Prospect Info: 2021 Devils-Centric Mock Draft, Post Lottery Edition

[StevenToddIves]

I don't get Wheeler, though I have the utmost respect for him. If I was drinking a beer with him, I would just straight up ask him -- "do you really think Gostisbehere is a better defenseman than Slavin"? Because that's how he ranks D.

It's weird because this type of reasoning is actually prevalent in the NHL media. This week a relatively prominent Devils writer wrote an article specifically saying the Devils should make a play for Gostisbehere. His argument was backed up 100% -- not 99% -- with analytic stats which said that Gostisbehere was a good defenseman. But I watch every hockey team and can tell you, without a doubt, that Gostisbehere is as soft physically and weak defensively as any defenseman in the entire NHL. This is why he was a healthy scratch for much of the past two seasons. This is why Will Butcher -- despite being one of the Devils top analytic defensemen --is also often a healthy scratch. The same can be said for Jake Gardiner, who is another awful player this same writer was plugging for two seasons ago.

Now Wheeler is not one of those flawed writers who does not watch players and simply ranks them on the basis of analytics alone. But he does over-rely on statistics and offensive upside with players whose games are more than simply scoring.

Pronman does not do this. Generally, he's my opposite because he always wants to err on the side of caution -- his biggest fear seems to be over-pumping a player who does not make the NHL. While I would much rather do that than be skeptical of a player who turns into a star. With D in particular, Pronman always down-ranks them -- and he freely admits to doing this. I am again opposite -- as I see defenseman (and centers) as more valuable to an NHL team, I give them a bump in the rankings due to position.

 

[Hisch13r]

I don't get Wheeler, though I have the utmost respect for him. If I was drinking a beer with him, I would just straight up ask him -- "do you really think Gostisbehere is a better defenseman than Slavin"? Because that's how he ranks D.

It's weird because this type of reasoning is actually prevalent in the NHL media. This week a relatively prominent Devils writer wrote an article specifically saying the Devils should make a play for Gostisbehere. His argument was backed up 100% -- not 99% -- with analytic stats which said that Gostisbehere was a good defenseman. But I watch every hockey team and can tell you, without a doubt, that Gostisbehere is as soft physically and weak defensively as any defenseman in the entire NHL. This is why he was a healthy scratch for much of the past two seasons. This is why Will Butcher -- despite being one of the Devils top analytic defensemen --is also often a healthy scratch. The same can be said for Jake Gardiner, who is another awful player this same writer was plugging for two seasons ago.

Now Wheeler is not one of those flawed writers who does not watch players and simply ranks them on the basis of analytics alone. But he does over-rely on statistics and offensive upside with players whose games are more than simply scoring.

Pronman does not do this. Generally, he's my opposite because he always wants to err on the side of caution -- his biggest fear seems to be over-pumping a player who does not make the NHL. While I would much rather do that than be skeptical of a player who turns into a star. With D in particular, Pronman always down-ranks them -- and he freely admits to doing this. I am again opposite -- as I see defenseman (and centers) as more valuable to an NHL team, I give them a bump in the rankings due to position.

Gardiner was legitimately good 2 years ago. He had a back injury and it’s tanked his play. Same as what happened to PK

 

[Guttersniped]

Ghost can transition the puck, play on power play and score goals, that he gets you. He got his 6 year/4.5m deal and early fan buzz from the incredible, presumably never to be fully replicated, shooting in his sophomore, 17 goals in 64 game season in 2015-16. Ghost did have 9 goals in 41 games this season though, that’s a 18 goal in 82 game season on per game rate while 2015-16 would have been a 22 goal season.

So this season was his second best in terms of goal scoring, even though 20 points in 40 games is pretty underwhelming. His best season in terms of points is 2017-18, when he had 65 points in 78 games. If a defenseman has the equivalent of a 68 point season you probably should expect either questionable defense at times or a Norris trophy nomination. And Ghost did come in 10th in Norris voting that year, he got four 3rd place votes, three 4th place votes and five 5th place votes. Having the 3rd most points among defensemen got him those votes.

I would argue generally analytics don’t say Ghost is particularly great at 5v5 defense. He’s not bad at it though even as he had sheltered minutes as a 4th-5th defenseman. He wasn’t as sheltered as Gustafson because he doesn’t suck at defense like him, but he was used for offense. Provorov and Sanheim were the work horses, Braun was a defensive assignment guy.

