GDT: 2023 NLDS: (1) Atlanta Braves vs. (4) Philadelphia Phillies

[Snotbubbles]

Can a real Phillies fan explain the strategy behind leaving Soto in to face the righty

The strategy is/was that Rosario, a lefty, was the most dangerous bat off the bench and was the last move Atlanta could make. If you go with a righty to start the inning they have to face 3 batters, so Topper was willing to take the mismatch of Soto v. Ozuna, so he could neutralize Rosario and still have Strahm (a lefty) as an insurance plan. Ozuna getting on and scoring was irrelevant to the Phillies. They weren't really concerned about the 6-9, it was Ozuna (who wasn't an important run) and Rosario. Topper forced the matchup there by going lefty-lefty out of the pen. It's actually brilliant when you think about it.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Certainly agree about the core. Probably the best in baseball and will remain the core for a long time.

Disagree with the other team assessment. After the All-Star break, the team was average. Arcia was outstanding the first couple months, but was below average the rest of the season. Rosario was bad all season. Ozuna had good streaks, but was mainly a .225 hitter. Not what you want out of your DH.

And the pitching fell off half-way through the season. Was never great outside of Strider (considering Fried was injured).

I do agree that the bats was the main reason we lost to the Phillies, but there were too many obvious holes in the Braves and none of them were addressed.

I mean... you aren't ever going to have a perfect roster. The fact is the team didn't score enough runs to win, if upgrading on a guys like Rosaria, Arcia, etc was needed for the Braves to win the series then, well, they weren't very good in the first place. You have Acuna, Olson, Harris, Albies, Riley, D'Arnaud/Murphy, and say what you will about Ozuna but the guy hit over .900 OPS with 40HR this year... what could you want more from your DH?

Even your gripe about Rosiario... he was a perfectly league average hitter this year. Like that is fine for your the bottom of the lineup. You aren't going to have a complete All-Star team out there.

Blaming AA for this is a very wild take. The big guns didn't come through plain and simple. That's not on him.

 

[Snotbubbles]

No question you'll hear more talk of the playoff format changing

Sour grapes.

As if having home field advantage wasn't enough for Atlanta. The Phillies had to face the Atlanta's ace twice who was facing off against their #3 pitcher (a guy who won a whopping 4 games the entire season). They managed 1 run against him.

The NY Yankees and Houston Astros handled the layoff fine last year. The Astros did it again this year. Pressure does strange things to objects. Sometimes it can crush something, other times it turns it into a diamond. The Braves losing had nothing to do with a layoff. Someone brought up 2021, here is a list of batters who played on that team that were in this series: Riley, Albies, D'Arnaud, Rosario, Arcia (he got 4 ABs in the 2021 post-season). Acuna, Olson, Ozuna, Harris, did not play on that post-season squad. How many times did Acuna, Olson, Ozuna and Harris come up in big spots and fail. Think this is a coincidence, the Braves scored 7 earned runs in the entire series. Here are the guys who got knocked in those runs: Riley 3 RBIs, d'Arnaud 2 RBIs, Albies 1 RBI, Arcia 1 RBI. Which players were diamonds, which got crushed?

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

I mean... you aren't ever going to have a perfect roster. The fact is the team didn't score enough runs to win, if upgrading on a guys like Rosaria, Arcia, etc was needed for the Braves to win the series then, well, they weren't very good in the first place. You have Acuna, Olson, Harris, Albies, Riley, D'Arnaud/Murphy, and say what you will about Ozuna but the guy hit over .900 OPS with 40HR this year... what could you want more from your DH?

Even your gripe about Rosiario... he was a perfectly league average hitter this year. Like that is fine for your the bottom of the lineup. You aren't going to have a complete All-Star team out there.

Blaming AA for this is a very wild take. The big guns didn't come through plain and simple. That's not on him.

Overall, I do agree with the lineup stuff. Never will have a perfect team. Still think there were glaring holes in the lineup that could have been fixed, but you're never going to get the perfect team.

