Line Combos: 2021-22 Edition

[Brian39]

Perron ROR Buch
Saad Schenn Kyrou
Sanford Thomas Tarasenko
Barbashev Sundqvist Clifford

The bottom 6 is a pretty clear weakness here and a lot depends on how Saad fits with Schenn. If they don't mesh well, we may need Thomas to really step up and carry the load.

I can't say I agree that the bottom 6 is a pretty clear weakness in that group.

Sanford has been a fine possession/cycle player throughout his career, Thomas has been an adequate 3rd line player throughout his career and Tarasenko should be a one-dimensional scoring threat against 3rd line competition. I wouldn't say that group is a lock as a top 5-10 3rd line in the league, but that shouldn't be worse than an average 3rd line. If Tarasenko is a 20-25 goal guy again and Thomas plays like he did in 2019/20 then that is a high end 3rd line.

As for the 4th line, Sunny is one of the best 4th line centers in the league and Barby is a decent 4th line winger. I'd prefer a different player in there instead of Clifford, but I think that is a decent core of a 4th line.

I don't know that I'd be comfortable calling that a top-end bottom 6, but I wouldn't consider it a weakness.

 

[Thallis]

I can't say I agree that the bottom 6 is a pretty clear weakness in that group.

Sanford has been a fine possession/cycle player throughout his career, Thomas has been an adequate 3rd line player throughout his career and Tarasenko should be a one-dimensional scoring threat against 3rd line competition. I wouldn't say that group is a lock as a top 5-10 3rd line in the league, but that shouldn't be worse than an average 3rd line. If Tarasenko is a 20-25 goal guy again and Thomas plays like he did in 2019/20 then that is a high end 3rd line.

As for the 4th line, Sunny is one of the best 4th line centers in the league and Barby is a decent 4th line winger. I'd prefer a different player in there instead of Clifford, but I think that is a decent core of a 4th line.

I don't know that I'd be comfortable calling that a top-end bottom 6, but I wouldn't consider it a weakness.

Barbashev has been a replacement level player every year of his career and one of the worst in the league over the past 3. He's not good on offense or defense. Obviously, lots of 4th liners aren't but there's some that are at least decent defenders. Tarasenko shouldn't be considered a mainstay on that 3rd line but it's kind of a Frankenstein to begin with. Sanford can continue the cycle, but isn't great at starting it or converting it to chances. Thomas is best off the rush, but that doesn't help Sanford or Tarasenko much. Maybe Tarasenko can eat 3rd line competition, but he'd need to be a lot stronger along the wall than he has been recently, and Sanford and Thomas aren't the puck hounds he's had success with in his career.

 

[Brian39]

The longer Bozak goes in to summer without an NHL deal, the more confident I am that he is a Blue next year. If he was going to leave the Blues for another team it would have happened already. He's got at least 1 school-aged kid and schools are starting in about 2 weeks. We've hit the point where switching teams means living separate from his family for a year or moving them abruptly (and possibly right after/as school starts). If he was going to sign somewhere else, he would have done it already and started that process. We only have 5 guys in the organization who are NHL-caliber centers and one of them is coming off ACL surgery with a re-evaluation date after training camp starts. Another is a career 43.5% at the dot and has played his best hockey as a winger. After the injury shit show we saw at the center position last year, I have a very hard time believing that Army isn't planning to add another guy who is capable of playing center like an NHL-caliber player. We can give him a contract with an easy to hit GP bonus that will pay him fairly but fit him under the cap like a $1M player to start the season. His return makes too much sense for both sides for me to not pencil him into the lineup. Until he signs elsewhere or announces retirement, I'm penciling him into the lines.

I'm also assuming that Sunny isn't ready to start the year. With all that said here are my lines without a Tarasenko trade:

Perron-ROR-Tarasenko
Saad-Schenn-Buch
Bozak-Thomas-Kyrou
Sanford-Barby-Kostin

With a Tarasenko trade:

Perron-ROR-Kyrou/Buch
Saad-Schenn-Buch/Kyrou
Bozak-Thomas-Kostin
Sanford-Barby-Mac

 

[Brian39]

Barbashev has been a replacement level player every year of his career and one of the worst in the league over the past 3. He's not good on offense or defense. Obviously, lots of 4th liners aren't but there's some that are at least decent defenders. Tarasenko shouldn't be considered a mainstay on that 3rd line but it's kind of a Frankenstein to begin with. Sanford can continue the cycle, but isn't great at starting it or converting it to chances. Thomas is best off the rush, but that doesn't help Sanford or Tarasenko much. Maybe Tarasenko can eat 3rd line competition, but he'd need to be a lot stronger along the wall than he has been recently, and Sanford and Thomas aren't the puck hounds he's had success with in his career.