A team does need to generate offense from the blue line, you can’t just get scoring from forwards. Sometimes you make sacrifices in terms of defense for that offense because you don’t have amazing productive two-way defensemen available to you.

I don’t even know how predictive defensive stats are of future performances and that’s just in terms of current teams with the same players. Even different pairing effect defensemen significantly, defensive stats didn’t predict a whole lot about Trouba’s and Morrissey’s future apart. I actually have no idea which defensive stats are more useful as predictors, I really only a know more about how offensive stats are predictors. Defensive stats are informative to me but I don’t know how actual analytic guys on team even approach defensive data. I don’t think the public data and broad stroke takes work great for defense but some people have much more detailed modeling of their own with this stuff. I’ve always meant to look into it more but haven’t. I’m not saying they aren’t predictors, I personally just don’t know. (Note: not a big math person, do zero modeling or any of this myself etc)

Ghost has had a knee issues and a slow unproductive offensive defensive man is definitely not worth his contract. Non-elite offensive defensive tend to ebb and flow like the tide, I don’t care enough where Ghost is at. It’s always funny to me when they shoot better and suddenly their whole game gets chatted up.

Wheeler does love his little zippy mobile puck-moving offensive defensemen though. In 2020 Devils prospect review he thought Ty Smith was underrated and did take in pride in that in 2021 edition. He also thought Reilly Walsh was underrated in 2020 prospect review and he still likes him as a potential 4-5 NHL dman in 2021. But he did have Okhotiuk and Vukojevic on our list too, and Zaitsev on the 2020 list. Just lower.

When we got David Quenneville in Greene trade I get to read him pour one out for him on Jan 20, 2020.

I really liked Quenneville. I really did. I knew he was a long shot but I believed he had a chance. He can rip the puck, he can delay with the puck to create seams, he can run a power play, he’s strong on his feet for 5-foot-8 and he’s physical. He just can’t defend, at least not at the pro level. And it’s less about his size than it is about his skating never getting to where it needed to get to. Whew, he was fun to watch in junior, though.

Of course he liked David Quenneville. (He also had Quinn Hughes at #4, which was higher than pretty much everyone, but that’s his jam.)
Wheeler’s 2020 NHL prospect pool rankings: No. 24 New York Islanders

 

[Goptor]

Ghost can transition the puck, play on power play and score goals, that he gets you. He got his 6 year/4.5m deal and early fan buzz from the incredible, presumably never to be fully replicated, shooting in his sophomore, 17 goals in 64 game season in 2015-16. Ghost did have 9 goals in 41 games this season though, that’s a 18 goal in 82 game season on per game rate while 2015-16 would have been a 22 goal season.

So this season was his second best in terms of goal scoring, even though 20 points in 40 games is pretty underwhelming. His best season in terms of points is 2017-18, when he had 65 points in 78 games. If a defenseman has the equivalent of a 68 point season you probably should expect either questionable defense at times or a Norris trophy nomination. And Ghost did come in 10th in Norris voting that year, he got four 3rd place votes, three 4th place votes and five 5th place votes. Having the 3rd most points among defensemen got him those votes.

I would argue generally analytics don’t say Ghost is particularly great at 5v5 defense. He’s not bad at it though even as he had sheltered minutes as a 4th-5th defenseman. He wasn’t as sheltered as Gustafson because he doesn’t suck at defense like him, but he was used for offense. Provorov and Sanheim were the work horses, Braun was a defensive assignment guy.

A team does need to generate offense from the blue line, you can’t just get scoring from forwards. Sometimes you make sacrifices in terms of defense for that offense because you don’t have amazing productive two-way defensemen available to you.

I don’t even know how predictive defensive stats are of future performances and that’s just in terms of current teams with the same players. Even different pairing effect defensemen significantly, defensive stats didn’t predict a whole lot about Trouba’s and Morrissey’s future apart. I actually have no idea which defensive stats are more useful as predictors, I really only a know more about how offensive stats are predictors. Defensive stats are informative to me but I don’t know how actual analytic guys on team even approach defensive data. I don’t think the public data and broad stroke takes work great for defense but some people have much more detailed modeling of their own with this stuff. I’ve always meant to look into it more but haven’t. I’m not saying they aren’t predictors, I personally just don’t know. (Note: not a big math person, do zero modeling or any of this myself etc)

Ghost has had a knee issues and a slow unproductive offensive defensive man is definitely not worth his contract. Non-elite offensive defensive tend to ebb and flow like the tide, I don’t care enough where Ghost is at. It’s always funny to me when they shoot better and suddenly their whole game gets chatted up.