I do still blame AA for not getting at least one starter, though. Was the #1 need from the All-Star break on after a combination of injuries adn poor performances. The revolving door of pitchers since the break proves that. But in the end, outside of game 3, it was mainly the cold bats that did us in.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Sour grapes.

As if having home field advantage wasn't enough for Atlanta. The Phillies had to face the Atlanta's ace twice who was facing off against their #3 pitcher (a guy who won a whopping 4 games the entire season). They managed 1 run against him.

The NY Yankees and Houston Astros handled the layoff fine last year. The Astros did it again this year. Pressure does strange things to objects. Sometimes it can crush something, other times it turns it into a diamond. The Braves losing had nothing to do with a layoff. Someone brought up 2021, here is a list of batters who played on that team that were in this series: Riley, Albies, D'Arnaud, Rosario, Arcia (he got 4 ABs in the 2021 post-season). Acuna, Olson, Ozuna, Harris, did not play on that post-season squad. How many times did Acuna, Olson, Ozuna and Harris come up in big spots and fail. Think this is a coincidence, the Braves scored 7 earned runs in the entire series. Here are the guys who got knocked in those runs: Riley 3 RBIs, d'Arnaud 2 RBIs, Albies 1 RBI, Arcia 1 RBI. Which players were diamonds, which got crushed?

The layoff thing is a very lazy and loser mentality excuse... Oh no... our team got to rest and set our rotation and lineup exactly how we wanted to and have extra prep time on our opponents while getting to watch them play a playoff series so we can further plan and strategize based on how they are performing... Ya sounds like a real kick in the nuts...

 

[GKJ]

If they address the format, it’s going to expand the field and not shorten it. Basically people asking to ditch the bye and just play a worse team and then I guess complain when they lose anyways.

 

[OhCaptainMyCaptain]

Baseball playoffs are not designed for the best teams to succeed. More than any other sport, because the season is so long and by comparison the playoffs and each round are so short. The best team in the league would still only expect to win a 5-game series from the worst team in the league like 80% of the time. Maybe a bit more considering how bad teams try to be now, but the math is always against them when you consider that the chances go down when they get to play only good teams.

I would argue the NFL is even more so designed for the best team not to win.

 

[GKJ]

I would argue the NFL is even more so designed for the best team not to win.

The NFL has a long history of being owned by the top 2 or 3 best teams for years at a time apart from a few transitional exceptions, but also they only play one game, and as usual the NFL is different.

 

[southsideIrish]

Overall, I do agree with the lineup stuff. Never will have a perfect team. Still think there were glaring holes in the lineup that could have been fixed, but you're never going to get the perfect team.

I do still blame AA for not getting at least one starter, though. Was the #1 need from the All-Star break on after a combination of injuries adn poor performances. The revolving door of pitchers since the break proves that. But in the end, outside of game 3, it was mainly the cold bats that did us in.

Yeah there's a stretch between a perfect roster and glaring holes. They didn't have glaring holes. Again other than the 3rd inning of Game 3 the Phillies didn't exactly tear the cover off the ball either. If the Braves literally get 3-4 key hits here or there they win Games 1 & 4, but that's baseball, lots of what-ifs.

Maybe part of it is they were on cruise control for so much of the season, who knows. Thought they could flip a switch - and they didn't. This team easily scored record-shattering numbers of runs this year and flopped big time. That had the tools and for the most part pitched well enough to win with the offense they had. But they didn't hit.

 

[MVP of West Hollywd]

While the playoffs are a crapshoot I also think it's partly luck that Acuna and Olsen had 15.5 WAR this year compared to 300 million guys Harper and Turner 7.3. The Braves starting pitching had a decent year and Strider looks like an ace but I would rather have the staff with two guys who've been Cy Young caliber in the past in Nola and Wheeler. The Braves still have a better team on paper but it's not by as much as their record.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Yeah there's a stretch between a perfect roster and glaring holes. They didn't have glaring holes. Again other than the 3rd inning of Game 3 the Phillies didn't exactly tear the cover off the ball either. If the Braves literally get 3-4 key hits here or there they win Games 1 & 4, but that's baseball, lots of what-ifs.

