2024 Draft - Overagers to watch

[MS]

Who are the 7 NHL regulars? Even if I count Nutivaara and Simon, which would be very generous given the fact that they were regulars for maybe one season each, I still don't get to 7. Maybe I've forgotten about somebody.

Among the NHL regulars, Moser and Koskinen were 2nd rounders, Fredrik Andersen a 3rd round pick.

Moser
Koskinen
Andersen
Simon
Arvidsson
Nutivaara
Aho

Nutivaara was basically an NHLer for 5 seasons before his career was ended through injury.

Simon was a regular NHLer for 3 seasons and on NHL rosters for 4 full seasons.

 

[Hinterland]

Moser
Koskinen
Andersen
Simon
Arvidsson
Nutivaara
Aho

Nutivaara was basically an NHLer for 5 seasons before his career was ended through injury.

Simon was a regular NHLer for 3 seasons and on NHL rosters for 4 full seasons.

You must be living in a different world than me because in mine, Aho has been healthy scratched in every season. The same goes for Simon and Nutivaara. They may have had one season each without multiple healthy scratches. They are/were pretty much always fringe NHLers, not regulars.

 

[MS]

You must be living in a different world than me because in mine, Aho has been healthy scratched in every season. The same goes for Simon and Nutivaara. They may have had one season each without multiple healthy scratches. They are/were pretty much always fringe NHLers, not regulars.

If you're playing 70+ games/season to me you're a regular player.

These weren't guys getting into 35 games at <10 minutes/game as 13th forwards/7-8D.

All spent multiple consecutive years on NHL rosters.

 

[Hinterland]

If you're playing 70+ games/season to me you're a regular player.

These weren't guys getting into 35 games at <10 minutes/game as 13th forwards/7-8D.

All spent multiple consecutive years on NHL rosters.

That's a very generous definition. If teams knew about their ceiling they wouldn't have drafted them. They were always fringe NHLers, never impact players. Which is why they were sat regularly. You can claim similar players off waivers pretty much on a daily basis. But it's okay. We can leave it at that. If we're incredibly generous I guess we can say that in 20 years, seven 21yo drafted prospects turned into NHLers. That doesn't fill me with confidence that of all people, the undersized Russian 21yo goalie with 50 KHL games is gonna get drafted, let alone have an impact at NHL level. Nothing is impossible but it's an unlikely scenario. I think Moysevich is a much more interesting project. Much bigger, 1,5 years younger and much better than Nabokov was at that time.

 

[MS]

That's a very generous definition. If teams knew about their ceiling they wouldn't have drafted them. They were always fringe NHLers, never impact players. Which is why they were sat regularly. You can claim similar players off waivers pretty much on a daily basis. But it's okay. We can leave it at that. If we're incredibly generous I guess we can say that in 20 years, seven 21yo drafted prospects turned into NHLers. That doesn't fill me with confidence that of all people, the undersized Russian 21yo goalie with 50 KHL games is gonna get drafted, let alone have an impact at NHL level. Nothing is impossible but it's an unlikely scenario. I think Moysevich is a much more interesting project. Much bigger, 1,5 years younger and much better than Nabokov was at that time.

I'm not sure what your expectations are for mid-late round picks.

Swedish Sebastian Aho went 139th overall in 2017. In the last 78 picks of that draft after Aho, there are two players who have had (marginally) better NHL careers – Morgan Barron and Nick Perbix. All 3 are depth players.

NYI got literally a 95th percentile result out of that pick and 7 years later they still have a serviceable NHL player on their roster for that 5th round pick. And you think they wouldn’t make that pick again?

Likewise Nuutivara was a 7th round pick and Columbus got basically 3 years of regular roster play out of it from a guy on an ELC. Great result, until they gave him a $10 million contract.

Nobody is getting big hits out of the last 4 rounds of the draft. They’re basically irrelevant and if the NHL eliminated rounds 4-7 tomorrow, nothing would really change. As a draft watcher I love following them and tracking players but I can separate ‘I enjoy this and find it interesting’ from ‘this actually matters’.

And if you get a cheap depth player from a 5th? That’s a nice little win and every GM would take that in a heartbeat.

