Player Discussion: 2023 Vezina Finalist Connor Hellebuyck

[Buffdog]

Want to place a wager on which team will perform better in 2023-24?

My guess is that they'll be roughly similar, depending on their goaltending. This is the part where the two trajectories are roughly intersecting, though trending in different directions... Skippy

 

[DRW204]

I thought this was going to be a Matt Murray joke, I was pleasantly surprised.

i was sitting on that one for a while

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The Sabres kind of remind me of the 2016-17 Jets. This may get convoluted, BUT if we had the option to trade for a goalie that is the equivalent of present-day Hellebuyck to mentor rookie-Hellebuyck for one year, and the cost was Jack Roslovic and a 2nd round pick, you do that all day long even without an extension. Looking back, 2016-17 was a mess with Pavelec playing for the Moose and getting called up to poop the bed for a few games, the Hutchinson drama, and then Helley struggling mightily all season long (after a very solid 26 game stretch in 2015-16, showing far more than Levi has to date). I think the Sabres are heading for something like that if they think Levi will magically be ready to lead their team to the playoffs.

I still look at 2016-17 as a bit of a lost season, because we had substantially the same team that made the conference finals the following year. With stable goaltending, that team could have made noise in those playoffs and had even more experience for the conference finals run. I feel the same about the Sabres this upcoming season. Given how strong their prospect pool is, Savoie or Kulich are not huge losses.

Give me Kulich and 1 or 2 lesser pieces and I am happy. 1 can be a cap move if they choose.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Nemec is a great prospect but he is still a few years away from being anywhere close to Marino and they are now in their contention window. I've read enough NJ fan posts by now to realize they regard Marino maybe a shade less than we feel about JoMo around here. No way you will ever get them to agree trading Marino is a good idea.

Oh, absolutely. They seem to regard Marino at least that highly, maybe more.
No way they agree to that.

Nemec is quite young but he had a very successful season in the AHL last year, at 18 YO. He was a 2nd OA choice. It is not unusual for 2 OA players to jump straight to the NHL. That is not saying he would = Marino. But he would probably do just fine filling in for him.

But I will continue to think it would be a good idea until I see otherwise.

 

[cbcwpg]

Friedman began by saying he has had some people tell him they “wouldn’t be surprised if Hellebuyck starts the year in Winnipeg.”

Added it isn’t just about trading Hellebuyck but then the question is whether they have an adequate replacement for him.

Feels teams are playing a bit of a “poker game, a waiting game” and reiterated that it “wouldn’t be a huge shock if Hellebuyck started the year in Winnipeg”.

****

Well... if the Jets don't trade him before the season starts then he is starting the year in Winnipeg. Duh!

Based on comments and actions from the Jets they want to "re-whatever" but still want to make the playoffs. So the real question I want answered is.... what do the Jets do with Helly towards the end of next season if the Jets are a playoff team with Helly still playing here... and the trade deadline is looming?

 

[Gil Fisher]

I think Chevy probably still has 3 or more teams expressing some level of interest. When you have 3, you can slow play the summer and be patient. when you're down to 2, you have to accelerate the process and get a deal done or before you know it you are down to 1, with little leverage.

NJ is interesting. I see people arguing that they should trade Marino and go with youth (Nemec), but the alternative is to go with Schmid over Hellebuyck. I know there's Vanecek as a replacement level back up for the net, but there's probably similar on D. Personally, I think they can afford to play a bit more of a patient game than say a Buffalo, because Schmid seems much closer than Levi as a potential non-Helly solution in net. On the other hand, if they could get Helly for Vanecek, Holtz and a 1st, they would surely have to do that.

And that is why there is probably no immediate action, Chevy doesn't see much use in Vanecek and wants more than a pick and prospect (albeit one that would be our best prospect according to Scott Wheeler).

As an aside, could NJ trade dead money (Corey Schneider) to us as part of the trade, without the cash component (which presumably has already been paid).

 

[JetsUK]

Given all the chatter about the declining importance of the "star" goalie in the NHL following the varying success of good tandem teams, thought this might be interesting to some folk. As go running backs go NHL goalies? Seems like very different positions in very different sports, but it's a talking point.

