Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
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- 14,756
2022 Draft Part II
- Thread starter Frk It
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Killerjas
Registered User
Thanks for the report on Kaspar Ogee, but to me it reads like a stable "meat and potatoes" guy with okay upside but nothing flashy. High floor, just like the report said, and some ceiling but nothing extraordinary.
Alas, a good 3rd liner.
Alas, a good 3rd liner.
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
- 36,247
- 14,756
I don’t really know what to make of him (Kasper). This board seems higher on him than the consensus, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a valid take. Suppose I would need to watch him more or get more info still. I know I like Mesar a good deal better than the consensus.
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Killerjas
Registered User
People like these kinda players because they are relatively "safe". Plus he plays for Rogle and Europeans are the hot new thing.
As a Dutchie, I am all up for drafting more Europeans because they have 2 more years to get signed, decreasing the chances to "rush" for a contract.
OgeeOgelthorpe
Baldina
- Feb 29, 2020
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Meat and potatoes guys sometimes turn into Larkin, Bergeron, OReilly, Nelson and players like that. Sometimes they become Danault and Pageau type 2nd/3rd line centers, and if we're picking in the teens that is also A-OK. That's better than what Detroit has now. And picking a Pageau or Danault level center 12th to 15th (which is probably where Detroit goes) is a draft win.
There is nothing about Kasper that makes me think he'd be worse than Pius Suter as a 2nd line option in the near future. He's pretty physical and not shy about going to the tough areas of the ice like the front of the net. He's also got a really good shot and release. Kasper is strong defensively and works his tail off to get back. Also, while Kasper's speed isn't Larkin level it is really good when he gets moving.
I doubt Kasper ever makes it into the top 20 in NHL scoring but if he's capable of playing solid defensive hockey and getting 50+ points that is a pretty good 2C.
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I just think his profile goes a long way at least in terms of projecting and producing an actual NHL center. He is smart, has a good frame, reads the play well from what I have seen, and is an above average skater who transports the puck well. Those are all really good attributes to have if you are looking for an actual center (as opposed to some undersized kid cross-listed as a center). I appreciate that some people want more flashy puck skills (who wouldn't). I have come to understand, however, that those skills are not nearly as important as we make them out to be with the center position. If you took his profile and added high-end puck skills to it, you would be looking at a top 3 pick in this class. In terms of a 10+ OA pick, I think this is probably about the best we could expect with a center prospect.
I like the kid. He isn't sexy but is good. Expressed another way, I am really glad we took Dylan Larkin over Sonny Milano
Why is "flashy" equated with higher upside?
bedtime20
nap nap
Lidström already getting to work interviewing prospects.
Thoughts on Lian Bichsel?
Thoughts on Lian Bichsel?
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Ed Ned and Leddy
Brokering the Bally Sports + Corncob TV Merger
Kasper is intriguing to me, I like what I've seen of the player, and I definitely agree with the posters who are pointing out that perception of a low ceiling during a draft year is far from gospel. Plenty of players who lack eye-catching flair are earning over $5 mil a year and contributing massively for contending NHL teams. Like Edvinsson last year, I think it's quite likely that Kasper has had to adapt and simplify his game to compete at a professional level. Were he playing in the U20s for example, I imagine we'd see more consistent flashes of offense. That's where international tournaments can be really informative, and it's a shame for Kasper that COVID is limiting those opportunities.
The thing I'd push back on though, is that the "ceiling vs. floor" perception and "projectable vs. non-projectable" skill set discussion cuts both ways. I'm thrilled of course that we took Larkin over Milano, and I always keep that type of progression in mind when looking at the draft. But man, I'm sure Los Angeles is kicking themselves for taking Turcotte over Zegras. I'd love to be sitting here with Nick Suzuki instead of Michael Rasmussen. Obviously it's naive to draft on pure perception of upside, but I think it's equally flawed to simply default to prospects with the most traditionally projectable skill sets. I think that a good GM has to be open-minded to all flavors of prospects.
