Pre-Game Talk: 23-24 mid season look

[Nikishin Go Boom]

We have 4 days off so it felt like the right time to do this instead of waiting until after Thursday’s game (game 41).

Right now we are a 100 point pace. If Thursday is a W it will be a 102 point pace and a L results in a 98 point pace.

Month	W-L	5v5 GF	5v5 GA	5v5 xG%	5v5 HDC%	PP%	PK%	Save%
Oct	6-4-0	21	19	54.4	52.9	25	75	.858
Nov	7-4-1	27	21	59.4	56.1	15.4	75.8	.874
Dec	7-5-3	28	37	52.3	53.6	36.7	93.8	.897
Jan	2-0-1	7	3	66	67.3	62.5	85.7	.941

Home record: 10-3-4
Away record: 12-10-1

The PP has been below average in one month total. Of course this wild run over the last 2 weeks pulled up a slow December start.

The lines have bounced around but here are the most used in 5v5 play
MSF
Bunting-KK-Necas
TT-Aho-Jarvis
TT-Aho-Svech

When looking at the 2 Aho lines- TAJ is statistically better than SAT. TAJ is better in CF, SF%, 1 more goal scored, and better expected GF%.

The best lines by stats

Svech-Aho-Jarvis
Bunting-KK-Turbo
MSF
Necas-Drury-Noesen

disclaimer: these lines have smaller sample sizes than our already small sample size top used lines from above

Click to read more...

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

24 home games and 18 away games left.

If we use the season to look at expected record the rest of the way:
Home: 14-4-6
Away: 9-8-1

Points: 53 points (102 total)

If we use the last 3 seasons:
Home: 16.5-4.5-3
Away: 10.5-5-2.5

Points: 58 points (107 total)

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Top 5v5 points

Aho: 18
Jarvis: 17
Noesen: 17
Necas and Slavin: 16

Top PP points
Aho: 20
Svech: 13
Burns and Bunting: 12
Turbo: 10

Biggest disappointments
Necas, KK, and Raanta (no particular order)

HM: TDA, Orlov (although his deal wasnt going to look good this year)

Top performers

Aho, Noesen, Slavin

HM: Skjei


Most likely to have a strong back half: Burns

HM: Necas

 

[MinJaBen]

Noesen: 11
Aho: 18
Jarvis: 17
Noesen: 17
Necas and Slavin: 16

Damn, Noesen with 28 points to Aho's 18. He is sooooo underpaid.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Damn, Noesen with 28 points to Aho's 18. He is sooooo underpaid.

lol, thanks for the catch

is interesting that noesen had 20 5v5 points total last year but 17 this year

 

[bleedgreen]

My biggest disappointments are TDA and Raanta because they just haven’t been up to the level needed. Bunting is close for me even if he’s had moments of production. Everyone else who has struggled have been at least partially affected by the team play as we kinda sucked.

Necas is two pts off Aho and the team lead for 5v5 despite his “awful” play, which the coach (and I’m with him here) doesn’t agree with as his ice time is up there. This team was just void offensively during the poor stretches and he’s the best creator in those moments….and he’s usually by himself. Late in games where we’re down and taking chances to get back in Necas is out there and when you’re used like that and losing a lot you take minus’s. He’s always been loose with the puck, he always plays better when he’s got help.

Goaltending and inconsistent offense is what hurt us. Svech getting healthy helped the offense and pp, we got a little swagger back from that and the goaltending settled down though Koochie is not the answer for the long term.

Question is are we the team of the last few weeks or are we easily pushed back into what we were most of this first half?

Agreed Burns is set for a good second half, he’s heating up.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

My biggest disappointments are TDA and Raanta because they just haven’t been up to the level needed. Bunting is close for me even if he’s had moments of production. Everyone else who has struggled have been at least partially affected by the team play as we kinda sucked.

Necas is two pts off Aho and the team lead for 5v5 despite his “awful” play, which the coach (and I’m with him here) doesn’t agree with as his ice time is up there. This team was just void offensively during the poor stretches and he’s the best creator in those moments….and he’s usually by himself. Late in games where we’re down and taking chances to get back in Necas is out there and when you’re used like that and losing a lot you take minus’s. He’s always been loose with the puck, he always plays better when he’s got help.

Goaltending and inconsistent offense is what hurt us. Svech getting healthy helped the offense and pp, we got a little swagger back from that and the goaltending settled down though Koochie is not the answer for the long term.

Question is are we the team of the last few weeks or are we easily pushed back into what we were most of this first half?

Agreed Burns is set for a good second half, he’s heating up.

His ice time is up there despite being one of the worst defensive forwards we have. He has had some bad luck in GAs department when on the ice and we’re losing. He takes the puck too deep into a corner and turns it over regularly. He doesn’t win board battles, at all, and is easily separated from the puck. But he still young, fast, and creative with the puck so he still plays a lot.

