NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART XIII [We got 3-5]

[FormentonTheFuture]

That’s insane...

McDavid is the only guy that’s done that. Austin Matthews (an extremely strong #1 overall much, much better than any player in this draft) had an 88 point pace in his best year on his ELC, on an extremely offensive team.

Eichel wasn’t even a ppg on his ELC.

I like GKCs comment but didn’t realize he said by end of ELC. I don’t agree with that, but I agree with his overall thinking.

to me if all you’re going to get out of stutzle is 70 pts in his prime, you might as well take Rossi ahead of him.

 

[BondraTime]

I like GKCs comment but didn’t realize he said by end of ELC. I don’t agree with that, but I agree with his overall thinking.

to me if all you’re going to get out of stutzle is 70 pts in his prime, you might as well take Rossi ahead of him.

I think some are getting quite a bit ahead of themselves with these projections. These are lofty expectations for 1st overall guys.

If Rossi was projected as a 70 point guy he’d probably be rated higher as well.

 

[GCK]

Marner was over a PPG on his ELC and scoring keeps increasing.

 

[Philadelphia Collins]

I’m All Aboard the Raymond hype train but my only fear is that passing on a stud 67 in Rossi will come back to haunt us like White over Konecny did in 2015

trust Dorion & co. to make the right picks though. Is it October yet?

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

I think some are getting quite a bit ahead of themselves with these projections. These are lofty expectations for 1st overall guys.

If Rossi was projected as a 70 point guy he’d probably be rated higher as well.

I would project Rossi to be a 60 point guy in his prime, so if Stutzle is going to give you 70, you might as well take the player who is way better defensively. I think Stutzle has much more upside, and should be a PPG player in his prime. If 70 points is the expectation then nobody should be excited about this draft for the Sens in my opinion.

 

[BondraTime]

I would project Rossi to be a 60 point guy in his prime, so if Stutzle is going to give you 70, you might as well take the player who is way better defensively. I think Stutzle has much more upside, and should be a PPG player in his prime. If 70 points is the expectation then nobody should be excited about this draft for the Sens in my opinion.

I think people are excited for good reason. I wouldn’t be excited if I had expectations like yours though because I don’t think there is a good chance they are met.

We’ve had 4 guys score 70 points since the 05 lockout, 3 of them played on the best line in the NHL in the past 20 years.

I’d love to get a ppg guy, it could happen and it would be huge. I’m definitely not expecting that at 3 or 5.

 

[Micklebot]

Maybe 5 years ago or in a lesser draft. I expect 90 points from a top 3 pick by the end of his ELC.

Ok, so to represent a strong draft year, lets look at the last few 2nd OA picks

2017; Patrick nope, not yet.
2016: Laine nope
2015: Eichel, success! But considered an exceptional 2nd Oa
2014: Rienhart, nope
2013: Barkov; did it once so far, I'd call that a success
2012: Muuray, nope but he's a d not that any top 3 forwards that draft did much better
2011: Landeskog, not really though he did have one pts per game season
2010: Seguin, 3 pts per game seasons and some near misses so thats a success in my books

Now, scoring is about 10% the last couple years, compared to the the lowest point of the last decade, but pt per game is still a tall order for 2nd or 3rd oa.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Maybe 5 years ago or in a lesser draft. I expect 90 points from a top 3 pick by the end of his ELC.

Wow the coach is going to wonder why his recently drafted D man is always leaving the zone early and standing in front of the other teams net

 

[Pinto Bean]

This might be the most loaded draft of all time with some of the projections I'm seeing in this thread!

I don't know how any points I expect from our #3 and our #5 Overall picks, but I will say that I believe the Sens have positioned themselves nicely where whomever we get don't need to be absolute world beaters.

Although there is a glaring hole in our 1C slot, I don't think the Sens per se need a legit superstar 90pt C to fill that void. If Byfield/Stutzle can be possession monster type guys who average 60-70pts a season while integrating them with our current core of guys, the #5 pick, and future picks down the line, I still see success coming for the Sens!

A 90pt top tier C would be gravy but expecting that might leave some disappointed

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

I think people are excited for good reason. I wouldn’t be excited if I had expectations like yours though because I don’t think there is a good chance they are met.
We’ve had 4 guys score 70 points since the 05 lockout, 3 of them played on the best line in the NHL in the past 20 years.