Over the last 3 seasons Barby has paced at 13 goals and 28 points in an overwhelmingly 4th line role. He hasn't been in the top 10 of Blues forwards in EV TOI per game in any of those 3 seasons and consistently is left in his 4th line role through injuries while other guys are plugged in to fill holes in the top 9. Additionally, our 4th line has pretty consistently been deployed in hugely defensive roles in the last 2+ years. Replacement-level offense is absolutely not 13 goals and 28 points a year in a defensive oriented, 4th line role playing roughly 10 minutes a night at even strength and almost no PP time. You aren't getting 30+ even strength goals out of a 4th line filled with waiver fodder.

His shot is above NHL average (not replacement level, but the average NHL player across all forwards). He's played 270 NHL games with a career shooting percentage of 17%. His shot is easily his biggest asset and that just so happens to be an asset that is fully ignored by every possession/predictive/advanced model that deems him replacement level or below.

There are plenty of flaws to Barby's game and I don't think he has the vision to be more than a bottom 6 guy who can surprise goalies with his shot. But it is just not true to say that he isn't good offensively by 4th line standards. He is better in the offensive zone than most replacement level and 4th line level guys. And that is really all you are asking out of your 11th forward when you are comparing your 4th line to others around the league.

Edit: over the past 3 years Barby is in a 10-way tie for 201st among NHL forwards for even strength goals scored. He is a +5 over that stretch, so it isn't like we are bleeding goals when he's been on the ice. I'm not trying to say that he's an amazing player and deserves more time. I think he is well suited to his role. My point is simply that replacement-level guys getting 10 minutes a night in a defense-first role aren't going to chip in 11 even strength goals a year for you. At the end of the day, Barby and Sunny were 66% of a 4th line that was viewed as a major strength of a Cup winning team. Steen played a hell of a big role on that line, but Barby is absolutely a good enough player to not turn a 4th line into an obvious weakness with his presence.

 

[BlueMed]

Barbashev has been a replacement level player every year of his career and one of the worst in the league over the past 3. He's not good on offense or defense. Obviously, lots of 4th liners aren't but there's some that are at least decent defenders. Tarasenko shouldn't be considered a mainstay on that 3rd line but it's kind of a Frankenstein to begin with. Sanford can continue the cycle, but isn't great at starting it or converting it to chances. Thomas is best off the rush, but that doesn't help Sanford or Tarasenko much. Maybe Tarasenko can eat 3rd line competition, but he'd need to be a lot stronger along the wall than he has been recently, and Sanford and Thomas aren't the puck hounds he's had success with in his career.

I'm not sure where you came up with that. Barbashev is a good 4th liner and would likely play on the 3rd line on a handful of teams in this league. He's a two way player with good physicality and can play the penalty kill. What kind of offense or defense are you expecting from him?

Apparently this guy is one of the worst replacement players in the league...I guess he's more of an AHL player, right?

 

[illinidave]

Perron-ROR-Buch
Saad-Schenn-Tarasenko
Sanford-Thomas-Kyrou
Kostin-Barbashev-Sundqvist

Krug-Parayko
Scandella-Faulk
Mikkola-Bortuzzo

 

[Quaz]

All under 25 lineup:

Kostin Thomas Kyrou
Neighbours Boduc Robertsson
McGing Dickinson Peterson
Washkuruk Alexandrov Toropchenko

Mikkola Perunovich
Tucker Kessel
Loof Reinke

 

[MissouriMook]

...over the past 3 years Barby is in a 10-way tie for 201st among NHL forwards for even strength goals scored...

Well said with your entire post.