__________

As for Nabokov :

You still seem stuck on ‘50 games is a small sample size for a 21 y/o goalie’ when it’s the exact opposite.

Here’s a list of high-level pro games for every 2003-born goalie I could find anywhere in the world with 10+ games at that level.

Ilya Nabokov – 43 (KHL, +17 playoff games now)
Thomas Milic – 29 (AHL)
Carl Lindbom – 27 (SHL)
Tomas Suchanek – 26 (AHL)
Kevin Pasche – 20 (Swiss)
Dmitri Gazmin – 13 (KHL)

Relative to his age group (drafted or not), he actually has the *biggest* sample size of excellent play, the highest level of play (.930+), and at the highest level of competition. To write him off as ‘small sample size’ is literally about as backward as it gets.

Moysevich is obviously getting drafted this year, probably pretty highly, and isn’t really relevant to the conversation. One getting picked has nothing to do with whether the other will be drafted.

 

[Hinterland]

I'm not sure what your expectations are for mid-late round picks.

Swedish Sebastian Aho went 139th overall in 2017. In the last 78 picks of that draft after Aho, there are two players who have had (marginally) better NHL careers – Morgan Barron and Nick Perbix. All 3 are depth players.

NYI got literally a 95th percentile result out of that pick and 7 years later they still have a serviceable NHL player on their roster for that 5th round pick. And you think they wouldn’t make that pick again?

Likewise Nuutivara was a 7th round pick and Columbus got basically 3 years of regular roster play out of it from a guy on an ELC. Great result, until they gave him a $10 million contract.

Nobody is getting big hits out of the last 4 rounds of the draft. They’re basically irrelevant and if the NHL eliminated rounds 4-7 tomorrow, nothing would really change. As a draft watcher I love following them and tracking players but I can separate ‘I enjoy this and find it interesting’ from ‘this actually matters’.

And if you get a cheap depth player from a 5th? That’s a nice little win and every GM would take that in a heartbeat.

__________

As for Nabokov :

You still seem stuck on ‘50 games is a small sample size for a 21 y/o goalie’ when it’s the exact opposite.

Here’s a list of high-level pro games for every 2003-born goalie I could find anywhere in the world with 10+ games at that level.

Ilya Nabokov – 43 (KHL, +17 playoff games now)
Thomas Milic – 29 (AHL)
Carl Lindbom – 27 (SHL)
Tomas Suchanek – 26 (AHL)
Kevin Pasche – 20 (Swiss)
Dmitri Gazmin – 13 (KHL)

Relative to his age group (drafted or not), he actually has the *biggest* sample size of excellent play, the highest level of play (.930+), and at the highest level of competition. To write him off as ‘small sample size’ is literally about as backward as it gets.

Moysevich is obviously getting drafted this year, probably pretty highly, and isn’t really relevant to the conversation. One getting picked has nothing to do with whether the other will be drafted.

All of those goalies you listed are poor. Piss poor in fact. So that comparison doesn't exactly qualify Nabokov as a high flyer. The only one with some kind of upside is Suchanek and even he did not get drafted.

 

[MS]

All of those goalies you listed are poor. Piss poor in fact. So that comparison doesn't exactly qualify Nabokov as a high flyer. The only one with some kind of upside is Suchanek and even he did not get drafted.

You still are not grasping how unusual it is for a goalie to play that many games that well at that level at that age, and why trying to write it off as a 'small sample size' is incorrect.

Doubly so when you factor in his .940 playoff performance and how the guy is now 1 game away from carrying his team to the league finals.

 

[DougBodger]

Jere Lassila? In every world tournament he is in people talk about him like he'd be a top 100 pick but he's been passed over I think twice now.

 

[Hinterland]

You still are not grasping how unusual it is for a goalie to play that many games that well at that level at that age, and why trying to write it off as a 'small sample size' is incorrect.

Doubly so when you factor in his .940 playoff performance and how the guy is now 1 game away from carrying his team to the league finals.