Wheeler does love his little zippy mobile puck-moving offensive defensemen though. In 2020 Devils prospect review he thought Ty Smith was underrated and did take in pride in that in 2021 edition. He also thought Reilly Walsh was underrated in 2020 prospect review and he still likes him as a potential 4-5 NHL dman in 2021. But he did have Okhotiuk and Vukojevic on our list too, and Zaitsev on the 2020 list. Just lower.

When we got David Quenneville in Greene trade I get to read him pour one out for him on Jan 20, 2020.



Of course he liked David Quenneville. (He also had Quinn Hughes at #4, which was higher than pretty much everyone, but that’s his jam.)
Wheeler’s 2020 NHL prospect pool rankings: No. 24 New York Islanders

That first year he had the knack of getting pucks through traffic onto the net despite not having anything that would suggest he'd be an elite goal scorer from the point. There was always a high chance that those numbers were just him being lucky.

He's in the same situation as Butcher now. He had competition as a sheltered OZone/PP defenseman and Sanheim brings more to the table than him. I was suggesting the Flyers trade him after that excellent start because this situation with Sanheim was inevitable.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Ghost can transition the puck, play on power play and score goals, that he gets you. He got his 6 year/4.5m deal and early fan buzz from the incredible, presumably never to be fully replicated, shooting in his sophomore, 17 goals in 64 game season in 2015-16. Ghost did have 9 goals in 41 games this season though, that’s a 18 goal in 82 game season on per game rate while 2015-16 would have been a 22 goal season.

So this season was his second best in terms of goal scoring, even though 20 points in 40 games is pretty underwhelming. His best season in terms of points is 2017-18, when he had 65 points in 78 games. If a defenseman has the equivalent of a 68 point season you probably should expect either questionable defense at times or a Norris trophy nomination. And Ghost did come in 10th in Norris voting that year, he got four 3rd place votes, three 4th place votes and five 5th place votes. Having the 3rd most points among defensemen got him those votes.

I would argue generally analytics don’t say Ghost is particularly great at 5v5 defense. He’s not bad at it though even as he had sheltered minutes as a 4th-5th defenseman. He wasn’t as sheltered as Gustafson because he doesn’t suck at defense like him, but he was used for offense. Provorov and Sanheim were the work horses, Braun was a defensive assignment guy.

A team does need to generate offense from the blue line, you can’t just get scoring from forwards. Sometimes you make sacrifices in terms of defense for that offense because you don’t have amazing productive two-way defensemen available to you.

I don’t even know how predictive defensive stats are of future performances and that’s just in terms of current teams with the same players. Even different pairing effect defensemen significantly, defensive stats didn’t predict a whole lot about Trouba’s and Morrissey’s future apart. I actually have no idea which defensive stats are more useful as predictors, I really only a know more about how offensive stats are predictors. Defensive stats are informative to me but I don’t know how actual analytic guys on team even approach defensive data. I don’t think the public data and broad stroke takes work great for defense but some people have much more detailed modeling of their own with this stuff. I’ve always meant to look into it more but haven’t. I’m not saying they aren’t predictors, I personally just don’t know. (Note: not a big math person, do zero modeling or any of this myself etc)

Ghost has had a knee issues and a slow unproductive offensive defensive man is definitely not worth his contract. Non-elite offensive defensive tend to ebb and flow like the tide, I don’t care enough where Ghost is at. It’s always funny to me when they shoot better and suddenly their whole game gets chatted up.

Wheeler does love his little zippy mobile puck-moving offensive defensemen though. In 2020 Devils prospect review he thought Ty Smith was underrated and did take in pride in that in 2021 edition. He also thought Reilly Walsh was underrated in 2020 prospect review and he still likes him as a potential 4-5 NHL dman in 2021. But he did have Okhotiuk and Vukojevic on our list too, and Zaitsev on the 2020 list. Just lower.

When we got David Quenneville in Greene trade I get to read him pour one out for him on Jan 20, 2020.



Of course he liked David Quenneville. (He also had Quinn Hughes at #4, which was higher than pretty much everyone, but that’s his jam.)
Wheeler’s 2020 NHL prospect pool rankings: No. 24 New York Islanders

Great post.

