OT: 2024 Washington Commanders off-season thread: change we can believe in!

kicksavedave

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Here’s a Radical Idea. Humour me—

Jim Harbaugh keeps coming out and stating how McCarthy is “the best QB in the draft”, and it tooting his horn, regularly. So it got me thinking ….

What if we proposed a swap of 2 & 5 with the Chargers. They give us Herbert, and we give them 2 more 1sts, in ‘25 & ‘26, as well as a 2nd this year (#40).

It would give us our star QB, signed thru 2029. It would give Harbaugh his championship winning QB, reset a very troubled salary cap situation, and allow him to have a lot of extra draft capital to remake the team in his image.

I’m not looking to be flamed here, as this is a “for shits and giggles” type of discussion.

Would you do it? Is it a fair swap of assets? Anyone need to add or subtract?

The dead cap hit on that would be $129M for LA, so Harbaugh would be putting whole his future in a bind, whereas Herberts cap hits for the next few years are extremely reasonable as it is. I wouldn't do it from our end because the cost is really high (in picks) when we have a chance at a guy who compares similar to Herbert.

But, for giggles, if we did this, we could draft Alt at 5, have Herbert, and miss out on those three other unknown players. Its intriguing, we might be an instant playoff contender, but I'd still pass - we just have too many holes and we need the draft picks. More specifically I can't see Harbaugh's GM allowing that Cap hit. They're already strapped because of other moves.
 
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ynotcaps

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Regarding trading down, we know the price is going to be multiple 1st round picks plus some change, to get into the 2 or 3 slot. We also know, from past experience, teams just basically don't give up that much capital for anything other than a QB, almost certainly not for a WR when there are at least 3 really good ones in the top ten already plus a potential top 10 TE. So any team we trade with will be very likely taking a QB and we will know which QB they want before making that trade, leaving us hoping the QB we really want is there when we finally pick. As mentioned, we're not giving the Giants the pick of potential franchise QBs. AZ and LAC don't need a QB. Tennessee is perma mocked to Joe Alt at 7 and seems to like Levis for now. Atlanta just signed KC for a trillion dollars. The Bears at 9 will already have Caleb. The Jets are desperate for OL and have Rogers for another year. So the Vikes, Broncos, Raiders and Saints at 11-14 (other than the Giants at 6) are the only teams realistically in the mood to trade up to land one of the top 3 QBs. I imagine they've all called, and Peters tells them all politely "no, that's too far down for us to go".

If I'm AZ, I sit tight until draft day. Then, if someone takes MH2 from us, that leaves one of DM/JD in their lap and the teams at 6, 11-14 are all going to trip over themselves to get that slot. Then AZ moves down, collects more capital, and takes Nabors or Odunze (or Bowers) and comes away happy. If the draft goes QB at 1,2,3 then AZ takes MH2 and comes away happy. I really can't see any reason for AZ to trade up when they will have more leverage and desire to trade down depending on how the draft actually goes.

I get what we may want to do, but the other team has to have a good reason to do that also. I see 5 teams wanting our pick to land a QB. I don't see AZ or LAC doing that move, they don't need a QB.
Not sure where I saw it -- honestly could have been Kiper, so take it with a large rock of salt in case it was -- but someone had put it out there that some in pro circles are saying the distance b/t MHJ and Nabers has narrowed, and some sound like they prefer the latter.
Now those folks could be smoke-screening, but if there's any truth to the overall proposition that the difference between them isn't so great, that may decrease the likelihood of ARI or SD wanting to trade up. Unless, of course, one or both of them are locked in on their guy, and they believe each other are locked in on the same guy.
 

CapitalsCupReality

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The dead cap hit on that would be $129M for LA, so Harbaugh would be putting whole his future in a bind, whereas Herberts cap hits for the next few years are extremely reasonable as it is. I wouldn't do it from our end because the cost is really high (in picks) when we have a chance at a guy who compares similar to Herbert.

But, for giggles, if we did this, we could draft Alt at 5, have Herbert, and miss out on those three other unknown players. Its intriguing, we might be an instant playoff contender, but I'd still pass - we just have too many holes and we need the draft picks. More specifically I can't see Harbaugh's GM allowing that Cap hit. They're already strapped because of other moves.

This…Harbaugh may believe with his soul that JJ will be a great NFL QB, but he can’t be sure. All sorts of things could keep him from reaching that status. They have their proven guy, you can’t dismiss that so easily in the NFL. The financial impact just confirms they can’t do that.
 
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Cush

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Athletic's latest mock has Maye going at 4 to the Vikings

30. Washington Commanders (from BAL*): Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Projected trade: Commanders acquire No. 30 from Ravens for Nos. 40 and 78


The Commanders were the most active team in free agency, but they didn’t significantly fill their left tackle vacancy. Given how quickly teams snatch tackles, waiting to pounce in the early second round might be risky. Another danger would be not stabilizing the blindside spot with a rookie quarterback. Baltimore could use more picks after seeing numerous free agents leave, though standing pat and taking the 6-foot-8, 322-pound Guyton also works.


