Prospect Info: 2021 HFDevils Prospect Rankings #4

[beekay414]

Foote; add Moynihan and Boqvist

 

[Guttersniped]

I went off the board with Clarke. I think he's underrated by us.

 

[Guttersniped]

People are typing “Add Walsh” wrong. Just sayin’.

 

[JimEIV]

I voted Stillman but I can get behind Foote here. I think there is a better case to be made for Foote than Holtz

.8 ppg in his D-1
.95 ppg in his draft year
1.22 ppg in D+1

8 points in his first 11 games with Binghamton then 9 in his next 13 games for 17 in 24 and .71 PPG in his pro debut

Plus a goal and an assist in 6 games averaging 9:41 of ice with the big club

That's a pretty impressive resume to start a career with.

 

[My3Sons]

I considered Foote, Mukhamadullin, and Stillman based on the list. It was somewhat close, but I went with Foote. I see his upside as similar to Mukhamadullin in terms of potential impact, and ahead of Stillman for now. I also considered where they seem to be in their development which to me favored Foote who had a solid season all things considered compared to the other two, even if nobody had a normal season and it's a bit lesser of a consideration for this evaluation. Of course, Foote has the advantage of more playing views from me than the other two since he was with the organization and actually saw time in the NHL. For now, that's how I went. I don't claim to be much of a prospect prognosticator, however.

 

[Nubmer6]

I voted Stillman but I can get behind Foote here. I think there is a better case to be made for Foote than Holtz

.8 ppg in his D-1
.95 ppg in his draft year
1.22 ppg in D+1

8 points in his first 11 games with Bighamton then 9 in his next 13 games for 17 in 24 and .71 PPG in his pro debut

Plus a a goal and an assist in 6 games averaging 9:41 of ice with the big club

That's a pretty impressive resume to start a career with.

Yeah, but different leagues, and different ages.

 

[Nubmer6]

I considered Foote, Mukhamadullin, and Stillman based on the list. It was somewhat close, but I went with Foote. I see his upside as similar to Mukhamadullin in terms of potential impact, and ahead of Stillman for now. I also considered where they seem to be in their development which to me favored Foote who had a solid season all things considered compared to the other two, even if nobody had a normal season and it's a bit lesser of a consideration for this evaluation. Of course, Foote has the advantage of more playing views from me than the other two since he was with the organization and actually saw time in the NHL. For now, that's how I went. I don't claim to be much of a prospect prognosticator, however.

Thing with Foote and Stillman are that they're power forwards, which we sorely need. They may get more chances earlier because of that. Muk could be great, but is probably pushed down the lineup by Hughes and Smith, so will probably never be more than a 3rd paring with us, even if he deserves better.

 

[JimEIV]

Yeah, but different leagues, and different ages.

Sure but with Foote there is steady and I would argue impressive progression that is not there with Holtz.

Holtz had meh WJC, did not improve from his draft year to his D+1 in the SEL and did nothing in Binghamton.

 

[Nubmer6]

Sure but with Foote there is steady and I would argue impressive progression that is not there with Holtz.

Holtz had meh WJC, did not improve from his draft year to his D+1 in the SEL and did nothing in Binghamton.

Yeah, Holtz had a disappointing year. I do wonder, however, what the ceiling is with Foote, and if his speed will hold him back in the NHL. He may never make it past the 3rd line, while Holtz seems like top 2 lines or bust. It comes down to what you value more, ceiling or floor.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Starting to regret my Holtz vote. Kid has tons of potential, but in a ranking it's hard to ignore how poor a season he had.

Plus I think a bunch of other guys are getting underrated a bit around here. Stillman for one, but I think we might be sleeping a bit on Muk and Clarke too

Clarke intrigues me more then Foote to be honest.

 

[JimEIV]

Yeah, Holtz had a disappointing year. I do wonder, however, what the ceiling is with Foote, and if his speed will hold him back in the NHL. He may never make it past the 3rd line, while Holtz seems like top 2 lines or bust. It comes down to what you value more, ceiling or floor.

I think progression more valuable than the concepts of ceiling or floor?

 

[MartyOwns]

Starting to regret my Holtz vote. Kid has tons of potential, but in a ranking it's hard to ignore how poor a season he had.

i wouldn't draw too many conclusions one way or the other on last season, for obvious reasons

 

[Nubmer6]

I think progression more valuable than the concepts of ceiling or floor?

True, but it was a weird year. Holtz losing his center didn't help. Plus we've seen players recover from an off year.

I *THINK* I read somewhere that while Holtz didn't progress, he didn't regress either, so there's that.