For perspective, I clipped this particular piece of data. There are 31 team in the NHL and when you divide 31 into 201 you get 6.48 - that means on the average NHL team he is the 6th to 7th best forward in terms of even strength goals despite being given 4th line minutes and primarily a checking role. "Replacement level" my ass.

 

[Ranksu]

Midget lineup

Krug - Faulk
Walman - Reinke
Perunovich - Loof

 

[izzy]

Forward group looks so good, but that defensive group scares me no matter how its set up..

 

[Mike Liut]

Perron-ROR-Buch
Saad-Schenn-Tarasenko
Sanford-Thomas-Kyrou
Kostin-Barbashev-Sundqvist

Krug-Parayko
Scandella-Faulk
Mikkola-Bortuzzo

Pretty spot on to mine, but I might swap Kostin and Sanford. We’ve definitely added some size with this lineup with Kostin, Mikkola, Buch and Saad over last years lineup. I really like the look of this roster, especially if Tarasenko is healthy and plays.

 

[BlueDream]

I'm not sure where you came up with that. Barbashev is a good 4th liner and would likely play on the 3rd line on a handful of teams in this league. He's a two way player with good physicality and can play the penalty kill. What kind of offense or defense are you expecting from him?

Apparently this guy is one of the worst replacement players in the league...I guess he's more of an AHL player, right?

It comes from people that do nothing but look at an advanced stats graph and come to the determination that Barbashev is apparently one of the worst players in the entire league.

It makes no sense, but that won’t stop them from parading that opinion around as a fact.

 

[67Blues]

It comes from people that do nothing but look at an advanced stats graph and come to the determination that Barbashev is apparently one of the worst players in the entire league.

It makes no sense, but that won’t stop them from parading that opinion around as a fact.

Statistics don't lie.



Statisticians do.

 

[Brockon]

The longer Bozak goes in to summer without an NHL deal, the more confident I am that he is a Blue next year. If he was going to leave the Blues for another team it would have happened already. He's got at least 1 school-aged kid and schools are starting in about 2 weeks. We've hit the point where switching teams means living separate from his family for a year or moving them abruptly (and possibly right after/as school starts). If he was going to sign somewhere else, he would have done it already and started that process. We only have 5 guys in the organization who are NHL-caliber centers and one of them is coming off ACL surgery with a re-evaluation date after training camp starts. Another is a career 43.5% at the dot and has played his best hockey as a winger. After the injury shit show we saw at the center position last year, I have a very hard time believing that Army isn't planning to add another guy who is capable of playing center like an NHL-caliber player. We can give him a contract with an easy to hit GP bonus that will pay him fairly but fit him under the cap like a $1M player to start the season. His return makes too much sense for both sides for me to not pencil him into the lineup. Until he signs elsewhere or announces retirement, I'm penciling him into the lines.

I'm also assuming that Sunny isn't ready to start the year. With all that said here are my lines without a Tarasenko trade:

Perron-ROR-Tarasenko
Saad-Schenn-Buch
Bozak-Thomas-Kyrou
Sanford-Barby-Kostin

With a Tarasenko trade:

Perron-ROR-Kyrou/Buch
Saad-Schenn-Buch/Kyrou
Bozak-Thomas-Kostin
Sanford-Barby-Mac

I agree something is likely cooking in the front office in terms of bringing Bozak back.

But, we've got $1,531,151 in cap space and Thomas is still an RFA. We've got the room for both Bozie and Thomas using Sunny's LTIR money, but that places us in the less than ideal position of needing to make a trade early in the season to be cap compliant.

I don't see Bozak in the note unless a trade is made before training camp starts.

 

[Mike Liut]

We don’t need Bozak

 

[Blueston]

We don’t need Bozak

Unless we get back quality forward for Tank we do. Unless we want to see much more of Clifford.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

We don’t need Bozak

We might not need him, but, having him on the team makes the team better. I'd take Bozak on this team as an everyday player 10 times out of 10 instead of someone like Clifford.

 

[Mike Liut]

Perron - ROR - Buch
Saad - Schenn - Tarasenko
Sanford - Thomas - Kyrou
Kostin - Barbs - Sunny

I just don’t see Bozak making this lineup any better. I wouldn’t even start him with this lineup. If he’s a depth player, then sure, if we can afford him.