 

[MinJaBen]

My biggest disappointments are TDA and Raanta because they just haven’t been up to the level needed. Bunting is close for me even if he’s had moments of production. Everyone else who has struggled have been at least partially affected by the team play as we kinda sucked.

Bunting seems fine to me, given his usage. The bigger issue with Bunting is it is again showing the disconnect between the front office and their acquisitions, and the coaching style. I don't know if Rod is the stubborn one here or the front office just can't pickup/identify/sign guys that fit Rod's style, but it makes me scratch my head yet again.

 

[Svechhammer]

Biggest disappointment for me is probably Necas. I know he's getting points out there, but he's become a turnover machine and more often than not, the offensive attack dies on his stick than something good comes out of it. His tendencies to try and hero puck every time he has possession makes the team worse when he's on the ice. If he doesn't turn it around, he won't be with the team going forward, and maybe that would be for the best for every party involved.

TDA is pretty much what we should have expected. The Flyers couldn't get rid of him fast enough, and we should have known that one year of playing with Slavin shouldn't have swayed us into thinking he was suddenly good. Putting him with Orlov to start the year was a huge mistake, and I'm glad we finally moved from it. Orlov definitely makes mistakes from time to time, but Chatty is the kind of guy who can cover for those mistakes most of the time, and it makes both players better.

Biggest development, at least for me, is Kooch coming into his own. We've long known that he's better the more he plays, and now we don't have a choice but to let him show it, and he's proving those statements correct. He keeps this up, and he's our starting goalie going forward. The team just plays better when they know they can trust the guy between the pipes, and you can see they trust him.

Our PP, however, is unsustainable and we should be worried that we are struggling to score 5v5 this year. We absolutely must trade for offensive help at the deadline if we want to make a run at the Cup. We are a team primed to be goalied in a playoff series if we don't.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Biggest disappointment for me is probably Necas. I know he's getting points out there, but he's become a turnover machine and more often than not, the offensive attack dies on his stick than something good comes out of it. His tendencies to try and hero puck every time he has possession makes the team worse when he's on the ice. If he doesn't turn it around, he won't be with the team going forward, and maybe that would be for the best for every party involved.

TDA is pretty much what we should have expected. The Flyers couldn't get rid of him fast enough, and we should have known that one year of playing with Slavin shouldn't have swayed us into thinking he was suddenly good. Putting him with Orlov to start the year was a huge mistake, and I'm glad we finally moved from it. Orlov definitely makes mistakes from time to time, but Chatty is the kind of guy who can cover for those mistakes most of the time, and it makes both players better.

Biggest development, at least for me, is Kooch coming into his own. We've long known that he's better the more he plays, and now we don't have a choice but to let him show it, and he's proving those statements correct. He keeps this up, and he's our starting goalie going forward. The team just plays better when they know they can trust the guy between the pipes, and you can see they trust him.

Our PP, however, is unsustainable and we should be worried that we are struggling to score 5v5 this year. We absolutely must trade for offensive help at the deadline if we want to make a run at the Cup. We are a team primed to be goalied in a playoff series if we don't.

Our 5v5 scoring the last 3 seasons is 2.69 per game, 12th best.

This season it is 2.6 per game, 17th best.

are we struggling or are other teams outperforming the expected so far and will balance out by the season?

 

[The Jerk Store]

I think we need to include Chatfield as an HM for top performer. We all know how underrated he is, but he has been able to stabilize the bottom D pair in spite of being penciled in as the #7 D.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

If our goaltending was as bad in Dec/Jan as it was in Oct/Nov, we'd be sitting outside of a playoff spot, even with the incredible run the PP has been on.

From the start of the season through 11/30, Goals Saved Above Expected:
Raanta: -7.88; Kochetkov: -5.46
From 12/1 through today:
Raanta: -0.89; Kochetkov: +2.96

 

[Chrispy]

Our 5v5 scoring the last 3 seasons is 2.69 per game, 12th best.

This season it is 2.6 per game, 17th best.

are we struggling or are other teams outperforming the expected so far and will balance out by the season?

I wanted to look into this, so I checked Natural Stat trick:

17th from 2020-21 to 2022-23 was 2.48 GF/g 5v5. 2.6 from 2020-21 to 2022-23 would have been good for 16th.

There was a big drop from 15 to 17 (2.65 to 2.48) in that 3 year dataset, so it's hard to say whether dropping to 17th with a drop of 0.09 is expected. I'd say it's probably about what I would expect.