 

[JimEIV]

i wouldn't draw too many conclusions one way or the other on last season, for obvious reasons

So do you discount the guys that actually did perform well too? Do we say Foote's season shouldn't hold any value because it wasn't a real AHL season and more glorified scrimmages? I mean it has to cut both ways doesn't it?

If it does...Shouldn't everyone keep their spots from last year and we could just fit in the new picks?

 

[Guttersniped]

I voted Stillman but I can get behind Foote here. I think there is a better case to be made for Foote than Holtz

.8 ppg in his D-1
.95 ppg in his draft year
1.22 ppg in D+1

8 points in his first 11 games with Bighamton then 9 in his next 13 games for 17 in 24 and .71 PPG in his pro debut

Plus a a goal and an assist in 6 games averaging 9:41 of ice with the big club

That's a pretty impressive resume to start a career with.

Thing with Foote and Stillman are that they're power forwards, which we sorely need. They may get more chances earlier because of that. Muk could be great, but is probably pushed down the lineup by Hughes and Smith, so will probably never be more than a 3rd paring with us, even if he deserves better.

Yeah, 1.22 PPG in your D+ 1 in the WHL isn’t particularly good and with a November birthday Foote is old for his draft class. So he was 19 years old during that season too, but he was hampered by injuries, which is why he only played 27 games.

With a January birthday Holtz isn’t particularly young but it was his 18th year. Using Elite Prospects, I have Holtz ties with two other players at 22nd w/ his .45 PPG as an 18 or younger player in the SHL since 2000-01. (With 10 or more games played.)

What makes that disappointing of course is he’s also 20th on the list for his 2019-2020 season’s .46 PPG. And for players 17 or younger, he’s 5th since 2000-01 for that season (Fiala is 1st with .65 PPG). People certainly expected, or at least hoped, Holtz would notably build more on his 2019-20 season.

We’ve discussed his strong start before, him getting banged up at WJC and his second half swoon having extenuating circumstances. (You might have missed it but that happened.) I don’t think it matters that much, or more specifically, I personally don’t care. He’s signed and he’s going to playing in NA so his prospect days are largely academic at this point. What matters is the player who shows up in camp in few weeks.

 

[JimEIV]

Yeah, 1.22 PPG in your D+ 1 in the WHL isn’t particularly good and with a November birthday Foote is old for his draft class. So he was 19 years old during that season too, but he was hampered by injuries, which is why he only played 27 games.

With a January birthday Holtz isn’t particularly young but it was his 18th year. Using Elite Prospects, I have Holtz ties with two other players at 22nd w/ his .45 PPG as an 18 or younger player in the SHL since 2000-01. (With 10 or more games played.)

What makes that disappointing of course is he’s also 20th on the list for his 2019-2020 season’s .46 PPG. And for players 17 or younger, he’s 5th since 2000-01 for that season (Fiala is 1st with .65 PPG). People certainly expected, or at least hoped, Holtz would notably build more on his 2019-20 season.

We’ve discussed his strong start before, him getting banged up at WJC and his second half swoon having extenuating circumstances. (You might have missed it but that happened.) I don’t think it matters that much, or more specifically, I personally don’t care. He’s signed and he’s going to playing in NA so his prospect days are largely academic at this point. What matters is the player who shows up in camp in few weeks.

ok...But not a single word of that helps ranking our prospects.

 

[Guttersniped]

ok...But not a single word of that helps ranking our prospects.

I don’t particularly believe in strict rankings (or passionately care about them), I’m more of a tier gal, but I was only commenting on your comparison of Foote’s and Holtz’s D+1 numbers.

Foote’s D+1 = not that good, but definitely injuries

Holtz D+1 = would have been very good if he was some rando lower pick but he was expected to do better because of draft pedigree and previous season (but maybe injuries)

I would give it to Holtz because I don’t see Foote as further along than him at 20. You compared their 2020-21 U20 WJC production but Holtz played at the U20 as a 17 year old, that was his 2nd tourney. And he ironically scored 5 points, 3G 2A, in 7 games, like Foote did at 19 but Holtz did it at 17.

Holtz had a disappointing season, I’m disappointed. This is my disappointed face. I still think it was a second half swoon with extenuating circumstances and he’s a better prospect than Foote. That said, if people like Foote more they should vote for him. I’m not the prospect police.

Stillman is such an unknown that he’s harder to argue against or for. It’s really a coin flip for me between Stillman and Foote but I went with Stillman.

 

[Guttersniped]

This is a real tough one for me between Foote, Clarke, and Mukh. I am going to go with Foote because of his size + shot combo, but I really want to pick Clarke here. He was insanely impressive in the AHL this past season, and I think both Foote and Clarke would have done even better if they had had a better center than Seney on their line.

