-bow is a modern weapon.

I think that the Jets good shot metrics last season had a lot to do with Maurice's system, and hard-working players implementing it. But I always thought that the Jets' skill level was a notch below. Now, the team looks like it has a lot more skilled players. Scheifele has rounded into a top player. Ehlers adds dynamic skill to that line, and together they are meshing well with Buff. Now, the bottom 6 is starting to look much more skilled, with players able to make plays, not just play a system. Real contenders don't only drive shot metrics, but they also have the skill to create and capitalize on chances. "Skill that works hard" is where this team seems to be heading.

It's not advanced, as it's really simple differential in percentage form.

Good news is simplicity and effectiveness are two different things.

In regards to Maurice, they were better with him than with Noel, as he has a better system, but the Jets still were good even under Noel, especially in top end performers, due to having a lot of skilled players at the top of the roster... although they lacked depth in skill which we are starting to see.

 

[Guardian17]

Nice to see the Jets win.

I hope to see Scheifele at the Worlds.

 

[veganhunter]

It is fun watching the Jets win. IMHO the team embracing hard work and the will to win right up to the end and not embracing an Oiler-like losing culture is far more important to the future of this team than a slightly higher draft pick.

"Losing culture" doesn't exist.

The Oilers suck because they have a meddling owner, all precious management hires were based on nepotism, they were unlucky with years they drafted first (except McDavid), they have no defense, they have bad goaltending.

It's not because of some g oofy made up narrative about their players mental deficiency.

Ask Columbus how rejecting a "losing culture" at the end of last season worked out for them this year.

Just as dumb as the "winning culture" garbage spewed around here ad nauseum until it magically disappeared the very second the Jets were on their way to a lottery pick.