NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART IV

[MatchesMalone]

This gives complete access to all USHL, NAHL, AJHL games among others. USNTDP U18 could be a team to check out as there will be a large number of high quality prospects available in the middle rounds.

Holy shit. Sick find man.

 

[ijif]

Anyone who prefers Jake Sanderson to Jamie Drysdale? I think I'd still take Drysdale, but it's like splitting hairs. I thought Sanderson might be able to put himself over at the U18s, but now we just have to go with what we know.

I don't think I can justify selecting Sanderson over Drysdale. Sanderson did look good at the U-18s, but Drysdale's season, in terms of statistics, is on a different level than Sanderson's season.

One must really believe in their eye-test to select Sanderson over Drysdale, and that is fine, but for me, these two are close enough in eye-test where I will take the player with better statistics.

I have seen other people mention this, and I am not fully committed to the idea, but the more that I think about it, the more I think the defenders in this draft are getting overrated. I see a lot of safe but unspectacular defenders, at least at the top of the draft, and I guess I wonder how much value those players bring to a team.

 

[DrSense]

I don't think I can justify selecting Sanderson over Drysdale. Sanderson did look good at the U-18s, but Drysdale's season, in terms of statistics, is on a different level than Sanderson's season.

.

Drysdale's stats are not really on another level. Scoring in the USHL is not easy - not too many draft eligibles light it up as none are really more than a PPG. And playing on a U18 team, your team is typically 2 years younger than the USHL teams (typically dominated by 20 year olds). And Drysdale stats are really good, but not super elite (not at Byram's level last year, for instance). Better than Sanderson's, but not miles apart.

I do think Drysdale is the natural selection, in particular as a right handed RD which are generally more sought after. That's who I'd like us to take. But Sanderson has done really well internationally, is a better skater than pretty much ever d-man and a bigger frame. He is a riser and I wouldn't be shocked to see him taken ahead of Drysdale. Wouldn't bet on it, but the draft has taught us this is totally plausible.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Holy shit. Sick find man.

You might also want to look into OBS Studio if you are interested in recording clips. I have been trying to compile some clips of players I think are worth drafting and if I can put together something interesting I might post it. Here is the link for OBS Studio, it is free to use and allows you to record your screen display.
Open Broadcaster Software | OBS

 

[ijif]

Drysdale's stats are not really on another level. Scoring in the USHL is not easy - not too many draft eligibles light it up as none are really more than a PPG. And playing on a U18 team, your team is typically 2 years younger than the USHL teams (typically dominated by 20 year olds). And Drysdale stats are really good, but not super elite (not at Byram's level last year, for instance). Better than Sanderson's, but not miles apart.

I do think Drysdale is the natural selection, in particular as a right handed RD which are generally more sought after. That's who I'd like us to take. But Sanderson has done really well internationally, is a better skater than pretty much ever d-man and a bigger frame. He is a riser and I wouldn't be shocked to see him taken ahead of Drysdale. Wouldn't bet on it, but the draft has taught us this is totally plausible.

The data I have seen suggests that Drysdale has a statistical profile that is similar to that of other defenceman taken in the top 10 in previous drafts, and Sanderson does not. If that is not on another level to you, that is fine. Either way, Drysdale clearly had a superior statistical season.

I agree that Byram had a better draft year than Drysdale.

 

[MatchesMalone]

I don't think I can justify selecting Sanderson over Drysdale. Sanderson did look good at the U-18s, but Drysdale's season, in terms of statistics, is on a different level than Sanderson's season.

One must really believe in their eye-test to select Sanderson over Drysdale, and that is fine, but for me, these two are close enough in eye-test where I will take the player with better statistics.

I have seen other people mention this, and I am not fully committed to the idea, but the more that I think about it, the more I think the defenders in this draft are getting overrated. I see a lot of safe but unspectacular defenders, at least at the top of the draft, and I guess I wonder how much value those players bring to a team.

Well, I forget who now, but somebody pointed out that as a program focused primarily on development, the NTDP rolls their lines better than any junior or pro team top prospects are playing for. It seems that Sanderson rarely saw much more than 20 mins per game. This may have some impact on his numbers, which are similar to some other NHL stars who have come through the program - almost identical to McAvoy's.

There is also this: 2020 Draft: Sanderson could rank among best-ever defensemen at NTDP

The NTDP's defense coach over the past nine seasons says Sanderson is top three he's seen come through, from a group that includes Seth Jones, McAvoy, Werenski, Hanifin and Cam York.

