Rumor: 2021-22 Trade Rumors and FA Part 4: Because I don't like Roman numerals

[Northern Avs Fan]

I seriously doubt there's even an inclination in the Avs front office to give up on Byram after what they saw this season. This is all armchair GM drivel.

Seems like every year a team's fanbase starts asking for blue chip prospects for rental UFAs, it never happens unless the guy comes with a nice long contract already agreed to. And even that is rare.

Yeah, I mean if the Blackhawks want to move Alex Debrincat, then sure I’d have a conversation about that, but no chance for pending UFA’s.

I think showing loyalty to the guy now through his challenges is not only the right thing to do, but could also provide potential gains down the road. There’s just no way at this point that he’s getting a big contract coming out of his ELC. So the Avs could potentially get a top pair defenceman for something like $4M. Of course there’s the risk that he just never comes back right from the concussions, but that’s a pretty rare thing these days.

 

[Andrew Wiggin]

Let's play a game...

Guess the player:

View attachment 505167

Delete

 

[Richard88]

Lehkonen?

My number 1 target would be Laine. Everything triangulates with him: young, team control, Finnish, friends with Rantanen, Fortnite. I would trade Byram+ for him

That's a bingo

How would you plan on paying Laine without losing another core player?

 

[Avsboy]

That's a bingo

How would you plan on paying Laine without losing another core player?

I remembered that full looking chart regarding Lehkonen posted somewhere. I may not know what it means but I have a good visual memory (studied biochemistry).

I imagine Laine could slot in once Kadri is gone, JTC and Jost are traded, and probably Girard. That still leaves EJ’s money for Mack.

 

[Richard88]

I remembered that full looking chart regarding Lehkonen posted somewhere. I may not know what it means but I have a good visual memory (studied biochemistry).

I imagine Laine could slot in once Kadri is gone, JTC and Jost are traded, and probably Girard. That still leaves EJ’s money for Mack.

I figured that it would be easy enough to figure out given the elite possession metrics but zero finish.

Having 3 wingers earning $7-9m wouldn't be a very smart way to build a cup contender. If we're going to trade Byram it should only be for a high end center with term. Also, if you trade Byram for Laine and then also Girard for capspace as you suggested, our defense is going to start looking pretty weak.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

With the Jets struggling, it’s time to reignite the Stastny to Colorado rumours.

Personally I’d love to see a Jost + prospect for Stastny deal at the deadline. He’s quietly having a very good season and could provide great versatility to the bottom-6.

Captain - MacK - Rants
Nuke - Kadri - Bura
NAK - Newhook - Compher
Helm - Stastny - LOC

Or, if you want to load up a more skilled 3rd line:

Captain - MacK - Rants
Nuke - Kadri - Bura
Newhook - Stastny - Compher
NAK - Maltsev - LOC

Lots of interesting possibilities and I can’t imagine Walnuts would be crazy expensive to acquire.

 

[dahrougem2]

With the Jets struggling, it’s time to reignite the Stastny to Colorado rumours.

Personally I’d love to see a Jost + prospect for Stastny deal at the deadline. He’s quietly having a very good season and could provide great versatility to the bottom-6.

Captain - MacK - Rants
Nuke - Kadri - Bura
NAK - Newhook - Compher
Helm - Stastny - LOC

Or, if you want to load up a more skilled 3rd line:

Captain - MacK - Rants
Nuke - Kadri - Bura
Newhook - Stastny - Compher
NAK - Maltsev - LOC

Lots of interesting possibilities and I can’t imagine Walnuts would be crazy expensive.

I can't imagine Walnuts actually wants to play here, either.

Let's not forget: he's had numerous opportunities to return to the Avalanche and has chosen not to. I doubt Stastny is a player Sakic actually wants to target.

 

[Spleenless Wonder21]

Just thinking about this summer. What do y'all think of Vincent Trocheck as a potential UFA target? Too rich/too old? At some point there is going to be a crop of UFA's taking less than they normally would because the RFAs are signing so much larger deals. Hoping with the flat cap that might come into play to help us along with our team being contenders and hopefully signing players to help defend a title.

Love Tro, hate his injury proneness on top of his age.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

I can't imagine Walnuts actually wants to play here, either.

Let's not forget: he's had numerous opportunities to return to the Avalanche and has chosen not to. I doubt Stastny is a player Sakic actually wants to target.

Do you think he still holds a grudge over something that happened like a decade ago?

Why wouldn’t they want him? He’d be a huge upgrade over Jost. It would also allow them to load up a better 3rd line if they wanted to put Newhook on the wing.

Getting the Giroux’s and Miller’s of the world isn’t all that likely imo.

 

[dahrougem2]

Do you think he still holds a grudge over something that happened like a decade ago?