We won't ever agree I guess. Personally, I'll be shocked if Nabokov is ever any useful at NHL level. I'd actually be surprised if he's drafted but I wouldn't rule it out. It's possible some team is gonna take a punt. We'll have to wait and see how it shakes out.

The fact that you listed Kevin Pasche really made my day though. The most brutal goalie to represent Switzerland in quite a while. Did you ever watch him? Almost a midget and literally just bad at everything. Watching that guy you don't know whether to laugh or cry. It's kinda funny but also sad at the same time. Like Alessio Beglieri was a revelation compared

 

[majormajor]

You must be living in a different world than me because in mine, Aho has been healthy scratched in every season. The same goes for Simon and Nutivaara. They may have had one season each without multiple healthy scratches. They are/were pretty much always fringe NHLers, not regulars.

FWIW Nutivaara was a good regular NHLer before his hips degenerated.

 

[majormajor]

I think folks aren't taking the level of Pulkkinen's performance seriously enough.

Feel free to correct me on this, I usually don't watch Liiga and most of what I've watched from Pulkkinen is just this scouting report from Simon St. Laurent.

I think if Anton Silayev showed this kind of skill at this time next year, people would say he massively improved. Pulkkinen is showing everything you want to see - 6'6 mean defender, good defensive technique, not Silayev level defensive skating but it looks fine to me, and the offensive reads and elusive movement he has looks like what you want from a future #1 PPQB and #1 transition D.

Based on what I've seen I see a player who should be in the discussion with the top six highly ranked D in this class. So what am I missing?

 

[QJL]

I think folks aren't taking the level of Pulkkinen's performance seriously enough.

Feel free to correct me on this, I usually don't watch Liiga and most of what I've watched from Pulkkinen is just this scouting report from Simon St. Laurent.

I think if Anton Silayev showed this kind of skill at this time next year, people would say he massively improved. Pulkkinen is showing everything you want to see - 6'6 mean defender, good defensive technique, not Silayev level defensive skating but it looks fine to me, and the offensive reads and elusive movement he has looks like what you want from a future #1 PPQB and #1 transition D.

Based on what I've seen I see a player who should be in the discussion with the top six highly ranked D in this class. So what am I missing?

You’re not missing anything. He should be drafted in the first half of the 1st round.

 

[MS]

We won't ever agree I guess. Personally, I'll be shocked if Nabokov is ever any useful at NHL level. I'd actually be surprised if he's drafted but I wouldn't rule it out. It's possible some team is gonna take a punt. We'll have to wait and see how it shakes out.

The fact that you listed Kevin Pasche really made my day though. The most brutal goalie to represent Switzerland in quite a while. Did you ever watch him? Almost a midget and literally just bad at everything. Watching that guy you don't know whether to laugh or cry. It's kinda funny but also sad at the same time. Like Alessio Beglieri was a revelation compared

You're missing the point. I'm not saying that Pasche is good. Guy is 5'9 and obviously not an NHL prospect.

You are continuously saying that '50 games of KHL play' is a small sample size for a goalie in his 20 y/o season. And it just isn't. And the list that Pasche was on was to show how few guys that age actually play that many games in a good league and how relatively large Nabokov's sample size actually is.

Nabokov is probably the best 2003-born goalie in the world right now, including the dozens of guys taken in the past couple drafts. He's having one of the best age-20 seasons for any goalie - drafted or not - in the last 20 years. He *should* get drafted this year unless he's telegraphing to teams that he has no interest in coming to NA any time in the near future.

 

[Hinterland]

You're missing the point. I'm not saying that Pasche is good. Guy is 5'9 and obviously not an NHL prospect.

You are continuously saying that '50 games of KHL play' is a small sample size for a goalie in his 20 y/o season. And it just isn't. And the list that Pasche was on was to show how few guys that age actually play that many games in a good league and how relatively large Nabokov's sample size actually is.

Nabokov is probably the best 2003-born goalie in the world right now, including the dozens of guys taken in the past couple drafts. He's having one of the best age-20 seasons for any goalie - drafted or not - in the last 20 years. He *should* get drafted this year unless he's telegraphing to teams that he has no interest in coming to NA any time in the near future.