While I appreciate the value of stats for evaluating prospects, I prefer my own eye test over both stats and media scouting services. Not because I think I'm so great at it, but it's just like growing your own vegetables or catching your own fish vs buying store-bought. It's more rewarding and something you can stand behind.

As I said after the winter Five Nations, I've been a big fan of Sanderson all year, but that was the first time I started to question if he might be better than Drysdale. I thought I'd use the U18s to settle the question. For now I still have Drysdale ahead, but I'm gonna watch some games from this site Rafi posted, and maybe go back and watch one or two more of Drysdale from international play, and then make a final decision.

Regarding the unspectacularness of a guy like Sanderson, the one thing there's no denying is his skating gives him an element of dynamism. Rough comparisons I'd use would be Jake Trouba, Cam Fowler, or best-case scenario, Roman Josi.

 

[Altimus]

assuming we get two top end forwards in our two first picks, with the Islanders pick should we be targeting a dman, Looks like Guhle(left shot) and Schneider(right shot) are within that area. ignoring BPA do we draft a partner for Chabot? I mean maybe all forwards in the first round and all dmen in the second. This draft is just killing me.

 

[MatchesMalone]

assuming we get two top end forwards in our two first picks, with the Islanders pick should we be targeting a dman, Looks like Guhle(left shot) and Schneider(right shot) are within that area. ignoring BPA do we draft a partner for Chabot? I mean maybe all forwards in the first round and all dmen in the second. This draft is just killing me.

Oh gosh no. This draft is absolutely not the place to be specifically looking for a partner for Chabot. There will be other opportunities for that, whether it's through trade or prospects we already have, or next year's draft - you know who could make a perfect partner for Chabot? Brandt Clarke.

I'm not a fan of Schneider. His ceiling is a second pair D who kills penalties and matches against other team's top players, a la Cody Ceci. I know the connotations there, but I don't mean that to be as negative as it sounds; I never hated Ceci the way most Sens fans did. But there are similarities there. Right shots, similar size, good defensive defenseman but both have a lot of trouble handling the puck under pressure.

What other RD options are there high in the draft besides Drysdale? Helge Grans could be really good, but there's some risk there. Probably not an ideal partner for Chabot. Shakir Mukhamadullin actually might be an excellent partner for Chabot; a big, strong defenseman who can skate and shoot the puck. Easily the best defensive defenseman in the draft for my money. Not the best puck-handler, but he's very calm and poised and able to make simple plays out of danger very effectively. Only thing is, he's a left shot, but he primarily plays the right side in Russia and I think he could handle playing his off-side just fine in the NHL.

 

[bert]

Quinn's average ranking is around 17 overall, and with guys like Zary, Amirov, Mercer, Holloway, Gunler and Jarvis available in that range, I'd rather have one of those guys AND keep two 2nds, than overpay for Quinn. And I really like Quinn.

If Rossi were around at #9 or #10, that is the kind of bold move I'd move #17 and two 2nds for. The draft is always dynamic and I think people will once again be surprised how #4-12 shake out - will be some major surprises in terms of who drops to #10 or beyond. Just like Seider last year (average rank was 20 or so and went 6th I think).

After watching each player alot this year id hsve a hard time justifying the price for Rossi and not Quinn. Quinn has more high end scoring ability. I believe the sens have them as the same level prospect. Quinn easily has top 10 talent in just about any draft he is frankly a way better prospect than Mercer, Zary or Gunler. Only reason he isnt ranked higher is the fact he has more or less come out of no where and not enough scouts have had the chance to watch him so people say its because of his situation or his age of being a late. Which simply isnt accurate he drives the offense in Ottawa and this is only his second year in the OHL he is a late bloomer physically.

I find it interesting and honestly changes my opinion on if someone can evaluate prospects when i read comments when i read people say Rossi's skillset translates better to the NHL than Quinns. Its the opposite.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

if we dont snag a center in the first round i would like to see pick 33 spent on khusnutdinov

 

[ijif]

Well, I forget who now, but somebody pointed out that as a program focused primarily on development, the NTDP rolls their lines better than any junior or pro team top prospects are playing for. It seems that Sanderson rarely saw much more than 20 mins per game. This may have some impact on his numbers, which are similar to some other NHL stars who have come through the program - almost identical to McAvoy's.

