OT: 2024 Washington Commanders off-season thread: change we can believe in!

[hotpaws]

Experience was a definite target, but they're also the most athletic draft class, and a bunch were captains and team leaders. The latter smacks of RR, but combined with the first 2 traits, it means these guys should be expected to play. (Certainly the first 3 rounds of picks.)

You're on the record as not liking the Daniels pick, fine, but his experience was an asset, not "the reason" they picked him -- league consensus is he's the second best QB in the draft, and some ranked him first. The offense will be built around him and the team will work from it day 1. Newton seems a bit like a luxury pick, but he immediately gives us a stud to rotate in to keep the interior DL fresh and provide up-the-middle pass-rush, which is critical with patch-work DE, and he gives us roster & payroll flexibility next year. Sainristill is a straight up stud who should start immediately in the slot, and Sinnott is either the best or second best TE in the draft, and can block and catch, unlike the TEs we drafted every effing year in the RR regime.

Coleman is a gamble as 'tweener, but he has experience (that word again) at LT, and that was actually his better position at TCU before the coordinator and scheme got changed before his senior year (you know, the same reason folks didn't want Maye's last year to count against him.)

They looked for players that could get on the field, play meaningful snaps, and start to form the new home-grown core under the tutelage of the veterans they brought in on the short-term deals to rebuild the culture. Commitment to an organizational vision is far from a bad thing.

is the bolded any different from the other teams in the league ? going for more experienced players just means they wanted to get them potentially on the field quicker , it doesn't mean they have higher upside , kind of like drafting a college vs high school'er in baseball

league consensus means shit especially since it seemed JD moved up after the season ended and some part of that was because they the team was leaning that way

Sainristill may have been a stud at college but he's undersized so we'll have to see how his game translates and nobody thought Sinnott was even close to the best tight end in what was considered a very weak TE draft class outside of Bowers .

also i really don't mean to knock the draft picks , but as i said in the post you replied to , i just find it interesting he was getting praise for picking ''great value'' picks when outside of Coleman there was no one i thought ''i can't believe he's still on the board" in fact it seemed the opposite and we took guys who were projected to be drafted later

 

[Ridley Simon]

@hotpaws Based on whose rankings? ESPN’s?

Newton was def a value pick. 36 was basically the lowest he could’ve gone, IMO. Most had him in 1st — even top 25.

Sainistril was all over the map, from late first to late 3rd. No real consensus on him.

I saw Sinnott in 2nd or 3rd, pretty much across the board. I also didn’t see anyone other than Sanders being projected ahead of him — and that was about 50/50.

Candidly I thought Coleman was high, based on need. He was the one I thought was too early.

McCaffrey was part of a group of WR’s that was more “pick your flavour”. I saw him from late 90’s to 130 or so. Meaning 100 was def on the early part of his projections. But I doubt he’d have been there at 139. Hence why they took him.

Magee seemed early as well, but he’s getting some accolades from the talking heads.

Hampton and the Notre Dame kid were “who is that?!?!” for me. But as the last 2 picks, I wasn’t worried about it.

I think that’s as fair of an assessment as I can give. It was a good draft, IMO. Was it great? TBD.

Lastly — I did NOT like grabbing a player at literally almost every position. That doesn’t say “BPA” to me. I find it impossible to believe that the board rolled that way for them. Just so happening that the positions they needed ended up BPA, every time?

That’s horseshit. But whatever. We will see how it all rolls

 

[usiel]

@hotpaws Based on whose rankings? ESPN’s?

Newton was def a value pick. 36 was basically the lowest he could’ve gone, IMO. Most had him in 1st — even top 25.

Sainistril was all over the map, from late first to late 3rd. No real consensus on him.

I saw Sinnott in 2nd or 3rd, pretty much across the board. I also didn’t see anyone other than Sanders being projected ahead of him — and that was about 50/50.

Candidly I thought Coleman was high, based on need. He was the one I thought was too early.