 

[bleedgreen]

His ice time is up there despite being one of the worst defensive forwards we have. He has had some bad luck in GAs department when on the ice and we’re losing. He takes the puck too deep into a corner and turns it over regularly. He doesn’t win board battles, at all, and is easily separated from the puck. But he still young, fast, and creative with the puck so he still plays a lot.

Well one of the whole concepts of good old fashioned defensive hockey is “getting the puck deep”…so even if he loses it down there it’s the best place to lose it. Especially since our team concept is to give it to the other team down there and chase them until they give it up. It’s him losing it before then that I would say is the occasional issue that just comes with him. Others are better at puck protection, he shows the enemy the puck and doesn’t have a strong stick to keep it.

It’s not deemed that bad though, because Rod doesn’t play anyone who’s that bad defensively. I’m a big advocator of two way play being as much about puck management as it is back checking and working hard. Necas has his flaws with the puck but I find him to be as hard working as anyone else about tracking back and doing the job. You can tell by his personality that he wants to be part of everything. He looks like a puppy wanting attention most of the time. He’ll do whatever Rod asks of him to the best of his ability.

That bad luck with the GA’s makes it look worse than it is. Staal is -14. No one questions his defensive ability based off a questionable stat like that, but I suspect more than one person here conversely sees Necas at -13 and thinks he’s worse than he actually is. It’s puck management when he’s creating that he’s “bad defensively” and we’re a team that needs someone that brings what he does.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I haven't truly been disappointed with an our team outside of our early goaltending. Raanta and especially Kochetkov both look like they might be turning the corner, though. Kuzmenko's situation with Tocchet/Vancouver intrigues me. Hopefully the Canes find a way to acquire him at the deadline.

 

[hblueridgegal]

Was this what was expected to happen?

 

[Blueline Bomber]

My biggest concern for the 2nd half of the season is what's going to happen when Aho/Svech come off this heater they're on. Will the rest of the team step up, or will we go back to scoring 1 fluke goal on 35+ shots?

 

[MinJaBen]

My biggest concern for the 2nd half of the season is what's going to happen when Aho/Svech come off this heater they're on. Will the rest of the team step up, or will we go back to scoring 1 fluke goal on 35+ shots?

You mean like Saturday?

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Too many numbers. Team is looking very very good lately so I’m happy and excited about the 2nd half of the year and playoffs

 

[FlyingSquirrels]

My problem is Martinook isn't even playing at ECHL levels yet we send down are far superior skilled forward while he still gets 18 minutes a night. This is shear madness and NOT what Cup aspiring teams do. f*** allegiance in the Rod country club. It's about winning.
Thanks. Needed to say that.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

View attachment 798889
Was this what was expected to happen?

i wish these could be captured in time. I would be willing to bet that offensive and defensive numbers crept up once joining Boston. Is amazing what a system will do for a guy. Also go from playing with your team's best to playing the third pair will do for offensive stats

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

View attachment 798889
Was this what was expected to happen?

What Canes coaching does to players? Does he mean Canes coaching made a defenseman better at defense or am I misreading the chart?

If that's the case, on the surface, it kinda makes sense though. In Carolina, he's getting more sheltered minutes playing with less offensive players, so he's had an easier job defensively against weaker competition, but a harder time offensively due to playing with lesser players. His most common forward linemates 5v5 by TOI are Necas, Drury, KK, Noesen and Buntin.

Last year, his most common line mates 5v5 were: Sheary, Eller, Kuznetsov, Strome and Ovechkin.

 

[WreckingCrew]

Anyone know why we have such a long break between games here?

 

[Derailed75]

My problem is Martinook isn't even playing at ECHL levels yet we send down are far superior skilled forward while he still gets 18 minutes a night. This is shear madness and NOT what Cup aspiring teams do. f*** allegiance in the Rod country club. It's about winning.
Thanks. Needed to say that.

Hard disagree. Nook is a big part of Staal line and the frequently shut down the top lines in the game. You are right it is about winning and thats why he is stapled to that line and that line is on the ice against the other teams first line for as many minutes as possible.

 

[hblueridgegal]

What Canes coaching does to players? Does he mean Canes coaching made a defenseman better at defense or am I misreading the chart?

If that's the case, on the surface, it kinda makes sense though. In Carolina, he's getting more sheltered minutes playing with less offensive players, so he's had an easier job defensively against weaker competition, but a harder time offensively due to playing with lesser players. His most common forward linemates 5v5 by TOI are Necas, Drury, KK, Noesen and Buntin.

Last year, his most common line mates 5v5 were: Sheary, Eller, Kuznetsov, Strome and Ovechkin.

Given all the data they employ..I was genuinely curious if mgt. can anticipate changes in performance and outcomes based on factors such as a new style of play and teammates, etc. He's still getting quite a bit of negative feedback online but perhaps mgt is happy?