There is also this: 2020 Draft: Sanderson could rank among best-ever defensemen at NTDP

The NTDP's defense coach over the past nine seasons says Sanderson is top three he's seen come through, from a group that includes Seth Jones, McAvoy, Werenski, Hanifin and Cam York.

While I appreciate the value of stats for evaluating prospects, I prefer my own eye test over both stats and media scouting services. Not because I think I'm so great at it, but it's just like growing your own vegetables or catching your own fish vs buying store-bought. It's more rewarding and something you can stand behind.

As I said after the winter Five Nations, I've been a big fan of Sanderson all year, but that was the first time I started to question if he might be better than Drysdale. I thought I'd use the U18s to settle the question. For now I still have Drysdale ahead, but I'm gonna watch some games from this site Rafi posted, and maybe go back and watch one or two more of Drysdale from international play, and then make a final decision.

Regarding the unspectacularness of a guy like Sanderson, the one thing there's no denying is his skating gives him an element of dynamism. Rough comparisons I'd use would be Jake Trouba, Cam Fowler, or best-case scenario, Roman Josi.

Yes, McAvoy and Sanderson have very similar numbers, but both still lag behind defenders that generally get taken in the top 10. Of course, they are both known for more than offensive impact, so both are still solid picks in the top half of the first round.

Your simile is terrible, no offence. You don't even need a comparative device because what you are doing can be easily explained in its own domain as preferring to do pure labour instead of using tools to help with the labour because...well, there really is no logically good reason.

To be very clear, I have plenty of players higher than the stats would indicate, but when the eye-test is close, I will take the player with the better statistics.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I like Justin Barron (RD) as a possibility with the Isles pick. He had a tougher year and battled a significant illness/injury with a blood clot. He looked really promising the previous year and had a terrific 2018 Hlinka tournament. He has dropped in the rankings from early in the year where he was a fringe top 10.

Some info on him here with some of those Hlinka highlights. https://thehockeywriters.com/justin-barron-2020-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/

Good size .. 6'2 195 , Good mobility , Good shot, Can play physical

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Oh gosh no. This draft is absolutely not the place to be specifically looking for a partner for Chabot. There will be other opportunities for that, whether it's through trade or prospects we already have, or next year's draft - you know who could make a perfect partner for Chabot? Brandt Clarke.

I'm not a fan of Schneider. His ceiling is a second pair D who kills penalties and matches against other team's top players, a la Cody Ceci. I know the connotations there, but I don't mean that to be as negative as it sounds; I never hated Ceci the way most Sens fans did. But there are similarities there. Right shots, similar size, good defensive defenseman but both have a lot of trouble handling the puck under pressure.

What other RD options are there high in the draft besides Drysdale? Helge Grans could be really good, but there's some risk there. Probably not an ideal partner for Chabot. Shakir Mukhamadullin actually might be an excellent partner for Chabot; a big, strong defenseman who can skate and shoot the puck. Easily the best defensive defenseman in the draft for my money. Not the best puck-handler, but he's very calm and poised and able to make simple plays out of danger very effectively. Only thing is, he's a left shot, but he primarily plays the right side in Russia and I think he could handle playing his off-side just fine in the NHL.

agreed like ive said we got 3 potential stud d men next year to pick from probably.

 

[TkachukNorris79]

I like Justin Barron (RD) as a possibility with the Isles pick. He had a tougher year and battled a significant illness/injury with a blood clot. He looked really promising the previous year and had a terrific 2018 Hlinka tournament. He has dropped in the rankings from early in the year where he was a fringe top 10.

Some info on him here with some of those Hlinka highlights. https://thehockeywriters.com/justin-barron-2020-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/

Good size .. 6'2 195 , Good mobility , Good shot, Can play physical

I'm a huge fan of Barron. Had a rough go this year getting diagnosed with a blood clot. Came back a few weeks ago but obviously didn't get to play much before the season got canned.

He's going to be a steal in this draft. A really good 2-3D imo. Would be a very good long-term partner for Brannstrom. In a couple years.

I'd easily use whatever draft capital it takes to move up from 33 and take him in the 20s if need be. He might even get to 33. He really shouldn't in my eyes though. He's a 15-25 guy at least.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Yes, McAvoy and Sanderson have very similar numbers, but both still lag behind defenders that generally get taken in the top 10. Of course, they are both known for more than offensive impact, so both are still solid picks in the top half of the first round.

Your simile is terrible, no offence. You don't even need a comparative device because what you are doing can be easily explained in its own domain as preferring to do pure labour instead of using tools to help with the labour because...well, there really is no logically good reason.