Barkley considered sitting out season as NFL teams shun running backs

A frustrated Saquon Barkley considered sitting out the 2023 season if he couldn’t get a new contract from the New York Giants

www.theguardian.com

 

[Huffer]

You sound like a Devils fan.

It makes more sense for them to try to win with Helle and without Marino than it does for them to try to win with Marino and without Helle. IMO, of course.

If Marino is gone they have Nemec. Its not like they would have a big hole on RD. The hole would be filled by a rookie, but a very talented one.

Nope just realistic. Nemec is an elite RD prospect, but doubtful he is going to come in next year and replace what Marino is tasked to do.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Nope just realistic. Nemec is an elite RD prospect, but doubtful he is going to come in next year and replace what Marino is tasked to do.

Not if they keep Marino he isn't. But he would if Marino was traded.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Friedman began by saying he has had some people tell him they “wouldn’t be surprised if Hellebuyck starts the year in Winnipeg.”

Added it isn’t just about trading Hellebuyck but then the question is whether they have an adequate replacement for him.

Feels teams are playing a bit of a “poker game, a waiting game” and reiterated that it “wouldn’t be a huge shock if Hellebuyck started the year in Winnipeg”.

****

Well... if the Jets don't trade him before the season starts then he is starting the year in Winnipeg. Duh!

Based on comments and actions from the Jets they want to "re-whatever" but still want to make the playoffs. So the real question I want answered is.... what do the Jets do with Helly towards the end of next season if the Jets are a playoff team with Helly still playing here... and the trade deadline is looming?

I think you know the answer to that one. The Jets do nothing - he walks.

Just making the PO seems to be the goal. Mediocrity is acceptable.

 

[ps241]

Friedman began by saying he has had some people tell him they “wouldn’t be surprised if Hellebuyck starts the year in Winnipeg.”

Added it isn’t just about trading Hellebuyck but then the question is whether they have an adequate replacement for him.

Feels teams are playing a bit of a “poker game, a waiting game” and reiterated that it “wouldn’t be a huge shock if Hellebuyck started the year in Winnipeg”.

****

Well... if the Jets don't trade him before the season starts then he is starting the year in Winnipeg. Duh!

Based on comments and actions from the Jets they want to "re-whatever" but still want to make the playoffs. So the real question I want answered is.... what do the Jets do with Helly towards the end of next season if the Jets are a playoff team with Helly still playing here... and the trade deadline is looming?

St Louis did this last year with Tank and ROR. I think Army had no intention of keeping them even if they had a playoff level team. He was just maximizing the return IMO.

Chevy has his strengths and weaknesses but one thing he has displayed consistently is patience. I would be surprised if Kevin walks Connor out the door after next season.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think Chevy probably still has 3 or more teams expressing some level of interest. When you have 3, you can slow play the summer and be patient. when you're down to 2, you have to accelerate the process and get a deal done or before you know it you are down to 1, with little leverage.

NJ is interesting. I see people arguing that they should trade Marino and go with youth (Nemec), but the alternative is to go with Schmid over Hellebuyck. I know there's Vanecek as a replacement level back up for the net, but there's probably similar on D. Personally, I think they can afford to play a bit more of a patient game than say a Buffalo, because Schmid seems much closer than Levi as a potential non-Helly solution in net. On the other hand, if they could get Helly for Vanecek, Holtz and a 1st, they would surely have to do that.

And that is why there is probably no immediate action, Chevy doesn't see much use in Vanecek and wants more than a pick and prospect (albeit one that would be our best prospect according to Scott Wheeler).

As an aside, could NJ trade dead money (Corey Schneider) to us as part of the trade, without the cash component (which presumably has already been paid).

I've been arguing for Marino from NJD but even if they would part with him, they are not my first choice for a trading partner. I prefer to get a C in return for Hellebuyck, much as I think we need a top 4 RD.

I would way prefer Vanecek, Holtz and 1st to seeing Helle walk next July 1.