Maybe part of it is they were on cruise control for so much of the season, who knows. Thought they could flip a switch - and they didn't. This team easily scored record-shattering numbers of runs this year and flopped big time. That had the tools and for the most part pitched well enough to win with the offense they had. But they didn't hit.

I think the mix-up in my posts is that I'm not only looking at the playoffs. I'm looking at the team in comparison from the first half to the second. I think there were definitely glaring holes exposed during the second half when they allowed 5 runs a game since the break, near the bottom in the league.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

While the playoffs are a crapshoot I also think it's partly luck that Acuna and Olsen had 15.5 WAR this year compared to 300 million guys Harper and Turner 7.3. The Braves starting pitching had a decent year and Strider looks like an ace but I would rather have the staff with two guys who've been Cy Young caliber in the past in Nola and Wheeler. The Braves still have a better team on paper but it's not by as much as their record.

Strider is a Cy Young front runner this year and Fried would likely be in the mix if it wasn't for his injury. The pitching falls off a cliff after that, though.

 

[Halladay]

While the playoffs are a crapshoot I also think it's partly luck that Acuna and Olsen had 15.5 WAR this year compared to 300 million guys Harper and Turner 7.3. The Braves starting pitching had a decent year and Strider looks like an ace but I would rather have the staff with two guys who've been Cy Young caliber in the past in Nola and Wheeler. The Braves still have a better team on paper but it's not by as much as their record.

This is a very good point and I made this earlier in this thread. The Phillies were undervalued in this series when you really look at it. Bryce missed over month and came back in record time from Tommy John surgery and was basically just a singles hitter with a great OBP for another two months. Then after the All Star Break he turned into Bryce Harper. Since August 1st, both he and Trea have an OPS of over 1000, both in the top 10 in all of baseball. This isnt really a 90 win team, they were 65-42 since June 1st which equates to a 98 win team. This years team is much more complete than last years. I think as long as their bullpen pitches like they did and doesnt issue too many walks they will have a very good chance to win the World Series.

The Braves are very well run and I dont expect the Phillies unfortunately to win the division anytime soon but as they shown the past two years that really doesnt matter. They need to figure out what to do with Fried as he is nearly a free agent and regardless of that they need another starter. Strider is awesome, he is a smaller Verlander to me. Throwing 101 in the 6th last night.

 

[blueandgoldguy]

Good point about Philly. I thought they were a better team than their 90 wins. More like 95 - 97 so the gap between the 2 teams was not as great as it would appear at first glance.

I was cheering for the Braves going into the playoffs but I thought they were 50-50 at best to beat the Phils should they meet them and sure enough they lost.

What are some of the starting pitching options for the Braves heading into the off-season? Will Soroka ever come close to the highs of his rookie season or will be always be a shadow of his former self? Could we see a big free agent signing of a #2 or #3 pitcher to complement Strider and Fried. Trade one of the big offensive guns to a team struggling with offense but deep in pitching talent?

 

[GKJ]

Good point about Philly. I thought they were a better team than their 90 wins. More like 95 - 97 so the gap between the 2 teams was not as great as it would appear at first glance.

I was cheering for the Braves going into the playoffs but I thought they were 50-50 at best to beat the Phils should they meet them and sure enough they lost.

What are some of the starting pitching options for the Braves heading into the off-season? Will Soroka ever come close to the highs of his rookie season or will be always be a shadow of his former self? Could we see a big free agent signing of a #2 or #3 pitcher to complement Strider and Fried. Trade one of the big offensive guns to a team struggling with offense but deep in pitching talent?

Whatever happened to like half the dudes they had in the World Series?

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

There's tons of good pitching available in FA this offseason. If they want to bolster the rotation they can very easily...

Shohei (kinda)
Stroman
Kershaw
Ryu
Morton (ATL club option for $20)
Perez
E-Rod
Urias
Nola
Gray
Snell

The list goes on and on...