NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - Part IX

[Golden_Jet]

Maybe I’ll rewatch the CHL top prospects game tonight

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Perfetti beats him by what, a mere inch? Personally cannot justify Perfetti ahead of Rossi based on that 1-inch difference.

Perfetti blew Rossi out of the water in same age year. That means a lot to me

 

[Cosmix]

Perfetti on average is ranked higher than rossi. I think he is pretty underrated here.

I was thinking the same thing until i read the comments about Rossi being selected by the coaches for so many positive things. That changed my view of him, elevating Rossi above Perfetti

 

[Golden_Jet]

Perfetti blew Rossi out of the water in same age year. That means a lot to me

In what sense,

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Perfetti blew Rossi out of the water in same age year. That means a lot to me

Rossi is 100 days older than Perfetti .. that's less than 1/3rd of a year. I would not make too much of that.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

In what sense,

In production. 1.82 PPG compared to 1.23

that doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to become better, but that does mean a lot in my evaluations of them

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Rossi is 100 days older than Perfetti .. that's less than 1/3rd of a year. I would not make too much of that.

It’s not about age it’s about developmental age. Rossi has one more year of CHL eligibility, Perfetti has two. Perfettis current season should be compared to Rossi’s previous season

 

[Sensinitis]

25% chance at Lafreniere

damn straight!

 

[Sweatred]

It’s not about age it’s about developmental age. Rossi has one more year of CHL eligibility, Perfetti has two. Perfettis current season should be compared to Rossi’s previous season

Rossi = Thomson if he gets drafted last year.

 

[Sweatred]

Maybe I’ll rewatch the CHL top prospects game tonight

I re watched it a couple nights ago... Byfield floating, avoiding contact, and not overly creative ...

 

[Golden_Jet]

So if Perfetti is born 1 day earlier, then he also has 1 year eligibility.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

So if Perfetti is born 1 day earlier, then he also has 1 year eligibility.

But he wasn’t , so...

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

It’s not about age it’s about developmental age. Rossi has one more year of CHL eligibility, Perfetti has two. Perfettis current season should be compared to Rossi’s previous season

02 (by 1 day) vs 01 I know that still makes him an 02. Last year was Rossi 1st year over here so I am not sure the comparison works with all the variables. Its a shallow argument. I like Perfetti. Tremendously skilled blue line in player. I think Rossi has a more mature complete game. I like Perfetti's offense. People are critical of Rossi's skating.. Perfetti has skating issues as well. Anyway If they go one or the other I would not mind I like both players. I won't use birthdays to put Byfield over Lafreniere and I wont for these two.. There are a lot of late Birthdates in this draft in the top 20.

Name	League	Pos	Shoots	DoB	DfC
Alexis Lafreniere	QMJHL	LW	L	11-Oct-01	26
Marco Rossi	OHL	C	L	23-Sep-01	8
Anton Lundell	Liiga	C	L	3-Oct-01	18
Jack Quinn	OHL	RW	R	19-Sep-01	4
Rodion Amirov	KHL	LW	L	2-Oct-01	17
Noel Gunler	SHL	RW/LW	R	7-Oct-01	22
Dylan Holloway	NCAA	F	L	23-Sep-01	8
Connor Zary	WHL	C	L	25-Sep-01	10
Braden Schneider	WHL	D	R	20-Sep-01	5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The last column is days from Draft Cutoff Date

 

[Laphroaig]

1. Alexis Lafrenière
Superstar winger. Tantalizing blend of skill, compete level and power.

2. Tim Stutzle
Electric hands, electric feet, electric vision with some holes in his game (shot, inconsistent defensive zone play).

3. Lucas Raymond
Has a fair shot at being the best player to come out of this draft when it's all said and done. Absolute two-way horse. Pro ready game. Pro ready skills. Just edged by Stutzle due to projected positions.

4. Quinton Byfield
Not the 2nd best player in the draft currently. Still has a higher upside than anyone in it.

5. Anton Lundell
Huge brain. Plays a pro game. Has all the skill and all the room to grow into a Kopitar type or plateau as a M. Koivu type. Guaranteed center at the next level.