But yes, I think we can agree Scott Wheeler's taste in defensemen is a bit single-minded. In my opinion, it shows a lack of team-building mentality. The fact is that you can have one Gostisbehere or Gardiner or Butcher on your roster and probably get away with it -- these players create some offense, and are useful on a power play. They normally are pretty good in transition. But if you had all three of these players on your blueline simultaneously? I don't think there's any question you'd be #1 or #2 overall in the next draft lottery.

If we look at the four teams remaining in the playoffs, they all have exactly the opposite type of blueline that Scott Wheeler would be building -- and all four remaining teams have excellent bluelines. And it's not just Wheeler -- every year when I am questioned for inordinately high rankings of defensive, physical D-men like Dylan Samberg, Brock Faber, Braden Schneider, Case McCarthy, Tobias Bjornfot etc etc I think of players who were criticized for the same -- absolutely irrelevant -- "but what's their offensive upside?" argument like Adam Pelech, Scott Mayfield, David Savard, Jeff Petry, Ben Chiarot, Joel Edmundson, Erik Cernak, Brayden McNabb, Zach Whitecloud etc etc.

The top-scoring defenseman in the NHL this year was Tyson Barrie, but if I was offered Adam Pelech and his 14 points for him straight up? I would do it in a heartbeat. Pelech is a much better hockey player in my estimation, and a guy you'll win more with.

Again, I'm not putting down Scott Wheeler -- I'm a huge admirer of his hard work, eloquence, intense research and I don't need to agree with another draft analyst in order to have the utmost respect for their work. I also think he's a very good guy in general. But I respectfully and strongly disagree with his philosophy of how to build an NHL blueline.

 

[beekay414]

Got bored last night and did another mock, this time, full first round.

1. Buffalo Sabres - Owen Power | LHD | Michigan (Big-10)
2. Seattle Kraken - Matthew Beniers | C | Michigan (Big-10)
3. Anaheim Ducks - Luke Hughes | LHD | USNTDP (USHL)
4. New Jersey Devils - Brandt Clarke | RHD | Nove Zamky (SVK)
5. Columbus Blue Jackets - Mason McTavish | C | Olten (SUI)
6. Detroit Red Wings - Dylan Guenther | W | Edmonton (WHL)
7. San Jose Sharks - Simon Edvinsson | LHD | Frolunda (SHL)
8. Los Angeles Kings - Jesper Wallstedt | G | Lulea (SHL)
9. Vancouver Canucks - William Eklund | LW/C | Djurgardens IF (SHL)
10. Ottawa Senators - Chaz Lucius | C | USNTDP (USHL)
11. Arizona Coyotes - FORFEITED
12. Chicago Blackhawks - Kent Johnson | LW | Michigan (Big-10)
13. Calgary Flames - Cole Sillinger | C | Sioux Falls (USHL)
14. Philadelphia Flyers - Fabian Lysell | RW | Lulea (SHL)
15. Dallas Stars - Nikita Chibrikov | RW | St. Petersburg (KHL)
16. New York Rangers - Francesco Pinelli | C | Jesenice (SLO)
17. St. Louis Blues - Corson Ceulemans | RHD | Brooks (AJHL)
18. Winnipeg Jets - Carson Lambos | LHD | JYP (SM Liiga Jr)
19. Nashville Predators - Fedor Svechkov | C | Togliatti (VHL)
20. Edmonton Oilers - Sebastian Cossa | G | Edmonton (WHL)
21. Boston Bruins - Zachary Bolduc | C | Rimouski (QMJHL)
22. Minnesota Wild - Stanislav Svozil | LHD | Kometa Brno (CZE)
23. Detroit Red Wings (via WAS) - Brennan Othmann | LW | Olten (SUI)
24. Florida Panthers - Daniil Chayka | LHD | CSKA Moskva (KHL)
25. Columbus Blue Jackets (via TOR) - Aleksi Heimosalmi | RHD | Assat (SM Liiga Jr)
26. Minnesota Wild (via PIT) - Isak Rosen | W | Leksands (SHL)
27. Carolina Hurricanes - Xavier Bourgault | RW/C | Shawinigan (QMJHL)
28. Colorado Avalanche - Matthew Coronato | RW | Chicago (USHL)
29. Montreal Canadiens - Zachary L'Heureux | LW | Halifax (QMJHL)
30. New Jersey Devils (via NYI) - Oskar Olausson | LW | HV71 (SHL)
31. Columbus Blue Jackets (via TBL) - Simon Robertsson | RW | Skelleftea (SHL)
32. Vegas Golden Knights - Samu Tuomaala | RW | Karpat (SM Liiga Jr)

 

[Eggtimer]

Sucks so bad that two years in a row we got shafted draft position with the Preds choking and the Islanders going on a run . Drafting 20 this year would have been very nice .
Pisses me off too that the Ducks will probably go Hughes at #3. I know Clarke is a good pick but I still think Hughes will be the better of the two in the long run .