McCaffrey was part of a group of WR’s that was more “pick your flavour”. I saw him from late 90’s to 130 or so. Meaning 100 was def on the early part of his projections. But I doubt he’d have been there at 139. Hence why they took him.

Magee seemed early as well, but he’s getting some accolades from the talking heads.

Hampton and the Notre Dame kid were “who is that?!?!” for me. But as the last 2 picks, I wasn’t worried about it.

I think that’s as fair of an assessment as I can give. It was a good draft, IMO. Was it great? TBD.

Lastly — I did NOT like grabbing a player at literally almost every position. That doesn’t say “BPA” to me. I find it impossible to believe that the board rolled that way for them. Just so happening that the positions they needed ended up BPA, every time?

That’s horseshit. But whatever. We will see how it all rolls

My stats brain doesn't compute this how that prove that it isn't BPA. Would you expect multiple doubling up position wise or something?

 

[ynotcaps]

@hotpaws Based on whose rankings? ESPN’s?

Newton was def a value pick. 36 was basically the lowest he could’ve gone, IMO. Most had him in 1st — even top 25.

Sainistril was all over the map, from late first to late 3rd. No real consensus on him.

I saw Sinnott in 2nd or 3rd, pretty much across the board. I also didn’t see anyone other than Sanders being projected ahead of him — and that was about 50/50.

Candidly I thought Coleman was high, based on need. He was the one I thought was too early.

McCaffrey was part of a group of WR’s that was more “pick your flavour”. I saw him from late 90’s to 130 or so. Meaning 100 was def on the early part of his projections. But I doubt he’d have been there at 139. Hence why they took him.

Magee seemed early as well, but he’s getting some accolades from the talking heads.

Hampton and the Notre Dame kid were “who is that?!?!” for me. But as the last 2 picks, I wasn’t worried about it.

I think that’s as fair of an assessment as I can give. It was a good draft, IMO. Was it great? TBD.

Lastly — I did NOT like grabbing a player at literally almost every position. That doesn’t say “BPA” to me. I find it impossible to believe that the board rolled that way for them. Just so happening that the positions they needed ended up BPA, every time?

That’s horseshit. But whatever. We will see how it all rolls

I actually see it differently, for a couple of reasons:

Newton was 100% BPA, because DT was nowhere near a "need" -- classic case of the team saying "holy shit, how is he still there?" Quinn said as much -- Peters asked if they could use him, and coaches said "we'll make a way."

The other is the pick they didn't make, and that's OT. Coleman could be that OT, and maybe that was a reach in the third (I'm not 100% on him either, but they know better than I do.) But I think they were really doing "position of need," they would have spent at least one of the seconds on a reach OT.

Finally: how many ****ing years in a row can a team draft a ****ing safety? If they were trying to fill needs, seems they would have tried to shore up with another flier on an OT (which I would have preferred -- another ****ing safety? Really???)

I mean, you could be right, but it just seems like there bigger areas of need than what they picked in several cases.

 

[Ridley Simon]

My stats brain doesn't compute this how that prove that it isn't BPA. Would you expect multiple doubling up position wise or something?

Yes. You’ve got to double up, somewhere. Law of averages and all. I think they purposely tried to add one player at each position spot. Had they had 3 more picks, I’d wager we would’ve seen an OG, an OC, and a RB. All 12 spots hit—

It still may be a great draft, don’t get me wrong. However I’m not buying the “BPA at every pick” crap. That’s all.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I actually see it differently, for a couple of reasons:

Newton was 100% BPA, because DT was nowhere near a "need" -- classic case of the team saying "holy shit, how is he still there?" Quinn said as much -- Peters asked if they could use him, and coaches said "we'll make a way."

The other is the pick they didn't make, and that's OT. Coleman could be that OT, and maybe that was a reach in the third (I'm not 100% on him either, but they know better than I do.) But I think they were really doing "position of need," they would have spent at least one of the seconds on a reach OT.

