2022 Draft Profile:
RW Jordan Dumais, Halifax QMJHL
At first look, Jordan Dumais represents the ultimate contradictory fulcrum between stat-based and scouting-based assessment of draft-eligible prospects. His scoring totals are eye-popping: 19 goals and 58 points in 38 QMJHL games, putting him on an 104-point pace for the entire season. With an April 15 birthdate, he's also doing this as one of the younger draft eligibles for 2022. And he's leading a team in scoring which also features two top high-end prospects, Zachary L'Heureux (Nashville) and Elliot Desnoyers (Philadelphia). But, he's also 5'9 and an average skater at best, a damning combination which has left him with draft rankings generally in the #75 to #85 range, pegging him as a late 3rd round pick.
Though Dumais is quick and agile, he just doesn't have the extension or explosiveness to hit any reasonable top speeds expected for smaller, scoring forwards by the draft consensus. There is no way to sugarcoat this. This affects his ability in transition, to be certain. Combined with a lack of power in both his skating and frame, it makes him below average in the defensive zone despite high levels of awareness and compete. Aside from a very late growth spurt and a redefinition of his entire skating mechanism, it's tough to see how these flaws will be overcome.
Conversely, we're looking at a kid with several high-end, even elite, skills. His passing ability is top 10 in the entire 2022 draft class. Dumais is brilliant in his vision and creativity, able to see passing lanes where there seemingly are none, one of those "eyes behind his head" players with an almost uncanny sense of where his teammates are and where they are going. Once set up in the offensive zone, you want the puck on Dumais' stick, because he's going to generate scoring chance after scoring chance. He's a very good stickhandler who uses his one skating attribute -- agility/quickness -- in tandem with his quick hands to make himself extremely elusive with the puck, even in tight spaces. Though Dumais is certainly a pass-first player, he also features a quick release on an accurate shot and makes good decisions in when to fire away; he's capable of scoring in tight if the defense is too concerned with defending his brilliant passing acumen.
What makes me really a fan of this kid are his intangibles. Dumais' slight size does not affect his courage, and he's willing to battle even against much larger defensemen he stands nary a chance against. He tries to go to the greasy areas, although he often winds up on his ass as a result. He's incredible smart, and I'd rate his offensive awareness as pretty elite -- absolutely first-round caliber.
So, where do you draft a Jordan Dumais? His physical limitations would seem to ceiling him as "second-line scoring forward" despite his formidable strengths as an offensive generator. And there is not a lot of bottom six potential here, for obvious reasons listed above. We're basically talking a "second line or bust" player, though you'd also have to concede he could be a very high scoring 2nd liner if his development progresses to an optimal degree. Again, Dumais represents a true sleeper with significant finger-crossing. The stat-based scouting bureaus will probably be touting him as a worthy first-round pick come June, but that's just poor judgement. The "old school, draft big/fast" teams like Ottawa and Anaheim will probably be crossing him off their draft boards altogether, but that's even worse judgement. I'd say Jordan Dumais is a kid you take a flyer on from the 4th round on, hoping he builds his core strength and improves his straight-line speed enough that his brilliant hockey abilities manifest at the higher levels.