So? We haven’t had top picks like this other than tkachuk. We had one top 6, zibanejad, who has turned into one. Mike Hoffman just scored 70 points for the panthers. I think you guys are really underselling what should be expected from the top picks in this draft. If some scours believe stutzle is close to Lad than my expectations are a lot higher.

And disappointment doesn’t mean bust or bad pick, that’s just not franchise altering in any way. We need an elite #1C to compete for the cup, and to me that’s not just a 70 point player

also 5 is a different story. I’m only talking about the #3.

 

[GCK]

I’m not expecting our 3OA to play next year so in his D+4 season I fully expect over a PPG pace.

 

[GCK]

Wow the coach is going to wonder why his recently drafted D man is always leaving the zone early and standing in front of the other teams net

If we draft a D at 3 well I’ll just be pissed.

 

[Liver King]

70 points is a lot

If we got that consistently from a top 3 pick that would be amazing, anything more than that is hitting the jackpot

I think we can get two of those guys with Byfield Stutzle Perfetti Rossi Raymond

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[JD1]

I think there's more to it than what a single player can put up from any given year.

If we go two forwards, and presumably they are both legit 1st line guys post ELC, then you have two legit 1st liners on a 1st line. We've got some potential point producing centres and we've got Batherson to compliment if #3 is a winger.

And we've got a high end PMD.

I just don't think it is as simple as a single guy being a ppg. There's a lot that goes into it including coaching, style of play, PP efficiency etc.

I think we're shaping up to have a lot of the required pieces to have a higher end offence and if we do, someone's going to have multiple ppg seasons if not more than one guy.

 

[JD1]

He certainly isn't going to be needing to add strength to play

 

[JD1]

Ok, so to represent a strong draft year, lets look at the last few 2nd OA picks

2017; Patrick nope, not yet.
2016: Laine nope
2015: Eichel, success! But considered an exceptional 2nd Oa
2014: Rienhart, nope
2013: Barkov; did it once so far, I'd call that a success
2012: Muuray, nope but he's a d not that any top 3 forwards that draft did much better
2011: Landeskog, not really though he did have one pts per game season
2010: Seguin, 3 pts per game seasons and some near misses so thats a success in my books

Now, scoring is about 10% the last couple years, compared to the the lowest point of the last decade, but pt per game is still a tall order for 2nd or 3rd oa.

Barkov has only broken ppg once, but over the past 4 seasons he's 288 games played, 288 points.

 

[DueDiligence]

I don't think 33 and 158 is enough to move up 10 spots from 21 to snag Sanderson.

Then throw in another 2nd rounder or two. I'll take another "blue chipper" over 3-4 maybes any day.

 

[Senscore]

I have trouble believing LA will pass on that.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I have trouble believing LA will pass on that.

They shouldn't

 

[DueDiligence]

Marner was over a PPG on his ELC and scoring keeps increasing.

And look where that team is. I'll take a guy who gets 70 points and also plays on a winning team.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

And look where that team is. I'll take a guy who gets 70 points and also plays on a winning team.

That’s a different scenario. I’m more than fine with a 70 point guy if he’s also a stud defensively. From what I understand, stutzle is not, so for him to go top 3 I think he should have much higher offensive upside

 

[DueDiligence]

That’s a different scenario. I’m more than fine with a 70 point guy if he’s also a stud defensively. From what I understand, stutzle is not, so for him to go top 3 I think he should have much higher offensive upside

Guys can develop into a strong 2 way player. Easier to learn how to defend than score.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

I have trouble believing LA will pass on that.

Who knows? Of the ten teams Bob McKenzie interviewed, only five had him at #2 and two teams had him #6.

 

[Alfie11]

That’s a different scenario. I’m more than fine with a 70 point guy if he’s also a stud defensively. From what I understand, stutzle is not, so for him to go top 3 I think he should have much higher offensive upside

A lot of the reasoning why guys go higher is not just potential but likelihood of reaching that potential. That's why you get guys like Stone and Hoffman go later. It's not like they became skilled in their 20s. They always had skill but it was thought their limitations meant it wasn't likely to translate in the NHL. Guys like Stutzle are considered prime picks because they have elite skill and it's likely to translate in the NHL.

As others have mentioned 70 points is a lot. Only the top guys get 90+ points and the players in this draft are considered to be Tavares level and not McDavid level.

Everyone hopes for the best but to expect guys to be top 10 scorers at the 3 or 5th slot is asking too much.