 

[glenwo2]

Sucks so bad that two years in a row we got shafted draft position with the Preds choking and the Islanders going on a run . Drafting 20 this year would have been very nice .
Pisses me off too that the Ducks will probably go Hughes at #3. I know Clarke is a good pick but I still think Hughes will be the better of the two in the long run .

I get what you're saying but there's always the issue with Luke's foot and any lingering long-term effects on it...

Still would want him but that was a bad injury he suffered recently.

 

[Devs3cups]

Sucks so bad that two years in a row we got shafted draft position with the Preds choking and the Islanders going on a run . Drafting 20 this year would have been very nice .
Pisses me off too that the Ducks will probably go Hughes at #3. I know Clarke is a good pick but I still think Hughes will be the better of the two in the long run .

I get the feeling Anaheim goes Edvinsson or Eklund, who wouldn’t be bad picks at all imo. I think the top 2 is probably a lock with Power and Beniers. Honestly, I’m just happy we’re coming out of there with a stud, and probably our cornerstone d-man, whoever that might be at our pick.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Got bored last night and did another mock, this time, full first round.

1. Buffalo Sabres - Owen Power | LHD | Michigan (Big-10)
2. Seattle Kraken - Matthew Beniers | C | Michigan (Big-10)
3. Anaheim Ducks - Luke Hughes | LHD | USNTDP (USHL)
4. New Jersey Devils - Brandt Clarke | RHD | Nove Zamky (SVK)
5. Columbus Blue Jackets - Mason McTavish | C | Olten (SUI)
6. Detroit Red Wings - Dylan Guenther | W | Edmonton (WHL)
7. San Jose Sharks - Simon Edvinsson | LHD | Frolunda (SHL)
8. Los Angeles Kings - Jesper Wallstedt | G | Lulea (SHL)
9. Vancouver Canucks - William Eklund | LW/C | Djurgardens IF (SHL)
10. Ottawa Senators - Chaz Lucius | C | USNTDP (USHL)
11. Arizona Coyotes - FORFEITED
12. Chicago Blackhawks - Kent Johnson | LW | Michigan (Big-10)
13. Calgary Flames - Cole Sillinger | C | Sioux Falls (USHL)
14. Philadelphia Flyers - Fabian Lysell | RW | Lulea (SHL)
15. Dallas Stars - Nikita Chibrikov | RW | St. Petersburg (KHL)
16. New York Rangers - Francesco Pinelli | C | Jesenice (SLO)
17. St. Louis Blues - Corson Ceulemans | RHD | Brooks (AJHL)
18. Winnipeg Jets - Carson Lambos | LHD | JYP (SM Liiga Jr)
19. Nashville Predators - Fedor Svechkov | C | Togliatti (VHL)
20. Edmonton Oilers - Sebastian Cossa | G | Edmonton (WHL)
21. Boston Bruins - Zachary Bolduc | C | Rimouski (QMJHL)
22. Minnesota Wild - Stanislav Svozil | LHD | Kometa Brno (CZE)
23. Detroit Red Wings (via WAS) - Brennan Othmann | LW | Olten (SUI)
24. Florida Panthers - Daniil Chayka | LHD | CSKA Moskva (KHL)
25. Columbus Blue Jackets (via TOR) - Aleksi Heimosalmi | RHD | Assat (SM Liiga Jr)
26. Minnesota Wild (via PIT) - Isak Rosen | W | Leksands (SHL)
27. Carolina Hurricanes - Xavier Bourgault | RW/C | Shawinigan (QMJHL)
28. Colorado Avalanche - Matthew Coronato | RW | Chicago (USHL)
29. Montreal Canadiens - Zachary L'Heureux | LW | Halifax (QMJHL)
30. New Jersey Devils (via NYI) - Oskar Olausson | LW | HV71 (SHL)
31. Columbus Blue Jackets (via TBL) - Simon Robertsson | RW | Skelleftea (SHL)
32. Vegas Golden Knights - Samu Tuomaala | RW | Karpat (SM Liiga Jr)

This is a very good mock.