Add Walsh. How did McCarthy get added before Walsh?

 

[EnglishDevil]

Foote add Gritsyuk

 

[JimEIV]

I don’t particularly believe in strict rankings (or passionately care about them), I’m more of a tier gal, but I was only commenting on your comparison of Foote’s and Holtz’s D+1 numbers.

Foote’s D+1 = not that good, but definitely injuries

Holtz D+1 = would have been very good if he was some rando lower pick but he was expected to do better because of draft pedigree and previous season (but maybe injuries)

I would give it to Holtz because I don’t see Foote as further along than him at 20. You compared their 2020-21 U20 WJC production but Holtz played at the U20 as a 17 year old, that was his 2nd tourney. And he ironically scored 5 points, 3G 2A, in 7 games, like Foote did at 19 but Holtz did it at 17.

Holtz had a disappointing season, I’m disappointed. This is my disappointed face. I still think it was a second half swoon with extenuating circumstances and he’s a better prospect than Foote. That said, if people like Foote more they should vote for him. I’m not the prospect police.

Stillman is such an unknown that he’s harder to argue against or for. It’s really a coin flip for me between Stillman and Foote but I went with Stillman.

I completely agree with not valuing strict ranking...But that is what we are here for

And I had no idea you were "a gal". Not that it makes a difference I was just surprised to see that.

 

[Its Always Sundstrom]

Stillman add Samu, damnit.

 

[AfroThunder396]

So do you discount the guys that actually did perform well too? Do we say Foote's season shouldn't hold any value because it wasn't a real AHL season and more glorified scrimmages? I mean it has to cut both ways doesn't it?

If it does...Shouldn't everyone keep their spots from last year and we could just fit in the new picks?

Honestly yes, both at the prospect and NHL level. There were a few exceptional performances that rocketed a few guys up the list (Sharangovich, Smith) but IMO everyone else was treading water. I'm not sold on Zacha's breakout, for example. He needs to do it again before I buy in.

It was very temping to put Mercer over Holtz but I still had Holtz at #2. I just think Holtz has some very special talents that can't be taught. I could easily be wrong when we revisit this in a year but I think getting out of Sweden and working with NA professionals will do wonders for his development.

My prospect list is largely the same as it was last year, a couple of minor risers and fallers and the new new guys but otherwise the same.

 

[MartyOwns]

So do you discount the guys that actually did perform well too? Do we say Foote's season shouldn't hold any value because it wasn't a real AHL season and more glorified scrimmages? I mean it has to cut both ways doesn't it?

If it does...Shouldn't everyone keep their spots from last year and we could just fit in the new picks?

correct. i’m not drawing any conclusions one way or the other from anybody last “season”. people may disagree with that, but that’s how i’m approaching it. in a perfect world the guys that underperformed will improve and the overachievers will continue to do so.

 

[My3Sons]

I don’t particularly believe in strict rankings (or passionately care about them), I’m more of a tier gal, but I was only commenting on your comparison of Foote’s and Holtz’s D+1 numbers.

Foote’s D+1 = not that good, but definitely injuries

Holtz D+1 = would have been very good if he was some rando lower pick but he was expected to do better because of draft pedigree and previous season (but maybe injuries)

I would give it to Holtz because I don’t see Foote as further along than him at 20. You compared their 2020-21 U20 WJC production but Holtz played at the U20 as a 17 year old, that was his 2nd tourney. And he ironically scored 5 points, 3G 2A, in 7 games, like Foote did at 19 but Holtz did it at 17.

Holtz had a disappointing season, I’m disappointed. This is my disappointed face. I still think it was a second half swoon with extenuating circumstances and he’s a better prospect than Foote. That said, if people like Foote more they should vote for him. I’m not the prospect police.

Stillman is such an unknown that he’s harder to argue against or for. It’s really a coin flip for me between Stillman and Foote but I went with Stillman.

We will never know the full extent of Holtz's injury, but his SHL season got off to very good start if memory serves and went off the rails when injury struck him and then his line mates and the team had Covid issues. He didn't really rebound until the playoffs and even then he didn't do much in his first AHL stint. Hopefully he's healthy and ready to go for camp and can play to the best of his abilities. As @StevenToddIves has noted about Holtz, he's a dependent player to some extent and will need good setup line mates to excel. I'm not sure who will do that for him in Utica this upcoming season.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

I went with Bahl because i think his ceiling is the highest of the bunch. His ceiling is a top 5 defensive defenseman in the NHL.

Add Reilly Walsh. (how is he not on here yet?)

Is Jesper Boqvist still a prospect?