Finally: how many ****ing years in a row can a team draft a ****ing safety? If they were trying to fill needs, seems they would have tried to shore up with another flier on an OT (which I would have preferred -- another ****ing safety? Really???)

I mean, you could be right, but it just seems like there bigger areas of need than what they picked in several cases.

Newton was def BPA. But it got a lot dicier as the draft progressed. Their last 3 picks seemed to be “slotted” (LB, S, DE). Pick one of each to add depth to each room.

They did lose Curl. So S was a thing, a little bit.

 

[ynotcaps]

Newton was def BPA. But it got a lot dicier as the draft progressed. Their last 3 picks seemed to be “slotted” (LB, S, DE). Pick one of each to add depth to each room.

They did lose Curl. So S was a thing, a little bit.

Yeah, but I liked the Chinn add for his replacement. Guess now we can take bets on what round we pick our S in '25.

 

[kicksavedave]

I mean, for a team with so many holes, so much of a talent gap, any position can be considered a position of need. Only DT could be considered a position of strength and we spent our 2nd pick there.

I think the simple answer here is they stuck to their draft board, which didn't match ESPN's board, nor should it have. I think they also made a conscious decision that Sainristil+Sinnott was better than just CDJ, and thats just a thing we'll have to see play out. A lot of us had wanted them to trade down in the first, so why not in the 2nd? They obviously preferred two picks in the mid 2nd vs CDJ, so thats how their draft board guided them. If CDJ is a bust or just average or gets hurt a lot, and Mikey S becomes as stud, they look like geniuses. And if the opposite happens, then everyone will know it. We'll find out in a year or two. But for now, post draft grades are meaningless wastes of electrons that the media have to pump out to keep the clicks flowing.

 

[g00n]

Yes. You’ve got to double up, somewhere. Law of averages and all. I think they purposely tried to add one player at each position spot. Had they had 3 more picks, I’d wager we would’ve seen an OG, an OC, and a RB. All 12 spots hit—

It still may be a great draft, don’t get me wrong. However I’m not buying the “BPA at every pick” crap. That’s all.

They had 9 picks and took 2 DBs and 2 DLs, though. No RB, K, P. If a QB was BPA should they have taken another? I doubt it. There is no pure BPA. Positional need does factor in somewhat.

 

[usiel]

Washington Commanders

OTA Offseason Workouts:

May 14-15, May 17, May 21-22, May 24, June 4-5. June 7


Mandatory Minicamp:

June 11-13


Rookie Minicamp:

May 10-12

 

[Jags]

league consensus means shit especially since it seemed JD moved up after the season ended and some part of that was because they the team was leaning that way

NFL teams were scouting through the end of the season. Then their work gets compiled and evaluated. Lots of the media "experts" work that way, too. It makes sense that conventional wisdom compiled from the year before changes when the next evaluations are done. JD didn't move up because the media said he should. He moved up because he had a ridiculously good year.

nobody thought Sinnott was even close to the best tight end in what was considered a very weak TE draft class outside of Bowers .

He was TE2 on a lot of boards, and the things that leap out about him are his athleticism and versatility. So if the TE field was wide open after Bowers, then it was a "they're all good so pick your favorite" situation. This is where need always comes into play. Sinnott can line up at TE and FB, pick up blocks extremely well from either spot, and is an excellent receiver.

In a world where we might seriously need blocking help AND quick outlet options when things break down for Daniels, Sinnott is a pretty ideal pick.

Lastly — I did NOT like grabbing a player at literally almost every position. That doesn’t say “BPA” to me. I find it impossible to believe that the board rolled that way for them. Just so happening that the positions they needed ended up BPA, every time?

No, they made trades to make their position better line up with their board.

Newton was 100% BPA, because DT was nowhere near a "need" -- classic case of the team saying "holy shit, how is he still there?"

Yeah, I love how draft narrative shifts on a dime when it suits people. Drafting BPA is crucial until you draft a guy at a position you don't need, even when he's clearly the best player available. Then there's a cacophony of "We don't need that, WTF?!?!?!"