6. Jamie Drysdale
The lack of outstanding A+ defensemen in this draft inflates his value. Still a fantastic player. If not an A+, an easy A.

7. Alexander Holtz
Best sniper in the draft. Easy 30 goals scorer at the next level. Question is: ''how much more?''.

8. Marco Rossi
If he was 6ft2, he would be a top 5 pick. Unfortunately, teams don't win with 5ft10 first line centers and his game doesn't quite translate to the wing.

9. Cole Perfetti
If hands and offensive abilities were all that mattered, he'd be a top 3 pick. Absolute wizard with the puck.

10. Connor Zary
Based on his consensus ranking, this is the one player that people are going to look back at and wonder how he went so low. Plays the game right, with a surprising amount of bite. No clear weakness with limitless room to grow. Guaranteed top 6 center at the next level.

11. Jack Quinn
Great player. Great urgency and power to his game. Great shot arsenal. A la Taylor Hall, a bit too north south to consistently control the pace of the game.

12. Jake Sanderson
Not a dud in that department, but lacks the puck moving ability to be a top 10 pick. Great skating & great defending #2/3 at the next level.

13. Yaroslav Askarov
Franchise potential with all the risks associated with picking a goaltender in the first round.

14. Dawson Mercer
Lethal top 6 power forward at the next level.

15. Dylan Holloway
The upside to be a complete top 6 power forward is there. The lack of production is concerning. Needs to catch up and start dictating the pace of the game, which he's very capable of. One of those players that still has a spot in a bottom 6 if he doesn't pan out in the top 6.

16. Hendrix Lapierre
Ultimate wildcard in the draft. Has top 10 talent and first line playmaking center upside, but comes with a very concerning injury history.

17. Seth Jarvis
Skill and will are not in question. Size and ability to translate at the next level are.

18. Justin Barron
Jaw dropping skating ability for his size. Outstanding defender. Huge rhd. Not a pure offense producer, but can hold his own on the cycle in the opposition's zone and walk the line just fine. Borderline top pairing defensemen if he pans out. Big IF though.

19. William Villeneuve
Safest bet to become a top 4D beside Drysdale and Sanderson IMO. Jeremie Poirier gets all the attention in Saint-John for his skating, hands and skills, but I've never seen a bigger defensive wreck than that guy. Makes Ryan Merkley look like prime Ryan Suter. For all the acclaim Poirier gets for his offensive game, it's Villeneuve that led the team and the CHL in scoring as a draft eligible D. And he did it without cheating. Steady and smart defender. Underrated passer. Eager to shoot. Skating could improve.

20. Braden Schneider
Assertive, almost aggressive. Physical beyond belief. Good defender. Good skater. Good puck handler. Good shooter. Surefire NHLer. Question is: ''which skill will become great to make him more than a borderline top 4 defenseman and a guaranteed bottom pairing guy?''.

21. Rodion Amirov
This guy can really play. At both ends of the ice too. Relative to the amount of chances he gets, he just needs to figure out how to consistently finish. Very nice, versatile top 9 winger a team is going to get here.

22. Jacob Perreault
Biggest enigma of the draft. Easy top 10 offensive talent. Easy top 5 shooter. Yet, you come out of watching him play wondering if he's going to be a great top 6 producer in NHL or an AHL superstar. Steal of the draft if he puts it all together.

23. Mavrik Bourke
Consistently took over games for Shawinigan. Did it all and gave it all for his team. By far the best talent on his squad as a first time draft eligible player.

24. Lukas Reichel
Produced extremely well in a men's league as a teenager. More complete and rounded player than his counterparts Stutzle and Peterka.

25. JJ Peterka
Bull in the China shop type with an impressive ability to finish. I slightly prefer Reichel's cerebral/polished style, but both are top 15 picks in any other draft.

26. Noel Gunler
Good offensive player. Great shot, slight delay on it's release. Not caught quite in on the hype.

27. Tyson Foerster
Some team is going to be very, very happy to get a potential top 6 center at the end of the first round.