 

[Blueston]

Perron - ROR - Buch
Saad - Schenn - Tarasenko
Sanford - Thomas - Kyrou
Kostin - Barbs - Sunny

I just don’t see Bozak making this lineup any better. I wouldn’t even start him with this lineup. If he’s a depth player, then sure, if we can afford him.

Now try that again without Tank.

 

[Mike Liut]

Now try that again without Tank.

He’s not going anywhere. But if so, then sure, I’ll take Bozak.

 

[Thallis]

Over the last 3 seasons Barby has paced at 13 goals and 28 points in an overwhelmingly 4th line role. He hasn't been in the top 10 of Blues forwards in EV TOI per game in any of those 3 seasons and consistently is left in his 4th line role through injuries while other guys are plugged in to fill holes in the top 9. Additionally, our 4th line has pretty consistently been deployed in hugely defensive roles in the last 2+ years. Replacement-level offense is absolutely not 13 goals and 28 points a year in a defensive oriented, 4th line role playing roughly 10 minutes a night at even strength and almost no PP time. You aren't getting 30+ even strength goals out of a 4th line filled with waiver fodder.

His shot is above NHL average (not replacement level, but the average NHL player across all forwards). He's played 270 NHL games with a career shooting percentage of 17%. His shot is easily his biggest asset and that just so happens to be an asset that is fully ignored by every possession/predictive/advanced model that deems him replacement level or below.

There are plenty of flaws to Barby's game and I don't think he has the vision to be more than a bottom 6 guy who can surprise goalies with his shot. But it is just not true to say that he isn't good offensively by 4th line standards. He is better in the offensive zone than most replacement level and 4th line level guys. And that is really all you are asking out of your 11th forward when you are comparing your 4th line to others around the league.

Edit: over the past 3 years Barby is in a 10-way tie for 201st among NHL forwards for even strength goals scored. He is a +5 over that stretch, so it isn't like we are bleeding goals when he's been on the ice. I'm not trying to say that he's an amazing player and deserves more time. I think he is well suited to his role. My point is simply that replacement-level guys getting 10 minutes a night in a defense-first role aren't going to chip in 11 even strength goals a year for you. At the end of the day, Barby and Sunny were 66% of a 4th line that was viewed as a major strength of a Cup winning team. Steen played a hell of a big role on that line, but Barby is absolutely a good enough player to not turn a 4th line into an obvious weakness with his presence.

For as high as his shooting percentage is, he very rarely actually beats the goalie. 3/5 of his goals least year were from open nets. 1 was off his skate and the last was a squeaky rebound. Most of his goals in his career have been from rebounds or scrambles in front of the net. The fact that his shooting% is so high despite this is exactly the issue, he's rarely in the mix, creating those scrambles of first chances to capitalize on the second or third in comparison to the rest of the league. A big part of that is just how awful he is in the defensive zone. He was by far the worst on our team last year in that respect. He gives up the most chances in the worst areas of the ice and it wasn't particularly close. The question becomes is 10ish goals worth that? The numbers say not even close and it will eventually catch up to him.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Perron - ROR - Buch
Saad - Schenn - Tarasenko
Sanford - Thomas - Kyrou
Kostin - Barbs - Sunny

I just don’t see Bozak making this lineup any better. I wouldn’t even start him with this lineup. If he’s a depth player, then sure, if we can afford him.

I’d rather have Bozak than Sanford, especially since they’ll cost around the same.

 

[Bluesguru]

I’d rather have Bozak than Sanford, especially since they’ll cost around the same.

True. I think Sanford will be a name Army tries to include in any package deals he might have discussions on.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

He’s not going anywhere. But if so, then sure, I’ll take Bozak.

Why are we forcing someone to be here who doesn't want to be here?

 

[Majorityof1]

Why are we forcing someone to be here who doesn't want to be here?

Because he signed a contract and hasn't retired. The Blues aren't forcing anything. If Tarasenko doesn't want to be here, he can retire. If he wants his $7.5M he will have to honor his contract. Nowhere did the Blues agree to pay draft picks or retained salary to move Tarasenko the moment he demanded a trade. I am sure they have andd will continue try to find a deal that is acceptable to them. Until then its suit up or retire.