My philosophy is that teams who are bottoming can't be afraid to be bold with their high picks, because that's your best chance to find the players who will shape your franchise as you move out of a rebuild. But fortunately, I think the Red Wings under Yzerman have swung and hit on those picks. The Zadina situation is disappointing, but Seider and Raymond appear to be real cornerstone players. Edvinsson is tracking very well, and with more talent around them Larkin and Bertuzzi are showing how good they can be. We've got a reasonably deep, balanced prospect pool beyond the big names. Combine that with the fact that we likely won't be picking quite as high this year and we're looking at a draft class that's missed a lot of hockey due to multiple years of COVID, and I think for me the risk/reward calculus on this year's 1st is different from years prior.
That's not to say I wouldn't draft a controversial player like Lambert or Nazar for example, but I think the Red Wings are somewhat less talent-starved than the last couple years and the idea of drafting a guy who might not have franchise-changing potential is now much easier to digest.
The thing I'd push back on though, is that the "ceiling vs. floor" perception and "projectable vs. non-projectable" skill set discussion cuts both ways. I'm thrilled of course that we took Larkin over Milano, and I always keep that type of progression in mind when looking at the draft. But man, I'm sure Los Angeles is kicking themselves for taking Turcotte over Zegras. I'd love to be sitting here with Nick Suzuki instead of Michael Rasmussen. Obviously it's naive to draft on pure perception of upside, but I think it's equally flawed to simply default to prospects with the most traditionally projectable skill sets. I think that a good GM has to be open-minded to all flavors of prospects.
My philosophy is that teams who are bottoming can't be afraid to be bold with their high picks, because that's your best chance to find the players who will shape your franchise as you move out of a rebuild. But fortunately, I think the Red Wings under Yzerman have swung and hit on those picks. The Zadina situation is disappointing, but Seider and Raymond appear to be real cornerstone players. Edvinsson is tracking very well, and with more talent around them Larkin and Bertuzzi are showing how good they can be. We've got a reasonably deep, balanced prospect pool beyond the big names. Combine that with the fact that we likely won't be picking quite as high this year and we're looking at a draft class that's missed a lot of hockey due to multiple years of COVID, and I think for me the risk/reward calculus on this year's 1st is different from years prior.
That's not to say I wouldn't draft a controversial player like Lambert or Nazar for example, but I think the Red Wings are somewhat less talent-starved than the last couple years and the idea of drafting a guy who might not have franchise-changing potential is now much easier to digest.
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Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
- 36,247
- 14,756
I watched as much stuff on these prospects as I could today, and here are some thoughts.
I get the thought process on Wright and Cooley being #1 and #2 - I think they are the players that have the best combo of upside/floor of the top players in the draft.
Matt Savoie - All year I have been wondering why he is not the consensus #2, and why can't he challenge Wright? After really watching some of him I, I think I can understand why. I knew he was small, but he really does looks small out there. Maybe smaller than what he is listed at. I don't know if that is because of his posture, or a wide stance, or what. He's not explosive for a small guy. But I love the brain and I love the vision. I was thinking he was kind of like a Marner, but he's not. If anything, he's like a Gaudreau. I will rank him top 5, but I can understand teams feeling he should be closer to 5 than 1. There is some risk.
Brad Lambert - The best player in this class with the puck on his stick, bar none. For a guy with his level of skating/skill, I don't like how often he gets himself trapped in the offensive zone, and I don't like how often he gets knocked off the puck. But I think if you are patient with this kid, you could get yourself a steal. I feel like with him picking the right the development path is crucial, and I would want to have a good feeling for how coachable he is before picking him. But I would not have any issue with drafting him. If I could take Savoie's brain and drop it in Lambert's body, I think you would have your #1 overall pick.
Simon Nemec - He's my favorite defenseman in this draft. I think he's the most naturally talented/skilled blueliner available. Don't really want to take a defenseman, but if I had to, it would be him.
Connor Geekie - I personally really like this player. I think he is very easily projectable as an NHL player with his frame, and I think he has a lot of room to grow. I feel like he has good hands, and he makes plays all over the ice. He will impact games for you even when he doesn't hit the score sheet, and I think we could use more players like that.
David Jiricek - I think he is a kind of like the defenseman version of Geekie. Would not hate picking him if we think he is BPA, but I personally like Nemec better, and with this draft (and our needs) I think we are best suited taking a forward. He could have a lot of untapped potential, but I don't like how he is missing development time with the injury this year. That matters to me.
I get the thought process on Wright and Cooley being #1 and #2 - I think they are the players that have the best combo of upside/floor of the top players in the draft.