28. Ryan O'Rourke
I.n.T.a.N.g.I.B.l.e.S.

29. Jake Neighbours
Unapologetic chaos every time he hits the ice. Skates, hits, rattles, scores. Quite the sight to behold.

30. Kaiden Guhle
At times inconsistent and borderline questionable, but the tools to become a shutdown/matchup two-way D are undeniably there.

31. Ridly Greig
Another highly skilled sh*t disturber with lots and lots of room to grow.


Honorable Mentions:

Jeremie Poirier
Superstar if he puts 75% effort in his own end. Right now it's at about 12% and it's embarrassing to watch.

Alexander Pashin
Classic russian enigma with all the skill in the word, but question marks surrounding his skating and diminutive size. Huge boom or bust potential.

Yan Kuznestov
Impressive achievement for a draft eligible to play in the NCAA. Prototypical big defensive defenseman.

William Wallinder
Non-existent translatable offense at the next level. Still. 6ft4 project that skates and defends very well for his age.

Good post. The only thing I'm going to take exception with is your contention that teams can't win with a top line 5'10" centre. Bobby Clarke jumped into my mind immediately and I'm sure there are numerous others. I mean Crosby's only 5'11".

 

[Hale The Villain]

If Perfetti is born 1 day earlier in 2001 instead of in 2002, he would have been drafted to the OHL in 2017 instead of 2018 and would be already finished his 3rd OHL season. Like Rossi, he would only need to play one more year in the OHL before being eligible for the AHL, and like Rossi only would have one more year of WJC eligiblity before he's considered a 20YR old (as next year will be Rossi's 19YR old year).

Rossi is a 2001-born like other top OHL scorers like McMichael, Tomasino, Rees, etc... He just gets drafted in 2020 with 2002-borns because of an arbitrary rule the NHL put in place to prevent minors (non-adults) entering NHL training camps and making a professional league. He was in his 17YR old season last year, which is the same development year Perfetti is in now.

So yes Perfetti significantly out-produced Rossi in the same development year. However, Rossi's 18YR old year production is insane and there's good reason to think that Perfetti won't be able to match it, as only a very limited number of OHLers in the last two decades have been able to do it.

 

[Micklebot]

It’s not about age it’s about developmental age. Rossi has one more year of CHL eligibility, Perfetti has two. Perfettis current season should be compared to Rossi’s previous season

Part of the problem is you also have to account for the relative age effect; Perfetti is the oldest kid in his birth year which has a well established advantage in minor sports. Rossi on the other hand is at the opposite end in the 4th quarter relative to his peers.

There are physiological (physical and cognitive development) as well as sytemic advantages (kids with early year bdays tend to be put in bigger roles because they are more mature, they often start playing competitive sports younger because of their relative physical development too) to being born early in the season when it comes to minor sports. It's not as easy as just comparing developmental year and acting like they are on even grounds.

 

[GCK]

Perfetti blew Rossi out of the water in same age year. That means a lot to me

It’s comparing apples to oranges. Rossi is 3 months older and I doubt the Austrian and Swiss systems offer the same level of competition, not to mention Rossi had to adjust to the OHL and smaller ice. I’ll take Rossi all day over Perfetti.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

Honestly, scout the guys that could go 4-6.

Rossi, Perfetti, Raymond, etc.

The sky isn’t going to fall if we end up with two of them. Imagine going into last season knowing we end up with (likely) two top 5 picks.

Sky might not fall, but the difference between picking say, 1 and 2 or 3, or 5 and 6, could be the difference between being a cup contender or a multiple cup winner.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

It’s comparing apples to oranges. Rossi is 3 months older and I doubt the Austrian and Swiss systems offer the same level of competition, not to mention Rossi had to adjust to the OHL and smaller ice. I’ll take Rossi all day over Perfetti.