 
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Neil Racki

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Fits our pattern.

27 years old, was "next man up" on former team and is being signed with the thought that the player will take the next step. Considering we are paying at or below value for these additions .... Im all for it.

Just wish we didnt piss away so many mid round picks on OL the past 5 years that havent panned out. I LOVE picking IOL in rounds 3 and later but we just sucked at it.

Stromberg (3R) is going to have to fight hard for a roster.

Daniels (4R) might survive if he can prove he can play T and not IOL.
 
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ynotcaps

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Fits our pattern.

27 years old, was "next man up" on former team and is being signed with the thought that the player will take the next step. Considering we are paying at or below value for these additions .... Im all for it.

Just wish we didnt piss away so many mid round picks on OL the past 5 years that havent panned out. I LOVE picking IOL in rounds 3 and later but we just sucked at it.

Stromberg (3R) is going to have to fight hard for a roster.

Daniels (4R) might survive if he can prove he can play T and not IOL.
Hell, Daniels never proved he could play even IOL. He was 6th round prospect at best that we reached for (after reaching for Stromberg) because we passed on viable OLs in the first 2 rounds.
If either of them proves to be worth a bucket of warm spit, it'll be a nice bonus, but I'm not counting on it given your spot-on point about their dog-s*it OL drafting in recent history.
(Huh, turns out I'm still carrying some bitterness...)
 

Jags

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What if we proposed a swap of 2 & 5 with the Chargers. They give us Herbert

It's just not realistic. The Chargers would immediately be staring at a dead cap hit around $130 million. No flame or disrespect intended. It's just one of those details that makes and otherwise interesting idea fall apart.

And there's also the "bird in the hand" argument. Herbert's a stud. McCarthy might not make the jump. Harbaugh knows a little something about not quite making superstar status regardless of talent or desire (and being a 1st rounder from Michigan).
 

Ridley Simon

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It is weird, but it’s a fairly mild climate and maybe they liked the area when he played here?
He specifically mentioned Black people in authority. DC and Baltimore (2 cities mentioned) certainly have that representation.


That’s good and all.

But….. Tackle? We can’t have Lucas and Wylie as the starters. In fact, Wylie needs to slide inside. We really need TWO starting OT’s
 

CapitalsCupReality

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Gods help us…
 

ynotcaps

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Gods help us…
May as well arrest me now, because if they do that at #2, I will be laying winos flat the **** OUT.
 

Ridley Simon

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hey, IF they like McCarthy THAT much (and who could’ve seen that coming???), then I’d wager Peter’s is smart to leverage the 2…..even if it’s only with the Pats and #3.

I’d be pretty surprised if they took McCarthy at 2. All of this kinda sides with what Quinn said in his interview (which wasn’t real, I’m told….just a slew of hypotheticals), which is that we’d take a QB, just wasn’t sure where yet. I thought that pointed away from Daniels…..and perhaps it does. But he did say that. “Not sure where”, and then coupled it with talking to teams from 4 to 7.

It’s probably these guys just connecting the same dots I did.
 
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Jags

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smart to leverage the 2…..even if it’s only with the Pats and #3.

The Pats would have no reason to do that. The only reason Washington would trade back from 2 to 3 is if they planned to do something unconventional (i.e. not pick Maye or Daniels). And if they're going to do that, NE should just stay put and have their choice of the two. Absolutely zero reason to move up.

The only other explanation for a move to 3 would be if they planned to take Maye or Daniels but had absolutely no preference which they get, which would be super wishy washy and wildly unlikely. And even then the Pats would have to care A LOT about which guy to give up anything substantial to go up a spot with a team that might hand them the guy they want anyway.

which is that we’d take a QB, just wasn’t sure where yet. I thought that pointed away from Daniels…..and perhaps it does. But he did say that. “Not sure where”, and then coupled it with talking to teams from 4 to 7.

He's not the guy having these discussions. I know all there is to do right now is speculate, and that can be fun, but you're playing Sherlock Holmes with zero actual information.

Meanwhile, the actual situation is still that we're almost definitely staying at 2 and selecting Maye or Daniels. All that insider talk is horseshit. Peters was pretty clear that they're still collecting info and are nowhere near a real decision given how much there's left to learn. Same thing they did with the coach search.

So if he doesn't know yet then there's no insider info to be had. "They like JJ," is a thing people heard from EVERYONE that saw JJ throw because JJ threw well. Then they'll see another guy and they'll probably like him, too. And another, because they're all great.

And after each one someone will speculate that Washington's definitely gonna take that guy because they saw Peters smile a lot while he threw, when in reality EVERYONE was smiling because it's fun and the assistant assistant Minnesota GM farted...
 