Why wouldn’t they want him? He’d be a huge upgrade over Jost. It would also allow them to load up a better 3rd line if they wanted to put Newhook on the wing.

Getting the Giroux’s and Miller’s of the world isn’t all that likely imo.

Who knows. All we know is Stastny has been a UFA a few times and has always decided against playing in Colorado again, even when there was reportedly Avalanche interest in him returning.

Besides, I'd much rather pay the higher price for the vastly superior player in Giroux.

 

[Richard88]

What are people's thoughts on Colin Miller as a deadline rental?

Right now he's injured but is expected back in early March about 2 weeks before the trade deadline on March 21st.

Obviously the ideal addition would be a big defensive RHD (eg. Manson), but Sakic hasn't tended to go for the big deadline fish but instead typically targets the secondary market where rental prices are in the mid-round pick range (eg. 4th for Namestnikov; 4th for Nemeth 50% retained; 3rd for Brassard + 6th).

Miller played in the cup final with Vegas so he'd tick the 'playoff experience' box which Sakic values highly. His analytics with Buffalo have been middling (eg. 0.4 GSVA this year as per chart below), but the last time he was on a good team his metrics were stellar (see chart at the bottom from his season with Boston/Vegas).

In terms of usage he can play all situations and both sides, though he'd probably slot onto the 3rd pairing next to the more defensively-oriented Murray or Jack Johnson, along with the 2nd PK unit.

Toews ------ Makar
Girard ------ EJ
Murray/JJ - Miller

His caphit this season is $3.85m so retention would be needed to get it down to for example $1.925m (50% ret.), or $962.5k (double retained).

Even with retention the price to acquire Miller will probably be reasonably low given that he'll be coming off injury. The market will also be pretty saturated with numerous sellers too, and most contenders will probably be focused on other RHD's like Manson, Klingberg, Ristolainen, Braun, and Stralman. Perhaps something like a 3rd to Buffalo + a 4th/5th for double retention would get it done.

FYI his metrics from the last time he played on a good team:

 

[Gruyeriev]

What are people's thoughts on Colin Miller as a deadline rental?

Right now he's injured but is expected back in early March about 2 weeks before the trade deadline on March 21st.

Obviously the ideal addition would be a big defensive RHD (eg. Manson), but Sakic hasn't tended to go for the big deadline fish but instead typically targets the secondary market where rental prices are in the mid-round pick range (eg. 4th for Namestnikov; 4th for Nemeth 50% retained; 3rd for Brassard + 6th).

Miller played in the cup final with Vegas so he'd tick the 'playoff experience' box which Sakic values highly. His analytics with Buffalo have been middling (eg. 0.4 GSVA this year as per chart below), but the last time he was on a good team his metrics were stellar (see chart at the bottom from his season with Boston/Vegas).

In terms of usage he can play all situations and both sides, though he'd probably slot onto the 3rd pairing next to the more defensively-oriented Murray or Jack Johnson, along with the 2nd PK unit.

Toews ------ Makar
Girard ------ EJ
Murray/JJ - Miller

His caphit this season is $3.85m so retention would be needed to get it down to for example $1.925m (50% ret.), or $962.5k (double retained).

Even with retention the price to acquire Miller will probably be reasonably low given that he'll be coming off injury. The market will also be pretty saturated with numerous sellers too, and most contenders will probably be focused on other RHD's like Manson, Klingberg, Ristolainen, Braun, and Stralman. Perhaps something like a 3rd to Buffalo + a 4th/5th for double retention would get it done.


View attachment 505215



FYI his metrics from the last time he played on a good team:

He’d be a great buy low candidate but I’m not sure he helps us in the right way. If he were on the third pairing that would just push Murray, JJ or EJ back up to #4. I don’t think that is ideal. We really need someone to slot in next to Girard.

Makar and Toews are great together. No one really fits with Girard. EJ was pretty good there like 2 years ago but he seems to have fallen off a cliff. I’m not sure who is a fit that is available. Big but also mobile and intelligent. I’m not sure that’s Manson either. Really someone like Cernak would be ideal.

 

[The Merchant]

I agree that if Giroux opens it up to any contender and goes to a bidding war the Avs are out of it. It was really only realistic to begin with if Giroux picks Colorado.

But man I'm surprised so many people here are putting any level of trust in this NRD guy. He seems like Dater on even more crack to me...

He's a legit insider. Chicklets go to bat for him, but more importantly his drip-feed info almost always gets repeated by the high profile insiders days after he reports it.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Who knows. All we know is Stastny has been a UFA a few times and has always decided against playing in Colorado again, even when there was reportedly Avalanche interest in him returning.

Besides, I'd much rather pay the higher price for the vastly superior player in Giroux.

