'23-'24 Central Division Predictions

[DRW204]

think it's safe to make this thread now with the likelihood of either Scheifele or Helle being dealt being v low or close to zero at this point to start the season

last season in a September poll done by @voyageur 135/201 respondents had the Jets in the POs.

in a cumulation of 10 different projection sites/publications the past couple seasons, they projected the Jets at -
2122: 3rd place (6th actual)
2223: 6th place (4th actual)
2324: ?????

Click to read more...

 

[Cypruss]

I picked third for the Jets, for what its worth, here is how I see the central finishing this season:

Colorado

Dallas


Winnipeg
Minnesota
Nashville

St. Louis
Arizona

Chicago

 

[WaveRaven]

I see no reason to believe they will anything more than they have been in the past few years a bubble team ..... again.

 

[surixon]

I see us in third more so due to the division being weak. Colorado and Dallas are clearly better, Chicago, Arizona, and Nashville clearly worse.

We are in the group with Minnesota and St. Louis and imo both teams got worse this offseason.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Defence first Will surprise many this year. Not sure why it fell off the rails last year but team will go back to its 2022 H1 roots.

 

[Buffdog]

I see no reason to believe they will anything more than they have been in the past few years a bubble team ..... again.

You don't think the vastly improved forward depth makes them better?

Really, no team in the division is without its flaws. I can see Dallas and Colorado being 1/2 but it's a crapshoot after that

The one thing that concerns me is that Bones is already on record as saying that they want to play that "pressure style" again. It worked great in the first half of the season last year, but I still believe that part of the reason for the second half collapse was that it's a grind to play that way over the entire 82 game schedule and guys got gassed and injured. Hopefully with the added forward depth, Bones rolls all four lines and spreads the ice time out to keep everyone fresh

 

[DRW204]

i think 3rd is a comfortable prediction, w/ a shot at 2nd. the area id be watching is the Jets' goal-scoring needs to improve from what it's been over the last 2 seasons. even post-TDL when they got Nino & Names, they were still bottom-10 in goal-scoring rate (all-strengths) through the final quarter of the season.

I like COLs additions in Tatar, Colton and Wood. & Georgiev surprisingly(?) was not far off Helle last season. I have them at 1st.

I think MIN and DAL are still really good teams that are not going anywhere. I think we will be nip and tuck with MIN most of the year. w/ DAL at 2nd.

 

[tbcwpg]

I see us in third more so due to the division being weak. Colorado and Dallas are clearly better, Chicago, Arizona, and Nashville clearly worse.

We are in the group with Minnesota and St. Louis and imo both teams got worse this offseason.

I think St. Louis finishes below Arizona.

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

First place, big buyers at the deadline and keeping Helle + Scheif for a huge all in run

 

[WaveRaven]

You don't think the vastly improved forward depth makes them better?

Really, no team in the division is without its flaws. I can see Dallas and Colorado being 1/2 but it's a crapshoot after that

The one thing that concerns me is that Bones is already on record as saying that they want to play that "pressure style" again. It worked great in the first half of the season last year, but I still believe that part of the reason for the second half collapse was that it's a grind to play that way over the entire 82 game schedule and guys got gassed and injured. Hopefully with the added forward depth, Bones rolls all four lines and spreads the ice time out to keep everyone fresh

Nope. We lost our 2c and wheeler we added pieces but I don't see them as making us better. More like keeps us where we were. Remember the old adage whomever gets the best player wins the trade.

I believe they never fully bought in or couldn't adapt in a season to Bone's style.

This teams collapse last season was not due to being burnt out but a combination of things like the excessive perimeter play that doesn't work once the games tighten up late season. Thats not Bone's system for certain.

The fancy stats seem to suggest sh% and save % had a hand in it but doesn't explain it all. The defence sucks for such a veteran group.

So we'll see. I just don't see this group as suddenly becoming much better. They are what they are at this point another year of lather, rinse, repeat. Head and Shoulders should be our jersey add.

 

[Weezeric]

Nope. We lost our 2c and wheeler we added pieces but I don't see them as making us better. More like keeps us where we were. Remember the old adage whomever gets the best player wins the trade.

I believe they never fully bought in or couldn't adapt in a season to Bone's style.

This teams collapse last season was not due to being burnt out but a combination of things like the excessive perimeter play that doesn't work once the games tighten up late season. Thats not Bone's system for certain.

The fancy stats seem to suggest sh% and save % had a hand in it but doesn't explain it all. The defence sucks for such a veteran group.

So we'll see. I just don't see this group as suddenly becoming much better. They are what they are at this point another year of lather, rinse, repeat. Head and Shoulders should be our jersey add.

Why do you say the defence sucks? By xGA they were a top 5 team over the last 25 games of 22-23 and they were a top 10 team by GA for the whole year.

 

[raideralex99]

Injuries are a big part of where the teams finish so if there are no major injuries my prediction.
Avs and Stars are fighting for 1 & 2 with Wild and Jets fighting for 3rd. Coyotes are on the raise and could be in the mix followed by Preds, Blues and Hawks.

 

[KingBogo]

3rd seems like a reasonable guess to me. Behind the Avs and Stars, but they are a deeper team this season and can beat out the rest.

 

[DRW204]

Nope. We lost our 2c and wheeler we added pieces but I don't see them as making us better. More like keeps us where we were. Remember the old adage whomever gets the best player wins the trade.

I believe they never fully bought in or couldn't adapt in a season to Bone's style.

This teams collapse last season was not due to being burnt out but a combination of things like the excessive perimeter play that doesn't work once the games tighten up late season. Thats not Bone's system for certain.