Would be even better if Minnesota took Olausson at #26 and we got Rosen at #30 though, haha.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I get the feeling Anaheim goes Edvinsson or Eklund, who wouldn’t be bad picks at all imo. I think the top 2 is probably a lock with Power and Beniers. Honestly, I’m just happy we’re coming out of there with a stud, and probably our cornerstone d-man, whoever that might be at our pick.

Anaheim does not ever ever draft under-sized forwards in the top 20 picks. Eklund is out at #3, you can count on it.

 

[beekay414]

This is a very good mock.

Would be even better if Minnesota took Olausson at #26 and we got Rosen at #30 though, haha.

Can't get too greedy lol

 

[Devs3cups]

Anaheim does not ever ever draft under-sized forwards in the top 20 picks. Eklund is out at #3, you can count on it.

I'll take your word on it, I know Anaheim usually goes big in the first round, just thought it could be a probability since he's a really good prospect imo, but you're probably right.

What are your thoughts on Edvinsson at #3 for Anaheim though? Don't think that would be a stretch. Big, swedish d-man, looks like a fit for Anaheim in my books, even though they went Drysdale last draft.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'll take your word on it, I know Anaheim usually goes big in the first round, just thought it could be a probability since he's a really good prospect imo, but you're probably right.

What are your thoughts on Edvinsson at #3 for Anaheim though? Don't think that would be a stretch. Big, swedish d-man, looks like a fit for Anaheim in my books, even though they went Drysdale last draft.

I'd say Edvinsson is quite possible to Anaheim, if Beniers and Powers are off the board. My #1 bet would be Luke Hughes, though. My dark horse would be McTavish.

 

[My3Sons]

I'd say Edvinsson is quite possible to Anaheim, if Beniers and Powers are off the board. My #1 bet would be Luke Hughes, though. My dark horse would be McTavish.

I’m not sure about Hughes to Anaheim. For a while I thought it was an obvious choice for them but I’m not sure now. First - he’s not a sure fire point producer to me. He seems to be more of a transitional guy from what I’ve read. Second - he’s coming off a serious injury. Third - he’s a finesse guy so even if he’s taller he’s not likely to be a “bigger” player in the Anaheim mold. Fourth - Does he pair with Drysdale? You aren’t picking a guy at three to play on a second pair. Two finesse skating defenders on one pair doesn’t scream Anaheim to me.
Fifth - in terms of measurables you might get just as much if not more with Edvinsson who may actually be someone you could pair easily with Drysdale.

Just my thoughts extrapolating from your Anaheim draft profile. That said, Anaheim has snagged defenders from NJ in the past and in my view at last year’s draft so we will see.

 

[Xirik]

I’m not sure about Hughes to Anaheim. For a while I thought it was an obvious choice for them but I’m not sure now. First - he’s not a sure fire point producer to me. He seems to be more of a transitional guy from what I’ve read. Second - he’s coming off a serious injury. Third - he’s a finesse guy so even if he’s taller he’s not likely to be a “bigger” player in the Anaheim mold. Fourth - Does he pair with Drysdale? You aren’t picking a guy at three to play on a second pair. Two finesse skating defenders on one pair doesn’t scream Anaheim to me.
Fifth - in terms of measurables you might get just as much if not more with Edvinsson who may actually be someone you could pair easily with Drysdale.

Just my thoughts extrapolating from your Anaheim draft profile. That said, Anaheim has snagged defenders from NJ in the past and in my view at last year’s draft so we will see.

With Luke Hughes I think the hope is that because of his "biggyness" He won't be knocked off the puck or be pushed around like other finesse defenseman are. If that is the case I could see a Drysdale/Hughes pairing working quite well.

 

[nugg]

I’m not sure about Hughes to Anaheim. For a while I thought it was an obvious choice for them but I’m not sure now. First - he’s not a sure fire point producer to me. He seems to be more of a transitional guy from what I’ve read. Second - he’s coming off a serious injury. Third - he’s a finesse guy so even if he’s taller he’s not likely to be a “bigger” player in the Anaheim mold. Fourth - Does he pair with Drysdale? You aren’t picking a guy at three to play on a second pair. Two finesse skating defenders on one pair doesn’t scream Anaheim to me.
Fifth - in terms of measurables you might get just as much if not more with Edvinsson who may actually be someone you could pair easily with Drysdale.