Holtz would be our highest drafted prospect. I don't agree he would be our best. His production stagnated from D+0 to D+1. D+2 he came to NA and had a good AHL season but probably about equivalent to his previous 2 seasons. D+3 he got into a few more NHL games. His AHL production actually dropped slightly. He doesn't appear to have really progressed at all since his draft year. Probably rates no higher than 5th among our prospects.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

St Louis did this last year with Tank and ROR. I think Army had no intention of keeping them even if they had a playoff level team. He was just maximizing the return IMO.

Chevy has his strengths and weaknesses but one thing he has displayed consistently is patience. I would be surprised if Kevin walks Connor out the door after next season.

Perhaps not - but if it came to that scenario - that is, in a PO spot with the TD approaching I don't think there is any realistic chance of him tossing the PO opportunity by trading Helle. I would be way beyond surprised.

I'm sure that he is trying right now to avoid that situation ever developing. Will he accept the best offer available if it is disappointing?

 

[Huffer]

Not if they keep Marino he isn't. But he would if Marino was traded.

We'll have to just disagree and move on. IMO, even if they moved Marino, I don't see Nemec being able to play the minutes Marino plays, and not the defensive assignments. Nemec has all the probability in the world at being pretty great, but if you are a team thinking they want to win a cup next year, Having Hamilton, Miller, and 19 year old Nemec on the right isn't as good as having Marino in there. I don't see any of the other 3 taking the defensive responsibilities that Marino does. Certainly not Hamilton, and I wouldn't want to count on any of the 3 to take the defensive role of Marino for a playoff run through the east. I think the impact of losing Marino is greater than the addition of Hellebucyk. And that doesn't include the bargain contract Marino has for 4 more years as other players like Mercer need new deals.

 

[ps241]

Perhaps not - but if it came to that scenario - that is, in a PO spot with the TD approaching I don't think there is any realistic chance of him tossing the PO opportunity by trading Helle. I would be way beyond surprised.

I'm sure that he is trying right now to avoid that situation ever developing. Will he accept the best offer available if it is disappointing?

I like it Mort we are on opposite sides of that topic which is fun. If it comes down to the deadline this will be fun to review.

I do agree I don’t think Chevy will want it to come to that but if the trade value isn’t there who knows.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We'll have to just disagree and move on. IMO, even if they moved Marino, I don't see Nemec being able to play the minutes Marino plays, and not the defensive assignments. Nemec has all the probability in the world at being pretty great, but if you are a team thinking they want to win a cup next year, Having Hamilton, Miller, and 19 year old Nemec on the right isn't as good as having Marino in there. I don't see any of the other 3 taking the defensive responsibilities that Marino does. Certainly not Hamilton, and I wouldn't want to count on any of the 3 to take the defensive role of Marino for a playoff run through the east. I think the impact of losing Marino is greater than the addition of Hellebucyk. And that doesn't include the bargain contract Marino has for 4 more years as other players like Mercer need new deals.

Don't disagree that having Ham, Marino, Miller is better for them than having Ham, Nemec, Miller. Nemec would provide less defense, more offense but still not likely = Marino yet.

It is the addition of Hellebuyck over any combination of Vanecek/Schmid that we disagree on. I think it would be quite a bit more significant than the difference between Marino & Nemec. Just a matter of opinion at this point. It is an unprovable hypothetical. Also somewhat unpredictable. Helle could have an off year and Vanecek could have a career season. NJD could win the Cup without Helle. Of course, they also could win it with Helle and without Marino.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I like it Mort we are on opposite sides of that topic which is fun. If it comes down to the deadline this will be fun to review.

I do agree I don’t think Chevy will want it to come to that but if the trade value isn’t there who knows.

I know NJD fans were strongly opposed to my suggestion of Vanecek, Marino but I wonder if they would accept Vanecek, Holtz, 1st? Seemed like there was at least some willingness to go that way. If they would accept that, would Chevy?

Personally, I would find that a little disappointing, getting neither a C nor a top 4 RHD but I would take it if that was the best offer after 2 months of shopping.