The fancy stats seem to suggest sh% and save % had a hand in it but doesn't explain it all. The defence sucks for such a veteran group.

So we'll see. I just don't see this group as suddenly becoming much better. They are what they are at this point another year of lather, rinse, repeat. Head and Shoulders should be our jersey add.

their defense was fine last year. goal-scoring is definitely their weakness. their defense/pk used to be garbage. if this was 2018-2021 id agree with you.

but they showed big improvements in limiting chances at both 5v5 and on the PK from the season prior, and just outside top-10 in GA rate.

summary from the last 2-years league rank from NST

 

[ps241]

Can't decide between 3rd or 4th. Minnesota seems to have found a way to do better than us over the past 3-4 seasons in the regular season so I think I'll take lucky #4. Central used to me a great division but with Nashville, St Louis, Chicago, and Arizona all kind of rebuild/tooling it seems like we might be in a decent spot.

 

[Weezeric]

I’m not sure why everyone loves Dallas so much. They have some really solid players but they also rely a lot on players in their mid to late 30s who could fall off at any moment…

 

[WaveRaven]

their defense was fine last year. goal-scoring is definitely their weakness. their defense/pk used to be garbage. if this was 2018-2021 id agree with you.

but they showed big improvements in limiting chances at both 5v5 and on the PK from the season prior, and just outside top-10 in GA rate.

summary from the last 2-years league rank from NST

View attachment 746070

I'm talking about the 6 dmen as a group. Fancy stats aren't the be all of explanations. Seems like around here ya throw out what you can obviously see and refer to the fancy stats like that's it. They had way more problems than JUST scoring and few more timely saves.

They make a lot mistakes for veteran group, aren't great at moving the puck out and struggle with board/net front play. Now that doesn't mean they all suck just for the cap space used for 2nd and 3rd pair guys with experience I expect better.

 

[tbcwpg]

I’m not sure why everyone loves Dallas so much. They have some really solid players but they also rely a lot on players in their mid to late 30s who could fall off at any moment…

They mostly rely on Robertson (24), Hintz (26), Oettinger (24), and Heiskanen (24).

 

[DRW204]

I'm talking about the 6 dmen as a group. Fancy stats aren't the be all of explanations. Seems like around here ya throw out what you can obviously see and refer to the fancy stats like that's it. They had way more problems than JUST scoring and few more timely saves.

They make a lot mistakes for veteran group, aren't great at moving the puck out and struggle with board/net front play. Now that doesn't mean they all suck just for the cap space used for 2nd and 3rd pair guys with experience I expect better.

shots against or goals against are fancy stats now? or PK stats? what are you validating they suck esp compared to other teams?

they make mistakes ok sure.... every player in the nhl makes mistakes in all aspects of the game such as offense, defense or special teams. i do think they could improve in areas such as physicality or moving guys in front of the net with some of their players, but even with that being a weakness they are still rating well in limiting chances or shots against compared to rest of the league (just looking at the 22-23 season).

if their mistakes or weaknesses were significantly worse than other teams', they would be at the bottom of the league in chances against like they've traditionally been during the Maurice-era.

perhaps they're underperforming as a 6-man d-group..... but team defense as a whole has improved dramatically from previous years at 5v5 and on the PK. When you're 21st in Goals-For and top-10 least in total GA or Shots-Against i think i see the bigger need on finishing on their chances.

 

[Weezeric]

They mostly rely on Robertson (24), Hintz (26), Oettinger (24), and Heiskanen (24).

Two out of their top three scorers last year are 34 and 39, and their 2D by ice time is 38..

 

[JetsUK]

Expecting the Jets to land at #3 or 4.

Better than the bottom-feeders and rebuilders, worse than the great powers, more or less even with the pesky Wild, but giving them the nod b/c they have the better grudge and the angrier coach.

Gonna go with the "Safely into the playoffs, maybe sneak a round or even 2" as my full-season and after prediction.

 

[tbcwpg]

Two out of their top three scorers last year are 34 and 39, and their 2D by ice time is 38..

I'd agree they have a lot of older secondary support but the focus of the team is those 4 I listed.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Nope. We lost our 2c and wheeler we added pieces but I don't see them as making us better. More like keeps us where we were. Remember the old adage whomever gets the best player wins the trade.

I believe they never fully bought in or couldn't adapt in a season to Bone's style.

This teams collapse last season was not due to being burnt out but a combination of things like the excessive perimeter play that doesn't work once the games tighten up late season. Thats not Bone's system for certain.

The fancy stats seem to suggest sh% and save % had a hand in it but doesn't explain it all. The defence sucks for such a veteran group.

So we'll see. I just don't see this group as suddenly becoming much better. They are what they are at this point another year of lather, rinse, repeat. Head and Shoulders should be our jersey add.

Hope you are wrong, but time will tell.
I have Jets at 3rd. What happens in the PO is another story altogether.

 

[WolfHouse]

They mostly rely on Robertson (24), Hintz (26), Oettinger (24), and Heiskanen (24).

Three massive hits in one draft... so jealous.

Hintz two picks after Harkins... Oettinger two picks after Vesalainen...

 

[WolfHouse]

Hope you are wrong, but time will tell.
I have Jets at 3rd. What happens in the PO is another story altogether.

If we are replacing Wheeler with Nino in the top six, that's a massive upgrade... if we are replacing him with Iafallo on the 3rd line that's also an upgrade...

A big part of the Jets success this season relies on Perfetti staying healthy and Scheif fully buying in to Bones' system - guess we will see.