I understand what you're trying to tell me...I just disagree. That's not a good enough sample size for a 21yo who wouldn't even be draft eligible anymore if he was North American. The guy is small on top of all of this which makes it even more of an unlikely scenario. And if most other 03 born goalies suck as well then that still doesn't mean a thing.

Again, we'll see how it shakes out. This discussion is useless. We'll have to wait. I'd be shocked if he becomes a noteworthy prospect in NHL context.

 

[MS]

I understand what you're trying to tell me...I just disagree. That's not a good enough sample size for a 21yo who wouldn't even be draft eligible anymore if he was North American. The guy is small on top of all of this which makes it even more of an unlikely scenario. And if most other 03 born goalies suck as well then that still doesn't mean a thing.

Again, we'll see how it shakes out. This discussion is useless. We'll have to wait. I'd be shocked if he becomes a noteworthy prospect in NHL context.

It's literally a better sample size than EVERY SINGLE PLAYER BORN IN AN ENTIRE YEAR. There are maybe 5 or 8 guys in the last decade who have a bigger sample size of high-level play than this at this age.

You are not grasping how unusual it is to see a 20 y/o goalie drop a .930 as a KHL starter and then crank it up to a .940 to lead his team to a league finals.

If he was 6'4 and doing this, he'd go in the first two rounds of the draft and be neck-and-neck with Wallstadt and Askarov as the best goalie prospect in hockey. Obviously his size is a question but the level of performance absolutely should get him drafted.

He was also .925, .932, .933 in his last 3 years in the MHL so this isn't like it was a guy who sucked at lower levels coming out of absolutely nowhere. And the sample size is at like 150 games across all levels at .930+ over 4 years.

 

[Quinnisinoverhishead]

Francesco Dell'Elce - 5th in the BCHL in scoring amognst defencemen... 1st among '05s.

 

[Hinterland]

It's literally a better sample size than EVERY SINGLE PLAYER BORN IN AN ENTIRE YEAR. There are maybe 5 or 8 guys in the last decade who have a bigger sample size of high-level play than this at this age.

You are not grasping how unusual it is to see a 20 y/o goalie drop a .930 as a KHL starter and then crank it up to a .940 to lead his team to a league finals.

If he was 6'4 and doing this, he'd go in the first two rounds of the draft and be neck-and-neck with Wallstadt and Askarov as the best goalie prospect in hockey. Obviously his size is a question but the level of performance absolutely should get him drafted.

He was also .925, .932, .933 in his last 3 years in the MHL so this isn't like it was a guy who sucked at lower levels coming out of absolutely nowhere. And the sample size is at like 150 games across all levels at .930+ over 4 years.

He's 21, not 20. CHL overager territory. Not draft eligible in NA.

I'm European myself so I understand that it's unusual but it's not spectacular either and probably not enough to convince NHL teams they missed something for three years straight. Also, the KHL is no longer what it once was and the guy is small.

No need to shout at me with capital letters. Like I said. I understand what you're trying to tell me but I just disagree. I don't think Nabokov will ever play a role for any NHL team, whether he's drafted or not (probably the latter). It's a useless argument. The future will tell.

 

[MS]

He's 21, not 20. CHL overager territory. Not draft eligible in NA.

I'm European myself so I understand that it's unusual but it's not spectacular either and probably not enough to convince NHL teams they missed something for three years straight. Also, the KHL is no longer what it once was and the guy is small.

No need to shout at me with capital letters. Like I said. I understand what you're trying to tell me but I just disagree. I don't think Nabokov will ever play a role for any NHL team, whether he's drafted or not (probably the latter). It's a useless argument. The future will tell.

He's in his 20 y/o season which is how these things are generally discussed.

If you want to argue technique or size or anything that will actually limit him, I'm all ears. But the sample size argument is total nonsense. Again, this player literally has one of the largest sample sizes you will ever see of elite play at high levels for a player his age, drafted or undrafted.

 

[Hinterland]

He's in his 20 y/o season which is how these things are generally discussed.

If you want to argue technique or size or anything that will actually limit him, I'm all ears. But the sample size argument is total nonsense. Again, this player literally has one of the largest sample sizes you will ever see of elite play at high levels for a player his age, drafted or undrafted.