Our best DT was very loud about not wanting to be here until very recently. And he just clammed up; he didn't reverse his position. So yeah, drafting his replacement and giving Allen and Payne some relief in the meantime so they can actually earn those fat contracts? That seems like a good move to me.

Yes. You’ve got to double up, somewhere. Law of averages and all.

Pretty sure the actual experts don't treat it like a dice roll (either in Vegas or at the D&D table). They seem to believe that they can increase their hit rate if they emphasize certain characteristics. Theirs appear to be things like overall athleticism and leadership. And I think we can agree that that's at least more nuanced than something like the Al Davis "Draft all the fastest ones!" approach.

So even if they don't all become stars, the hope is that you can mold them into something useful and that they'll add depth value to the lineup, compete value in practice, and leadership value in the locker room . You hope that a pick turns into Puka Nacua in the NFL, but you'll settle for Jeremy Reaves if you have to. Maybe you can increase your hit rate slightly with insightful evaluations like those, but you can probably far more drastically decrease your miss rate, you know?

 

[Ridley Simon]

They had 9 picks and took 2 DBs and 2 DLs, though. No RB, K, P. If a QB was BPA should they have taken another? I doubt it. There is no pure BPA. Positional need does factor in somewhat.

That’s what I’m saying. No pure BPA, which flies against what many in here argue for.

Did they take BPA at certain positions? Absolutely (and I count CB/S as separate positions, as I do DE/DT and OT/IOL….totally different requirements for each).

I’d wager they had some other players ranked higher than the guys they took, but did not go BPA bc of needs. I mean, everyone would have had a cow, had they taken yet another DT, later on in the draft.

 

[Neil Racki]

Ahh lawd .. the dreaded "pure BPA" vs "hybrid BPA"

This is the ant circle death march for NFL fans.

There is no PURE BPA team out there. Even the Ravens who are tagged as the ultimate BPA team .. take team need into account w their grades. I think most teams go BPA, the difference is how much they weigh team need into the evaluation grade.

I think not going BPA is rare. Its like when we picked Forbes bc we need a corner and turnovers so we took him and is 83 grade when there were 91 grade OG or DE available.

Taking Jamin Davis bc we wanted speed linebacker when he had a 81 grade instead of taking Asante Samuel who had a 90 grade. (these are random hypotehtical grades im assigning w zero thought as to accuracy and more exemplatory)

 

[kicksavedave]

One of the more insightful analysis I've seen yet. Redskin Legend Jordan Palmer.

 

[usiel]

 

[kicksavedave]

Ahh lawd .. the dreaded "pure BPA" vs "hybrid BPA"

This is the ant circle death march for NFL fans.

There is no PURE BPA team out there. Even the Ravens who are tagged as the ultimate BPA team .. take team need into account w their grades. I think most teams go BPA, the difference is how much they weigh team need into the evaluation grade.

I think not going BPA is rare. Its like when we picked Forbes bc we need a corner and turnovers so we took him and is 83 grade when there were 91 grade OG or DE available.

Taking Jamin Davis bc we wanted speed linebacker when he had a 81 grade instead of taking Asante Samuel who had a 90 grade. (these are random hypotehtical grades im assigning w zero thought as to accuracy and more exemplatory)

I think its becoming apparent when teams talk BPA, and need, beyond the first round they are rarely talking about a filling a hole in the starting lineup with a draft pick. They're talking about how the player fits into their depth chart, who could possibly step into a starting role in 2 or 3 years. They look at when their current starters are becoming free agents and plan a year or two down the road.

Mock drafts look purely at existing needs and pretend that a rookie 3rd or 4th or 5th round pick is automatically better than the starters at some position. That's always been nonsense. Its fun, but its a terrible way to build a team. Taking the best player, who might not have a starting role this year, but who, if he pans out, will be a plus starter in a couple years, makes more sense.