Might even be able to flip that return to Buffalo for Kulich (+?). From Sabres POV, Vanecek would be an upgrade in goal, a potential mentor for Levi and only under contract for 2 years. Holtz would look good as a RW prospect with them probably losing Olofsson and Okposo in a year. And what team can't use a 1st, even a late one?

 

[jetsforever]

Friedman began by saying he has had some people tell him they “wouldn’t be surprised if Hellebuyck starts the year in Winnipeg.”

Added it isn’t just about trading Hellebuyck but then the question is whether they have an adequate replacement for him.

Feels teams are playing a bit of a “poker game, a waiting game” and reiterated that it “wouldn’t be a huge shock if Hellebuyck started the year in Winnipeg”.

****

Well... if the Jets don't trade him before the season starts then he is starting the year in Winnipeg. Duh!

Based on comments and actions from the Jets they want to "re-whatever" but still want to make the playoffs. So the real question I want answered is.... what do the Jets do with Helly towards the end of next season if the Jets are a playoff team with Helly still playing here... and the trade deadline is looming?

The absolute best case would be to load up at the deadline, go on a deep run, and convince Helle that we can win and re-sign him.

 

[Gil Fisher]

I know NJD fans were strongly opposed to my suggestion of Vanecek, Marino but I wonder if they would accept Vanecek, Holtz, 1st?

not too interested in Vanecek, but flip Holtz and Heinola and a 2nd to Philly for Konecny?

Helly, Heinola and a 2nd for Konecny and a 1st?

 

[Huffer]

not too interested in Vanecek, but flip Holtz and Heinola and a 2nd to Philly for Konecny?

Helly, Heinola and a 2nd for Konecny and a 1st?

The time for Konecny has passed IMO. If we're moving Hellebucyk we should be focusing on getting younger and getting players with more years of control as we're not going to be in contention for a few years. So spending that valuable trade asset, along with Heinola who we have control of for 5 more years for Konecny who has 2 years left on his contract doesn't make sense to me.

 

[Flair Hay]

Don't disagree that having Ham, Marino, Miller is better for them than having Ham, Nemec, Miller. Nemec would provide less defense, more offense but still not likely = Marino yet.

It is the addition of Hellebuyck over any combination of Vanecek/Schmid that we disagree on. I think it would be quite a bit more significant than the difference between Marino & Nemec. Just a matter of opinion at this point. It is an unprovable hypothetical. Also somewhat unpredictable. Helle could have an off year and Vanecek could have a career season. NJD could win the Cup without Helle. Of course, they also could win it with Helle and without Marino.

I'm confused. Isn't the best option for them Hamilton-Marino-Nemec?

This is no different than when we brought in Trouba as 3rd pair and let him earn more time over the years. Perfect way to develop a high pedigree D.

 

[Huffer]

I'm confused. Isn't the best option for them Hamilton-Marino-Nemec?

This is no different than when we brought in Trouba as 3rd pair and let him earn more time over the years. Perfect way to develop a high pedigree D.

Exactly. They don't trade away their best defensive RHD signed at a great contract for 4 more years. They're a contending team so they use futures to acquire Hellebucyk or they move on. They likely give Schmid more starts next year and see if his .922 (in 18 games only), and .921 in the playoffs can be something he can maintain (maybe not .920, but say .915 ish).

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The absolute best case would be to load up at the deadline, go on a deep run, and convince Helle that we can win and re-sign him.

That can't be the absolute best case because it would be better to do that without loading up at the deadline - and win the Cup.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

not too interested in Vanecek, but flip Holtz and Heinola and a 2nd to Philly for Konecny?

Helly, Heinola and a 2nd for Konecny and a 1st?

Need a C, not Konecny. Value is ok.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm confused. Isn't the best option for them Hamilton-Marino-Nemec?

This is no different than when we brought in Trouba as 3rd pair and let him earn more time over the years. Perfect way to develop a high pedigree.

No. That still leaves them without a goalie. And no way Nemec is going to be a 3rd pair D for very long.

They might have the best D corps in the league but with lottery team goaltending.

A couple of teams have good PO runs with weak goalies who got hot for the PO and all of a sudden goaltending doesn't matter anymore.
Planning on your goalie getting hot at just the right time is not very good planning in my book.