Ridley Simon

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No disrespect, but sure seem to claim to know a lot, while exclaiming that no one else does (including HCDQ). That’s a tad ironic.

It could be smoke and mirrors, or it could be spot on.

And OFC NE may have reason to move. If they really want Daniels, and another team really wants Daniels, then only way to guarantee him is #2, and they easily give up the least to move up.

Everyone gets so quick and ready to shoot down anything that doesn’t have Wash taking Maye or Daniels at 2. Peters knows what’s he’s doing, right? Even if it is not what you/me/the masses want right him to do….his decision making skills are supposed to be trusted. Lots of smart very accomplished people thought he was the correct person for this job. So far, he’s done well in coaching hires and FA signings. No reason to doubt him now (or yet).

So let’s see. I just love all the intrigue. Others are getting their panties bunched a little bit. Stand up and pull that wedge down. It’s ok, we are allowed.
 

ynotcaps

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I heard this perspective recently in the difference between a scout versus coaches when evaluating prospects and it is a good one.
This is exactly why I'm dying for there to be somebody who gets Defensive coaches to do breakdowns on the QBs. What do those guys see in these prospects, how would they gameplan against them, what scares them (the coaches) about each guy's talents -- or, conversely, what would they look at and say, "let me at that guy."

If I knew even the slightest shit about coaching and had connections, I would grant all these guys all the anonymity they'd want to feed me that info and produce breakdowns. That would be freaking gold.

(BTW, willing to bet that DQ and his top D staff will be feeding Peters and the scouting staff their perspective on these guys.)
 

Jags

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It could be smoke and mirrors, or it could be spot on.

No, it's only smoke and mirrors. They are collectively not tipping their hand, partly because it's smart and partly because they really don't know yet.

All the scouting in the world is no substitute for having real sit-downs with prospects and assessing them fully. Ask them about the film everyone else (including you and your scouts) is speculating about. Get a sense of their intelligence, maturity, humility, and leadership. What happens between now and the draft for the teams in real need of a QB is crucially important.

It would be really stupid to have an absolute answer right now, so they don't. And that's exactly what Peters said. DQ was intentionally vague because they don't know, he wouldn't say who if they did know, and it wouldn't be his job to say who regardless.

And OFC NE may have reason to move. If they really want Daniels, and another team really wants Daniels, then only way to guarantee him is #2, and they easily give up the least to move up.

That's not what I said. I said NE has no reason to move if it's Washington that approaches them because I was replying to what you said about it being "smart to leverage the 2, even if it's only with the Pats..." They would have to 100% know who NE wants AND not want that guy to even entertain the idea, and neither team has any reason to be transparent.

* If DC intends to select Daniels or Maye, they have absolutely no reason to trade back. They will definitely have strong feelings about one over the other unless they're the most wishy washy football experts ever.​
* So if NE really wants one of those guys so much that they're willing to pay, they'd have to give up a package worth DC not getting who they want, which only works if DC absolutely does not tell anyone who they really want. This is why we're all so sure that DQ said nothing the other day. We respect his football intelligence.​
* If WE are the team that wants to move back as you suggested, it means we either feel VERY, VERY good about a QB that isn't Maye or Daniels OR that our new front office is a bunch of p***yes willing to trade away our agency for some maybes.​
* At 3 with no guarantees of moving anywhere, NE has to be confident about more than one guy. Their offense currently has ZERO identity. They have nothing to build around. The upside is when you're starting from zero, you can build around anyone, any style. So why pay anything to move up with a QB class this deep?​
I'm really sorry about the length of this, but you have to consider both perspectives and think a few moves ahead. You can't just say "We can get Herbert!" and not look at the $130m cap hit that makes it impossible. You can't just say "Arizona might move up!" when they have zero reason to do so. And you can't just say "Moving to 3 makes sense!" because it can only really make sense to one side or the other because one side has to do something really dumb.

The Pats definitely can't afford the assets and the Commanders shouldn't want to surrender control.
 
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RedRocking

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I’d be thrilled if JJM overtook JD as one of the two main options. It would be nice not to be constantly worrying about the possibility of RG3 2.0. I’m losing sleep - it’s exhausting, lol.
 
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Jags

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I’d be thrilled if JJM overtook JD as one of the two main options. It would be nice not to be constantly worrying about the possibility of RG3 2.0. I’m losing sleep - it’s exhausting, lol.

I feel exactly the same way. He may very well be the better prospect, but I'll have anxiety watching him that I probably won't with someone else. And I'm getting too old for that shit. ;)

Maye, McCarthy, whoever... Spare me the heart attack, would ya please?
 
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RedRocking

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From JP Finlay - some insight into the FO’s QB evaluation process, the JJ McCarthy rumors, and other tidbits from the annual meetings in Orlando.
 
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