Also I would caution against comparing draft picks to media and draft site consensus grades. Pre draft grades don't factor in what system a player is best at, and pro teams big boards will vary widely from the media big boards all over the place. Tons of examples this year:

Brendan Rice and Jeremiah Trotter Jr were looked at as 3rd or 4th round players - Rice went in the 7th and Trotter in the late 5th. JaTaveon Sanders, who we all mocked to the Skins 1000 times, was a 2nd rounder in most every mock. Sanders went 4th round. Tip Reiman was the 8th TE in the NFL board, he was the 3rd TE drafted. Troy Franklin was 2 WRs ahead of Pearsall, but Franklin went in the 4th and Pearsall went in the 1st. And we could go on and on. Point is NFL GMs and ESPN talking heads rarely see things the same way. Which is why I hate post draft grades more than I hate onions, which is a LOT!

 

[ynotcaps]

That is nine minutes, twenty-five seconds of face-hurtin' smile, right there! Great share @usiel !

 

[Roric]

"You're a dog *** competitor" DQ keeps saying this and i'm still not sure what that word is

 

[usiel]

"You're a dog *** competitor" DQ keeps saying this and i'm still not sure what that word is

I was puzzled also!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

That…..is so cool.

"You're a dog *** competitor" DQ keeps saying this and i'm still not sure what that word is

Ass…..dog ass competitor….

 

[HTFN]

"You're a dog *** competitor" DQ keeps saying this and i'm still not sure what that word is

I'm so glad I wasn't the only one, that made me laugh so hard.

It's got to be ass, but it would be so funny if he's on draft day calls like "you're a dogshit competitor but we're excited to coach you"

Maybe the dog ass works harder than the rest of the dog? It definitely does on pitbulls and boxers

 

[dreadpirateroberts]

RFK Stadium cleared for demolition after 5 years of sitting empty - WTOP News

D.C.’s Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Stadium has been cleared for demolition after the National Park Service found that the demolition would have no negative impact on the environment surrounding RFK campus.

wtop.com

It’s going to be interesting to see how ownership proceeds with their plans. We’ve already seen public pushback about taxpayer funded arenas/stadiums in Alexandria, Chicago, and Kansas City

 

[usiel]

RFK Stadium cleared for demolition after 5 years of sitting empty - WTOP News

D.C.’s Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Stadium has been cleared for demolition after the National Park Service found that the demolition would have no negative impact on the environment surrounding RFK campus.

wtop.com

It’s going to be interesting to see how ownership proceeds with their plans. We’ve already seen public pushback about taxpayer funded arenas/stadiums in Alexandria, Chicago, and Kansas City

Next step is the senate passing that bill that the house did that would be the next step to open up actual negotiations. Still might be a couple of years before serious negotiation so who knows what the situ will be for the DC gov..

 

[Neil Racki]

RFK Stadium cleared for demolition after 5 years of sitting empty - WTOP News

D.C.’s Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Stadium has been cleared for demolition after the National Park Service found that the demolition would have no negative impact on the environment surrounding RFK campus.

wtop.com

It’s going to be interesting to see how ownership proceeds with their plans. We’ve already seen public pushback about taxpayer funded arenas/stadiums in Alexandria, Chicago, and Kansas City

it gives me a slight boost of happiness when I see your posts and your name is Dread Pirate Roberts, your avatar is Dread Pirate Roberts and your location is the Seven Seas. Im glad you did not go with the Fire Swamp as your location. That would be too much of an ode to the movie/book and take away from the fact you are Dread Pirate Roberts .. who just so happened to be in that movie but that movie does not define you.

The randomness .. the childhood nostalgia .. the full profile commitment, it all works

 

[John Price]

'It's easy to see why': How Jayden Daniels became the Commanders' new hope at QB

The selection of Daniels was months in the making. What sold Washington on making him the face of a new era in D.C.?

www.espn.com

good read. he was on the plane after being drafted studying the playbook and practicing his footwork

I think he can be a very special player