It's okay. Just let it go and have a cup of tea. We can revisit this discussion in three years time or so.

 

[Parliament]

It's okay. Just let it go and have a cup of tea. We can revisit this discussion in three years time or so.

As a third party who's read your comments (and @MS ) I'm reasonably confident one of two things is going on:

1) You in fact do not understand what MS is telling you - in that, Nabokov's sample size of games played at his age is impressive. That's it. This was not an opinion and if I understood correctly, it's based entirely on historic numbers/performance. As in, if I said: "Wayne Gretzky has recorded the most points in an NHL season, with 215 points in 1985-86." this is not an opinion,.. additionally, MS does not seem to be suggesting that Nabokov's large sample size of games played (relatively speaking) will mean he's drafted and will find success at the NHL level.

2) You do understand what MS is saying, but you don't care and/or your communication skills are failing you. For instance:

"I understand what you're trying to tell me...I just disagree. That's not a good enough sample size for a 21yo who wouldn't even be draft eligible anymore if he was North American. The guy is small on top of all of this which makes it even more of an unlikely scenario. And if most other 03 born goalies suck as well then that still doesn't mean a thing."​

Purple: opinion...
Orange: not relevant to the sample size discussion
Red: not relevant to the sample size discussion
Green: not relevant to the sample size discussion

 

[Hinterland]

As a third party who's read your comments (and @MS ) I'm reasonably confident one of two things is going on:

1) You in fact do not understand what MS is telling you - in that, Nabokov's sample size of games played at his age is impressive. That's it. This was not an opinion and if I understood correctly, it's based entirely on historic numbers/performance. As in, if I said: "Wayne Gretzky has recorded the most points in an NHL season, with 215 points in 1985-86." this is not an opinion,.. additionally, MS does not seem to be suggesting that Nabokov's large sample size of games played (relatively speaking) will mean he's drafted and will find success at the NHL level.

2) You do understand what MS is saying, but you don't care and/or your communication skills are failing you. For instance:

"I understand what you're trying to tell me...I just disagree. That's not a good enough sample size for a 21yo who wouldn't even be draft eligible anymore if he was North American. The guy is small on top of all of this which makes it even more of an unlikely scenario. And if most other 03 born goalies suck as well then that still doesn't mean a thing."​

Purple: opinion...
Orange: not relevant to the sample size discussion
Red: not relevant to the sample size discussion
Green: not relevant to the sample size discussion

Uhm...okay? I guess?
I don't know what you're trying to tell me. There's nothing I can add to that. I understand that it's unusual for a 21yo goalie to play 60 games at the highest level in Europe but it's no sensation either. Like I said already I'm European myself. I know how European leagues work and I'm not gonna colour every random 21yo playing 60 games an NHL prospect. That's not how it works. He's not the first 21yo kid to play 60 games and he won't be the last. It's unusual but it happens all the time. I think it's not enough of a sample size to have NHL teams change their mind. They passed on this small kid for three years straight already. You think 60 games are gonna change anything? Possible, but I don't think so. And even if some team does take a chance on this guy I'm still sure he won't be the next big thing in the NHL. But again, it's a stupid discussion. Only the future will tell who's right or wrong.

 

[Parliament]

Uhm...okay? I guess?
I don't know what you're trying to tell me. There's nothing I can add to that. I understand that it's unusual for a 21yo goalie to play 60 games at the highest level in Europe but it's no sensation either. Like I said already I'm European myself. I know how European leagues work and I'm not gonna colour every random 21yo playing 60 games an NHL prospect. That's not how it works. He's not the first 21yo kid to play 60 games and he won't be the last. It's unusual but it happens all the time. I think it's not enough of a sample size to have NHL teams change their mind. They passed on this small kid for three years straight already. You think 60 games are gonna change anything? Possible, but I don't think so. And even if some team does take a chance on this guy I'm still sure he won't be the next big thing in the NHL. But again, it's a stupid discussion. Only the future will tell who's right or wrong.

Gotcha, so it's a communication thing.