Matt Savoie - All year I have been wondering why he is not the consensus #2, and why can't he challenge Wright? After really watching some of him I, I think I can understand why. I knew he was small, but he really does looks small out there. Maybe smaller than what he is listed at. I don't know if that is because of his posture, or a wide stance, or what. He's not explosive for a small guy. But I love the brain and I love the vision. I was thinking he was kind of like a Marner, but he's not. If anything, he's like a Gaudreau. I will rank him top 5, but I can understand teams feeling he should be closer to 5 than 1. There is some risk.
Brad Lambert - The best player in this class with the puck on his stick, bar none. For a guy with his level of skating/skill, I don't like how often he gets himself trapped in the offensive zone, and I don't like how often he gets knocked off the puck. But I think if you are patient with this kid, you could get yourself a steal. I feel like with him picking the right the development path is crucial, and I would want to have a good feeling for how coachable he is before picking him. But I would not have any issue with drafting him. If I could take Savoie's brain and drop it in Lambert's body, I think you would have your #1 overall pick.
Simon Nemec - He's my favorite defenseman in this draft. I think he's the most naturally talented/skilled blueliner available. Don't really want to take a defenseman, but if I had to, it would be him.
Connor Geekie - I personally really like this player. I think he is very easily projectable as an NHL player with his frame, and I think he has a lot of room to grow. I feel like he has good hands, and he makes plays all over the ice. He will impact games for you even when he doesn't hit the score sheet, and I think we could use more players like that.
David Jiricek - I think he is a kind of like the defenseman version of Geekie. Would not hate picking him if we think he is BPA, but I personally like Nemec better, and with this draft (and our needs) I think we are best suited taking a forward. He could have a lot of untapped potential, but I don't like how he is missing development time with the injury this year. That matters to me.
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
- 36,247
- 14,756
Others:
Danila Yurov - Top 5 player for me, all day. I could see him ending up better than Wright or Cooley. His ability to stick handle/shoot the puck is special. Does some things very similar to Kucherov (or Pastrnak)
Juraj Slafkovsky - Loved him coming off the Hlinka, but has not been as good in Finland as I thought he would be. He is more raw than I thought he was. But he has a very, very enticing set of skills. The combination of size, skating, skill is hard to find. Wide range of outcomes with this kid, I think I would take the long development route with him.
As much as I want a center in this draft, I would have no issue taking Yurov or Slavkovsky over a center. Zero. Not sure if Savoie/Lambert are centers or wingers at the pro level, but I would be fine taking them over a surer bet to play center as well. These guys all have tremendous upside for me.
Danila Yurov - Top 5 player for me, all day. I could see him ending up better than Wright or Cooley. His ability to stick handle/shoot the puck is special. Does some things very similar to Kucherov (or Pastrnak)
Juraj Slafkovsky - Loved him coming off the Hlinka, but has not been as good in Finland as I thought he would be. He is more raw than I thought he was. But he has a very, very enticing set of skills. The combination of size, skating, skill is hard to find. Wide range of outcomes with this kid, I think I would take the long development route with him.
As much as I want a center in this draft, I would have no issue taking Yurov or Slavkovsky over a center. Zero. Not sure if Savoie/Lambert are centers or wingers at the pro level, but I would be fine taking them over a surer bet to play center as well. These guys all have tremendous upside for me.
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I don’t think Nemec or Jiricek will be there for us. For me it’s between Kasper and Mesnar. I think Kasper’s size and overall ability give him a slight edge over Filip at this point. Brad Lambert could change everything for me but I do think he will not make it to our pick. Someone will gamble on him before we have to make a decision. If Geekie’s skating is as bad as people are hinting it’s a red flag for me also.
OgeeOgelthorpe
Baldina
- Feb 29, 2020
- 17,228
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I know who Brad Lambert reminds me of: Tim Connolly. Maybe a little bit of Ales Hemsky in there as well.
I remember watching Connolly when he broke into the league and thought that he was one of the best stickhandlers I had ever seen. But...like Lambert, he skated himself into coverage and into vulnerable spots a lot.
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
- 36,247
- 14,756
He kind of has some Hemsky to him. Main difference there is I think he is a more willing and better shooter, at the same age.