To be very clear, I have plenty of players higher than the stats would indicate, but when the eye-test is close, I will take the player with the better statistics.

Haha ok yeah it was a lame analogy, I certainly don't take offense. But what I do find objectionable is your comment that there is no logically good reason. I wouldn't disagree that there is no logically good reason, but I object to the insinuation that that makes it less worthwhile.

To tweak my analogy, people bow-hunt, despite the fact that more sophisticated weapons are available. People play Super Mario Bros without warps. I watch prospects and try to analyze and predict their success based, as much as possible, on my own assessment.

The way I look at it, if a person is actually aspiring to work as a pro scout, or in media or some such thing - or if you just enjoy numbers - then of course you should use all of the information at your disposal to try to be accurate. If you're just doing it for the sheer joy then focus on what you enjoy. For me that's not primarily stats. Two of my passions are hockey and philosophy. So beyond just watching the games, I love theorizing about what skills, styles, etc. are translatable, and how and why.

For myself, I would consider it a weakness of resolve to waver to statistics against my own judgement. I certainly don't expect you to agree with any of this. Just a different perspective to consider I guess.

 

[MatchesMalone]

I'm a huge fan of Barron. Had a rough go this year getting diagnosed with a blood clot. Came back a few weeks ago but obviously didn't get to play much before the season got canned.

He's going to be a steal in this draft. A really good 2-3D imo. Would be a very good long-term partner for Brannstrom. In a couple years.

I'd easily use whatever draft capital it takes to move up from 33 and take him in the 20s if need be. He might even get to 33. He really shouldn't in my eyes though. He's a 15-25 guy at least.

I was never a big fan. Always saw him as a safe but pretty average jack-of-all-trades who likely tops out as a 4/5 on a good team. But now that he is likely to be falling, I'd actually love to take him if it's toward the end of the first round or later. Agreed he could be a solid partner for Brännström, and given the late birthday and pro-style game, it could be sooner rather than later.

 

[MatchesMalone]

if we dont snag a center in the first round i would like to see pick 33 spent on khusnutdinov

I've been starting to get the feeling he's not going to fall outside the first round.

 

[bert]

I was never a big fan. Always saw him as a safe but pretty average jack-of-all-trades who likely tops out as a 4/5 on a good team. But now that he is likely to be falling, I'd actually love to take him if it's toward the end of the first round or later. Agreed he could be a solid partner for Brännström, and given the late birthday and pro-style game, it could be sooner rather than later.

Trent Mann will have had a good look at him given who he plays for so if he saw something they likely target him with one of their 2nds.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

After watching each player alot this year id hsve a hard time justifying the price for Rossi and not Quinn. Quinn has more high end scoring ability. I believe the sens have them as the same level prospect. Quinn easily has top 10 talent in just about any draft he is frankly a way better prospect than Mercer, Zary or Gunler. Only reason he isnt ranked higher is the fact he has more or less come out of no where and not enough scouts have had the chance to watch him so people say its because of his situation or his age of being a late. Which simply isnt accurate he drives the offense in Ottawa and this is only his second year in the OHL he is a late bloomer physically.

I find it interesting and honestly changes my opinion on if someone can evaluate prospects when i read comments when i read people say Rossi's skillset translates better to the NHL than Quinns. Its the opposite.

I'm not disputing your opinion as I haven't seen enough of either player, but would that mean you think nobody in the world can evaluate prospects since I have literally never seen any rankings (from reputable sources) that have Quinn over Rossi? I think it's pretty clear that people think Rossi is the superior prospect whose skillset translates better.

 

[Alex1234]

The data I have seen suggests that Drysdale has a statistical profile that is similar to that of other defenceman taken in the top 10 in previous drafts, and Sanderson does not. If that is not on another level to you, that is fine. Either way, Drysdale clearly had a superior statistical season.

I agree that Byram had a better draft year than Drysdale.

The Giants were a much better team last year
Byram stats have level a bit this year compare to last because of it
Dont get me wrong he has still good stats but that fact has to be considered when analyzing Byram draft year

 

[bert]

I'm not disputing your opinion as I haven't seen enough of either player, but would that mean you think nobody in the world can evaluate prospects since I have literally never seen any rankings (from reputable sources) that have Quinn over Rossi? I think it's pretty clear that people think Rossi is the superior prospect whose skillset translates better.