Just my thoughts extrapolating from your Anaheim draft profile. That said, Anaheim has snagged defenders from NJ in the past and in my view at last year’s draft so we will see.

Drysdale shoots right handed, so a left/right with Luke could be a possibility in a few years. No idea if their styles would make a great pairing though. I would imagine at least very good if they both pan out.

 

[Smitty426]

Are we really worried about losing Bastian? That isn't even a papercut.

No it isn't but I like that 4th line alot.
So value wise you're right
Depth wise I'd like him to stay

 

[aboriginal]

Don’t want to lose bastian. Having a reliable and impactful fourth line is such an overlooked thing. Those three are far more effective season long than someone like johnsson will ever be here.

 

[Guadana]

Great post.

But yes, I think we can agree Scott Wheeler's taste in defensemen is a bit single-minded. In my opinion, it shows a lack of team-building mentality. The fact is that you can have one Gostisbehere or Gardiner or Butcher on your roster and probably get away with it -- these players create some offense, and are useful on a power play. They normally are pretty good in transition. But if you had all three of these players on your blueline simultaneously? I don't think there's any question you'd be #1 or #2 overall in the next draft lottery.

If we look at the four teams remaining in the playoffs, they all have exactly the opposite type of blueline that Scott Wheeler would be building -- and all four remaining teams have excellent bluelines. And it's not just Wheeler -- every year when I am questioned for inordinately high rankings of defensive, physical D-men like Dylan Samberg, Brock Faber, Braden Schneider, Case McCarthy, Tobias Bjornfot etc etc I think of players who were criticized for the same -- absolutely irrelevant -- "but what's their offensive upside?" argument like Adam Pelech, Scott Mayfield, David Savard, Jeff Petry, Ben Chiarot, Joel Edmundson, Erik Cernak, Brayden McNabb, Zach Whitecloud etc etc.

The top-scoring defenseman in the NHL this year was Tyson Barrie, but if I was offered Adam Pelech and his 14 points for him straight up? I would do it in a heartbeat. Pelech is a much better hockey player in my estimation, and a guy you'll win more with.

Again, I'm not putting down Scott Wheeler -- I'm a huge admirer of his hard work, eloquence, intense research and I don't need to agree with another draft analyst in order to have the utmost respect for their work. I also think he's a very good guy in general. But I respectfully and strongly disagree with his philosophy of how to build an NHL blueline.

Your words in God ears. Hope devils will cement defensive line and Fitz will find chances to make this team stronger when thing goes on devils half of the ice. Conference finalists are full of guys who can push off players from their trajectories, stands on the feet on the slot, win the board battles.
I have my own crazy plan to trade Smith for Sanderson and Severson for something big after next season, but I understand that will never happen. Anyway I really hope Fitz will understand a narrative today trends of successful teams.

Don’t want to lose bastian. Having a reliable and impactful fourth line is such an overlooked thing. Those three are far more effective season long than someone like johnsson will ever be here.

Absolutely agree. Everyone who don’t want to trade second round(or even late first) for saving him don’t understand that devils will need to spend 3-4 years to grow player from that pick, and even than we don’t have any guarantee this man will be Nhl player. Anyone who watched games, not numbers or heat circles on paper will know what kind of impact Bastian makes, why his +/-0 is second best from forwards and how long devils didn’t have this kind of player.

 

[KovalSNIPE]

Don’t want to lose bastian. Having a reliable and impactful fourth line is such an overlooked thing. Those three are far more effective season long than someone like johnsson will ever be here.

While it's nice to have Bastian, he is very replaceable.

 

[aboriginal]

While it's nice to have Bastian, he is very replaceable.

Alone yes, but just like voltron, you need al the parts to fight giant space doodads and carbuncles. And the 3 of those maroons make up an effective 4th line together. Remove one of them and it might suck completely. I would rather have a functioning and reliable 4th line every game instead of a streaky as f*** player like johnsson. Yes 4th liners are replaceable but so are ineffective players like johnsson. That said, whatever happens, happens, but I’d prefer to keep that 4th line together.

 

[Lindys Lazy Eye]

While it's nice to have Bastian, he is very replaceable.

Ryan Carter was probably 'replaceable'
Stephen Gionta was probably 'replaceable'
Steve Bernier was probably 'replaceable'

But together they made a hell of 4th line unit.

Individual players could probably be replaceable but team chemistry isn't.