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
- 36,247
- 14,756
It might be the Zadina PTSD talking, but I have a hard time ranking Kemell highly even though I like him as a player. Mirosnichenko is another guy I am really not sure where to rank, and how he fits in with these other guys.
I have seen a lot of buzz about Ohgren lately, I need to give him some attention at some point. I don't really have a good feel on him or Lekkerimaki. I feel from the little I do know, I could see Detroit loving Lekkerimaki.
I have seen a lot of buzz about Ohgren lately, I need to give him some attention at some point. I don't really have a good feel on him or Lekkerimaki. I feel from the little I do know, I could see Detroit loving Lekkerimaki.
OgeeOgelthorpe
Baldina
- Feb 29, 2020
- 17,228
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I think Miroshnichenko is a guy that probably has the best toolset out of anyone in this draft. Big, strong, fast, hell of a shot, great stickhandler. I don't know about his toolbox though. He looked great at the Hlinka-Gretzky despite some inconsistent outings, and people on the main have said he's been terribly inconsistent this season.
I really liked Ohgren at the Hlinka and thought he carried his line with Lekkerimaki and Ostlund. Pretty good wheels, great work ethic, and a well rounded skillset. I don't think he'll ever be a top end scoring winger but a middle 6 2-way player. Maybe a 30 point guy, maybe a 50 point guy.
Lekkerimaki makes me think of Alexander Holtz-lite. What concerns you about Kemell is what concerns me about Lekkerimaki. I have a hard time seeing him contribute if he's not scoring.
NickH8
Registered User
- Jul 3, 2015
- 3,697
- 3,852
Miroshnichenko and Kemell trigger the Zadina PTSD a lot in me too. Guys with an "elite" shot, not really fast or good in their own end, not really playmakers. I can see why people like them but it's just too easy for me to envision ways in which they end up being underwhelming. I wouldn't be surprised if they light up euro leagues or AHL before getting to the NHL, and then struggle under NHL defensive pressure.
The ceiling vs. floor debate comes across as too binary for my liking. Outside of the top couple spots in the draft, I think we overrate the overall upside of everyone in the draft. After the first couple we don't find many players with hit you in the face skills and athletic attributes that scream for sure, high-end NHL player. Everyone has warts, which shade the better (even elite) elements of their game that impact the certainty with which you can project them. Moreover, I think a lot of the public scouts have a hard time deciphering what exactly gives a player a high upside (spoiler alert, it isn't toe dragging a bunch junior or college level defensemen on the outside all night) and fail to give enough weight to the context in which prospects make plays. Anyways, it is not as simple as putting prospects into safe buckets and risky buckets or flashy buckets and bottom-six buckets. Rather, there is a shit ton of gray with these prospects that requires a lot of educated guessing based on past experience and other factors.
Trust me when I tell you the brass did not pick Rasmussen hoping that he would turn into a third-line center. Same goes for Turcotte in LA.
lilidk
Registered User
- Mar 4, 2008
- 9,878
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I like him because he speaks with Seider same language
Henkka
Registered User
19.2 year-old William Eklund points/60 at Djurgården: 2.211
17.5 year-old Jonathan Lekkerimäki points/60 at Djurgården: 3.354
Interesting. Right handed Center with sniper abilities. Scored 5+0 at Hlinka 5 games.
17.5 year-old Jonathan Lekkerimäki points/60 at Djurgården: 3.354
Interesting. Right handed Center with sniper abilities. Scored 5+0 at Hlinka 5 games.
lilidk
Registered User
- Mar 4, 2008
- 9,878
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Shaman464
No u
Detroit needs high talent centers bad, and I feel that where they are trending to draft they will likely end up getting a winger or a middle pairing Dman. Without a lot of luck, Detroit might be left in the worst possible place, being too good to draft players talented enough to fill out the roster, but not good enough to be anything but a bubble team/first round fodder.
Henkka
Registered User
Yeah, but he is drafted to San Jose. I'd like to have Ovechkin, Malkin and Crosby, but can't have.
Point was to compare them. How 1,5 years younger kid is heating up, and outproducing this overhyped 2021 drafted prospect at same team.
I wouldn't worry about that at 2022 draft. that talent Group from 2-11 picks is very equal.
And then there's guys like Lekkerimäki and Kasper at next group after the Top11.
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