Blue Jays GDT: 2021 v12 | Next: Thu, Sept 30| vs NYY | 7:00pm ET/4:00pm PT | Kluber vs Ray

[Michael HOMERUNing]

Can not believe there some f***ing idiots on twitter blaming Montoyo for the 6th inning. You fly with your ace, you die with your ace. Putting in Valera for Grichuk against right handed Chapman was the questionable move tonight

Edit: mean to say LHP chapman

 

[canucksfan]

Can not believe there some f***ing idiots on twitter blaming Montoyo for the 6th inning. You fly with your ace, you die with your ace. Putting in Valera for Grichuk against right handed Chapman was the questionable move tonight

Edit: mean to say LHP chapman

Ray didn't look as solid as he has been. He wasn't missing as many bats as he usually does and the Yanks were putting some fairly good contact on his pitches. Jays still would lose because they only scored two runs. I think the earliest to take out Ray was after the Judge homer.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Yeah, what a worse time for the bats to come up short.

It's like being a Leafs fan. We cant have nice things with Toronto sports teams. I know the Raptors won a few years ago but its frustrating watching stacked Leafs and Jays teams do nothing.

 

[EpochLink]

It's like being a Leafs fan. We cant have nice things with Toronto sports teams. I know the Raptors won a few years ago but its frustrating watching stacked Leafs and Jays teams do nothing.

That 2015-2016 window was short lived, I enjoyed those playoff runs but to come up short against Kansas City and Cleveland...awful.

I think 2015 hit more than 2016, we couldn't hit a lick against the Cleveland pitching but we at least made Kansas City work for their money.

 

[CherryToke]

It's like being a Leafs fan. We cant have nice things with Toronto sports teams. I know the Raptors won a few years ago but its frustrating watching stacked Leafs and Jays teams do nothing.

Stacked in some ways and flawed in others. It never works

 

[Suntouchable13]

The loss to Detroit where Semien botched a simple throw to vlad still haunts me. We would be tied for a playoff spot right now.

 

[supermann_98]

Robbie Ray entering tonight

1st through the order: 1.80 era
2nd time through the order: 2.13 era
3rd time trough the order: 4.76

Couldn’t watch the game. Thought right away it was Robbie Ray getting lit up 3rd time though once I saw the score in the 6th.

His era the 3rd time through will be over 5.
I don’t care if he’s the ace, data is data. f***ing use it. Most important game of the year too.

This season is on Montoyo.

He literally just shut down 12 batters in a row and was on fire. You saying you expected 3 homeruns Off him in the 6th?

 

[supermann_98]

1-10 with runners in scoring position. Usually we're better than this but Teoscar, Grichuk, Kirk absolute crap this game. Teoscar took the entire series off.

Yeah not a single hit all series, pretty brutal for 5th in the batting order

 

[Puckstuff]

He literally just shut down 12 batters in a row and was on fire. You saying you expected 3 homeruns Off him in the 6th?

Yeah, I am... The data is pretty clear and the pattern recognition was obvious. I've talked about it several times already.

Updated after last night

1st time through the order: 1.88 era
2nd time through the order: 2.05 era
3rd time through the order: 5.52 era

 

[theaub]

The Jays bullpen (especially with Cimber unavailable) is just not good enough to pull Ray after 5. Much more comfortable going down with our best pitcher blowing up than Merryweather etc getting rocked in another high leverage situation.

The issue, once again, was on the offensive side of the ball.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Yeah, I am... The data is pretty clear and the pattern recognition was obvious. I've talked about it several times already.

Updated after last night

1st time through the order: 1.88 era
2nd time through the order: 2.05 era
3rd time through the order: 5.52 era

Has the pitching gotten worse or hitters became better at pattern recognition? What was Halladay’s ERA 3rd time through, career? Not comparing Ray to Halladay just curious. Ray is bona fide Cy Young candidate this year and yet 3rd time through his ERA balloons.

 

[theaub]

Has the pitching gotten worse or hitters became better at pattern recognition? What was Halladay’s ERA 3rd time through, career? Not comparing Ray to Halladay just curious. Ray is bona fide Cy Young candidate this year and yet 3rd time through his ERA balloons.

Ray is basically a two pitch guy so presumably he is easier to pick up once you start to see the slider better.

Halladay was continously elite:
1st time: .252/.297/.361
2nd time: .245/.282/.363
3rd time: .255/.299.390

As for why its different now, a combination of factors
- Guys are geared more for max velocity and less innings...Ray will likely lead the league this year with 193 IP, Halladay had 8 years with 220+ IP.
- 15 years ago getting to the bullpen in the 6th inning was a big success...now for most teams it just means facing some guy throwing 96 with a plus breaking pitch.
- Specifically for this year, no one threw big innings last year due to COVID so late-season fatigue is definitely more of a factor

There are still guys who have pretty flat splits each time through the order, but generally (ie: not last night IMO), you're better off going to a high velocity bullpen arm the third time through.

 

[tmlms13]

Rough night for Marvin. I've umpired a lot of games in my life and I will say that the upper corners of the strike zone are the most difficult to call.

 

[theaub]

Realistically you should be able to cover up and in from the slot but everything beyond that is guesswork.

 

[Muston Atthews]

Vladdy and Teo looked to be playing hero ball that whole series instead of sticking with what made them successful all year. Vlad started to figure it out