Rossi played parts of the previous year in a men's league that would be considered Superior to the CHL

As I said i have these two players close in rankings, comparing their age equivalent seasons is just one of the process

another thing to consider for this year alone is the quality of teammates. The 67s had six players over 75 points and Sagjnaw had only 3

 

[guyzeur]

Good post. The only thing I'm going to take exception with is your contention that teams can't win with a top line 5'10" centre. Bobby Clarke jumped into my mind immediately and I'm sure there are numerous others. I mean Crosby's only 5'11".

Facts: 2019 avg: 6 1" 200lbs vs 1975 avg: 6' 178 lbs 1975
Rossi is 5 9" 187 (probably 195 by the time he's 25 - same height and size as Dale Hunter by the way) vs Bobby Clarke 5 10" 176lbs

 

[GCK]

Rossi played parts of the previous year in a men's league that would be considered Superior to the CHL

As I said i have these two players close in rankings, comparing their age equivalent seasons is just one of the process

another thing to consider for this year alone is the quality of teammates. The 67s had six players over 75 points and Sagjnaw had only 3

Rossi played 18 games in the second tier Swiss league. I’ll stick to my thinking that Perfetti’svlevel of competition prior to the OHL prepared him at least as well as Rossi!s.

 

[BondraTime]

Agreed. Maybe Sanderson since he is magically creeping up without games played (please Dorion don't pick him top 6 overall). Good thing there is no rush to play any of the selected 2020 guys, but it's a bonus if we pick an NHL ready guy or two.

Sanderson was #9 on McKenzie’s list in January (the one that actually matters), and was as high as 6 by some scouts. At the time of that ranking, he had 15 points in 34 games. Since that list came out he put up 14 points in 13 games, of course that would move him up, and there shouldn’t be anything surprising about it.

There’s nothing magical about it, and you keep bringing that up.

 

[Micklebot]

Sanderson was #9 on McKenzie’s list in January (the one that actually matters), and was as high as 6 by some scouts. At the time of that ranking, he had 15 points in 34 games. Since that list came out he put up 14 points in 13 games, of course that would move him up, and there shouldn’t be anything surprising about it.

There’s nothing magical about it, and you keep bringing that up.

It's pretty wild to see splits like that.

A lot of those pts (7 of them) came in the 4 games against international teams, not sure if that's typical but those games weren't blowouts or anything.

I imagine those international games get an increase presence of scouts though, so it makes it even a little more understandable why scouts moved him up their lists.

 

[BondraTime]

It's pretty wild to see splits like that.

A lot of those pts (7 of them) came in the 4 games against international teams, not sure if that's typical but those games weren't blowouts or anything.

I imagine those international games get an increase presence of scouts though, so it makes it even a little more understandable why scouts moved him up their lists.

He played those same 4 teams in November and had 1 goal in 4 games, his game went to another level after Christmas. In that time frame the only guy to outscore him was Bordeleau, an offensive forward ranked near the end of the 1st, and he had 15 points compared to Sandersons 14.

Sanderson moved up from 16 to 9 from preseason to midseason, before he took his game to another level. This rise isn't out of nowhere, he's been rising all year. I'm confused by that notion being spread around.

 

[armani]

Sanderson was #9 on McKenzie’s list in January (the one that actually matters), and was as high as 6 by some scouts. At the time of that ranking, he had 15 points in 34 games. Since that list came out he put up 14 points in 13 games, of course that would move him up, and there shouldn’t be anything surprising about it.

There’s nothing magical about it, and you keep bringing that up.

I heard you about his rise since January, he is still not worth spending either of Sens top picks on him. Some chatter about Sens scouting staff liking this kid - and I hope that's them doing their due diligence. He is not in my top 10 but in my chat with Larry Fisher that I posted here he also mentions the scouting noise vs. online noise regarding his rise. Might very well be a top-2 defenceman, as I have maintained. However, the risk is not worth by-passing players like Rossi, Perfetti, Drysdale, or Holz. While Sanderson was killing it since January, those others were also doing their thing during that period. Late riser, if we go by BM's midterm ranking at 9, how much more could he have improved his stock to bump off those other kids? I can see another team covet him over those guys if they are drafting on need, the Sens need to maximize the returns with best player/centre available.