Well most people havent watched them both very much. The sens have them ranked at the same point, I am sure they arent the only team. If you go through the Rossi thread on the prospects board many people question if his skill set will translate to the next level as an elite level scorer.

 

[OgieO]

I like Justin Barron (RD) as a possibility with the Isles pick. He had a tougher year and battled a significant illness/injury with a blood clot. He looked really promising the previous year and had a terrific 2018 Hlinka tournament. He has dropped in the rankings from early in the year where he was a fringe top 10.

Some info on him here with some of those Hlinka highlights. https://thehockeywriters.com/justin-barron-2020-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/

Good size .. 6'2 195 , Good mobility , Good shot, Can play physical

Justin Barron is such a great kid. The Mooseheads staff rave about his work ethic, professionalism and character. I didn't see him play much this year (for obvious reasons) so it's hard to know how to evaluate him - but a good chance someone gets a huge steal with him this year.

 

[DrSense]

After watching each player alot this year id hsve a hard time justifying the price for Rossi and not Quinn. Quinn has more high end scoring ability. I believe the sens have them as the same level prospect. Quinn easily has top 10 talent in just about any draft he is frankly a way better prospect than Mercer, Zary or Gunler. Only reason he isnt ranked higher is the fact he has more or less come out of no where and not enough scouts have had the chance to watch him so people say its because of his situation or his age of being a late. Which simply isnt accurate he drives the offense in Ottawa and this is only his second year in the OHL he is a late bloomer physically.

I find it interesting and honestly changes my opinion on if someone can evaluate prospects when i read comments when i read people say Rossi's skillset translates better to the NHL than Quinns. Its the opposite.

Anyone from a city that has watched a single prospect more than others, is basically a fan, not a scout. No disrepect, as I fall in the same boat, but you making a lot of statements of opinions that you seem to be positioning as fact. For instance, unless you have really watched Gunler as much as Quinn, you can't possibly make a statement like that, any more than Dorion would let his OHL scout opine about how Quinn is better than Gunler, if he hadn't watched Gunler.

I for one, have little doubt you have no idea who the Sens value most. If there is one thing I know from having followed the draft closely for several decades, fans on message boards such as you and I rarely know who the Sens covet. And I know several Sens staff and brass (and still guess wrong more often that not!).

One thing I do know. When the Sens likely pass on Rossi and Quinn and go with some other prospect we don't like as much at the time, within a few days, we'll all "come around" to liking the prospect more and more. It's like my annual draft routine, and that's even after nailing a few predictions along the way (still a brutal batting average).

 

[bert]

Anyone from a city that has watched a single prospect more than others, is basically a fan, not a scout. No disrepect, as I fall in the same boat, but you making a lot of statements of opinions that you seem to be positioning as fact. For instance, unless you have really watched Gunler as much as Quinn, you can't possibly make a statement like that, any more than Dorion would let his OHL scout opine about how Quinn is better than Gunler, if he hadn't watched Gunler.

I for one, have little doubt you have no idea who the Sens value most. If there is one thing I know from having followed the draft closely for several decades, fans on message boards such as you and I rarely know who the Sens covet. And I know several Sens staff and brass (and still guess wrong more often that not!).

One thing I do know. When the Sens likely pass on Rossi and Quinn and go with some other prospect we don't like as much at the time, within a few days, we'll all "come around" to liking the prospect more and more. It's like my annual draft routine, and that's even after nailing a few predictions along the way (still a brutal batting average).

I am going off what I have heard directly from scouts and the eye test has matched what they have said as well as the actual coaching staff on the 67's. Its not simply just my opinion. I am connected to a direct source on the team, I dont really care if you believe me or not.

 

[Agent Zub]

After watching each player alot this year id hsve a hard time justifying the price for Rossi and not Quinn. Quinn has more high end scoring ability. I believe the sens have them as the same level prospect. Quinn easily has top 10 talent in just about any draft he is frankly a way better prospect than Mercer, Zary or Gunler. Only reason he isnt ranked higher is the fact he has more or less come out of no where and not enough scouts have had the chance to watch him so people say its because of his situation or his age of being a late. Which simply isnt accurate he drives the offense in Ottawa and this is only his second year in the OHL he is a late bloomer physically.

I find it interesting and honestly changes my opinion on if someone can evaluate prospects when i read comments when i read people say Rossi's skillset translates better to the NHL than Quinns. Its the opposite.

Rossi quite clearly has better hockey IQ and vision though. Which I think most people would agree are the most important traits a hockey player can have.