Oh, for sure. I’d rather have Giroux too, but I’m expecting his price to be too high for the Avs.

 

[Gruyeriev]

Who knows. All we know is Stastny has been a UFA a few times and has always decided against playing in Colorado again, even when there was reportedly Avalanche interest in him returning.

Besides, I'd much rather pay the higher price for the vastly superior player in Giroux.

I think Paul liked Denver plenty. I always felt like it was about ice time. He saw himself as a top 6C but the writing was on the wall when he went to St. Louis that he would be a 3C here moving forward.

After St. Louis I’m not sure we ever had interest in bringing him back. I always was a Stastny fan. I loved his dad as a player. Not sure how he would be in a bottom 6 role for us. We lack finish across the board in the bottom 6.

 

[Richard88]

He’d be a great buy low candidate but I’m not sure he helps us in the right way. If he were on the third pairing that would just push Murray, JJ or EJ back up to #4. I don’t think that is ideal. We really need someone to slot in next to Girard.

Makar and Toews are great together. No one really fits with Girard. EJ was pretty good there like 2 years ago but he seems to have fallen off a cliff. I’m not sure who is a fit that is available. Big but also mobile and intelligent. I’m not sure that’s Manson either. Really someone like Cernak would be ideal.

Yeah I completely agree with that. In an ideal world we would acquire a solid defensive RHD to pair with Girard on the 2nd pair, but that's realistically going to cost a tonne - if there are even any such options available to begin with (barring doing something like throwing an offer at Ottawa for Artem Zub that they can't refuse).

Having suffered through the Patrick Nemeth experiment last year I'm not sure going the cheap route for a 'shutdown' Dman with poor skating and puck-handling again is the answer either (eg. Braun). Perhaps we'd be better off doubling down on Dmen who can skate and move the puck well. Or alternatively just throwing Barron or Helleson in and seeing if they sink or swim.

As @S E P H mentioned a few days ago perhaps we'd also be well-served targeting one or two defensively sound bottom 6 forwards to bulk up the bottom 6 a bit and thereby insulate the likes of EJ/Murray/JJ a bit more. JJ and Murray (or JJ/Murray - Miller in the proposal above) would be more than passable on the 3rd pairing if the bottom 6 forwards are collectively strong defensively.

 

[Balthazar]

What are people's thoughts on Colin Miller as a deadline rental?

He's (seriously) injured.

Miller has undergone surgery to address an undisclosed injury and will be sidelined for at least six weeks.

 

[Richard88]

He's (seriously) injured.

Miller has undergone surgery to address an undisclosed injury and will be sidelined for at least six weeks.

6 weeks from the day he had surgery (Jan. 20th) has him returning on March 3rd, which is 18 days before the deadline. Obviously predicting return dates isn't an exact science, but it seems like he should be back on the ice before the deadline.

 

[Richard88]

Maybe Lyubushkin is the answer...

 

[niwotsblessing]

I think Paul liked Denver plenty. I always felt like it was about ice time. He saw himself as a top 6C but the writing was on the wall when he went to St. Louis that he would be a 3C here moving forward.

After St. Louis I’m not sure we ever had interest in bringing him back. I always was a Stastny fan. I loved his dad as a player. Not sure how he would be in a bottom 6 role for us. We lack finish across the board in the bottom 6.

The Avs have not been an attractive FA landing spot until recently. Perhaps a last Cup run (or 3) with appeal to Paul.

 

[Gruyeriev]

Maybe Lyubushkin is the answer...

He is intriguing. I’ll admit I'm not familiar with him at all. I don’t like that he has no PK experience there. Not sure if that’s opportunity or what?

 

[Zandar]

We really need someone to slot in next to Girard.

Hmmm wonder what Helleson would look like paired with G.

 

[Gruyeriev]

Hmmm wonder what Helleson would look like paired with G.

Right now overwhelmed
In two years like a boss!

at this point that might be the cheapest option and best chance of getting him to sign with us.

 

[Richard88]

He is intriguing. I’ll admit I'm not familiar with him at all. I don’t like that he has no PK experience there. Not sure if that’s opportunity or what?

Those charts probably don't include his PK data due to a small sample size. It's only this season that he's started being a regular on the PK for Arizona.

Lyubushkin's 4v5 TOI:

He's one of Arizona's top 3 PK'ers this season though (as per charts below). I don't have access to the xGF/xGA charts though (they're behind the HockeyViz paywall) so I can't tell you how he's doing.

 

[Balthazar]

Dubas in his presser today basically said the exact same thing as I've been saying here for weeks.

Leafs are in a similar position than the Avs and Dubas said that they have limited assets and would prefer not to trade them for pending UFA's at the deadline but for players with term instead.

Smart.